My stab @ 2024 12-team playoff

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-24, 08:01 PM

Will periodically post some follow-ups on this. Random comments:

1) Clemson looked bad. The team I bypassed (FlaSt) already has a Conf loss. ACC might be wide-open, who wants it?

2) Great start by OklaSt. It was against an FCS team, but that's the TOP DOG in FCS.

3) Tex A&M was lacking. QB was < Not Dame defense. As hyped up as the Aggie Def Line was, Not Dame young Off Line handled them.

4) Nebraska was a good call (so far). Favored this week. See if NEB can get to 6-0.

5) VATech was a whiff, wow. See the Clemson comment. MiaFL is the only ACC team that looks strong.

6) Great win for Not Dame. Off Line much > expected. If Not Dame beats Louisville, they'll be on their way to a great record.

7) One team I didn't list but viewed as a threat was USC. USC was +500 to make the Top 12. NotD/USC to be a play-in game?

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-02-24, 08:03 PM

One takeaway from Week One. I thought that the ACC and Big12 would be strong enough to get a second team into the Top 12. I have to re-consider.

I thought the SEC teams would cannibalize each other. As is, there might be five SEC teams in the Top 12.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-08-24, 06:52 PM

Follow-up on this:

*The popular teams I excluded were Mich/Oreg/Tex/Okla;
...MICH based on personnel turnover.
...Three others based on much tougher schedules. I whiffed on Texas.

*Two glaring omissions in my original list: Tenn and Ole Miss.

*I now question whether the ACC/Big12 are guaranteed a 2nd team. One-bid leagues?

*Boise almost pulled off a great win @Oreg. Even losing by 3 was a "good loss." Boise is now in the driver's seat to get the Group of 5 bid.
...Memphis' game @FlaSt doesn't look so daunting now. A win in Tallahassee would no longer be a HUGE win.
...At the risk of sounding like a moron, I'll add one team to the Gof5 watch list. Army: see if they win their next game vs Rice. Beating Rice would be a springboard to a fast start against a modest schedule.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-17-24, 11:10 PM

Weekly update to this thread. Just for my own curiosity.

*I don't rule out any of the four champs.
...Big game for OklaSt this week. Home vs Utah, and OklaSt rush game has been < expectation thus far.

*Texas A&M looks like a bust. Chance for revival from the frosh QB Reed?

*Nebraska right now stands out as a good outsider pick. Can they get to 10-2?

*I won't yet rule out VaTech and NotDame. But their margin for error is much less now.

*Memphis gets a huge win in the Group of 5 race. Admittedly, it might not look so good if FlaSt goes flat.
...I would have said that Boise has the inside track if Memphis had lost. Now, I think MEM has the inside track.
...I'll introduce one Group of 5 name that nobody is thinking of. Take a look @ ARMY. They have a key game this week home vs Rice. If they can gets past the Owls, they could be on to a start of 5-0 or better. Love their QB Daily, who plays QB like a FB.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-17-24, 11:13 PM

Also, would be remiss if I didn't give a mention to WashSt. Coogs notched a huge win over rival Washington.
...WashSt is now 3-0. Early win in the Apple Cup, and their remaining schedule is effectively a Mountain West schedule.
...Coogs are sans Conference. So, their only CFP avenue is an at-large bid. Great start, after being rejected by the major conferences.

**unluckysob** · 09-21-24, 02:03 AM

Georgia plays Alabama and Texas. I think they lose both games.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-22-24, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by unluckysob

Georgia plays Alabama and Texas. I think they lose both games.

Hey, sob. The SEC schedules are amazing this year.

Felt like Geo/Alab could both handle the tough schedules. You could be right about the Geo games. TEX looks amazing.

A few questions that will play themselves out:
1) How many SEC teams make the top 12?
2) What W-L record ensures an SEC team of making the top 12?

1) I originally under-estimated this. Right now, 5 of the top 6 in the AP poll are SEC teams.
2) 10-2 in the SEC will surely get that team into the top 12.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-22-24, 04:01 PM

Comments after Week Three:

SEC dominance is the theme of the week. See comments above. TENN and Ole Miss have gained traction from the start of the year.

I now see a chasm between the top teams and teams in the middle of the AP poll? How in the world is Michigan still ranked #12? And USC ranked #13, for that matter.

Two big upsets in the Group of 5. Navy takes down Memphis, and Buffalo beats NoILL. I would have said that Memphis and NoILL had the inside track to just win out and make it. Now, Boise has clear control of their destiny thanks to that close loss to Oregon.

