EP36's TOTAL-itarian Nation

[EaglesPhan36]

Howdy boys. Welcome to TOTAL-itarianism. The goal is for there to be no end to the authority we show the books when it comes to college footbal totals. Trying my hand at a season long college football thread. This is meant to be used for tracking purposes and any discussion you may have on my selections or ones that you like as well. I have found in most sports, that I prefer to play totals and feel as if I cap totals generally better than sides. So for this thread, the majority of plays will likely be totals with some sides/spreads sprinkled in.

No rules during the week with the weird schedules, but on Saturday I will adhere to my money management rule of playing 6 games MAX. All games listed are for one unit, unless otherwise noted.


Let's dominate the books!

PLAY #1: North Texas/Ball State OVER 57.5 (-105)
The Mean Green were simply horrible on the defensive side of the ball in 2008, hell they've been dead last in D1 as far as scoring defense two years running. They do return some starters, but is that saying much? The N.Texas secondary was probably the weakest link, so even with inexperience at QB for Ball State, the Cardinals could get off on the good foot and build some confidence for their new QB. They do return stud RB MiQuale Lewis. If Lewis gets going early, that could also open it up for Kelly Page and the passing attack. UNT does have the coaches' son, Riley Dodge, in at QB which is a tremendous upgrade from the slackjawed yokels leading the attack last season. The Mean Green may choose to attack Ball State's inexperienced secondary as well, so if they find some success - we could see some points on the board from UNT and their spread offense. I think if UNT lays 20 points or more on the board, this has a great shot.

[kmarinouofm]

like the pick homie.. i got them in a teaser.. lets get it..

[MexicanStallion]

It wouldn't surprise me to see you have a successul season

I play more spreads usually, so I look forward to your totals plays.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks guys. I won't be surprised to start a little slow with totals because it is a little difficult to gauge exactly how a team is going to come out of the chute with new personnel/packages, etc. I think playing spreads/sides early is probably a little easier to cap, so I may have more sides this weekend, we'll see what hits me.

[EaglesPhan36]

UNT/Ball State line dropped to 57.5. Now, booked at -105.

[EaglesPhan36]

F*ck me. It's at 55 now. Might ante up another half unit at this price. Guess some "sharp" minds are on the UNDER.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #2: North Texas/Ball State OVER 55 (-102) [0.5 units]
Might start off in a hole, but getting a lower line for a good price, dummy do it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Heh. Two INTs around the goal line. Guess that was planned. Should be 17-21 points already on the board here or more.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #1 Result: [L]
Play #2 Result: [L] 0-2 (-1.56)

Well that seems about right. 10-0 at the half. 10-17 points left on the field with missed FG & turnovers in the red zone. No way in hell this even approaches the total, even with quintuple OT. No point in whining about it or following the 2nd half. Slow start as predicted.

[EaglesPhan36]

SEPTEMBER 5th
Play #3: Oklahoma State -5 (-103)
The Cowboys have their big guns returning offensively with QB Zach Robinson & WR Dez Bryant. Don't forget RB Kendall Hunter and this well-oiled point scoring machine shouldn't miss a beat. OSU isn't a great defensive team, but they'll have a shot to keep Georgia at-bay as new QB Joe Cox tries to get the Dawgs off to a good start. I think on the road, the heir to Matthew Stafford could struggle and the Cowboys should be looking to make a statement in Game 1.

Play #4: Louisiana Tech/Auburn UNDER 45 (-105)
Can't see Louisiana Tech's offense doing a ton against Auburn's defense. Auburn has Tulsa's offensive coordinator now in charge of their offense, but I don't think they will be turning into an offensive juggernaut overnight. They do have some good returning pieces, including QB Kodi Burns & big boy RB Ben Tate. Auburn will likely look to open up their attack against what was a leaky La.Tech passing D in 2008, still if they score in the high 20s, I think they'd be happy. Auburn's D is anchored by all-everything DE Greg Coleman and he'll be charged with pressuring La.Tech when they do pass. although expect more runs. This one also I think could be more competitive than you might think of a SEC-WAC match-up. I see the total hopefully falling in the mid-to-upper 30s.

