Chucky, for some reason my Vols are NOT in according to the "experts." You know the committee really is something special and has been from the inception. They are incredible at their ability to create controversy. Republicans and Democrats take note... They have all this criteria, but really as Kirby Smart says,"I don't know what they are looking for I really don't." And he is so right: you say head to head matters but then Bama is in over TN. You say "how you look" matters well TN has the best D in the SEC. Shutting down every opponent until the Dawgs backed up against the wall finally break through... I hate to be that "guy" I really do but honestly just leave all non Big Ten/SEC schools out of the playoff unless they are undefeated. Easy, problem solved.
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Hi, Sundance. Thanks for the note. I was rooting hard for your Vols last nite.
I commented that I thought the Committee had Indiana way too high in the initial poll. If Indiana has a CLOSE loss in Columbus (by 7 or fewer), it would now be hard for an 11-1 Indiana to not make it. But Tennessee would be a good-sized favorite over Indiana on neutral.
There are things they just didn't contemplate. OleMiss could be in a precarious spot. 10-2 is likely to get them into the SEC title game with prospect of a third loss knocking them out.
I've been impressed by Tennessee. They had the strange loss @Arkansas. But I thought they were clearly superior to Alabama.
I'll be looking forward to the Army-Notre Dame game this week. I think Army is live. They'll go into the game expecting to win.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Sundance, I'll give you an example of corruption b4 our eyes. Go back to the VATech-MiamiFL game.
Amazing finish, is it a catch? Canes think NO. But ref rules it a TD.
Go to replay. Somehow, the ACC controls the replay review. They deliberate and say No Catch.
ACC helps their own cause by helping top-rated ACC team. Miami now faces prospect of being an 11-2 At-Large team. Personally, I think an 11-2 Miami team is dubious, they've had a lot of near-misses.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
If I was filling out the bracket, how I'd personally have it (as of today):
OleMiss
OhioSt
MiamiFL
BYU
Boise
Alab
Georgia
Texas
Oregon
Tenn
PennSt
NotD
My odd-man out would be Indiana. Their schedule has been favorable. Still a lot to be played out.
Notre Dame now has some tricky games at the end of their schedule. Neutral vs Army, and @USC. USC would love to beat the Irish.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Repeating my comment on the SEC tie-breakers. I think they mangled the tie-breakers.
A. Head-to-head competition against the tied teams
...I read that as a 4-way tie leads to lining up the H2H records among those teams.
...That's likely going to point to OleMiss, who is 1-0 against the big teams. Their losses came vs KY and LSU.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Notes after Week 12:
*Big theme of the week = the SEC schedule.
...This is what these teams signed up for. These now look like NFL schedules.
...16 teams in the conference. Miss St is way down. The other 15 teams are legit.
...At the start of the year, I was confident that no SEC team would get to 8-0. As is, Texas is the only remaining one-loss team.
*Alabama and OleMiss were the big losers of the week.
...Fair to say that each was capable of winning the National title.
...Tide and Rebels each picked up their third loss. Very hard to see either making it now.
...Oklahoma and Florida deliver the upsets as big Double Digit dogs.
*Texas A&M loses in Overtime to Auburn.
...By my calculation, this may actually not change their trajectory.
...I don't think it changes their permutations based on the fact that they still have to beat Texas next week.
*My attempt at decoding the SEC title teams:
...I believe it's now simply (Tex/TexAM winner) vs Georgia.
...I base this on the SEC tiebreaker being H2H record amongst tied teams.
...TxAM/Geo/Tenn are the two-loss teams. An Aggie win over Texas would add Horns to the 2-loss group.
...Very few H2H data points. TxAM would be 1-0 if they beat Texas, and GEO is 2-0 with wins over TX/Tenn.
*Who benefited from Alab and OleMiss losing? My answer is:
...Tenn for sure. Vols now look like a solid 2-loss At-Large team, assuming they can beat Vandy.
...Indiana. Had the chalk held, that 23-point loss in Columbus might have been a dagger.
...MiamiFL/SMU in the ACC. I really can't see a 3-loss team making it as an At-Large. An 11-2 ACC finalist might now be enough to qualify.
*More cannabilism in the Big 12. BYU and Colorado were in Pole-Position, but each loses on the road.
...I'm not sure of all the tie-breaker permutations.
...But I am sure that the Big12 will now be a one-bid league.
*Notre Dame destroys Army. I was expecting a much better showing from Army.
...Class edge showed. Guess I shouldn't be too surprised.
...Irish were pretty dominant. They finish @USC. I view that as a tricky game.
*Boise holds off Wyoming in narrow win.
...Final game home against Oregon St. Doesn't figure to be a big problem.
...Should Boise falter, an 11-2 Tulane would figure to be the next candidate to represent the Gof5.
*Lastly, with all the upsets today the other team that may have improved their chances signficantly?
...Clemson!
...When the AP poll comes out this week, who will rate highest amongst Clemson/Alabama/OleMiss?Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Notes after Week 13:
*Will start with the Big12:
...Arizona St continues to impress. Sun Devils remove any doubt. They throttle Arizona and clinch a spot in the Big12 title game.