Nebraska takes a bad loss to Illinois. My outsider picks now look pretty bad. I thought that USC +500 to make the CFP was +EV, and that one has life.

Utah gets a nice road win @OklaSt. Puts the Utes in good position. It now looks like there may not be too many non-SEC At-Large bids to go around.

Same thing for Miami FL. Their remaining schedule looks less than ominous. We'll see what teams give themselves a buffer so that they could take a loss and still qualify as an At-Large team.

**Optional** · 09-22-24, 04:03 PM

A lot of people seem high on TEN. No mention of them yet Chucky?

**Optional** · 09-22-24, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by Optional

A lot of people seem high on TEN. No mention of them yet Chucky?

LOL, should have refreshed before posting that!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-22-24, 04:05 PM

Mention of a few more teams:

1) BYU records a blowout win vs Kansas St. Sounds strange to have BYU in the Big 12. No longer in the Mid Major conferences.

2) Army does record an impressive win versus Rice. QB Daily goes crazy with three rush TDs and two pass TDs. Army keeps winning and has potential to make noise in the Group of 5.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-22-24, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by Optional

A lot of people seem high on TEN. No mention of them yet Chucky?

Vols look really good, Opti. They looked to be in a different class last nite @Oklahoma.

Goes back to comment on the chasm between teams. The top eight or nine teams look to be on a different level. Only question is where that line of demarcation falls.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-30-24, 08:25 AM

News after Week Four. How do my picks look? I'd mostly say not too good.

Of my top 4, three still look likely to at least make the Top 12. OklaSt picks up another loss, they look dreadful.

Key game was VATech @ MiaFL. Hokies played a great game and led. Canes rallied to take a 38-34 lead. Some VATech coaching mis-management, down to a Hail Mary. He CATCHES IT for a TD, over-ruled by replay. That result would have thrown a wrench into the ACC standings.

My outsider picks look pretty lame. The Top 12 is now shaping up:
*Utah loses. Big 12 now looks like a one-bid league.
*Clemson wins again. ACC looks like a two-bid league.
*The 12-team composition now looks like:
...5 SEC, 3 Big10, 2 ACC, 1 Big12, and top Gof5 team.

Group of 5 race took on some intrigue this week. Boise RB Jeanty looks amazing, he's putting up Nintendo stats with a YPR > 10.0.
...QB Sluka from Gof5 contender UNLV left the team. Backup replaces him, and UNLV rolls 59-14 without Sluka.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-06-24, 05:18 PM

Some comments after Week 05:
*Ton of upsets at the top. I'm not sure it changes the projected top 12 too much.
...We knew the SEC schedule would be tough. Who knew there would be landmines (Vand/ARK) at almost every turn?

*Hard to see any SEC team getting to 13-0 (or 12-0).
...Could Texas do it? Some tough games coming up. I'm of the opinion that they need Ewers at some point.

*Huge game this week: 2 OhioSt @ 3 Oregon.
...Buckeyes pass my eye test. I still have some questions on the physicality of Oregon.
...That said, I have a hard time finding a second loss on their schedule. So, the Ducks look to be in Top 12.

*MiamiFL dodges a huge scare (for the second week in a row).
...They rally from way 25 back to pip Cal by one point.
...Listened to one solid CollFB analyst. Canes are likely to make the CFP. But they haven't necessarily shown enough yet to think they'll go deep in the playoffs.

*IowaSt remains unbeaten and is now on top of the Big12.
...Tough game @WestVA this week.
...Now looks like the only path to a second Big12 team = 12-0 IowaSt that loses in the Big12 Championship.

*BYU is ranked #14. They look like an outsider to me.
...They were fortunate to play SMU when QB Stone was coming back from injury. Would BYU beat SMU with Phillips at QB?
...Upcoming string of games that will test BYU. I certainly didn't see them being this good.

*Mentioned my three outsider picks in Post #1: TexAM, Neb, and VATech.
...Maybe I was too harsh on my initial assessment.
...Texas A&M has rebounded after the opening loss to Notre Dame. Weigman returned and looked good in a blowout win over Missouri. There is a path for the Aggies to get to 10-1 heading into the Texas game.
...I thought that Nebraska had a chance to get to 7-0. The analysts now might amend that to "Indiana has a chance to get to 10-0." Hoosiers have been great, crossroads game next week: NEB @IND.
...As bad as VATech looked in two early-season losses, you had to feel bad for them losing the Miami game in that fashion. They have three losses but only one Conf loss. The 11/9 home game versus Clemson has some intrigue.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-06-24, 07:31 PM

A few comments on the Gof5 teams:

*James Madison had a big upset loss. Can no longer go undefeated. Will need help to be the top Gof5 team.