Play #6: [Moneyline Dawg O' The Week] Baylor +115
Art Briles is looking to take the Baylor program to the next level, which after a 4 win season would likely be focused on a winning season. With wins still looking tough to come by against the quality of the Big 12, this is one the Bears will want badly. With QB Robert Griffin running the show, Baylor should be efficient in moving the chains and putting up points. All the young offensive talent for Baylor is a year old, like Kendall Wright & Jay Finley. Wake Forest is no longer a football afterthought, but their defense has some question marks with four NFL draft picks missing from the squad. QB Riley Skinner is a solid game manager, but does not have the explosive quality of Griffin nor as many weapons.

[Rixsaw]

deleted...

good luck bro.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #7: Maryland/California OVER 50 (-107)

Expecting Cal to go all out to exact a little revenge for last year's flop. They should roll and that should mean plenty of points. Maryland needs to hit 17-20 at least to get this, I believe.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #3 Result: [W] OSU 24-10
Play #4 Result: [L] Auburn 37-13
Play #5 Result: [W] Baylor 24-21
Play #6 Result: [W] Cal 52-13

Only 6 plays have been made, my number skills blow. 3-4-6?


3-3 (+0.54)

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #7: Cincinnati +6 (-130)
Siding with the team with less question marks at the offensive skill positions. The Bearcats return QB Tony Pike & All American candidate Gilyard at WR along with a good stable of RBs. Lots has been made about how many players they lose on defense, but the switch to a 3-4 design could help negate some of the personnel questions early with better scheming perhaps. Rutgers has questions at QB & WR replacing Teel & Britt. Their defense should be fairly strong, but they are only returning 6 starters I believe, so they will be adjusting as well. Cincy has had Rutgers number, winning SU in three straight meetings. This figures to be a tough game on the road in Jersey, but I think Cincy has a fighting chance to win SU and getting 6 points works for me.

[phillip]

I think Cincy wins straight up.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #7 Result: [W] Cincinnati BIG

4-3 (+1.54)

What a blood bath.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #8: Georgia Tech -4 (-120)
Both have solid running games, Clemson with Spiller and Ga.Tech with their option attack featuring QB Nesbitt & RB Dwyer. Where Tech has the edge is at QB with Nesbitt, while Clemson is working with freshman Kyle Parker who was 9 of 20 for 169 yards last week. Both defenses are solid, but will face starkly different tests than their Week 1 opposition. Last year, the Yellow Jacket attack crushed Clemson on the ground for 207 yards. Ga.Tech also gets back their speed threat, Roddy Jones in the backfield to add another dimension. Clemson had issues running the ball with Spiller out, but was able to counter that with a decent performance from QB Cullen Harper. Turnovers were huge with the Tigers pumping in 6, while Tech turned it over twice. The Jackets had some fumbling issues in Week 1, so that has to be addressed. However, with a year under their belt in Paul Johnson's offense, Nesbitt, Dwyer & company figure to be as good or better than last season, while Clemson may experience growing pains with the freshman at the helm. Look for Tech to try and bottle up Spiller and force the young signal caller to make plays. If they can do that, they will have a shot to win the turnover battle. Clemson had two special teams TDs in Week 1, so that will also be a focus for Tech. This game should be close, but I think in the end the Jackets will win by 6-7 points.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #8 Result: [L] 4-4 (+0.34)

Play #9: Fresno State +8.5 (-103)
Wisconsin struggled to get by Northern Illinois in their opener, 28-20. The Badgers actually did a better job of passing the ball with QB Scott Tolzien tossing for 257 yards, but he got picked twice. With no P.J. Hill, RB Zach Brown was top man with 51 yards. Wisconsin made NIU work hard for their 100 rushing yards on 35 carries. Fresno figures to present a larger test as the Bulldogs tore up FCS UC-Davis for 310 yards with Ryan Mathews chewing up 106 yards on just 11 carries. Ryan Colburn didn't have to do much at QB with 161 yards, coming on just 5 of 9. The Bulldogs are a solid crew under Coach Pat Hill and they do travel fairly well. With Wisconsin having some issues putting away NIU last week, expect Fresno State to stick around as well and play this game inside a TD or closer.