...BYU/Hou wrapping up as we speak. If BYU holds on, IowaSt to the title game. If BYU loses, Colorado would play Arizona St.
*Big 10 update:
...Stunning result from Columbus. Star-laden Ohio St team goes down to Michigan, 13-10, in a Wolverine re-building year. It defies logic, as Ohio St seemingly had all the advantages. Talent, home field, coaching changes, motivation. That's why they play the games, down go the Bucks.
...Oregon brings a focused effort to take down Washington. Ducks to the Big 10 title game.
...Penn St blows out Maryland. Nittany Lions take the place of Ohio St in the title game.
...Upstart Indiana buries Purdue. Hoosiers complete a fantastic 11-1 season and will surely be a CFP At-Large team.
...As bad as Ohio State's loss looks, I don't see any way the Bucks fall out of the At-Large list.
*SEC update:
...Texas gets two replay review TDs to take a 14-0 lead over Texas A&M. It holds up for a 17-7 road win. Longhorns qualify for the SEC title game.
...Georgia beats in-state rival Georgia Tech, 44-42, in a long Overtime game. Dawgs will play Texas.
...Tennessee secures a 36-23 win over upset-minded Vanderbilt. Vols look to be solidly in at 10-2.
...But that's where the debate will begin. The SEC has produced three clear CFP representatives. Is there a fourth? Or even a fifth worthy representative?
...The SEC teams cannabilized each other. Six teams tied for fourth place with a 5-3 league record.
...LSU and Texas A&M have a fourth loss from Non-Conference play, so they can safely be eliminated.
...Missouri played a very light Non-Conference schedule and looked meek in games versus Alabama and Texas A&M. Safe to scratch out Missouri.
...That leaves South Carolina, Alabama, and Ole Miss at 9-3. Is there any room at the inn?
South Carolina finished the season on a six-game win streak. And they capped it off with a 17-14 win over in-state rival Clemson. Are the Gamecocks worthy? Or are they Flavor of the Month?
...Alabama certainly has more name recognition. How damaging are the Tide losses? They lost by 5 at Vanderbilt and lost by 21 at Oklahoma. Only the seven-point loss at Tennessee could be called a "good loss." And their two-point home win over South Carolina was far from convincing.
...Ole Miss looked phenomenal at times. The Rebels won decisively against Georgia, and they also hold a 24-point win over South Carolina. They dropped three-point losses to Kentucky and LSU, and they also lost by seven at Florida.
...One has to wonder what criteria the committee will use to separate teams with similar resumes.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
*Notre Dame holds off USC, 49-35.
...They complete their regular season at 11-1. The Fighting Irish have done plenty to earn an At-Large bid.
...Notre Dame figures to get a high-seed. As high as #5 or #6.
*The ACC sees a major twist at the finish line.
...Miami-FL had been living dangerously much of the year. The Canes dodged near-misses versus Virginia Tech and Cal. They took a loss at Georgia Tech. And on the precipice of making the ACC title game, they took another loss at Syracuse. The Orangemen up-ended the Canes, 42-38, behind Ohio St castoff Kyle McCord.
...SMU polished off Cal. The Mustangs will now play Clemson in the ACC Championship game.
...SMU should have gained immensely from all the upsets. Can't see an 11-2 SMU being excluded, unless they get boat-raced by Clemson.
...Clemson will surely need to win to qualify. What about Miami-FL? There's a long-standing saying in College Football that a late-season loss is more damaging than an early-season loss. The Canes lost two of their last three games and now stare at the real possibility of being left out.
As for the Group of Five:
*Boise completes a fantastic 11-1 regular season. Their 3-point loss at Oregon looks better and better.
...Boise will be playing the Mountain West title game on their home field versus 10-2 UNLV.
...The top Gof5 team now appears to surely be the winner of the Boise/UNLV game.
...Tulane picked up a third loss versus Memphis. So, the Green Wave no longer have a great case.
...Army stands at 10-1 and will play Tulane in the American championship. The Black Knights face the very strange scheduling spot of playing Navy the week after the conference championship game.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
*As I write this, BYU is clinging to a 24-18 lead. Are the Coogs dis-heartened by not having a shot at the Big12 title game?
...They're driving. Trying to polish it off.
Go through the rubric and deduce how the bracket will play out. Consider the eight teams in the major conference championships. Of those teams:
...Big 10 will produce two qualfiers.
...Big 12 will produce ONE qualifier.
...ACC will produce: TWO qualifiers if SMU loses. Only one qualifier if SMU wins.
...SEC will produce two qualifiers.
...Notre Dame is a lock.
...Boise/UNLV winner is your top Gof5 team.
That adds up to: nine teams (if SMU loses), eight teams (if SMU wins).
...Remainder of: three teams (if SMU loses), four teams (if SMU wins).
Way I see it playing out, the three At-Large teams are:
*Indiana
*Ohio St
*Tennessee
*If SMU wins the ACC title game...who gets the last spot??? My answer: SOUTH CAROLINA!!Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Just a few comments from Post #1.
