2021-22 Dapper Dan Picks - College Football Analysis

**Smutbucket** · 08-28-21, 08:50 AM

First play of the season: (will count this game in Week 1 total after this week instead of adding a Week 0 to my spreadsheets)
Dapper Dan Picks 2021 season (0-0)

2021 - Week 0
Nebraska -7 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
This is a huge coaching mismatch and we have a very well established system entering their 4th year together at Nebraska and Illinois who did a total coaching re-vamp during the off-season with sub-par coaches. Brett Beliema is now the head coach at Illinois, he had a good run in the Big 10 over a decade ago at Wisconsin but has struggled since moving to Arkansas in the SEC in 2013 (first year went 3-7 at Arkansas) and moved on to a few assistant jobs in the NFL the last few years before returning back to college football this year. His offensive coordinator is Tony Peterson, who had a good run at Louisiana tech but he always struggled against the bigger schools and always in his first year establishing his offense. At Louisiana Tech, in his first year, he ranked 103rd in offensive yards per play and even though he improved to 12th in ypp in his 3rd year at L.Tech, he didn’t have the same success when he moved to East Carolina in 2016-2018, where he ranked 75th in his first year in ypp and dropped to 103rd in his 3rd year. Ryan Walters a very inexperienced defensive coordinator who piggybacked off the great defensive minded head coach Barry Odom at Missouri for a couple years but didn't have much success. Brandon Peters should start at QB who struggled at Michigan and hasn't been much of a threat anywhere with his athleticism, he went 1-3 as a starter last year with his one win being against Nebraska - REVENGE TIME! Over at Nebraska, Scott Frost is desperate for a good winning season after struggling his first few seasons since moving over to the BIG 10. He’s entering his 4th year with senior Adrian Martinez at the helm who has shown sparks of greatness but was often hampered by injuries in his first two years and prone to big mistakes, which he hopefully has learned from. Their strength should be their defense as Erik Chinader, who came from UCF with Frost enters his 4th year in the program as well with 9 returning starters and ranking 27th of total % of tackles returning on defense. Seems like the majority of public and handicappers are on Illinois moving the line down but I think the oddsmakers were closer to the actual spread with the opening line being -9. I bought the half point with my bookie down to -6.5 at -120 and you should too but I think we win this one comfortably regardless.

**joco** · 08-28-21, 11:56 AM

Lets gooooo

**Smutbucket** · 09-02-21, 01:29 PM

Legooooo Jocooooo

Dapper Dan Picks (will be adding some more Saturday morning)
YTD: (0-1) -1 units
2021 Week 1 -
Minnesota +14 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
We have a nice little experience chart mismatch in week 1 so we take the big dog who has proven capable of keeping up with tough competition. Minnesota is one of the most experienced teams returning by Phill Steele’s charts as they rank 1st in experience and Big play D ranks, 2nd in offensive line starts, 10th in tackles % returning and 28th in % of yards returning including starting QB Tanner Morgan and dynamic RB Mohamad Ibrahim. Their offense last season was well rounded, ranking 19th in efficiency, 24th in explosiveness, and 12th at finishing drives. On the other side you have Ohio State who ranks 129th in experience, 100th in o-line starts, and 122nd in big play D. On offense they rank 121st with only 45% of their yards returning and on defense they rank 128th with only 48% of their total tackles returning. They lost Justin Fields who accounted for most of their yards as well as extending plays with his athleticism and giving their playmakers time to find open space. Their offensive line struggled (even with Justin Fields running around back there) ranking 103rd in sack% allowed last season. CJ Stroud, redshirt freshman, isn’t nearly as fast or mobile and was a pro-style QB in highschool with only one breakout big run in his highschool career. He will be in a tough environment and there’s a good chance he’s not ready for the big-stage. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against Ohio State as these big name schools are usually overvalued against these smaller schools. Good to see the majority on Ohio State as well.

Michigan State +3 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
I think the wrong team is favored here and although I think MSU wins outright I prefer to take the points to be safe in these BIG 10 defensive matchups. MSU’s offense should see a spark this season with transfer of experienced Temple starting QB, Anthony Russo, last year QB play was their biggest downfall ranking 122nd in INT % at 5%. The lack of a passing game also made it tough for them to run, as they only gained 10 or more yards on 17 runs of its 239 rush attempts, ranking 125th in the country. They have a very deep receiving corps this year and two new RB transfers to add to their stable of backs - I'm sure one will emerge as a star behind this (hopefully improved) veteran offensive line that returns all 5 starters and ranks 4th in total offensive line starts. Mel Tucker and Scottie Hazelton brought a whole new defensive scheme ast year switching to a 4-2-5. Expect the defense to make less mistakes and blown coverages with 7 returning starters in their 2nd year. On the other side of the ball, the inexperienced of Northwestern should be noticeable as they rank 130th in phill steeles experience chart, 112 in career offensive line starts, and 126th in Big play D rank. Last year although their defense was one of the best in the nation, only 4 starters return and their longtime Defensive Coordinator of 12 years, Mike Hankwitz, retired going out with one of his best seasons under his belt. Their offense heavily relied on Peyton Ramsey who is now gone and other players will have to step up and make plays but may take some time. MSU won last year in this matchup 29-20 and I think the score will be similar this season.

Indiana +3.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Looking forward to this season for Indiana as they had a great 2020 and return mostly in-tact with 19 returning starters, and many of them even expected to be backups as their talent level has risen. Starting QB, Michael Penix Jr is entering his 4th year working with Tom Allen and OC Nick Sheridan, and it shows as he looked like matured a lot last season completing 56% of his throws with 14 TDs and only 4 INTs averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. Their offense although not very explosive (ranked 99th in explosiveness) was great at finishing drives and long slow methodical drives ranking 31st in finishing drives and 31st in Field Position. Their defense was equally well rounded and they led the nation in red zone stop % and ranked 11th at finishing drives and 33rd in Field Position. They were very opportunistic averaging 2.5 takeaways per game (ranking 4th in nation) and are a very disciplined team ranking 5th in penalties per play. They were tough against the run last year only allowing 4 yards per carry. Iowa will need to establish the run as Spencer Petras isn’t much of a QB, ranking 114th last year according to PFF with a 56.9 passing grade. Iowa is ranked 112th in Phil’s experience chart opposed to Indiana’s 40th so that's another advantage. Indiana is 0-3 in their last 3 ATS against Iowa and this is the year to break that trend. I bought to +4 with my book and you should too if you can get -120 or below.

**Smutbucket** · 09-04-21, 09:23 AM

Week 1 Additions:
Rutgers -15 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
These two programs seem to be going in opposite directions as Temple is losing quite a bit of experience to the transfer portal including 3 starting linemen (one transferred to Rutgers), leading rusher, and 3rd year starting QB, Anthony Russo. They rank 108th in Phill Steele’s exp chart with ranking 104th in % of yards on offense returning and 105th in % of tackles on defense returning. Their coaching staff is sub-par after losing Geoff Collins in 2018, Rod Carey and his OC, Mike Uremovich have come over from NIU and have very short resumes and limited to small schools unlike Schaino on the other side who helped lead the 2000 Miami Hurricanes as DC to an 11-1 year. Their experience charts also show a mis-match as they rank 19th overall and 30th in offensive yards returning and 32nd on defense. 19 of their starters from last year return although their offense struggled a bit last season, it was still a drastic improvement from 2019 and their defense had its strengths including creating havoc in the backfield ranking 11th averaging almost 8 TFLs per game, a weakness of this Temple offense last season that ranked 75th in TFL allowed. Starting QB Noah Vedral is back with his young fresh offensive coordinator, Sean Gleeson who’s willing to take risks and big shots down the field and open up the playbook. Something last year was very limited without the returning experience and regulations implemented last season. I think Rutgers takes this one down easily despite them being 3-6 last season against an exclusively BIG 10 schedule, much more difficult than an all AAC schedule where Temple won 1 game and lost 6.

Arkansas -19.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Arkansas put together one hell of a coaching staff and I expect them to make big strides in their 2nd year despite struggling last season in an ALL SEC schedule. Barry Odom is a top tier defensive coordinator, interesting tidbit from 2012-2015 he improved every season in yards per play allowed, with two different teams. In ‘12-’14 he was at Memphis and ranked 39th 1st year, 35th, 2nd year and 14th in his 3rd year. Then he moved to DC at Missouri where he was ranked 3rd in ypp allowed in his first year but then he got promoted to Head Coach and the defense went to shit, HA!. Kendall Briles, outside of the last two years (you can't succeed if Taggart is your head coach and last year covid year) has led upper echelon offenses and from ‘15-’17 his offenses averaged a ranking of 17th in ypp. Their QB KJ Jefferson saw some action at the end of last year after crappy Felipe got hurt and I liked what I saw from KJ. He’s elusive and has that evasion quality thats hard to measure, size, and a pretty good arm. Rice on the other hand returns their same crappy coaching staff, New OC but Bloomgren runs a power run offense like he did at Stanford but that doesnt work at Rice when your offensive line is going to be pushed around by this SEC defensive line. In 2019 they were 3-9 and last year they were 2-3 and played extremely crappy competition, unlike Arkansas. Arkansas wins by 3 TD+.