Play #10: East Carolina/West Virginia OVER 44 (-110)
Should be a competitive battle here with one of C-USA's top squads travelling to Morgantown to take on a revamped W.Virginia team. ECU had a tough time dispatching Appalachian State in their opener, but held on 29-24. Dominique Lindsay was solid at RB with 100+ yards, while QB Patrick Pinkney still showed some inconsistency at the helm. He was picked off twice. ECU showed some problems on D as well, giving up 17 4th quarter points last week. WV churned out a big weekend against Liberty Noel Devine going for 100+ on the ground, while full-time QB Jarrett Brown had a big day with 243 yards passing and another 69 on the ground. WV's defense was a bit shaky in defending the aerial attack of a mundane Liberty squad, yielding 210 yards passing. Should be some good offense on display with WV looking to repay ECU for last year's upset. Pinkney's troubles at QB could yield some TO's that lead to cheap field position and extra scores, which can only help the cause.

Play #11: [Moneyline Dawg o' the Week] North Texas +120
UNT was a surprise winner in Week 1, upsetting MAC's Bowling Green on the road. North Texas rolled up 512 total yards in the game, but managed just 20 points. They'll need to improve that conversion percentage of scoring this week to pull off a win, but come into a good spot here. Ohio played tough in their opener, but lost to UCONN 23-16. Their offense had issues with just 247 total yards. Ohio struggled defensively to stop the run, where UNT gashed Bowling Green for 296 yards in the opener. If UNT's defense can come through with another strong performance, their offense seems like it might be taking off & could have plenty to lead the Mean Green to a 2-0 start.

Play #12: Utah/San Jose State OVER 48 (-105)
Not too in-depth here. SJ State was gashed by the rushing attack of USC in Week 1 and gave up 56 points. Utah may or may not be that potent, but QB Terrance Cain looked like the real deal against Utah State and RB Matt Asiata added 136 yards and 1 TD. The Utes scored 35 in their opener and they could just be getting started. I expect them to get at least 30 or more in this one, so that would leave the Spartans to needing to get a couple TDs + some change to finish this off. SJ State does have a decent passing attack and they might find a little more success this week.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #13: [2nd Half] Fresno State/Wisconsin OVER 26 (-110)
The Wisconsin D is soft and has had troubles vs. Fresno's passing attack in the 1st half. Colburn has 170+ passing yards for the Bulldogs. On the flipside, Wisconsin has found success through the air and I would expect will continue to try & exploit that match-up, especially if they remain behind in the game. The passing attack appears to be the Badgers strength with Tolzien, so now the coach just needs to understand that. Both teams have made big plays in the passing game and appear to have nice mismatches in those match-ups. Both rushing attacks have done OK, but not anything spectacular of yet. 21-17 Fresno at the half.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #10 changed to OVER 43 at -108

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #9 Result: [W] Wisconsin 34-31 (OT)
Play #13 Result: [W] 27 Points (34-31, was 21-17 at half - needed OT, but a W is a W)

6-4 (+2.34)

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #14: [2nd Half] Houston/Oklahoma State OVER 34.5 (-110) [0.5 units]
Keenum & the Coogs are doing whatever they want against the OSU defense which looks more like last year's shaky self after they shut down a pedestrian Georgia squad in the opener. Close to 300 yards of total offense in the 1st half. Houston has 24, but should have anywhere from 3-14 points more after turning it over twice deep in Cowboys' territory. OSU has no choice, but to open the offense up more. Zach Robinson has been steady in the 1st half for over 100 yards, but no big plays. Both rushing attacks have churned up some yards, Coogs looking better there as well. In all, Cowboys look stale and shocked as HOU recovers an onside kick. Looking for OSU to come out with some fire in the second half, after all - they're coached BY A MAN! I don't think Houston lets up or changes their offensive game plan, knowing OSU can easily make a run in the 2nd half. It's a lot of points, but between these two, it can get done.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #15: South Carolina/Georgia UNDER 40 (-110)
This is traditionally a defensive battle and after Week 1, it appears both teams' offenses have a long way to go in order to become productive. Georgia only put up 10 on OSU. Looking at OSU's battle with Houston today, you can see their D is still suspect at times, so UGA certainly is not a juggernaut with Cox still learning at QB. Georgia had just 95 yards on 30 carries rushing last week. SC barely grazed the scoreboard themselves with 7 against N.C. State as they looked so-so behind Stephen Garcia who had 148 yards passsing, but the running game was stymied for just 108 yards on 42 carries. 10 straight in this series have played below this total and 12 straight have hit UNDER in all between the Dawgs & the Gamecocks. The defenses could outscore the offenses in this one & I'll take a shot that this one ends up with another score along the lines of 17-14, 21-17 or less.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #10: [W] W.Virginia 35-20
Play #11: [L] Ohio 31-30 (2OT)
Play #12: [L] In Progess, but no chance
Play #14: [W] Houston 45-35 (49 2nd half points)
Play #15: [L] Georgia 41-37

