System Picks
Been AWOL for awhile.....was here during MLB season, now back with my NCAAF "SYSTEM".
Every year I try to find something to get a system started and this year is no different, with the exception that I now have the time to invest in the system......aka research.
I do not bet real money, just use the picks for my contests that I find online.
Just posting picks here in case you all can use them.
This year my system is based on "If you don't have a QB, you don't have an offense".
I use several factors to find the picks, but basically it's based on the QBR ranking at ESPN, and (1) the team ranking of a site I use (there are so many different ones, hard to pick just one), (2) the game winner predictions and (3)the PASS DEF ranking, all from the same site.
This week is the first week I am tracking the picks in my contests. I kinda watched and tweeked the system the first few weeks and am sticking with what I ended up this week.
I only do the site's top 25 team/game matchups. Then I find the consensus of the contest players (they cannot pick DOGS). Any consensus above 80% is a play against. Any consensus over 50% on DOGS is a play against.
Using Contest Lines
(RANK) / TEAM / PICK (Consensus Picks)/(Special notes)
(1) Wash-19 ......Ariz+19 (83%Wash) (Ariz- higher Pass Def ranking)
(2) USC- 22 ......USC -22
(3) ND-5' ......ND-5' (52%/72% Duke)
(4) Oreg-27' ......Oreg-27'
(6) Mich -17' ......Mich -17'
(8) OKL-19' ......OKL-19'
(9) TEX-16 ......TEX-16 (61%/75% Kansas)
(11) ALA-14' .....ALA-14'
(13) Penn ST-26...Penn ST -26
(14) GEO-14' ......Auburn+14' (higher Pass Def ranking)
(16) LOUIS-3 ......NCST+3 (higher Pass Def ranking)
(17) TAM-6' .......TAM-6' (60%/58% Arkansas)
(18) LSU-2' .......Miss+2' (higher Pass Def ranking)
(19) Oreg St-4 ....Oreg St-4 (58%/54% Utah)
(20) Florida+1 ....Kentucky-1 (*see note below)
(25) Maryland-14..Maryland -14
**Missing rankings=BYE
*Whenever a higher ranked team is getting points, I always will take the team giving the points. Florida has the higher QBR, higher ranking and the higher Pass Def, but it doesn't matter. Take the other team. Small sample size, but, last week it was Ucla(10) getting points from (26)Utah and ND(1) getting points from Ohio St(5). Both Utah and Ohio St won, Ohio St ATS/Push.
Those of you familiar with the Covers contest consensus know that there are two, one is the general public and the second one is the experts, thus the two different consensus % above.
I know this is late and most of the games are already played or are being played now, but I just wanted to leave this here, see how it does and if worthwhile, continue posting the remainder of the season.
Any questions/feedback welcomed.
Good luck with your bets!
Every year I try to find something to get a system started and this year is no different, with the exception that I now have the time to invest in the system......aka research.
I do not bet real money, just use the picks for my contests that I find online.
Just posting picks here in case you all can use them.
This year my system is based on "If you don't have a QB, you don't have an offense".
I use several factors to find the picks, but basically it's based on the QBR ranking at ESPN, and (1) the team ranking of a site I use (there are so many different ones, hard to pick just one), (2) the game winner predictions and (3)the PASS DEF ranking, all from the same site.
This week is the first week I am tracking the picks in my contests. I kinda watched and tweeked the system the first few weeks and am sticking with what I ended up this week.
I only do the site's top 25 team/game matchups. Then I find the consensus of the contest players (they cannot pick DOGS). Any consensus above 80% is a play against. Any consensus over 50% on DOGS is a play against.
Using Contest Lines
(RANK) / TEAM / PICK (Consensus Picks)/(Special notes)
(1) Wash-19 ......Ariz+19 (83%Wash) (Ariz- higher Pass Def ranking)
(2) USC- 22 ......USC -22
(3) ND-5' ......ND-5' (52%/72% Duke)
(4) Oreg-27' ......Oreg-27'
(6) Mich -17' ......Mich -17'
(8) OKL-19' ......OKL-19'
(9) TEX-16 ......TEX-16 (61%/75% Kansas)
(11) ALA-14' .....ALA-14'
(13) Penn ST-26...Penn ST -26
(14) GEO-14' ......Auburn+14' (higher Pass Def ranking)
(16) LOUIS-3 ......NCST+3 (higher Pass Def ranking)
(17) TAM-6' .......TAM-6' (60%/58% Arkansas)
(18) LSU-2' .......Miss+2' (higher Pass Def ranking)
(19) Oreg St-4 ....Oreg St-4 (58%/54% Utah)
(20) Florida+1 ....Kentucky-1 (*see note below)
(25) Maryland-14..Maryland -14
**Missing rankings=BYE
*Whenever a higher ranked team is getting points, I always will take the team giving the points. Florida has the higher QBR, higher ranking and the higher Pass Def, but it doesn't matter. Take the other team. Small sample size, but, last week it was Ucla(10) getting points from (26)Utah and ND(1) getting points from Ohio St(5). Both Utah and Ohio St won, Ohio St ATS/Push.
Those of you familiar with the Covers contest consensus know that there are two, one is the general public and the second one is the experts, thus the two different consensus % above.
I know this is late and most of the games are already played or are being played now, but I just wanted to leave this here, see how it does and if worthwhile, continue posting the remainder of the season.
Any questions/feedback welcomed.
Good luck with your bets!