Miami +19.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I am a biased Miami Hurricane fan so I will keep this short and sweet. Miami ranks 8th nationally in experience charts and 1st in total offensive line starts as 4 of the 5 starters return (and they all have a ton of experience). Alabama on the other hand ranks 124th in experience charts and lost 78% of their offensive yards last year ranking 129th in the league. Manny Diaz is back to calling defensive plays (for a few years he didnt when Miami defense was shitty but when he called their plays there were always top tier) Rhett Lashlee is entering his 2nd year as OC and I have him as a very highly rated OC with his stints at Auburn as a disciple of Malzahn afterwards at SMU went from 76th is first year to 31st in 2nd year. I will also be sprinkling some on the Miami ML too

UCLA +2.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Chip Kelly is returning for his 4th year with the same two coordinators and a very experienced team with 20 returning starters including starting QB, and mobile threat, DTR. All 5 of their starters on the offensive line return that were ranked 39th in line yards, 11th in opportunity rate, and 25th in yards per rush. UCLA ran for 200 yards in 5 of it’s last 7 games. LSU’s rush defense was a point of weakness last year as their defensive line (who all return) ranked 80th in line yards, 112th in opportunity rate, and ranked 94th in yards per rush attempt allowed. Although UCLA’s defense struggled last year, they improved tremendously from the year before averaging 1.27 yards per play less in 2020, leading the nation by that improvement category. LSU defenses was one of the worst statistically in the school program and brought in a new defensive coordinator, Daron Jones, who has never been a defensive coordinator at the collegiate level before and has a resume full of assistant secondary coaches for various NFL teams. Their offense couldn’ run the ball very effectively at all last year and ranked 108th last year in yards per rush attempt. I got a really bad line on pickmonitor which I used to track but you should have got at least 3 points but I think UCLA wins regardless. If you’re an action Junkie be sure to sprinkle some on the over too. Bookies already starting with screwing with everyone's minds early with these line movements as the total for this one opened at 70.5 and dropped to 64. This scared me off the total so.

Cal -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Nevada TT Under 24.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Tired of hearing these small schools being hyped after putting up “BIG NUMBERS” against their cupcake all in conference shit schedules last season. Nevada is one of them, their offense “improved tremendously” from last season increasing their points per game from 21 in 2019 to 30 in 2020! Of course they did, their schedule was a joke with their toughest opponent being San Jose State with a Sagarin strength of schedule ranking of 108th. Last year Cal had more Covid protocol BS then any other team so the poor numbers last year shouldn’t hold much weight. They only played 4 games and before each game 50% of their team told they couldn’t play with back ups everywhere. Head coach Just Wilcox knows how to coach defense and is one of my top rated defensive coaches and he has a very experienced team and QB Chase Garbers returning who I really like and has battled injuries in years past. Expect me to be betting this Cal team a lot this year as I have them highly rated and go ahead and take their TT win total for the season at 6 wins.

**Smutbucket** · 09-10-21, 10:26 AM

DAPPER DAN PICKS
WEEK 0/1 RESULTS: 5-4 (+0.75 UNITS)
SEASON YTD: 5-4 (+0.75 UNITS)

More to come tomorrow morning....
Week 2:
Air Force -6 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Even though these academy matchups are usually close games there’s reason to believe Air Force will run away with this one like they did last season when they beat down Navy 40-7. Air Force has a record number of turnbacks (their version of red-shirts), 35 this season due to the weird COVID scheduling last year and many players sitting out who saw lots of action in 2019. Starting QB, Haziq Daniels returns who averaged almost 10 yards per carry against Navy last year. Navy looked in-capable of stopping their rushing attack allowing 7 yards per carry, whereas on offense they could barely muster 2.5 yards per carry themselves against Air Force, a good indicator that Air Force was dominating in the trenches. Air Force did lose a lot of their starters from last season, including all five starting lineman on offense but they looked good against Lafayette averaging 5.5 yards per carry rushing for 370 yards. Navy on the other side loses their starting QB from last season, and this years frontrunner who started last week, Tai Lavatai, got injured in the 4th qtr last game so expect to see a heavy dose of Xavier Arline who struggled the few times he did see action as he only carried for 3.5 yards per carry last season and doesn’t take care of the ball well which could be disastrous in this Navy option offense, expect to see a few turnovers from him. Navy’s program doesn’t look to be in good shape after last year's 3-5 record against a weak schedule and getting blown out 49-7 in week 1 by Marshall. Air Force wins this game soundly. This is also one of the largest PFF mismatches on paper if you look at the game 1 grades for each team compared to their offensive/defensive counterparts.

Michigan -6.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
I was a little worried about what to expect out of Michigan last week after losing good ole defensive mastermind Don Brown (Arizona now - bet!) this year but they looked strong in their first outing against a very tough Western Michigan offense. They allowed an opening drive TD and a TD at the end of the game when it was 47-7 but besides that stifled the Broncos offense who only averaged 5.2 yards per pass and 3.9 yards per rush. Offensive Coordinator, Josh Gattis, finally looks to have found a good starting QB in Cade McNamara as the offense averaged 12.7 yards per pass attempt and 7.8 yards per rush. I have Josh Gattis as a highly rated offensive coordinator as not only did he help lead Alabama in 2018 to a national title he also helped turn around the Penn State offense who ranked 120th in yards per play in his first year in 2014 (as a WR coach) but in 2016 he took over play calling duties and they ranked 17th in his first year and 16th in yards per play in his 2nd year before going to Alabama. Washington’s football program may see a big drop off this year as they lost program changing head coach, Chris Peterson in 2019 to retirement. Jimmy Lake was promoted from DC to head coach from within but has virtually no head coaching (or important assistant roles) outside of his long term at Washington. OC, John Donovan was interestingly enough the OC at Penn State in ‘14-’15 (when Gattis was the WR coach) and got fired in 2015 as Penn State had a horrible offense in 2014 and 2015 as they were ranked 120th and 83rd in ypp in his two years when he called the plays. Both coaches will be familiar with each other’s offenses but Michigan has a much higher level of talent and athletes so I think they win by atleast two TDs.

Pittsburgh -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Looking forward to what Pat Narduzzi has in store with this Pitt team for his 6th season. If you’re unfamiliar with Narduzzi, he was the defensive mastermind behind the tough Michigan State teams for almost a decade before he moved to head coaching at Pitt. I love finding these defensive minded coaching gems that churn out powerhouse defenses every year by coaching and strategy. His offenses have struggled but this year many return including starting QB, Kenny Pickett who should be comfortable in leading this offense to a winning season in his 5th year and 3rd year with new OC Mark Whipple. Although I like the hire of Heupel at OC Im not assured he has the right tools in place with his two QB transfer, Joe Milton III and Hendon Hooker as neither are accurate passers and Milton can’t even run so expect them to struggle this week against a tough Pitt defense that likes to bring pressure blitzing 37% of the time last season, ranking 37th in the nation and that pressure resulted in sacks as their sack % was ranked 6th overall in the nation at 11%. Pitt’s two corners can hold their own as Marquis Williams produced the 4th best incompletion rate among power 5 cornerbacks at 24% last season and they have Damarri Mathis returning who sat out all season due to injury - in 2019 he had the 3rd lowest carch rate allowed amongst power 5 cornerbacks. I expect this to be a big surprise as Pitt wins easily against this typically over-rated SEC team.

NC State -1.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
After the departure of Eliah Drinkwitz as OC in 2018, NC State had one of the worst offenses in the country in 2019 as they brought in two new co-OCs. Last year they brought in Tim Beck and all things considered, he did a great job implementing his offense during covid year despite injuries to starting QB and other key components to his offense. They improved their offensive points per game by 8 points and in terms of Expected Points added Margin last season, they were the 9th most improved team in the nation and 1st in the ACC. They have 8 starters returning including starting QB, Devin Leary who looks much more poised and better deep ball than the alternatives. He led the team to a 3-1 start and got injured in the 4th game last year which is when Bailey Hockman took over. Dave Doereen knows how to coach defense and they were an above average defense last season ranking 40th in efficiency, 47th in explosiveness, and 56th in finishing drives. Their defense struggled in a few games last season when their newly appointed defensive captain, Payton Wilson was out (including the bowl game). He became a major part of their defense last year and accounted for 108 total tackles. Almost everybody on the defensive side of the ball returns with a few starters from last season expected to be backups to new fresh talents and transfers that are coming in. Miss State should have lost last week to LA tech but squeaked out a victory. They are largely the same as last season with 16 returning starters, 8 on both sides of the ball but that's not a good thing when you have the numbers they had from last season (and a 4-7 record). Their offense ranked 107th in field position, 74th in efficiency, 104th in explosiveness, 114th at finishing drives. Don’t expect it to improve much under returning sophomore Will Rogers who only averaged 5.7 yards per attempt with 11 TDs and 7 INTs. Their offense relies on them being able to run the ball when the defense drops 8 but they could do that at all last season ranking 126th in yards per carry at 2.4! Their entire offense struggled at protecting the ball as they ranked 120th in snaps per turnover and ranked 101s in adjusted turnover margin. I think NC State squeaks out a win here

**Dwellington** · 09-10-21, 11:22 AM

I'm digging the analysis!

**Smutbucket** · 09-11-21, 08:27 AM

Thanks Dwellington, a little short on these picks that I added as I had a late start and it's almost kickoff!

Week 2 adds:
Utah -7 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I think this will be a really good Utah team this year after a few setbacks last season on defense (last year only had 2 returning starters and covid blah). This year 9 starters return on defense and even though their numbers took a hit last season in their 5 games, they still led the PAC 12 in rushing yards per game allowed and passing efficiency defense. On offense, we have a 5th year senior very experienced transfer, Charlie Brewer who came over from Baylor. He’s started the last 4 years at Baylor, and although last year wasn't great, the whole staff had been overhauled after all the off-field things they had going on. In 2018, he was the 10th highest rated QB according to PFF ranks. 4 out of 5 starters return on the offensive line and rank 29th in total starts. They have one of the best receiving option TE’s in Brant Kuithe who can break tackles (ranked 2nd last year) and get lots of yards after the catch. On the other side you have BYU who lost starting QB and leader of the offense Zac Wilson who started for the last 3 years. They were one of the top defenses in the nation last year (against a weak schedule) but only 4 starters return on that side of the ball. I think Utah wins big and re-establishes themselves as one of the best teams in the PAC this year as they have all the tools in place. Also if your an action junkie, tease them and Michigan together which seems a pretty safe bet to me.

California +11.5 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Ugh, hope I’m not being stubborn here going back to Cal again this week. Hopefully their offensive play-calling improves as they struggled last week after establishing the run well they chose to throw on 3rd and short for whatever reason. Although TCU had a decent go last year in their all BIG12 schedule (weakest conference) going 6-4, but they did lose 22 transfers this off-season. 3rd year starter Max Duggan padded a lot of his stats on the ground last year against the weak BIG 12 defenses. He’s much more of a better runner than passers as in 2019 he ranked 11thth in passing according to PFF, and last year ranking 72nd. Wilcox knows this and will have his team in position to contain him and force him to beat them with his arm, which is unlikely. This is just too many points, but I suppose it’s warranted considering Cal’s 1st poor week and struggles last season. Hopefully they turn it around this week and maybe even sprinkle some on the ML here.