Overall: 8-7 (+0.64)

Some disappointing results for me. The North Texas won hurt the most as they lost in double OT with a backup QB, giving up the winning score on 4th & goal from the 16. Georgia & SC decided to score, WTF?

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #16: Northern Illinois vs. Purdue OVER 53.5 (-110)
Purdue has had plenty of problems stopping opponents this year as they have yielded 69 points in two games. They have been giving both against the pass & the run. NIU is better running, so that is where the Huskies have to exploit the Boilers D. Offensively, they have been rolling to keep up with their defensive inadequacies, scoring 88 points. Purdue QB Joey Elliott has thrown 5 INTs in just two games, so turnovers could be a big part of this one also. Expect Purdue to continue to roll up numbers, while NIU should be able to score some vs. Purdue's leaky D.

Play #17: [Moneyline Dawg 'O the Week] Utah +180

Play #18: Buffalo +4.5 (-105)

Play #19: W.Virginia +7.5 (-105)

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #19: [2nd Half] E.Carolina vs. N.Carolina OVER 23 (-115)
Heels moving the ball easily against the Pirates defense late in the half. ECU will have to keep up to stay in this game. Pirates 1st drive will be a key as they need to come away with points. They need to find a way to run the ball effectively, otherwise Pinkney will be under a lot of pressure to make plays. Turnovers could help this if that is the case.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #20: Utah +5 (-120)
Adding this. One unit with the points and the Utah ML play is for 0.5 units. Time to start winning.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #21: [2nd Half] Wyoming/Colorado UNDER 23 (-115)
Plugging along.

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #18 booked at +5 (+100)

[EaglesPhan36]

Play #22: Hawaii +7 (+103)
Hawaii has the offensive attack to exploit UNLV's weaker pass D. I've been getting beat like a dog all day, so fade away.

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

keep up the good work

[EaglesPhan36]

Week 2: 2-6 (-4.97)

Another fantastic showing. Close on most of these, but this ain't hand grenades.

[EaglesPhan36]

OVERALL: 10-13 (-4.33)

Week #3
1. TCU +120 (Clemson): TCU has a more consistent offense, especially with a plus in experience at QB with Andy Dalton. If the Horned Frogs can contain the Tigers' special teams, they have a chance for the big road win.

2. Southern Miss/Kansas OVER 58 (-105): Through 3 games each, these two teams have combined for 242 points. Both are equally devistating by land and by air, averaging over 200 yards of each. This will be the first real test for both defenses, but KU may already have the blueprint for success as Virginia rolled Southern Miss for over 300 yards passing last week. This one looks to be an offensive fiesta.

3. North Carolina +120 (Georgia Tech): Good match-up between UNC & Ga.Tech. Edge to the Heels for me based on better defense and they showed they can shut down the multi-option offense last year.

4. Washington +8 (-103) [Stanford]: The line shows a lack of respect for either Washington or USC as the Huskies come in off their upset of the Trojans. Probably expecting a let-down factor, but I think the Huskies have shown early under Sarkisian that they are full of fight. They have to come to play early, but this is a generous line considering the Huskies have every chance to believe they can win this straight up.

5. [3 Team 6.5 pt. Teaser] UNC +9, S.MISS/KU OVER 51.5, WASHINGTON +14.5: Pays 1.6:1

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

UNC looks good, as much as I hate to admit it

[EaglesPhan36]

6. [2nd Half] Kansas -6 (-105)
Kansas is dominating offensively, running 53 plays to Southern Miss' 30. Reesing has rolled up 240 yards in the air while the Jayhawks had added 113 on the ground. KU has kept Southern Miss' rushing attack in check, so if they can make some stops against the pass - they should be able to finish this off & you're getting a half point over the original line of 13.5 for the game.