what about today matchup MTSU and Troy...started at 4.5 now 7...so the system play is Troy?
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i appreciate the kind words from everyone, but lets just hope this pays off again this weekend first!
fadethepublic, i eliminated the NAVY/RICE game because the line movement only went 1/2 a point before shifting back... it moved like so: 13--->13.5--->12.5
* i only use the INITIAL movement of 1 pt in either direction
**if anyone has a better suggestion for cutoff point please provide reasoning... right now i watch the lines from SUN-->WED but i just randomly made that a rule b/c i figured the majority of public doesnt start looking at lines until THURS
also, like LT said, TCU/AIRFORCE is eliminated b/c TCU is ranked in top 25Comment -
Middle Tenn St +7 is the play you want tonight.Comment -
the line has moved 3 pts in fav of troy. I feel this is the play. so ur saying ur not going to play the game bc its a tv game? and if u are who are you playin?Comment -
I'm in on Troy because I think they are the better team but yeah I did have pretty good success in hoops with that strategyComment -
Caka,
I would suggest you have a set cutoff date and/or time for the plays because as you may already know, line can still move in either direction on thur, friday & sat. Also, I think you prolly be better off just playing w/MAC, conf usa & WAC. Just because the MWC has 2 ranked teams & Utah is always in the mix. To me, they are a BCS type school w/that many contenders. They get alot of public attn & line bets their way. Just a suggestion. Appreciate what you are trying to do for the guys on here. Just be prepared for some scrutiny & criticism from assholes who don't have a lick of common knowledge. GL to you and hope that you prosper. Aloha from Hawaii.Comment -
crash, i also like troy in this one and will play them in a teaser with nevada on thursday, but the reason i dont count it as a "system" play is because its the only game scheduled and its on tv which causes almost every gambler to bet it... think about if this same exact game were played this upcoming weekend... there wouldnt be NEARLY as much action on it, so who realyl knows if the 3 pt shift is accurate or notComment -
Marshall -4Comment -
Marshall is in C-USAComment -
c-usa is includedComment -
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ill be posting all the plays tonight and categorizing them by the varying line movement AFTER the initial 1 pt shift... that way we can see if certain trends are more likely to produce winnersComment -
Looking forward to it CakasComment -
do like. will read again!Comment -
good job on this !Comment -
i'll too say thank you OP!!!
also, i'll add that i have access to #1 service in world (or #1 service in recent past in world).... and they've started to complain about having so many games/teams to handicap.... so i think anyone who does this as hobby needs time-saving analytical methods, and this seems perfect (if it works). and problem is far, far more acute for NCAAB where i think this method might be even more useful.
yes, there is no doubt i'd rather get +18 at start of week than +16.5 later in week, but that necessitates i do work on 55 games on sunday before the lines come out. not to mention actually having insightful info.Comment -
Nice job Caka!Comment -
Okay, so after watching the lines from Sunday up until now I have come up with 9 plays that technically "qualify". I am posting these plays along with a few notes regarding the line movement. Hopefully, based on the movement and results of these plays we will be able to determine some type of trend over the next few weeks to make this "system" more accurate. Also, I'm going to try to "rank" these plays based on what I feel seems like a stronger play based on the movement. Then again, please understand that I dont know exactly why this works, it just does. The whole purpose to this thread is to find out why the "system" has been working so we can make it stronger!
Even though I bet all these plays equally, I will rank them from 3-1 stars (*), 3 being the strongest plays and so forth. Basically I feel a play is stronger based on it being more consistent movement. Please, understand that the strength of these plays is my personal opinion. If someone disagrees please let us all know why because I would appreciate an outside opinion.
Also, I placed theses wagers using SPORTSBETTING.COM (although the movement is from PINNACLE). You will notice I bought pts in some cases, I just did this as a personal preference, but I will run the results of this weekend as if I did NOT buy any pts)
First the picks/ranks:
***KENT +6
***MARSHALL -4
***AKRON +4.5
***UTAH -6.5
**IDAHO +3
**TEMPLE -13
**UTAH ST -13
**CENTRAL MICH -22 (bought 1pt ---> -21)
*TOLEDO -7.5 (bought .5pt---> -7)
KENT/BowlingGreen (Open KENT +6.5): This line quickly jumped 1 point in the first day to (+5.5), then another 1.5pts to (+4) and has consistently continued to drop... holding now at (+3.5).