Virginia -10.5 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
I love this Virginia team again this year, Bronco Mendenhall may be one of the best QB recruiters/coaches in college football if you look at his resume going back to BYU. After losing Bryce Perkins in 2019, he came right back with another stud QB, Brennan Armstrong, who graded 11th in offense in PFF last season. He has a much better arm then Perkins and although he doesn't have the speed Perkins did, he is tough to bring down and can do damage with his legs. Illinois lost their starting QB in week 1, and has a slew of other injuries on both sides of the ball. They were fortunate as hell to beat Nebraska in Week 1 who shot themselves in the foot over and over again, and last week they lost to a conference USA team in which they were favorites (knew I shoulda faded I just knew very little about UTSA football and 1st game of the year for them). Sorry for a short write-up, games in less than two hours and I got things I gotta do before kick-off! I bought this to 10 with my bookie but use pickmonitor for tracking so couldn’t buy down.

**Brandt Moat** · 09-11-21, 10:44 PM

Very impressed. Nice job. Keep it going.

**Smutbucket** · 09-17-21, 05:19 PM

Thanks MOAT! More plays coming tomorrow morning, this what I got so far.

Week 2 Results: 5-2 (+2.93 units)
Season YTD: 10-6 (+3.68 units)

Week 3
V-Tech +2.5 (-105) Risking 1.58 units to win 1.5 units
My favorite matchup of the week, I resisted the urge to put 2 units on and simply did 1.5x units. Lots of reasons to love this pick, Vtech has had a significantly more difficult schedule to date (ranking 65th in Sagarins) opposed to W. Virginia’s 185th Sagarin SOS and yet still outrank W. Virginia in most stat categories and PFF grades. Vtech’s grades have been great, ranking 32nd on offense and 69th on defense whereas W. Virginia, only having played Maryland and Long Island University, grade out to 58 on offense and 71 on defense. Even though Bud Foster, the defensive guru, retired in 2019 he groomed his replacement in Justin Hamilton who has been promoted up within the ranks to DC. Last year they had some growing pains and had an anemic offense but this year to date they look great - holding their first two opponents to under two TDs in the game (and both their opponents put up 50+ in their only other game this season). Applying pressure has always been Vtech’s defensive recipe and this year their players have been flying around racking up 18 hurries in the first two games, 9 in each game and accumulating an 11% sack rate, ranked 25th in the nation. They’ve also broken up 10 passes (5 in each game) and forced 3 fumbles in their first two games. WVU is a one dimensional, pass-happy team and have only averaged 3.24 yards per carry in its first two cupcake games, and only running the ball 32% of the time. It’s impressive what WVU head coach Neal Brown did at Troy but not sure those types of offenses can thrive in the Power 5. It also requires a very specific type of QB to implement and not sure if Jarret Doege is the guy for the job. Last year he put up decent numbers but I think any Joe Schmo could in an all BIG 12 covid schedule.. Think V-tech puts a beating down on WVU and wins this one easily, wrong team is favored.

Alabama/UF Under 60 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Despite the defensive troubles Florida had last season (stupid contact tracing and twisted prove to me you’re not sick ideology) - If you look back at Todd Grantham’s defenses throughout his career you will see he is a proven winner and one of the best defensive coordinators in the league going all the way back to UGA from ‘10-’13 where he put out a consistent top 20 defense. According to PFF, they’ve had the 7th best pass rush in the nation in their first two games, which could be an issue for Alabama’s inexperienced offensive line that currently ranks 97th in pass blocking. Both defenses are well coached obviously and rank in the top 20 of tackling and I don't think you will see as many blown coverages and mis-tackles as last season (last year UF ranked 101st in tackling!). According to PFF, Alabama’s defense is top notch again, ranking 4th in overall defense, 8th against the run, and 19th in coverage. They should present problems for 5th year junior Emory Jones, who never secured a role as a starter in the past and was beat out by that scrub Felipe Franks and then Kyle Trask. Florida will be at home so hopefully a packed swamp will rattle Bryce Young (has this millennial ever seen a real crowd before). Either way I think both offenses struggle as they are both relatively green, with Alabama’s ranking 129th in % of yards returning and UF ranking 123rd in % of yards returning from last season. Bet the under despite last years 98 point shootout (which I think is inflating our number)

FSU +4.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This is a must win game for FSU after losing their first two and they're led this week by the scrappy McKenzie Milton who’s the type of QB who will leave it all out in the field and do whatever he can to put his team in position to win. Milton put up insanely good numbers in his 3 years at UCF, completing 61% of his passes, for an average of 8.4 yards, almost 9000 yards passing, 73 TD’s and 23 INTs. He also put up over 1000 yards on the ground as he can beat you with his legs if need be. Wake Forest’s defense is atrocious but you wouldn't know that from the stats this year as they had two soft opponents but they’re about to get a wake-up call. Last year they ranked 96th in defensive efficiency, 82nd in defensive explosiveness, 86th in field position, and 98th in finishing drives. Don’t expect much to change against a harder schedule with 8 starters returning and the same old crap DC, Lyle Hemphill who has been DC at Wake Forest since 2018 where his defenses have ranked 86th in ‘18, 79th in ‘19 and 87th last year in yards per play allowed. I'm not too worried about the loss to Jacksonville State as that program has been a notorious thorne in the side of FSU program, including last year when they were up 21-14 at half before FSU came back and won. Despite giving up a lot of yards on the ground, FSU grades out to the 7th best run defense according to PFF. This should be a one possession game and worst case if Wake Forest has a size-able lead coming into the 4th qtr, I think FSU will put up a few garbade TD’s and make it close like they did against Notre Dame. But honestly I think FSU wins outright so sprinkle some on the ML for you degens.

Northwestern/Duke Over 49.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Usually both these teams have stronger defenses but there’s reason to believe they won’t be as good as years past from the first few games of the season. Both defenses rank in the bottom 10% of total tackles returning from last year with Northwestern ranking 2nd to last (and lost their DC I mentioned before). In game 1 Northwestern gave up 326 yards on the ground against Michigan State which could be problematic against Duke's star running back, Mataeo Durant who ran for 255 yards in his opener, averaging 8.8 yards per carry. Duke also has given up a lot of yardage on the ground despite playing two horrible opponents in its first two games it still allowed average over 4 yards per carry and I think Northwestern will run at will also. Both offenses should be able to run the ball, opening up their offenses and play action that both teams ran about 30% of the time last season. Both defenses are in the bottom 20% of most PFF categories in their first two games with Northwestern struggling in every department ranking 100th overall defense, 89rd in coverage, 103rd in run defense, and 88th in tackling. Duke’s biggest weakness has been their coverage ranking 113th and not applying much pressure to QBs ranking 88th in the pass rush. Northwestern’s Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson should finally start to see some life as his offensive line has struggled with protection but that was against defenses that were much more difficult up front. Look for Northwestern to take more deep shots as Duke loves to play cover 1 (ranking 11th in the nation last season). Expect a turnover or two as that has been a thorn in this Dukes side so hopefully they come in good field position for the over with short-fields and maybe a defensive TD even. Take the over!

**Smutbucket** · 09-18-21, 09:29 AM

Week 3 Adds:
Boise State -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Last Season Oklahoma State was 8-3 but 2-3 against Top 30 competition. Only 5 starters on offense return to a team that, unlike Mike Gundy’s typical teams, have relied on their defense to win games. Their offense lost all of it’s playmakers and it’s shown in their first two games as they only gained 190 yards on 71 carries against Southwest Missouri State and Tulsa. Newly appointed offensive coordinator Kasey Dunn has no play-calling experience in his career. Okie State only averaged 25 points in the first two games and fortunately their defense has kept them afloat and sitting at 2-0 both games were one-possession wins over much weaker competition then Boise. Boise returns 8 starters on offense and 3rd year starter Hank Bachmeier seems to be meshing well with his group of talented receivers that may be the best in mountain west. Last year Khalil Shakur ranked 9th in FBS in receiving grades and graded slightly higher than he did in 2019. They brought in a new OC for the 3rd time in 3 years which I think will add a wrinkle to the already experienced staff and playbook. On defense, 8 return as well and first time head coach Andy Avalos has a lot of experience as a DC as he was working with Boise back in the Chris Peterson days and took over Defensive coordinator role when Harsin took over for many years and led an above average defense and ranked as high as 13th in ypp allowed in his 2nd year as DC at Boise. In 2019 Avalos went to Oregon to be their DC where he lead another 13th ranked ypp allowed defense. This is his first year back to lead the Broncos and I think they win this one big.

Penn State -5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Not much you can pull from Auburn’s first two games as the level of competition was ridiculously poor as Akron may be one of the worst teams in FBS and Alabama State equally bad just FCS. They will struggle against a Penn State defense that is typically one of the best in the nation behind Franklin and Pry. Auburns breaking in a whole new coaching staff with Brian Harsin leading and an interesting pair of Bobo at OC and Derek Mason as DC. I think Bobo can do what he did at Georgia and Colorado State but at both schools it took time for him to develop his players and put his playbook into place, not the first year and not with old Bo Nix. Bo Nix is terrible under pressure which I brought up in many past write-ups and Penn State will bring lots of it. Derek Mason will bring a whole new defense and unlike his predecessor Kevin Steele, Mason has no track record of leading tough defensive units and his defenses always struggled at Vanderbilt. After losing it’s first 5 games last season, Penn State has been on a roll winning the last 7 going back to last season. Their defense looks to have returned to form only allowing 23 points combined in its first two games and only allowed 2.96 yards per carry against Wisconsin and Ball State. On offense Clifford returns who has had some time to develop under new OC Mike Yurcic. He brings a whole new offensive philosophy to Penn State as he loves the Air Raid (and ran it well for 5 years at Okie State, 3 of which his team was Top 20 in ypp), which is quite the contrast from what Ciarrocca ran last season. They looked good in their first two games averaging 30 points and Clifford has played mistake free football, a big problem of his last season giving up 9 INTs. The Sagarin ratings agree this is a huge SOS to date mismatch as Penn State has had one of the hardest schedules ranking 18th in the nation while Auburns schedule is laughable ranking 231st since sagarin includes FCS. This is a white-out at home and although Penn State has typically lost these big games at home, I think they pull this one off.