*I do think that Army/Navy technically have the inside-track. But their road to 13-0 will get tough.
...Navy and Army are listed 28th and 29th, respectively, in this week's AP poll. So, they could be ranked in the next week or two (if they keep winning).
...Army joined the American Conf this year. I heard that the year-end Army/Navy game is technically a Non-Conf game. Who would have anticipated it to have such big implications?

*UNLV lost this week. But I still think the key remaining Gof5 game is Boise @UNLV. A UNLV win would be against a ranked opponent and a Heisman contender. If UNLV beats Boise twice, they'd have a great argument at 12-1.

*Liberty could be a forgotten team. They could have used the game at AppSt to boost their SOS. As is, even 11-0 won't look so good against their SOS.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-13-24, 07:20 PM

Notes after Week 06:

*The highest-profile game was OhioSt @Oreg. Ducks win, but I don't think that result changes the likely top 12. It is a great win for Oregon, in the sense that they're now more likely to earn the bye.

*The more consequential game was Ole Miss @LSU. LSU ties it late and wins in overtime. LSU effectively steals the Ole Miss bid, at this point.
...The SEC schedules were going to be tough. There is now a prospect of Ole Miss being in the top 10 of everyone's Power Ratings but missing out on the top 12.

*Texas is super impressive. Ewers returns. Even after a slow start, they steamroll Oklahoma (who now looks like a tomato-can).

*Penn St wins late @USC. But are they worthy of a #3 ranking?

*Alabama survives a scare vs South Carolina. Gamecocks made a ton of errors down the stretch and helped Alabama out.
...Jesse Palmer made a salient point during that game. A loss to South Carolina would not have just been Alabama's second loss. It may well have been a knockout blow, as that would have been a second loss to a team from the lower-end of the SEC.

*Notre Dame has not received a lot of attention in recent weeks. One interesting twist. A schedule that was light on ranked opponents might actually get a boost from Navy and Army (of all teams)!

*Big 12 looks like a very balanced league. Can Iowa St or BYU get to 12-0? Lot of landmines, so I doubt it. Big 12 very much looks like a one-bid league.

*Boise wins and is now ranked 15th. A 12-1 Mountain West champ (Boise or UNLV) would very likely be the top Group of 5 team.
...The asterisk would be Navy or Army continuing to win. And Navy/Army have to go through Notre Dame.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-14-24, 12:15 AM

If the season ended today, what might the bracket look like?
1. TEXAS
2. OREGON
3. MIAMI FL
4. IOWA STATE
5. OHIO STATE
6. PENN ST
7. GEORGIA
8. ALA
9. CLEM
10. LSU
11. TENN
12. BOISE ST

I haven't heard this. But I'd expect them to split up Conference foes, if possible. Will still likely be a SEC/SEC matchup in the first round.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-20-24, 06:03 AM

Notes after Week 07:

Two factors that the Commissioners didn't consider:
1) Cross-country travel. West Coast teams are now in conferences where most of the teams are located in the east. The excessive travel is creating jag-lag situations that make it tough on some teams.
2) Super-sizing the conferences eliminates the round-robin aspect of divisional play. Take Ole Miss and Alabama, as an example. They would have played Head-to-Head in the old SEC West format. Now, there's a chance that Ole Miss and Alabama each get to 10-2, and there's no H2H data-point. Good Luck determining which team merits that last at-large slot.

*Most impactful result of the week was Tennessee upsetting Alabama. Tide pass defense looked porous. Feel like the TENN qb left a lot of points on the board.
...Not that impressed by either coach. DeBoer looked good early in the season. You now wonder about the transition from Saban.

*Georgia jumps up 23-0 on Texas. Dawgs win in Austin. Not a death-blow for Texas, as 10-1 still looks doable. Horns play next week @Vanderbilt. Can the Commodores play Giant Killer again?

*Oregon wins easily @Purdue. The Ducks now look poised to take over the #1 ranking. They play host to Illinois this week. But their path to 12-0 does not look that daunting.