MARSHALL/Tulane (Open Marshall -3): This line took 1.5 days to see the 1st movement of 1/2pt to (-3.5). After 2 days, the line moved another 1/2pt to (-4). It had held ever since.
AKRON/Ohio (Open AKRON +5): This line has been very straight forward much like Marshall/Tulane. Line moved 1pt after one day (5--> 4.5--> 4) before holding firm for 2 days.
UTAH/ColoradoST (Open UTAH -6.5): Again, very consistent, moved 1/2pt in first day (-7), then another 1/2 pt the following day (-7.5).
IDAHO/SanJoseST (Open IDAHO +4): This line shifted 1/2 pt after 1 day (+3.5), and another 1/2 point after 2 days (+3). This line held at (+3) for about 5 hours before moving back 1/2 pt and holding at (+3.5).
TEMPLE/BallST (Open TEMPLE -13): This line first moved up 1/2pt (-13.5) in the first 20 min of opening. Then another 1/2pt 10 min later (-14). It held firm for one full day before dropping down 1/2pt to (13.5) and holding.
UTAHST/NewMexicoST (Open UTAHST -10.5): The line movement on this game started out looking very strong and consistent. It quickly jumped 1pt w/in 10min of opening, and 3pts within 30 min of opening to (-13.5). This line held for 2 days until dropping to (-12) and holding.
C.MICHIGAN/E.Michigan (Open CMU -21): This line moved 1.5 pts in the first 20min after open to (-22.5). This held for about 1/2 a day then dropped back 1pt down to (21.5), before then again jumping up 1pt again to (-22.5) and holding.
TOLEDO/W.Michigan (Open TOLEDO -7.5): This line moved 1 pt after the first day (-8.5) and help for about 1 day before dropping back 1pt to the ORIGINAL opening line (-7.5) 1 day later and holding.Comment -
cakas, still love your theory.... but haven't read the entire thread. is any half-point movement off the opener good for a play?? or are we doing an entire point??.... also, i noticed a bunch have moved alot, so you really have to jump in at the right time, as i know you know.
anyone know how to track the O/U openers? is the sbrodd (sp?) good for that??Comment -
I decided on one FULL pt b/c it is a strong sign that A LOT of EARLY action was put on one side. And yes, sbrodds.com is great, it shows up to the second updates. I literally watch it all day. Also, wagertracker.com does a decent job too and shows the shifts in a nice graph form. Good for visualizing the movement.Comment -
cakas, thanks for response. i never really got into this type of analysis even though i see tons of people talk about square/sharps/movement. your thread has single-handedly piqued my interest in it, and now i will track those sites too .
BTW, as someone else (and me) mentioned earlier, O/U can be much softer than point spread. someone should figure out a system there. i basically just look at statfox.com for 2 lower scoring teams playing each other without a ridiculously low O/U (although even that's usually OK in my opinion, just not great)... or just play vandy UNDER
..... i also look at offensive and defensive rankings. look for teams with weak O/strong D or vice versa, although arguably alot of that should show up in past scores.......... i notice most of the free models i see on internet that track their performance do much, much better on O/U
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thanks for ur input, although im not quite sure O/U really apply to this due to the fact that the underlying principle to this is that im trusting the "sharps" knowledge of the matchup. i am assuming for a drastic (1pt) line movement to occur within 2 days if the line opening that the "sharps" know something about who is more likely to covercakas, thanks for response. i never really got into this type of analysis even though i see tons of people talk about square/sharps/movement. your thread has single-handedly piqued my interest in it, and now i will track those sites too .