Fresno State +11 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
If this Fresno State squad could keep it close with Oregon then there's no reason to think they won’t keep it close with UCLA. Fresno State, although a member of the mountain west has been beating up on it’s PAC 12 opponents going 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs PAC 12. Fresno State showed lots of resilience and an ability to make adjustments as they had two turnovers that led to 14 points early in the 1st quarter against Oregon. Fresno States defense has been improved this year (although against weak competition, except Oregon) they are currently ranked 10th in overall defense, 33rd in coverage, 8th against the run, 30th in the pass rush and 3rd in tackling. UCLA’s offense has struggled in pass blocking ranking 119th in passblocking and their defense always struggles at tackling last year ranking 113rd and this year only improving to 93rd this season. Two huge mismatches that favor our big dog. Fresno State has all their weapons on offense returning this year and they were largely screwed last year from the COVID regulations in the mountain west as they had 0 spring ball and did not start practicing in person until Sept 25! I expect this to be a shootout

Stanford -12.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Did anyone bet Stanford last week to upset USC? Don’t think I saw anybody expect that. Stanford looked a lot better on offense without interchanging QBs like they did in Week 1 but credit to Kansas State’s secondary as they are one of the best in the nation, a huge difference from this week's opponent in Vanderbilt who ranks 100th in coverage. Stanford got shredded by Kansas State on the ground and beat deep as Skylar Howard bought tons of time in the backfield on down field throws. Fortunately for them Vanderbilt doesn't have nearly the same rushing attack, averaging 2.78 yards per carry against the formidable Colorado State and East Tennessee State. Stanford in contrast has faced the 8th most difficult schedule according to Sagarin. Stanford has one of the best secondaries although their numbers to date don’t show it but thats because they played two tough offenses in USC and Kansas State. Expect them to feast on a much weaker offense without playmakers or a dual threat QB. Stanford should run all over Vanderbilt too like their first two horrible opponents did averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Like most shit programs, Vandy’s tackling is a joke too ranking 96th in the nation. They are also sporting a whole new coaching staff after an 0-9 season with horrible stats, where Stanfords coaching staff is much more well established and will be prepared for the road trip to the almighty SEC. Stanford wins in blowout fashion.

**Smutbucket** · 09-24-21, 03:28 PM

DAPPER DAN PICKS
WEEK 3 RESULTS: 4-3-1 (+0.27 UNITS)
SEASON YTD: 14-9 (+3.95 UNITS)

Week 4 (only two for now, more in the morning)
Virginia ML (-175) Risking 1.75 units to win 1 units
I usually don’t like to take these big ML’s but I think we win this one easily. Like I mentioned in last week's FSU/WF writeup, Wake's secondary should get exposed. Last week it didn't happen because of poor QB play, Milton doesn’t seem to be the same and Jordan Travis never had much of an accurate arm and played the majority of snaps. Both FSU’s QBs pff grades are below 65 on the season, a big contrast from Virginia’s QB Brennan Armstrong who is currently the highest ranked QB according to PFF with a 93.9 pass rating. Their receivers have been explosive too, ranking the 8th highest receiving grades between D. Wicks, BIlly Kemp, and huge 6’7 TE, Jelani Woods, who has the 5th highest receiving grade amongst TE’s. Virginia’s defensive numbers aren't great on the season but most of that was due to last week's shootout with UNC. Wake Forest won’t have the firepower to keep up with Virginia's offense and even though on paper, their numbers and grades on the season are much higher than UVA, that’s only because their Sagarin SOS ranking for Wake Forest is 200 (meaning many FCS teams have played harder schedules than them) This is a revenge game as last year Wake beat Virginia 40-23, but a big reason that happened was good ole Brennan Armstrong was on the sidelines (the one game he missed all season) and a Lindell Stone started and averaged only 4.6 yards per attempt and 2 INTs. Virginia should blow them out but since it’s a Friday night game and the refs will most likely be out in full force, we’ll take the conservative ML approach with this one.

Auburn -27 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I don’t usually take these huge spreads unless I’m taking the dogs but like this one. Auburn should dominate the line of scrimmage and run the ball down Georgia State’s throat like UNC did two weeks ago averaging 5 yards per carry. Auburn’s defensive line should dominate as well as Georgia State’s offensive line has been horrible ranking 115th in passblocking and Auburns pass rush ranks 21st. Georgia State’s rushing grade is the worst in the nation ranking 130th, Auburns rush defense grade is 1st in the nation - biggest mismatch possible on paper. We also have a huge special teams mismatch as Auburn’s special teams ranks 3rd and Georgia State’s ranks 116th. Bo Nix and the offense will look to get back into sync after getting beat up by Penn State last week. I'm annoyed as in week 2 I had UNC -26 circled vs Georgia State and laid off and they ended up winning by 42. I think this one is also comfortably won like that matchup by 1-2 TD’s and with ease.

**JacketFan81** · 09-24-21, 03:59 PM

That Auburn play is absolute money. Georgia State is brutal.

**Smutbucket** · 09-25-21, 12:41 PM

Week 4 Adds:
Texas Tech +9 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Looking at the numbers for this game you would think T. Tech is the 9 point favorite but instead the big school Texas again is over-valued. Texas has been getting gashed on the ground, ranking 123rd in PFF rush defense and allowing 5.2 yards per carry. T. Tech’s rush defense on the other side is currently ranked 9th in PFF rush defense and allowing only 2.1 yards per carry. Oregon transfer Tyler Shough for Texas Tech seems to be a good fit, completing 68% of his passes and almost 10 yards per attempt. This should be a problem for the Texas secondary who ranks 120th in allowing opponents to complete almost 74% of their passes. On offense, Texas replaced starting QB Hudson Card after struggling against Arkansas, and Casey Thompson will get the start. He’s a 3rd year junior with very little starting experience and only seen snaps in meaningless blowouts. He will have a short leash too and expect to see both QBs interchanging as Sarkisian looks to find the leader of his new offense. Texas Tech’s defense, although against weak competition has been stellar not only against the run but have also only allowing 5.4 yards per pass, ranking 17th in the nation and they have also generated sacks, ranking 39th in the nation in sack % - where Texas’s offensive line has struggled, ranking 86th in sack rate allowed. After two losing seasons in his first two years as coach for Texas Tech, Matt Wells looks to make the turn-around he did at Utah State and beat the in-state rival who are moving on to the SEC next season. We should be comfortable in this one as Texas Tech usually keeps it close and no reason to think they won’t do that again this year the way these two programs have been playing.

SMU +9.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Had to do a double take when looking over TCU’s defensive stats as they were god awful - they currently rank 97th in yards per rush allowed, 124th in yards per pass allowed, and 113th in points per play. Granted these stats are only from 1 game as TeamRankings does not include their FCS opponent and is only pulling stats from their only other game against Cal, it’s still a cause for concern, especially against this explosive SMU offense. SMU is a very experienced team with 20 returning starters and the only non-returning starting on offense is their QB Shane Buechele but that void is being filled by Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordcai who has been great so far in his first 3 games completing 73% of his passes, for 9.3 yards per attempt with 16 TDs and only 2 INTs. He was a great fit for Dyke’s system who last year hired Lincoln Riley’s younger brother Garret Riley as offensive coordinator (Stolen QB from his own bro!) Last year as his first year as an OC, his offense ranked 21st in yards per play, 29th in OFEI, 19th in ODE, and 14th in OAY. This year although the FEI rankings aren’t out yet, the traditional stats show they have been dominant as well averaging 5.9 yards per carry (ranked 11th), 8.7 yards per pass (ranked 27th), completing 70% of their passes (ranked 18th) and have yet to give up a sack with their 5 returning line-man (granted against weak competition). Although SMU defense has struggled typically they have good PFF grades on the season against their weak schedule. They currently rank 18th in overall defense, 11th in pass rush, 81st in secondary (passing isn’t TCU’s strength) and 11th against the run. Granted these numbers are largely skewed due to the level of competition but they should be good enough to hang around close enough for SMU to cover 10 but I wouldn’t be surprised if SMU wins outright, like Cal almost did. I bought this one and Texas Tech to 10 if you can get below -125 with my bookie it's a good buy in my opinion.

Toledo/Ball State Under 56.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
These were two highly touted MAC offenses coming into the season that have been in shambles in their first 3 games both falling to 1-2 on the season. Jason Candle’s offense at Toledo seems to be digressing since his glory years in 2016-’17 when he was in the Top 10 of yards per play. Last week, they put up 6 points against one of the worst teams in college football and somehow only generated 14 yards on the ground in 28 carries against Colorado State. It all starts at their offensive line as they have given up 14 sacks on the season which has limited their offense. Ball State’s offensive line has struggled at protecting David Plitt as well with a sack% of 8.14 (ranking 89th). Both offenses are in the bottom 10% of most categories, with Ball State averaging 3.6 yards per play! These teams are well-versed in each other offenses as they were the two top contenders in the MAC. Last year Ball State squeaked out a victory 27-24 and it’s hard to imagine this game with more points scored then last years considering the offensive line struggles on both teams. Take the under.

TexAM/Ark Under 47 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
These are two top 10 secondary's in passing efficiency defense with two relatively inexperienced and unproven QBs in a rivalry match-up. In week 2, Texas AM lost their starting QB Haynes King and in came Zach Calzada who struggled against Colorado’s secondary. KJ Jefferson on the other side can definitely move with his legs, but he struggles in the passing game even though they haven't shown it thus far thanks to their easy schedule. Upsetting an continually over-rated Texas team isn’t impressive and their secondary ranks 79 in passing efficiency compared to Texas AM’s #1. Both teams will rely on their run game to try to take pressure off their QBs and not make mistakes. Looking at the advanced numbers, both defenses dominate in almost every category. Texas A&M defense is top 10 in every SP+ category, including DSP+, DFEI, Points per opportunity, success rate, and they rarely give up big plays ranking 5th in explosiveness allowed. They know how to create pressure and sack QBs ranking 16th in sack rate on the season. Arkansas’ defense ranks 30th in SP+, 35th in DFEI, 13th in points per opportunity and 14th in success rate. They rank 34th in sack rate and they don’t give up many big plays either ranking 31st in explosiveness. Texas AM although haven't given up a ton of sacks on the year (ranked 52nd in sack rate allowed), they have allowed lots of pressure (ranked 83rd in PFF pass blocking) and they have 2 offensive lineman recently listed on their injury report (one missed last week) in an area they were already thin. Think this is a low-scoring hard fought game where points come at a premium so lets bet the under.

UCLA -4 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Although Stanford has dominated this rivalry there's plenty of reasons to see UCLA come out with a big win this one. The strengths of this UCLA team line up perfectly with the weakness of this Stanford team. Stanford has allowed 5.85 yards per rush on the season including 247 yards to Vanderbilt last week! DTR and UCLA love to run, rushing 63% of the time, and they do it well averaging 5.1 yards per rush (ranking 28th). They don’t pass much but when they do, they've been effective averaging 11.1 yards per pass (ranking 4th in the nation). Stanford’s secondary is very thin with 3 CB’s on their injury report and their 3rd leading tackler, senior safety Noah Williams. UCLA should do all kinds of damage on offense and don’t think Stanford's bland offense can hang or play from behind. Unlike Stanford’s offenses of the pass, they currently ranked 87th in overall offense, 78th in passing, 103rd in the run game, and 86th in run blocking. Although UCLA’s defense isn’t top notch they are improved considering their tough opponents and they have racked up 20 TFLs in 3 games, broken up 14 passes, and forced 7 fumbles! Last year, UCLA ran for 291 yards on 51 carries against Stanford but still managed to lose in double OT. They held Stanford to 132 yards on the ground on 36 carries but were beaten by Davis Mills in the air and don’t think McKee is that caliber of a QB yet. Don’t expect that to happen again this year and it’s time for this superior UCLA team to beat down their in-state rivals.

Kentucky -4.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Sorry no writeup for this one, busy week

Indiana -9.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Haven’t seen anyone on Indiana and I’ve had them circled all week (love when this happens). Everyone's down on them, despite them playing one of the hardest schedules to date and facing two of the top 10 defenses in college football. Their Sagarin SOS ranking is 16th and even with their tough schedule, their defensive numbers are great - only allowing 4.5 yards per play (ranking 29th), 5.5 yards per pass (ranking 18th) and only allowing opponents to complete 51% of their passes (ranking 14th). WKU loves to pass, a little too much making them a bit predictable, passing 70% of the time. After putting up some horrible numbers on offense last year (against a shit schedule) They brought in a new coordinator, Zach Kittley, with relatively no experience at calling plays and lack of much of a resume. He’s highly regarded as being an assistant QB coach at T. Tech when Mahomes was there, but that's about it. Last 3 years he called the plays for an FCS team Houston Baptist, but this defensive front is going to be a hell of a lot different then what he’s used to seeing. WKU has only played two games, one FCS opponent and then lost to Army by 3 and gave up over 330 yards on the ground. Their two opponents have averaged 5.35 yards per carry and Indiana’s offense should finally get some much needed breathing room and blow this W. Kentucky team out of the water.

Cal/Washington Over 47.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Against the grain kind of pick since for the last several years when these two teams have met they have gone well under the total but both defenses have struggled so far this season with Washington having a stronger defense but Cal’s offense is much more developed and should be able to put up points like Michigan did. Cal’s defense has given up 30 points per game including 28 against last week’s FCS opponent Sacramento State. Both teams prefer to pass and although Washington’s secondary has been great thus far they have been beat up on the ground allowing 4.9 yards per rush, ranking 98th. When Cal does run the ball (only 44% of the time) they’ve been doing it effectively averaging 5.2 yards per carry, ranking 22nd and ranking an even higher 4th in PFF run grades. Washington rush defense ranks 103rd according to PFF. Cal has been getting gashed on the ground too, ranking 81st in PFF rush defense and haven't been tackling well, ranking 113th. Their defense has allowed their opponents to score in every red zone possession, ranking last obviously in the league and Washington has scored in every red zone possession on offense, ranking 1st. I think this is an unusual high scoring matchup between these two teams as this season's numbers imply.

**Smutbucket** · 10-01-21, 05:42 PM

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 4 Results: 6-4 (+1.1 units)
Season YTD: 20-13 (+5.05 units)

Week 5:
Arkansas/UGA Under 48.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Going back to the SEC under “well” as we have another SEC defensive powerhouse matchup with two top 10 defenses. Arkansas’s secondary moved from 8 to 4th in passing efficiency after last week’s beatdown of Texas A&M. Their line absolutely pestered Zach Calzada with 8 QB hurries and 3 sacks, which led him to only completing 20 of 36 pass attempts for 151 yards and an INT. Georgia’s secondary moved from number 2 to number 1 in passing efficiency defense after slaughtering Vanderbilt and holding them to only completing 5 of 18 passes for 24 yards and two INTs. Georgia’s rush defense may be even better and is anchored by their 6’6 nose tackle, Jordan Davis, who is an absolute mammoth that you can’t miss on the field due to his enormous size. They have only allowed opponents to rush for 2.3 yards per carry, ranking 8th in the nation. Both defenses are extremely good at 3rd down ranking 10th and 11th in the nation and both defenses are great in the red zone ranking 22nd and 35th in the nation. In terms of yards per pass attempt allowed Georgia ranks 1st at 4.6 and Arkansas ranks 2nd at 4.7. Both in the top 10% of completion % allowed. I can go on and on in defensive stat categories for these two teams and how they far outweigh their offensive counterparts. Good defenses always trump good offenses unless you have some insanely good QB athletes and WR weapons like we did some of the last few seasons with Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts, Fields and Tua but neither of these QBs are on that level. Jefferson is banged up and shouldn’t be as mobile as he was in the first few games. He impressed me with some throws in last week's game but I’ve still seen a bad side to him in the first few games and let's see if Georgia's defense can force him into poor throws. As long as we don’t have a few defensive TD’s I think this one stays well under the total in true SEC fashion.

Michigan +2 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Another shocker of a line pointing to an overvalued Whisky team. Last week I had Notre Dame +7 circled big and laid off as the bookies confused everyone, opening Wisconsin as a 3 point fav and pushing to 6.5 leaving everyone scratching their heads wondering “what am I missing in this game”. Kudos to them for their trickery but I think they’re off again with this line and Michigan pulls the win out here as Michigan heavily outranks Wisconsin in most stat categories and yet somehow is still a small dog (and line moving for them!). Wisconsin’s struggles stem from their QB as Graham Mertz starts for the 2nd year. Last year his numbers were poor, only averaging 6.4 yards per pass with 9 TDs and 5 INTs and grading out to the 89th best passer in the league according to PFF. This year he’s taken a significant drop as his lack of athletic ability is limiting him and defenses are dialing up the pressure, he currently is only averaging 6 yards per pass and has 6 INTs and only 1 TD, grading out to the 138th ranked passer on PFF. Their offensive line has struggled to protect him ranking 81st in pass blocking and their run-game isn’t what it was last season ranking 79th in rush offense. They will definitely struggle to put up points against a Michigan defense that has been great this season, who rank 5th in total defense, 48th in pass rushing,19th in coverage, and 4th in rush defense. More concerning though is Wisconsin’s defense that has been surprisingly bad as well, ranking 73rd overall, 100th in coverage, and 24th against the run according to PFF. They have been banged up on that side of the ball and this week more of the same as their best CB, Faion Hicks who had 4 pass breakups and 5 total tackles in last week's game is listed as questionable after he left at the end of the game. Michigan should put a beating on Wisconsin and it’s taking a lot of discipline in me not to fire away on this one for 2 units. Definitely like to see most ESPN pundits and public polls are expecting the undefeated Michigan to fall this week. Oh, Contraire my friend.

Pittsburgh -3 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Pitt matches up very well against this Georgia Tech team. Georgia Tech loves to run the ball (60% of the time) and that is the strength of Pitt’s defense who rank 7th against the run according to PFF, and have only allowed 3.1 yards per carry. Georgia Tech has been shuffling between two mediocre QBs in Jordan Yates and Jeff Sims. Neither has shown stand-out potential and Sims took over last week after Yates started and led them to victory running all over the sad UNC defense. Combined, the QBs have only averaged 6.3 yards per pass (ranked 96th) and they haven’t got much protection from their offensive line, with over a 10% sack rate allowed (ranking 109th) - another huge mismatch on paper as Pitt’s defense is great at getting pressure and sacking opponents, ranking 11th in sack rate. Pitt loves to pass, rightfully so as their QB Kenny Pickett overtook the #1 passer spot in PFF and their receivers are ranked 4th, granted we will see some regression as much of this is due to their poor schedule but G. Tech’s weakness on defense is their secondary. They rank 70th in coverage, have allowed opponents to complete 66% of their passes (ranked 100th), and for an average of 7 yards per pass (ranked 50th). If this turns out to be a close one, we also have a strong advantage in the kicking game as Pitt’s kicker has yet to miss a kick this season and Gtech’s kicker is only making 62% of his kicks, but I think Pitt wins by a touchdown atleast.