*Big12: OklaSt
...How did I do? LOL. I would have offered 100/1 to anyone that OklaSt would go 0-9 in conference. Wow!
*Memphis was not insane. They actually had a good season. They DID beat the Seminoles and wound up 10-2.
*I knew the SEC schedule would be too tough. Thought Alabama could go 10-2 (instead of 9-3).
*Texas A&M was one win away from playing for the SEC title. Not too far off.
*Nebraska had not made a bowl in many years. They get to 6-6. Indiana supplanted NEB as the Big10 surprise tm.
*Virginia Tech looks bad. But it all goes back to the finish at MiaFL. Better finish there, might be in ACC title game.
*Notre Dame: as predicted. 10-1 into the USC game, they win and get to 11-1.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Another follow-up on this:
1) Alabama is ranked higher than South Carolina in the latest AP poll. 11 vs 13.
...I knew these over-sized conferences were going to lead to some very tough decisions.
...I personally view the Alab losses as quite damaging. They lost to Vandy and Oklahoma, who finished in the bottom half of the league.
2) I would have said that a 12-1 Army might have an argument as an At-Large team.
...But their loss versus Notre Dame was decisive. A close loss would have had them in the discussion.
3) Alabama is a name team. The Tide generate a lot of discussion.
...Over the course of the season, I thought Ole Miss looked more impressive than Alabama.
...I could see why Ole Miss will feel left out, given all the upsets around the country.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Watched the Hit the Books podcast. They think:
1) SMU needs to win to get in.
...I disagree. SMU is un-defeated since Phillips took over at QB. Rated too high now.
2) Alabama is in.
...Stated my opinion. But I could be wrong.
3) South Carolina out.
...Market line = South Carolina +500 to make it. I disagree, the 6-game win streak matters.
...It's a tough comparison. Alabama's losses are pretty bad.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Notes after Week 14:
*Championship week. The Major results:
...ArizSt rips IASt. Sun Devils are in.
...Oregon beats Penn St by 8. Ducks will get the 1-seed. Penn St will get an At-Large bid.
...Georgia rallies to beat Texas. Dawgs will get a bye, Texas will get a high At-Large bid.
...Clemson coughs up a big lead. SMU rallies to tie late. Clemson kicks a very late FG to win.
*Clemson/SMU will be the game that people talk about. Is SMU in as an At-Large team?
...Gave my opinion. SMU has a 3-pt loss to 10-win BYU and now a 3-pt loss to 10-win Clemson.
...SMU has shown they'll be competitive versus any opponent. I believe SMU should be in over 3-loss Alab.
...If I was Lashlee, I would have gone for two after the last Touchdown. Make it and you win. Miss it and you have a one-pt loss (which shouldn't be a deal-breaker).
*Boise beats UNLV to win the Mt West.
...Fantastic 12-1 season. Their sole loss looks strong.
...With the other results coming in, Boise looks to have secured a top-4 seed and a bye.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
How would you see the five Conference champions? My list would be:
1 - Oregon. No brainer.
2 - Georgia. Beck picked up an injury, and that could impact their seed.
3 - Boise St. If Beck is out, it's a big deal. But I don't think the committee would move Boise to #2.
4 - Arizona St. Sun Devils have been rolling. I think there's a good chance they stay ahead of Clemson.
5 - Clemson. Kicker comes up huge, nails the winner at the gun. Clemson has two Non-Conference losses and a Home loss to Louisville. I don't think they merit jumping Arizona St.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
*Army beats Tulane in the American championship.
...They get to 11-1 with the Navy game pending.
...If Army had played Notre Dame closer, they would be in the discussion for a bid. As is, I don't think one can make a valid case for including the Black Knights.
*Who merits getting the seven At-Large bids? My list is:
...Texas
...Penn St
...Notre Dame
...Ohio St
...Tennessee
...Indiana
...SMU. Mustangs get my vote.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Bracket may be:
SMU at Texas. Winner plays Arizona St.
Tenn at Ohio St. Winner plays Oregon.
Indiana at Penn St. Winner plays Georgia.
Clemson at Not Dame. Winner plays Boise.
...Small chance that the committee moves a few seeds to avoid repeat mathchups.
...Tell me what you think! Will the Tide snub SMU?Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Wow. I'd say my predictions were pretty close. The top five Conf Champs did fall 1 to 5 as I predicted.
Only flips were:
1) SMU-11 and Clem-12
2) PennSt-6 and NotDame-7
...I thought SMU/Clem could go either way on 11/12. Clemson did have the heads-up win so I thought Clem @11.
...They didn't drop PennSt below Not Dame. Makes sense. Also, this avoids Ind/PennSt as a Big10 matchup.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
The Talking Heads made a good point about the seedings. A few comments:
1) It's not fair to Notre Dame. If they're good enough, they should be eligible for top 4.
2) I think the top four Conf champs should be guaranteed a top 8-seed. But the top 4 don't have to be all Conf champs.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment
