EP36's TOTAL-itarian Nation

EaglesPhan36 · 09-26-09, 04:50 PM

7. BYU/Colorado State OVER 55.5 (-115)
BYU will be pissed coming into this one after last week's error fest against Florida State. BYU still managed 28 points in that one, but gave up a whopping 54. Colorado State is 3-0 and has been steady, but not overly spectacular offensively. They average 350+ yards per game, over 200 in the air and about 136 on the ground. BYU has been stingy on defense vs. the pass, but has been a bit vulnerable to the run, yielding 152 yards per game on the ground. CSU has struggled vs. the pass, giving up 243 yards per game and BYU should be able to attack them there and then pound Harvey Unga on the ground. Against lesser competition, the Rams have been giving up 20 ppg, so BYU should light up the scoreboard as they look to bounce back. CSU will need to have success on the ground to open up their big play passing attack - if they can get 21+ ... look for BYU to do the rest and for me to become a Fat Cat.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-26-09, 07:59 PM

Washington play booked at +9.5 (-105)

EaglesPhan36 · 10-01-09, 06:10 PM

Week #3: 3-4 (-0.90)

OVERALL: 13-17 (-5.23)

Week #4
1. Colorado/West Virginia OVER 55 (-108): Supposedly sharp money is on the over, which means nothing, but I mention it because people seem to do that when they post thinking people care. Heh. W.Virginia has been solid scoring-wise, putting up 30+ per game. At home in a nationally televised game against a Colorado team that struggled to stop Toledo - team ranked in the same neighborhood statistically as WV offensively - the Mountaineers should continue with the 30+ numbers. I think they need to get to 35 or more to get this done. Colorado may not move the ball all that well, but they can pass with a little success and probably will have to play catch-up most of the night in that manner. WVU (Jarret Brown 5 INT) does turn it over a bit, so that could set up the Buffs with their best field position. I've sucked wind here in the last week in all sports, so fade away.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-01-09, 10:02 PM

Finally caught a f*cking break this week!

EaglesPhan36 · 10-02-09, 11:39 PM

2. Toledo -5 (-105): Toledo has a vastly superior offense that averages 473+ yards of total offense & 31.5 ppg. Conversely, Ball State is averaging just 18.2 ppg and is nowhere near as dynamic on offense. Toledo is leaky on D, which might keep Ball State around ... but in the end, the Cardinals are not much better defensively - so the superior offense should work a W. Ball State is also 0-4, having lost all 4 games by a TD or more.

3. Clemson/Maryland OVER 48 (-107): Maryland has had issues defensively, giving up over 200 yards on the ground and in the air per game. Clemson's rushing attack should have plenty of success and give Kyle Parker some opps in the passing game. Maryland actually has some good passing numbers, but some of that can be attributed to playing from behind a lot.

4. Auburn +125: The Tigers have won four straight in this series and have the more diverse offense of the two. Auburn has put up 37 points or more in each game this season, while Tennessee has been very uneven offensively. Auburn may give up some yards & points, but Crompton's tendency to turn the ball over for the Vols might make the difference and give Auburn a shot for the outright win.

5. California +4: Cal comes home after the crushing and unexpected debacle in Oregon. USC got on track with a dominant win over Washington State, but this game figures to be competitive. Hard to believe Cal will lay two eggs in a row, but USC has won 4 straight in this series. Cal is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Keep in mind both of SC's road games have been played within this number this season at Washington & Ohio State.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-04-09, 12:43 AM

Week #4: 3-2 (+1.13)

OVERALL: 16-19 (-4.10)

Holy smokes, a winning week. Should have been 4-1 with Clemson and Maryland stuck on 45 through the entire 4th quarter. California officially is on my Go F yourself list.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-06-09, 05:31 PM

Week #5
1. Middle Tennessee State/Troy State OVER 56 (-110): Two teams facing off that play to their opponent's defensive weaknesses. Both MTSU & Troy have excellent passing attacks, ranking in the Top 30 for passing yardage. MTSU has scored 30+ in three straight games, while Troy is beginning to amp up their own offense after a slow start. Troy has scored 57 points in their last 2 games with the passing attack behind Levi Brown being one of the main reasons. Troy has also yielded 105 points through 4 games, one of the bottom 32 PPG against in D1. That includes giving up at least 27 points in 3 of 4. Both teams also struggle to stop the run, which although is a secondary concern on offense for both - could help the OVER in this case.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-09-09, 11:44 PM

2. Minnesota/Purdue OVER 51.5 (-110): Despite an inconsistent attack, Purdue has scored at least 21 points in all 5 of their games this season. The Boilermakers have done well through the air, averaging 258 ypg & another 150+ on the ground. Their D has given up no less than 24 points in any game. Minnesota should have success airing it out & they have managed at least 20 points in each game. Their D has had major issues against the run. Turnovers by both QBs will help here.

3. Wyoming/New Mexico UNDER 47.5 (-110): Lowly offense and snow in the forecast, sounds like a formula for not a ton of scoring. Wyoming is averaging just 20 ppg, but has put up 30 in each of their last 2. Both defenses stink, but I think the weather may be the X factor more-so.

4. Wisconsin +16 (-110): Wisconsin has an under-rated offensive attack IMO with a solid balance in the air and on the ground. Ohio State's D will be tested here and I think Wisconsin can stay within two TDs.

5. Idaho +165: The Vandals have a lethal offensive attack that should put up some numbers against a pretty rancid San Jose State defense that is giving up over 450 yard per game and about 33 points. San Jose State has had issues scoring and that won't help them keep up with the Vandals even at home.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-11-09, 11:52 AM

Week #5: 2-3 (-0.65)

OVERALL: 18-22 (-4.75)
Idaho saved the week as just a short loss. Disappointed especially with Wisconsin which completely fell apart in the 2nd half.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-17-09, 12:15 AM

Week #6
1. Iowa +115: This is a toss-up, but I am more confident in the defense of Iowa vs. Wisconsin's. Turnovers likely will play a big role in this one, but I think the Hawkeyes slip by with the win.

2. Wake Forest +7.5/+240 (0.5 unit on each): Surprising line IMO. Clemson's loss to Maryland was perplexing as the Terps have had some major issues this season defensively. Clemson's offense has been far too inconsistent with the special teams left to come up big for the Tigers to have chances to win. Riley Skinner and the Wake O are humming right now and will need to continue as their D is a little soft. Think Wake has a great shot to stay within a TD and if they can corral Spiller, the ML win is possible.

3. Missouri/Oklahoma State OVER 54.5 (+100): Oklahoma State's D is still a question mark as most offenses have had success. Mizzou should get back on track offensively with better weather this week vs. last. This will be the biggest test for the Tigers D which has been pretty stout to date. Even without Bryant and perhaps Kendall Hunter at RB, the Cowboys possess plenty of talent on O.

4. BYU/S.D. State OVER 53.5 (+100): This sets up to be another BYU blowout. BYU has rolled up 136 points in the last 3 weeks, an average of 44 per game. They have also let in 61 in that span. SD State should find this game to their liking as they will be behind most of the way and forced to throw which is all they really do (239 yards per game). The best offense SD State faced was Idaho and that yielded a 34-20 Idaho win. I expect at least that, probably a lot better for BYU in the neighborhood of 40+ points to 14-21 for SD State.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-17-09, 12:40 PM

5. [2nd Half] Northwestern/Michigan State OVER 23 (-110)
Just a hunch and by my record and early games today, my hunches suck.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-17-09, 01:39 PM

6. Boston College/N.C. State OVER 47 (-115)
Rain is apparently holding off till later and that is what I was waiting out for this one. Will be a little windy, but both teams have had defensive issues. NC State has given up 110 points in their last 3 games, an average of 36 ppg. Their offense has been solid after South Carolina stumped them in their opener. Since, they have put up 200 points in 5 games. Their aerial attack puts up over 250 yards and they gain 130+ on the ground. BC has been torn up for 118 points in the last four weeks, yielding an average of almost 30 ppg. Offensively, they were held in check by the tough Ds of Va.Tech & Clemson, but otherwise have been putting up points despite a pedestrian 300 yards per gam on offense. In ACC play, both BC home games have hit higher than this total and 3 of 4 conference games overall have hit for higher than this. For NC State, 5 of their 6 overall have hit higher than this posted #. If BC can find a way to get their passing game working, this OVER has an excellent shot as State has been lit up for over 800 yards in the air in the past two weeks by the likes od Duke & Wake Forest.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-17-09, 04:18 PM

7. [2nd Half] Nebraska/Texas Tech OVER 27.5 (-115)
Tech 2nd halves have been beacons for points. Nebraska is trailing big, so they will have to pass to catch up. Should mean a long 2nd half with plenty of clock stopping. Leach won't lift his foot off the Huskers' throats. Expecting many more points.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-21-09, 06:00 PM

Week #6: 4-3 (+0.94)

Week #7
1. Tulsa Team Total OVER 33.5 (-115)
UTEP has been an inconsistent threat offensively which has led me away from the over for the game & to Tulsa's team total. The Golden Hurricane have eclipsed this total in 3 of their 6 games this season and the UTEP defense looks ripe for the plucking. The Miners have given up 140 points in the last 3 weeks & at least 34 in 4 of 6 games overall. Tulsa has good balance with the run & pass and should exploit the UTEP defense which is giving up over 200+ yards of each per game. Tulsa may not be as explosive as last year's squad due to some offensive line issues, but this is a team they NEED to light up.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-23-09, 09:24 PM

2. Lousiana Tech +105
3. Kansas +7.5
4. Idaho +16
5. Oregon State +21