Mississippi +14.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I’ve got a propensity for pain betting against Alabama all the time but I love me some Ole Miss Rebels. The Rebels offense led by 3rd year starter Matt Corrall is one of the most explosive and efficient in the nation, FEI ratings were just officially released this week and Ole Miss offense is at the top of all the ranks, ranking 1st in OFEI, 1st in ODE, 1st in OPD, 1st in OAY, 2nd in OPP, 1st in OTD, and 4th in OVD. Alabama’s defense isn’t quite up to par to seasons past and their defensive FEI counterparts rank out like this, DDE they rank 44th, DPD they rank 44th, DAY they rank 42nd, DPP they rank 43, DTD they rank 46th and DVD they rank 54th (If you don’t know what the FEI rating mean goto footballoutsiders.com for explanation). This is just too many points, much like Florida was able to keep it close with Alabama. I don't see how Bama can win by more than 14. They might come out firing and take an early lead in true bama fashion but Ole Miss’s big play ability will put up points eventually. Ole Miss defense has also improved this season (nowhere to go but up when you’re last) and despite the struggles they had last season, their defensive coordinators have a track record of strong defenses, especially co-defensive coordinator, DJ Durkin, who’s been all around the league including coaching at Stanford, Florida in ‘13-’14 where he led a Top 25 defense (and faced Saban a number of times), Michigan, and then Maryland before returning to the SEC at Ole Miss last season. By the PFF grades, their coverage ranks 45th, run defense 62nd, and overall defense 57th so middle of the pack. Alabama’s offensive line has continued to struggle this season despite the weak schedule, they are currently ranked 75th in pass blocking and 66th in run blocking (I believe next week the advanced line stats are finally released). Ole Miss keeps this one close and worst case we get a back-door special with +14.5, lock in while you can.

Kentucky +8.5 (-105) Risking 1.58 units to win 1.5 units
By the numbers this Florida offense is not nearly as potent as it was last year between the loss of Kyle Trask and their top 3 receivers. Emory Jones currently ranks 75th in passing and their receivers rank 61st. Kentucky’s offense under transfer Will Levis has seen some life and they actually outrank Florida’s offense in every almost every PFF category with a 26th ranking overall, 12th in passblocking, 56th in passing, 40th in receiving, 67th in rushing (one grade UF outranks UK), and 15th in runblocking. On defense, Kentucky heavily outranks UF’s defense in most categories including UK’s secondary where they rank 16th in coverage and Florida ranks a terrible 125th. UF’s run defense has also struggled ranking 78th and they have been poor tacklers ranking 98th. The FEI numbers concur and show a strong advantage to Kentucky on the defensive side and I always love taking this many points with the better D. Although Kentucky has notoriously struggled in this rivalry, I think they keep this one close and the historical ATS trends are definitely giving us extra value. Don’t be foolish enough to believe that the outcomes between these two schools a decade ago (or even 5 years ago) has any bearing on tomorrow's matchup considering all the turn-over in players and coaching staff. I can’t stand people who use that type of old historical trends between programs to justify picks. 1.5x units and most likely the best bet of the weekend.

**Smutbucket** · 10-02-21, 09:42 AM

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 4 Results: 6-4 (+1.1 units)
Season YTD: 20-13 (+5.05 units)

Week 5 Adds:
FIU +10.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
There’s a few coaches you need to keep on your fade list and Willie Taggart should be up at the top. Especially in year two where he inherited a nice little built up program from Kiffin. On the other side we have father time coaching in Butch Davis who has been coaching since the 70’s with a new young OC, Andrew Breiner to hopefully put some life in the passing game. FIU QB, Max Bortenschlager has been around college ball for a while now as he started most of 2017 but then was injured in 2018 and 2019 before transferring to FIU last year. Although he struggled last year and split time with other QBs, he has shown improvement this season under new OC, completing 9.5 yards per attempt with 8 TDs and 3 INTs on the season. N’Kosi Perry transferred to FAU to avoid being a backup at Miami, from someone who has watched lots of Hurricane games and Perry play, he’s just not very good in any aspect of the game. He can’t really run or throw the ball and his career stats reflect that with a 1.9 yards per rush attempt on 142 carries (they just kept trying to run him!) and completing just over 50% of his passes for a 6.4 yards per attempt. Last week against Air Force he completed 11 for 33 for 78 yards and an INT. The grades show advantages to FIU on both sides of the ball, and special teams as FIU grades out to the 6th best special teams where FAU grades out to 96th. The only stat category FAU has an advantage in is their secondary that ranks out to 13th which is largely because of the level of competition they played. FIU has some threats on offense and receivers rank out to 13th in the nation. I also love to see a big tackling edge as father time knows how to coach fundamentals and has his team ranked 4th in the nation at tackling and Taggert of course, doesn’t and his team ranks 86th in the nation according to PFF. This is a rivalry game played just down the street from my house and both schools always come to play, although FAU has covered and won the last 4 years, I think is giving extra value and this game should be within a TD and wouldn’t be surprised at all if FIU wins outright after FAU got beat down last week by Air Force, 31-7. Sprinkle some on the ml too.

Baylor +4 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
The biggest surprise last week for me was watching this Baylor offense against Iowa State. Their QB Gerry Bohanon is quite the athlete and very elusive, he has yet to be sacked this season, yet to throw an INT, completed 73% of his passes for 9.2 yards per attempt and 7 TDs. He’s dynamic and keeps defenses in check from applying too much pressure as he can buy time and throw the ball down the field. Baylor's rushing attack has been great too and overall their offense is ranked 1st according to PFF. Their recent coaching changes are really paying off. Dave Aranada struggled in his 1st year as a head coach last year (asterisk covid) but has historically led one of the top defenses at Wisconsin and then LSU so it will be interesting to see how his schemes translate to the BIG 12, but I think hes a great defensive coach. This year to help on the offensive side he re-united with Jeff Grimes, who led a very potent offense the last 3 years at BYU, and was with Aranada back at LSU from 2014-’17 where he was the run game coordinator and led one of the best rushing attacks in the country for two of his 3 years. I think Oklahoma State’s defense should struggle to contain especially with their 111th ranked tackling grade. Last week was quite the surprise as Oklahoma State blew out Kansas State 31-20, but all of their points came in the first half as Kansas State’s defense quickly adjusted and contained the Cowboys offense and also gave up a defensive TD and two fumbles lost. Kansas State isn’t the same team they were last year or at the beginning of this season since Skylar went down. Im not sold on this oklahoma state offense, they prefer to pass but the last two weeks have been running like crazy as Sanders has struggled. I think this will be a shoot-out and a close one possession type game so I will gladly take the 4 points.

Boston College/Clemson Under 46 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This is a bit of a no-brainer if you seen these two teams play this season, compared to last season they are two very different teams that matched up with a final score of 34-28 in 2020. Both teams lost their starting QBs as Lawrence went to the NFL and Jurkovec got hurt in Week 2 this year. Dennis Grosel will surely struggle as this will be the first real defense he faces this season and he hasnt done anything remarkable against the weak secondaries he has faced. Boston College will surely run the ball often (like they have been 67% of the time) and play possession football as they have been ranking 36th in Time of Possession % this season yet ranking 117th in plays per game at the same time (MILK THAT CLOCK BABBY!) Clemson, due to their offensive struggles have been in the same boat, ranking 124th in plays per game but mainly because their offense has been unable to move the ball through the air or on the ground. Boston College’s rush defense is much impreved from last season, holding opponents to 3.3 yards per carry and ranking 4th in PFF rush defense. They actually outrank Clemsons defense in most categories according to PFF with an 11th overall, 10th in coverage and 3rd in tackling. But they should regress as well as those stats came against the 172nd toughest schedule according to Sagarins SOS scale. I’m not too worried about Clemson’s defensive injuries as Will Venables can throw anyone out there in his defensive schemes and be successful. Year in and year out he loses tons of guys from his defense to the NFL and year and year out he comes back with a Top 10 defense. This BC offense would be fortunate to score more than 17 points in this one and hard to see Clemson breaking 28 so lets go with under in this matchup. Surprised the number is as high as it is.

Auburn +3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I love this Auburn team, except for Bo Nix, please Harsin bring in Finley and let him lead the beatdown of his old team. I’ve always liked Finley, even back at LSU despite not having great numbers he was a rookie thrown into action against an all SEC schedule, but last week he led the Auburn offense to victory over Georgia State and may be the right fit as unlike Nix he’s not afraid of pressure and can stay in the pocket long enough for his WR’s to get open. Tank Bigsby should have a field day against this LSU rush defense who ranks 96th according to PFF. Their defense has been HORRIBLE on 3rd down’s ranking 124th in the nation allowing opponents to convert 56% of the time! This is great for Auburn who has called all the right plays on 3rd down and converting 54% of their own on offense, ranking 12th in the nation. LSU has had 0 running game despite playing a very weak schedule to date they have only averaged 2.86 yards per carry on the season, expect them to get less than 50 yards on the ground against this top 10 auburn defensive front that is ranked 1st in the nation in rush defense according to PFF. I think we have a strong coaching advantage too as I love the combination of Brian Harsin and Mike Bobo. Ed Oregon I think in years past has relied on strong coordinators in his successful teams, but this year he brought in two new guys on both sides of the ball that I’ve never even heard of before so expect them to struggle this season despite their 3-1 start. LSU has also been battling injuries all season and have 12 players listed on their injury report. Auburn hasn’t won at Death Vallery since 2012 but the stars are aligned this year for a big upset win on the road.