*I mentioned how balanced the Big12 looked to me. 6-0 Iowa St and 6-0 BYU looked to be in trouble this week, but both rally late to pull out wins. I would be surprised to see either get to 12-0, because there are landmines in this conference every week.

*Notre Dame beats Georgia Tech, who was playing without QB Haynes King. After the shock loss versus Northern Illinois, talk was that their Strength of Schedule would preclude them from making the CFP with a 10-2 record. Funny how they lost SOS points from Florida St and USC...but now have ranked opponents remaining in Navy and Army. Notre Dame's path to the CFP now looks straightforward, get to 11-1 and they're in.

*Indiana gets more buzz this week. They dominate Nebraska, 56-7. The Hoosier non-conference schedule was incredibly light. And their luck of the draw on conference opponents was favorable. 11-1 now looks possible.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-20-24, 09:34 AM

Some Gof5 comments:

*James Madison picks up 2nd loss. Surely eliminates the Dukes from consideration.

*UNLV wins @OregSt. Sets up a huge home game this week versus Boise.
...A 12-1 Mountain West champ would likely be the Gof5 representative.

*The asterisk is Navy/Army. Navy plays Notre Dame this week in Jersey.
...A Navy win would give the Mids a reasonable path to 11-0.
...Very strange scheduling issue. I believe the 12-team CFP is announced before the Army/Navy game played on 12/14.
...The planners surely assumed that the Army/Navy game would have no impact on the CFP. Not so fast, my friend.

*Army wins again. They built a huge lead, and East Carolina scored late points to make the margin look closer.
...Army is a great team. Everyone on offense blocks. QB Daily is putting together a near-perfect season, in part because he can throw well enough when the opportunity presents itself.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-27-24, 04:54 AM

Notes after Week 08:

*Texas A&M wins the pivotal game of the week over LSU. Three factors that triggered the win (IMHO):
a) LSU lack of a run game. Put the game all on the QB.
b) LSU mangling the Field Goal operation.
c) Elko making the QB switch based on the LSU defensive alignment. Reed was fantastic.

Can Elko figure out how to use two QBs? They can beat Texas, if they figure out the QB situation. LSU has the schedule to get back into the CFP discussion, huge game next home versus Alabama.

*I've referenced the three outsider picks I made (at the top):
...I thought TexA&M was a bad pick after week one. Now looks quite good. Everything to play for.
...As bad as VATech looked early, I go back to the game at Miami. Was that highway robbery?
...Nebraska got destroyed last week @Indiana. But they come back and almost beat Ohio St!

*Back to the Ohio St game. Wow, Buckeyes almost lose. Nebraska coaches decided to snuff out the run.
...Nebraska kicker had been bad in previous games. He comes up big with three FG.
...Huskers take the lead in the fourth. Buckeyes rally to win.
...Put away the anointing oils on this QB Raiola. If he had more touch on his passes, Huskers win.

*If I was wrong about Oregon and Texas, fair to say that I was right about FlaSt/Michigan/Oklahoma.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-27-24, 05:04 AM

*BYU wins again. They came from nowhere. 8-0 and the runout on the schedule looks decent.
...Very interesting game next week. Holy War @Utah. Utes have fizzled out but I'd have to imagine that they'd love jam up their rival.

*Indiana wins again. Hoosiers have now supplanted Vandy as the storybook team of the year.
...Solid win over a tricky opponent. And they did it with backup QB Jackson starting.
...The pick-six versus Rodgers was awesome.
...Consider the last two Nebraska data-points. Hoosiers bury NEB 56-7...and Ohio St just survives, 21-17.
...I'd have to say that the narrative has switched from "Can an 11-1 Indiana make the playoffs (assuming a loss in Columbus)?"
...The Hoosiers have proven themselves. Now you have to think about them winning @OhioSt.

*Notre Dame buries Navy. Props to the Irish. Navy was ranked, so Notre Dame will get some style points.
...The Army game looms. But Notre Dame now has every chance to get to 11-1 on the runout.

*Boise wins at UNLV. Boise now the Pole Position team to be the top Gof5 team.
...I'm still pondering the Army/NotDame game. I've been in the camp that Army is better than Navy.
...This is an amazing Army team. I can say that they'll go into that game with great confidence.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-27-24, 12:45 PM

Barrie and Feinbaum discuss Elko going to TxAM:

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-27-24, 04:10 PM

What a Fake FG by Byu:

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 11-02-24, 11:07 PM

Notes after Week 09:
*Florida plays Georgia well. But the Dawgs win.
...LSU/Alab next week. LSU has a chance to finish with one Conf loss.
...Tex A&M picks up first Conf loss @South Carolina. I'm a little surprised Elko chucked Weigman instead of using a 2-QB system.
...The SEC Champ game is looking a lot like (winner of Geo/Tenn) vs (winner of Tex/TexAM).
...There are going to be some 2-loss SEC teams who look like solid At-Large candidates. But it's going to be hard to differentiate between these teams. Fewer H2H matchups.