BTW, as someone else (and me) mentioned earlier, O/U can be much softer than point spread. someone should figure out a system there. i basically just look at statfox.com for 2 lower scoring teams playing each other without a ridiculously low O/U (although even that's usually OK in my opinion, just not great)... or just play vandy UNDER..... i also look at offensive and defensive rankings. look for teams with weak O/strong D or vice versa, although arguably alot of that should show up in past scores.......... i notice most of the free models i see on internet that track their performance do much, much better on O/UComment -
One more,
**FLAInt -4: Line opened at -3 and moved 1/2pt per day consistently. Hit -4 yesterday (Wednesday)Comment -
Cakas: It looks like on the Kent, Utah, and Temple games you were able to get the opening day lines. How did you achieve this if your strategy is to wait for the movement until you bet and all lines moved pretty steadily from the open? Not doubting you, just wondering if you look for slow moving books after you see the initial move or what. Your strategy sounds interesting as is, but if you can wait for the move and then somehow get the original line, then it looks really good.Comment -
good luckComment -
I'm new here and first and foremost I want to say this is a great site and I think the members for the most part are very knowledgeable and helpful, post very intersting topics and have well-thought opinions...so Thank you all,I'm learning a lot!!!!
I also appreciate the fact that someone took the time to post this for all to consider. THANK-YOU VERY MUCH Caka!!!
Not to flame anybody and I may be miss-reading something in the responses but it appears that some people think that the lines being set by the bookmakers are done so with the thought that the likelihood of a team winning/losing is by a certain amount of points. The lines are set based on what the bookies think will draw equal (1/2 the money on one team, 1/2 on the other..optimum) So the fact that a line is set on team X has nothing to do with it being wrong if team X is favoured by 12 and then moves to 15 and they actually lose the game by 14 points. All it means is that the bookie expects that 50% of the people would bet team X at 12...when it moves to 15 it means that they were wrong in anticipating how evenly (50/50) the money would be bet and they needed more people attracted to the dog. I know my post is stating the obvious but I think it needed to be said again. Having said all that, there are betting sydicates that single-handedly move lines based on the shear amount of money they bet on a particular game and they are watched and feared by the bookmakers because they can hurt the bookies no matter whether the smart money (SYNDICATES-with a proven win record over the long-run) is on the fav. or the dog. They tip the 50/50 scale. The bookmakers thus adjust the lines to attract more money on the other side no matter who is or is not the better team or how much a better team they are.
I know I will be called a heretic by most here but my strategy is to watch as many games as possible, assess the teams strengths/weaknesses/injuries/turnovers /penalties etc, look at the match-up for the coming weeks and make my bets. I DON'T CARE what the line is. If I feel feel that my team is a better team , I don't care that the spread is -3 or -5 or -8. Of course I would rather have them at -3 vs -8 but the fact is that they should outplay and outscore the team I am betting against...PERIOD (whether I like the dog or the fav.) When I take the dog, (not often) it's because I think they will win the game outright. The challenge for me is picking the correct team, to beat those points (so I get paid), this week. I also don't care if someone bets 98% favs or 98% dogs just as long as they get their money on the right team THIS WEEK no matter how they come up with their choice.
For example, GIANTS -16.5??? thats a lot of points..biggest spread of the year..will it scare people off of them who really love them this week??? . I DON'T CARE!!! If i bet the GIANTS it is because in my mind they are that much better than the RAIDERS and if they are up by 20 with 2 mins to go and go into "PREVENT-ME-FROM-WINNING-MY-MONEY defence" (like they did against Washington) it doesn't mean I was wrong..it means I lost and thats the bottom line for me. Sorry for they long post, get your flame-throwers out.
PICKS
against the spread)
Ravens- 8 units
Bills-4 units
Giants-4 units
Jets-8-units
Parleys:
Ravens/Bills 2 units Ravens/Bills/Jets 1 unit
Ravens/Jets 2 units
Bills/Jets 1 unit
Bills/Colts 1 unitComment -
Eli most likely will not play....how can you go with Giants -16.5?Comment -
Got it. I use sportsbetting.com as well, but did not come across this until today. I am staying away from a few because of additional movement, but playing seven of them with you. Good luck.Comment -
You are misreading something. All Caka is saying in a nutshell is let someone else do all the assessing of strengths/weaknesses/etc. and follow them. You are right in your assessment of the original line trying to get 50% on each side but you can also not deny the fact that the line moves in order to attempt to get equal money on both sides. Caka is hypothesizing that a large, immediate line move means that a large amount of money was placed on one side - meaning that someone who did all the homework has a good feeling that their team will beat the line. At the end of the day, that is what this is all about: beating the line - not picking who wins or loses.Comment -
I am not sure if anyone thinks that bookmakers make lines based on what they think a team will win by, but it is irrelevant what the line was derived from. All that matters is that you have a line, any arbitrary line. As bettors we are making picks based on how many points we think a team will win or lose by; that is how we make or lose money. You are certainly right that bookmakers set the lines to a number that they think will draw even money to both sides of the bet as they don't want to gamble, rather just collect the juice. Now the only thing that makes a line move is if a disproportionate amount of action is being placed on either team as that creates risk for the book. So when a line moves that quickly, and especially on a low profile game, it may mean that those syndicates that you speak of and other large "sharp money" believe that there is an arbitrage situation in that the line is not representative of the actual strength of the teams. After we see that, Cakas is basically employing your strategy, betting that if a stronger team, judged presumably by sharp bettors that have good information, is going to win by the original line of 6, then there is a very good chance that they will cover the extra point or so as well, as no smart bettor or syndicate is going to dump a large enough bet to move the line by a full point on a team just because they thought the line was of by .5I'm new here and first and foremost I want to say this is a great site and I think the members for the most part are very knowledgeable and helpful, post very intersting topics and have well-thought opinions...so Thank you all,I'm learning a lot!!!! I also appreciate the fact that someone took the time to post this for all to consider. THANK-YOU VERY MUCH Caka!!! Not to flame anybody and I may be miss-reading something in the responses but it appears that some people think that the lines being set by the bookmakers are done so with the thought that the likelihood of a team winning/losing is by a certain amount of points. The lines are set based on what the bookies think will draw equal (1/2 the money on one team, 1/2 on the other..optimum) So the fact that a line is set on team X has nothing to do with it being wrong if team X is favoured by 12 and then moves to 15 and they actually lose the game by 14 points. All it means is that the bookie expects that 50% of the people would bet team X at 12...when it moves to 15 it means that they were wrong in anticipating how evenly (50/50) the money would be bet and they needed more people attracted to the dog. I know my post is stating the obvious but I think it needed to be said again. Having said all that, there are betting sydicates that single-handedly move lines based on the shear amount of money they bet on a particular game and they are watched and feared by the bookmakers because they can hurt the bookies no matter whether the smart money (SYNDICATES-with a proven win record over the long-run) is on the fav. or the dog. They tip the 50/50 scale. The bookmakers thus adjust the lines to attract more money on the other side no matter who is or is not the better team or how much a better team they are. I know I will be called a heretic by most here but my strategy is to watch as many games as possible, assess the teams strengths/weaknesses/injuries/turnovers /penalties etc, look at the match-up for the coming weeks and make my bets. I DON'T CARE what the line is. If I feel feel that my team is a better team , I don't care that the spread is -3 or -5 or -8. Of course I would rather have them at -3 vs -8 but the fact is that they should outplay and outscore the team I am betting against...PERIOD (whether I like the dog or the fav.) When I take the dog, (not often) it's because I think they will win the game outright. The challenge for me is picking the correct team, to beat those points (so I get paid), this week. I also don't care if someone bets 98% favs or 98% dogs just as long as they get their money on the right team THIS WEEK no matter how they come up with their choice. For example, GIANTS -16.5??? thats a lot of points..biggest spread of the year..will it scare people off of them who really love them this week??? . I DON'T CARE!!! If i bet the GIANTS it is because in my mind they are that much better than the RAIDERS and if they are up by 20 with 2 mins to go and go into "PREVENT-ME-FROM-WINNING-MY-MONEY defence" (like they did against Washington) it doesn't mean I was wrong..it means I lost and thats the bottom line for me. Sorry for they long post, get your flame-throwers out. PICKSagainst the spread) Ravens- 8 units Bills-4 units Giants-4 units Jets-8-units Parleys: Ravens/Bills 2 units Ravens/Bills/Jets 1 unit Ravens/Jets 2 units Bills/Jets 1 unit Bills/Colts 1 unitComment -
I wasn't talking about Cakas...
Thats why the Giants for less units...I expect the run game will shred the RAIDERS..the Raiders couldn't pass the ball to save their life and the GIANTS defence is A1, the defence will score (i hope). The risk is the clock..the run game will keep it moving much faster than I like. If I was sure Manning will play..I'd increase my bet.Comment