Arizona State +3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Arizona State TT over 26 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I love this play and couldn’t decide whether I wanted to do 2 units but decided to split between the team total and points. Jayden Daniels enters his 3rd year as a starter and he’s a mobile threat and can pass the ball, deep and accurately. Although this season he only has two passing TD’s and 3 INT’s, it's largely because this Arizona State team has been able to run the ball so effectively, averaging 5.5 yards per carry (ranking 15th in the nation). Jayden Daniels career stats are great as he has completed 62% of his passes for an average of 8.6 yards and 24 TDs and only 6 INTs (this year half came but not all his fault). UCLA has thus far been great against the run ranking 10 in the nation allowing 2.4 yards per carry but a closer look at their schedule would explain why, none of their opponents could run the ball and less about UCLA’s defensive front that has always struggled, definitely look for some regression in this game. Last week DTR, clutched his throwing shoulder in pain for several minutes after every throw, towards the end of the game he took a really hard fall on his shoulder where he was pulled but then came back for the final TD and two pointer where after scoring instead of celebrating he rolled on the ground in the pain - can’t imagine he’s 100% and would be very limited at throwing. UCLA has struggled to protect him when they do pass the ball with a sack rate of 8% (ranking 94th in the nation). Arizona State has been AMAZING at sacking their opponents QBs averaging a 13.5% sack rate (ranking 3rd in the nation) Their coverage has been stellar too only allowing opponents to complete 46% of their passes (ranked 4th) and for 5.5 yards per attempt (ranked 15th). UCLA’s dfense has struggled to tackle all season ranking 91st in the nation and Arizona State knows how to wrap up ranking 11th in the nation in tackling. I somehow picked another head to head matchup this week where the team I picked has lost ATS for the last 4 years, risky trends to bet against but like I mentioned in the others, gives us value. Also like betting a 1-3 ATS team vs a 3-1 ATS team which is the case in this match-up too

**Smutbucket** · 10-09-21, 09:34 AM

Week 5 Results: 8-3 (+5.38 units)
Season YTD: 28-16 (+10.43 units)

Week 6:
Oklahoma (-115) Risking 1.73 units to win 1 .5 units
I love Oklahoma in the red river rivalry this week. Texas is a run first team accounting for 65% of their plays (ranking 10th) but they would be running into the biggest strength of the Oklahoma defense and their d-line that has only allowed opponents to rush for 2.9 yards per carry (ranked 17th in the nation). Much like when Texas was unable to run on the ground against Arkansas they had to pass which they've struggled at as Casey Thompson is the 68th ranked passer in the league. He will be pressured offense against this Oklahoma front that is currently ranked #1 in the pass rush and Texas’s offensive line hasn’t been great in pass blocking ranking 60th in the nation. Oklahoma can pass the ball very well with Rattler who currently ranks 11th in the nation in passing which is actually a drop off from last season's grades but he’s completing 76% of his passes for an average of 8 yards per pass. He also has a lot more weapons and can spread the ball more around than Texas as their receiving corps is ranked 12th in the nation where Texas hasn't been as great, ranking 68th. Last year when they faced off, Ehlinger was harassed constantly being sacked 6 times and 7 QB hurries. But unlike Ehlinger who could beat them deep and deal with the pressure, Casey Thompson hasn’t done well under pressure and his passer ranking drops to 99th in the league under pressure this season. I had to do a double-take when reading the Sagarin strength of schedule ranks as somehow Texas ranks a bit higher but I disagree (Sagarin usually spot on) and think Oklahoma’s opponents have been tougher as TCU is not up to par with seasons past and W. Virginia, Kansas State and Nebraska are tougher opponents. Another reason to love Oklahoma is 1-4 ATS and Texas is 4-1 ATS (always giving value to the poorer side of the trend). I love this play and a few other sharps I know like them too and we all came to the conclusion independently so we add a .5x and make this one a 1.5x unit play.

Michigan -3 (-105) Risking 1.58 units to win 1.5 units
My other favorite play of the week at 1.5x (if we hit both of these then I may start firing away a whole 2 units soon). Lots of Michigan doubters out there and although I’m not a big Harbaugh fan if you look at his history he knows how to win and I think he put together a great team this year by the numbers. He turned a Stanford program around from an 1-11 team the year before he arrived to a 12-1 team in his fourth year in 2010 (a lifetime ago) . By the PFF grades and FEI ranks, Michigan has a strong advantage on both sides of the ball with a stronger SOS too. Their offense is a top 10 efficiency offense ranking 4th in overall offensive FEI, 9th in offensive efficiency, 11th in yards per rush, 16th in yards per pass - they’ve only been sacked on 1% of their passes ranking 2nd in the nation, and have only allowed 11 TFLs on the year (ranking 1st of course). Nebraska has struggled in the big game, and unlike Cade McNamara Martinez has shown time and time again to make that dumb turnover or take that bad sack. He’s been sacked 11.26% on the season (ranking #119) and he has a higher INT % at 1.5% then McNamara has in sack%, meaning we are more likely to see a turnover or two from old Martinez then to see a sack from McNamara. Michigan defense is ranked 33rd in the nation with an 8.23% sack rate. They don’t make mistakes, only averaging 0.2 giveaways per game and ranked 40th in penalties per play, two other stat categories we have a significant edge in. Special teams included as Nebraska’s kicker has only made 44% of their field goals and leaving their special teams ranking 68th in the nation where Michigan’s kicker is hitting at 89% and their special teams ranks 31st in the nation. Nebraska has been playing better as of late as expected under the great head coach Scott Frost but Martinez still isn’t that next level guy to lead his team to a win over this Michigan team. The last time Harbaugh faced Frost in 2018 it was a 56-10 beat down and although this game might not be as bad I think Michigan should win easily.

Michigan State/ Rutgers Under 50 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
This is a nice higher than expected number for two Big 10 teams that have stronger defenses than their offenses. Michigan State’s offensive numbers are great on the season in the upper 20% of most categories but it’s been against some of the poorer defenses in the league and they have yet to face a defensive team like Rutgers. Rutgers defensive numbers aren’t spectacular on the season but only because they played two of the best offenses in the BIG 10 with Michigan and Ohio State the last two weeks. They’ve still held opponents to 3.5 yards per rush (ranking 36th), holding their opponents completion % 's to only 53%, ranking 10th in the nation and sacking opponents often with a 8.9% sack rate, ranking 21st in the nation. Michigan State has given up quite a few sacks with a 6.78 % sack rate ranking 73rd in the nation so expect to see a few in that mismatch this week. Both offenses prefer to run as Rutgers has struggled at the QB position with Noah Vedral only averaging 6.6 yards per attempt. Their team has a 122nd passer ranking and their line has struggled too, ranking 83rd in pass blocking and 103rd in run-blocking. Michigan State always has a solid front and should get quite a few sacks of their own as their PFF pass rush ranks 37th in the nation. Their rush defense has been stellar too only allowing opponents to average 3.2 yards per rush (ranking 21st) so Rutgers will have to try to make some throws on them but Michigan State’s coverage ranks 24th in PFF so that's a big mismatch on paper and MSU’s defense should hold this Rutgers offense to under 17 points. Although last year there was ton of points put up in this head to head matchup, I think this year stays low-scoring like they usually do in the BIG 10 matchup/

Wake Forest -6 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
I was very impressed with this Wake Forest team in the two games I bet against them this season and am hoping to cash in on those mistakes betting with them this game. Sam Hartman has been around for a while now and is that scrappy, quick release, backyard football type athlete who can make you pay if you don’t honor the ground game although he’s not a great runner. In his 4th year with the offense you can tell they are really gelling well and their offensive line has great timing with their backs as you can never really tell if the deceptive Hartman is running, throwing, or handing the ball off. Syracuse hasn’t faced an offense nearly as potent with their toughest offensive opponent being Liberty and they still gave up a lot of yards and 21 points in a near loss to the flames. They’ve allowed opponents to complete 74% of their passes ranking 128th in the nation and are average across most traditional and FEI defensive stat categories. Their offense has struggled ranking in the bottom 10% of most FEI categories as they've been unable to pass effectively averaging 5.9 yards per pass attempt, ranking #110th in the nation. Tommy DeVito started off as the season as their QB but after some poor play Garret Shrader took over but isn’t much of a throwing threat and only completed 18 of 38 passes in the last two games he started for an average of 5.9 yards per game. Wake’s biggest weakness of their defense is their secondary but they have yet to face a tough passing team yet and Syracuse shouldn’t pass much on them either. Syracuse’s pass blocking has also been a problem allowing opponents to sack them at 9.38% sack rate, ranked #113th in the nation, an area where Wake Forest defense has excelled with aa 8.75% sack rate ranking 24th in the nation. Wake’s defense is surprisingly in the top 20% of most FEI categories but that has a lot to do with their opponents as they rank 113rd in the Sagarin SOS ranks but Syracuse isn’t much better at 92nd. Wake Forest should win this by at least a TD.

UVA +2.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Sorry no write-up this week for this one fellas as I was very busy and got a little drunk last night. You know I love my Virginia team and Malik Cunningham is banged up. Buy to 3 if you can.

Penn State +1.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I had Penn State circled a few weeks ago when I was looking ahead in their schedules and think they have a much better eye test then Iowa as I watch these two BIG 10 teams a lot. I’m not impressed with Iowa’s strength of schedule to date as they beat up against teams that have been overvalued and struggling all season in Iowa State and Indiana and think Maryland’s 4-0 record will quickly drop as they faced all their easy opponents and are about to face the meat of the BIG 10. I’m not sold on Petras and Iowa’s offense has been unable to get anything going on the ground unlike years past they averaged only 3.4 yards per carry (ranking 100th) and their PFF rush grade ranks out to 122nd! Don’t expect them to start running the ball well now against the toughest defense they will have faced this season with Penn State who only allow opponents to rush for 3.4 yards per carry against them, ranking 30th. Petras is definitely due for some regression to last years stats as he has faced an easy schedule to date and currently ranks 24th in passing PFF, a huge improvement from last year's 124th passer ranking but will certainly drop after this week. Penn State’s defense has been phenomenal in the red zone ranking 2nd in the nation with a 46% red zone scoring percentage, a place where Iowa’s program has always struggled in years past and this year they rank 71st in red zone scoring % on offense so expect them to be held to some FGs. Penn State is well balanced on both sides of the ball and Franklin is 5-1 against Ferentz and lost for the first time last year against Iowa so it’s a revenge matchup in a huge BIG 10 matchup that I cant wait to watch. Good defense and hard hitting! Seems like the whole world is on Iowa too so that surprised me for sure and is always a good sign when you're on the opposite side of public perception.