*Clemson might be the big loser of the week. Louisville took several close losses b4 winning @Clemson.
...SMU takes out undefeated Pitt. SMU now has the in-road to the ACC Champ game.
...Looks a lot like Miami FL vs SMU.
...Does SMU have any prospect of being an 11-2 At-Large team? Their only loss is to an unbeaten BYU. But I doubt it, as they started pretty low in the pre-season polls.

*Penn St goes down again to Ohio St. But Penn St still looks likely to get to 11-1.
...Indiana steamrolls again. Amazingly, Steele predicted the Hoosiers to finsih 18th (of 18) in the conference.
...Oregon wins again. They're rolling. But I personally view the Ducks as a phony #1.
...Buckeyes host IND on 11/23. Then they finish home vs Michigan in a game that now looks one-sided.

*Texas Tech knocks off Iowa St by one-point.
...After the Iowa St loss, I'm now convinced that the Big 12 is a one-bid league.
...There's a lot of parity in the league. Not much separating the top of the league.
...BYU's power-rating is not overwhelming. Would a 12-1 BYU merit consideration as an At-Large bid? I think there are too many SEC/Big10 teams that trump BYU.

*Boise rolls, 56-24. QB had a huge game. Broncos win with Jeanty having a modest game (by his standards).
...If I had one Boise prediction, it would that the HC tries to pace Jeanty in coming weeks. His carry # has been high in recent games and he's picked up knocks.
...Boise is in excellent shape to get to 12-1 and be the Gof5 rep.

*The Army QB injury was a shocker to me.
...I do wonder if Monken decided to exercise caution. Daily is a physical runner. Is Monken trying to keep his pitch-count low?
...Army has much tougher games coming up. They need a healthy Daily. It's possible that Monken wanted to throw a bone to backup QB Coleman.
...I fully expect Daily to be playing in these games. Starts next week with a tricky game @North Texas.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 11-07-24, 05:33 PM

How I see the 12 teams playing out:

Geo
OhSt
MiaFL
BYU
Boise

Tenn
OleMiss
Texas
Oregon
PennSt
NotD
Alab: Will comment on the last team (Alab). If the Tide win out, I don't think they're CERTAIN of a slot but they'd have a good resume.
...Not saying that the ACC would play shenanigans. But a 12-1 Miami that loses in the title game would surely snare an At-Large bid. Miami as ACC champ likely means only one ACC bid.
...I do view LSU/Alab as an elimination game. Losing team is likely knocked out.

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Two takeaways from the first CFP release:

1) Wow, Indiana should feel good.
...I've mentioned that these committees don't do a good job of evaluating Strength of Schedule.
...Hoosiers are in an amazing position. It will now be virtually impossible for the committee to deny them if they get to 11-1 WITH a close loss (of 7 or fewer) @OhioSt.

2) Never would have guessed that Boise could pass the Big12 champ to get the 4-seed.
...I mentioned how even the Big 12 teams are. Can BYU get five more wins?
...Unless BYU finishes 13-0, Boise could very well grade out stronger than the Big 12 representative.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 11-10-24, 08:04 AM

Notes from Week 10:

Themes emerging. Posted two of these above:
1) Excessive travel, when you have West Coast teams playing in Eastern conferences.
2) Super-sized conferences that don't allow for Round Robin play. Fewer H2H data-points.
3) Third one I'll introduce this week. Committee not accounting well for Strength of Schedule.
...See if the committee rates an 11-1 Indiana or a 12-1 BYU accurately.
...It's clear to me that the committee will over-value these teams.

*OleMiss takes out Georgia.
*Alabama wins decisively over LSU.
*Indiana wins narrowly over MICH.
*BYU goes to 9-0 with a very late win @Utah.
*Army goes to 9-0 with Daily coming back from injury.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 11-10-24, 08:18 AM

The SEC standings are a mess. Very little is clear at the top. Seven teams with one or two total losses.

The tie-breaker procedure could be messy:

Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams

*Georgia now looks unlikely to make the SEC Champ. Is that a bad thing? 10-2 would seemingly get them in the top 12, and they wouldn't have to risk a third loss in the title game.

*MIZZ beats Oklahoma. Do you just chuck Missouri based on them looking bad in their two biggest games?

*Tenn QB picked up a knock on SAT. This is big news in multiple ways. Will hinder their performance. But it also gives the committee huge latitude to exclude the Vols based on available personnel.

Who is going to play in the SEC title game? Half of that answer figures to be the Texas-TexAM winner. The other half? That gets very messy, see the tie-breaker procedure above. I'm not even sure Paul Feinbaum has an answer on that one.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 11-10-24, 08:23 AM

Boise wins by 7 over Nevada. Broncos still look to be on a path to 12-1.

North Texas leaves 21 points on the board. Stuffed at the one and two INTs thrown into the End Zone. Army plays Notre Dame after a bye week. Daily is back. Army will go into that game fully confident they can win.

Army versus Notre Dame has huge CFP implications. An Army win might push them ahead of Boise in the Gof5 rankings. In that case Boise might even have an argument for an At-Large bid.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 11-10-24, 08:26 AM

Newspapers are starting to repeat the theme I mentioned above. The SEC figures to produce multiple 10-2 teams. Would those teams even want to play in the SEC title game (when facing the prospect of a third loss)?

Alabama football back in hunt for SEC title game, but is a berth even worth it? | Goodbread

https://www.tidesports.com/story/sports/columns/2024/11/10/would-reaching-sec-title-game-be-good-for-alabama-football-heck-no/75837644007/

Alabama football remains in the hunt for the SEC title game after beating LSU, but a two-loss Crimson Tide team would be better off not playing in it.

Tenn/Geo/Alab/OleMiss would seemingly have strong 10-2 resumes. 10-3? Not so much.

**dollarbill** · 11-10-24, 01:17 PM

Colorado wins out look out!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 11-10-24, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by dollarbill

Colorado wins out look out!

Hi, Bill. I didn't talk much about Big12 this week. Yes, Champ game could be BYU vs Colo.

**dollarbill** · 11-10-24, 02:50 PM

okay great saw they were not on regular season schedule wasn't seeing them playing...

Alabama
Texas
Ohio State
Notre Dame
Ole Miss
Georgia
Oregon
Penn State
Tennessee
Indiana
Miami
Clemson
Louisville
South Carolina
Texas A&M
LSU
SMU
USC
Kansas State
Tulane
Boise State
Colorado
Iowa
Iowa State
Missouri

should be anyone any given week....

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 11-17-24, 06:55 AM

Notes after Week 11:

*Follow-up from last week. I really don't think the ADs considered how messy these Conference tie-breakers might be.
...A conference is designed for Round Robin play. The oversized conferences don't allow for that.
...Definitely some scenarios where a 3rd loss in a Conf Champ game would knock a team out of the CFP.

Results:
*Oregon survives. Wins by 3 at Wisconsin. Do the Ducks look like a legit #1 team?
*Georgia comes from behind to beat TENN. TENN Nico played @ QB. Both teams look to be safely in.
*Colorado beats a banged-up Utah team. Buffs now on pace to make the Big12 title game.
*South Carolina pips Missouri by 4. Eliminates Missouri, who may have had visions of 10-2.
*Kansas does up-end BYU. This solidifies my view of the Big12 being a one-bid league. BYU survived last week @Utah. Can't see an 11-2 BYU being an At-Large team.

*Boise rallies from 14 down to win @SanJoseSt. Jeanty has a big game. Broncos look to be top Gof5 team.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 11-17-24, 07:07 AM

*New Mexico beats Wash St. Second loss for WashSt, there had been some sentiment for an 11-1 WashSt being an At-Large candidate.

SEC championship matchup is a mess. But I think I have the answer. I believe it will be:
*OleMiss (assuming they get to 10-2) versus (Tex/TxAM winner).
...First tie-breaker = H2H amongst tied teams.
...This goes back to my previous theme on fewer H2H matchups in the oversized conferences.
...Texas A&M actually has none of Geo/Tenn/Alab/OleMiss on their schedule.
...OleMiss has ONE of those teams on their schedule. And they beat Georgia.

BYU and Colorado in pole-position to make the Big12 title game. But tough games this week:
*BYU @ArizSt (who is amazingly 8-2).
*Colo @Kansas (who is resurgent).