Kentucky -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Back to Kentucky again and a lot of the same reasons as last week against UF, despite the great numbers on both sides of the ball for this Kentucky team they just don’t get much respect from the bookies (and the market) as they aren’t as frequently bet as the big name schools like LSU And UF. LSU has been unable to get anything going on the ground ranking #127th in the nation averaging 2.3 yards per rush. Kentucky’s defensive line is ranked 9th in the nation in yards per rush, and their secondary may be even better, ranking 12th in yards per pass allowed and 14th in PFF coverage. They tackle well, ranking 19th in the nation, and are in the Top 20 of almost all FEI defensive ranks. LSU’s defense has not been nearly as good by the numbers as they have allowed opponents to rush for 4.3 yards per carry (ranking 78th in the nation) and Kentucky loves to run and that's their strength ranking 17th in yards per rush, 25th in PFF rushing offense, and 15th in run blocking. A huge mismatch on paper as LSU rush defense ranks 85th in the nation this year and their biggest strength has been their pass rush but don’t expect them to get many sacks as not only have Kentucky’s offensive line been great at run blocking they also rank 12th in pass blocking. This LSU team is also very banged with 13 players on their injury report and 10 of them out for the game so they will be very thin. I think Kentucky follows up last week's big upset victory with a win this week against the struggling LSU team.

TCU/T.Tech Over 60.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units
Already touched on the significant drop off in performance of TCU’s defense from years past in previous write-ups. Their struggles continue as they are ranked at the bottom of the league in most categories. Both offenses outranks their defensive counterparts in every category in PFF and by an average of 30 ranks. The biggest mismatches being TCU’s secondary that ranks 105th going up against T. Techs 13th pass ranking (Shough is hurt now but Colombi has seen plenty of action and graded out well in his last two starts (3rd highest rated passer currently)) and Tech’s 29th receiver ranking. The Raiders prefer to pass and they should do it often but even on the ground TCU has been giving up almost 6 yards per carry ranking 120th in the league. Both defenses are in the bottom 10% of the league in 3rd down conversion percentages, almost giving up 50% of 3rd downs. The FEI numbers for both teams show huge advantages to the offenses as well with T. Tech’s offense out grading TCU’s defense by an average of 75 ranks across all categories! TCU’s offense outranks T. Tech by an average of 33 ranks but would be a lot more but the turnover rate ranking is tipping the scales as TCU’s offense has been bad at protecting the ball and T. Techs defense has had a great turnover FEI rate ranking 16th (more reason to like the over, let's get a short-field or two). Both defenses have forgotten how to tackle, with TCU ranking 124th and T. Tech ranking 121st. Both special teams struggle as well as T. Tech ranks 101st and TCU ranks 77th. Love this BIG 12 over and think it's a shootout, too bad it’s not a noon game. Also great to see one of the greatest offensive minds back in action over at TCU, Jerry Kill. Although he is only listed as “special assistant to the head coach” I’m sure he provides plenty of great input to Sonny Cumbie on the offense and last I looked at 2nd half ATS data, Jerry Kill’s name remains at the top of the list while he was a head coach he was the master of finding weaknesses and defenses and adjusting to them in 2nd halfs.

Notre Dame/Vtech Under 47 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
No write-up again sorry won’t have too much more of these but just hungover and can’t concentrate on the numbers lol, knew I shoulda got all the write-ups done before I started drinking last night but couldn’t fit it in. Just know both defenses outrank their offense in FEI across all categories by an average of 40 ranks. Great signs for an under!

**Smutbucket** · 10-15-21, 03:36 PM

Week 6 Results: 5-3 (+2.31 units)
Season YTD: 33-19 (+12.74 units) (63%)

Week 7:
Auburn +4.5 (-101) 1.5x
Mississippi ML (-130)
NC State/BC Under 52 (-108)
UCLA +1 (-101)
Kentucky +21.5 (-102)

Week 7:
Auburn +4.5 (-101) Risking 1.52 units to win 1.5 units
I know Arkansas is 5-1 ATS this season and have outperformed expectations but this line is a bit of an over-reaction. By the numbers, Auburn dominates in almost every stat category and should not be the underdog so we gladly take the 4.5 and may even sprinkle some on the ML for half unit come gameday. Arkansas’s defense started off strong against it’s weaker opponents but has struggled lately, including giving up 52 points to Ole Miss last week where blown coverages could be seen all over the field. Their secondary now ranks 93rd according to PFF and their run defense ranks 85th. Auburn should be able to put up points regardless if it’s Bo Nix or Finley but I prefer they finally make the swap to Finley and end the Bo Nix era (how many starts do you have to suck before getting benched when playing as a “legacy player”). Auburn’s defense, regardless of it’s offensive struggles, is a top 10 powerhouse by most stat categories. They rank 7th overall in PFF, 13th in the pass rush, 11th in coverage, and 14th against the run. They’ve only allowed 3.2 yards per rush (ranking 21st) and that is what drives this Arkansas offense as they only throw 35% of the time. Advanced line stats are finally out and show strong advantages to Auburn on both sides of the ball as across all categories they outrank Arkansas by an average of 25 ranks. Auburn’s defensive line is at the top of most categories ranking 5th in line yards, 13 in opportunity rate, 24th in power rank, and 23rd in stuff ranking. They should force Jefferson to throw the ball and I think we finally see some mistakes from the young starter as this will be a much tougher defense then he faced last week at Ole Miss. Auburn is also a much more disciplined team as they rank 23rd in penalties per play and Arkansas is one of the most penalized teams in the nation, ranking 127th in penalties per play. Love this play so we do 1.5x units and may add half unit on the ML tmrw.

Ole Miss ML (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
I just don’t see Hendon Hooker doing enough to keep pace with this Ole Miss offense. I’ve talked about the Rebels offense a lot and love watching them. Interestingly enough Jeff Lebby, the offensive coordinator for Ole Miss used to be Huepel’s offensive coordinator at UCF so these two offenses are very similar. Ole Miss just has much more talent and in the 2nd year of the program changes where Huepel is only in his first year at Tennessee with less experienced assistants. In receiving, Ole Miss ranks 18th best in the nation according to PFF where Tennessee ranks 116th. At the line of scrimmage, more of the same with Ole Miss pass blocking ranking 33rd and 39th in run blocking where Tennessee's offensive line ranks 106th in pass blocking and 75th in run blocking. Granted Tennessee’s defense outranks Ole Miss’s defense in most categories (I thought you were gonna be good this season!) but at the end of the day I'll put my money on Corral and the established crew who RARELY make mistakes this season with only 0.5 giveaways per game ranking 2nd in the nation. Ole Miss’s defense does out rank Tennessee's defense in two key defensive categories: 3rd down conv% and red zone conv % so that’s another huge plus. Tennessee has put up big numbers against the softer teams in the league in South Carolina, Missouri, and Bowling Green but they are about to be in a shootout with a more explosive team that they won’t be able to contain. Leddy never lets his foot off the gas against his old boss and comes out with the big W!

NC State/BC Under 52 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
This is a pretty little under that favors two strong defenses and two teams that both havent faced much competition as NC State Sagarin SOS ranks 84th and Boston College’s is an even worse 129th. Boston College’s offense hasn’t been the same since Jurkovec went down and Grosel took over the starting role. Grosel ranks 91st in the league in passing according to PFF and he's the biggest weakness of this team. According to PFF, NC State ranks 9th overall, 17th in coverage, and 4th against the run. Boston College ranks 16th overall, but 9th in coverage and 10th against the run as they don’t apply much pressure ranking 107th in the nation as their lack of a pass rush drops their overall defensive ranking but they are still one of the best. Both teams tackle soundly ranking 4th and 8th at tackling in the nation. NC State’s defense ranks 2nd in the nation in 3rd down conv% allowed at 25% and 18th in red zone scoring at only 72%. Boston College defense is almost as good ranking 26th in 3rd down conv% at 33% and 44th in red zone scoring allowed. Neither defense gives up big plays with NC State only allowing 3 rushes of over 20 yards on the entire season. Boston College defense ranks 9th nationally in scrimmage plays of 20+ yards allowed and NC State ranks 23rd. NC State’s defensive line ranks 11th in line yards, 22nd in opportunity rank, 12th in power ranking, and 3rd in stuff ranking and will be another tough test for this BC offense like Clemson last week that held Boston College to 46 rushing yards on 34 carries. Both teams like to play possession ball as they average over 50% in TOP% and Boston College really likes to milk it, ranking 104th in plays per game.

UCLA +1 (-101) Risking 1.01 units to win 1 units
The biggest factor in determining this play was the absolute DOMINATION of line of scrimmage stats on both sides of the ball for a “pick’em”. The first week advanced line stats are available and they are LIGHTING UP in favor of UCLA in this matchup on both sides of the ball. UCLA’s offensive line ranks 8th in line yards, 15th in opportunity rank, 75th in power ranking and 8th in stuff ranking. A huge mismatch on paper against the Washington defensive line that ranks 112th in line yards, 115th in opportunity rank, 96th in power ranking and 106th in stuff ranking. UCLA's defensive line ranks 19th in line yards and middle of the pack in most other categories where Washington’s offensive line is middle of the pack as well. The one huge hidden mismatch is situationally on the obvious passing down as UCLA’s defensive coordinator has been great in that scenario, ranking 4th in the nation on line yards allowed in passing downs and Washington has been ineffective at generating any yards in that situation on offense as they rank 121st on passing downs. UCLA’s biggest weakness on defense is their secondary that ranks 93rd but that's not an area where Washington can exploit as their QB ranks 94th in passing and their receivers rank 86th. UCLA’s biggest strength on offense is their run game as they rank 20th in rushing (CHARBONNET!) and 21st in run blocking, which is the biggest weakness of this Washington team as they rank 89th against the run. The FEI ranks have these two teams pretty evenly matched but tip to UCLA as they’ve had the stronger SOS at 44th where Washington ranks 62nd. UCLA pulls off the big road win this week in the PAC!

Kentucky +21.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Not a surprise pick for me if you’ve been following along this season. We've been riding Kentucky for a few weeks now and no reason to stop now as this defense is getting wayyy too many points once again. Georgia’s defensive FEI numbers are intimidating with straight #1 rankings across almost the entire board, Kentucky is top 20 in most categories. They actually have given up less plays of 20+ yards than Georgia, ranking #1 in the league only giving up more than 20 yards on 11 plays the entire season! Georgia’s defense has great numbers against the run but they haven't faced an offensive line like this to date. Kentucky’s offensive line ranks 2nd in line yards, 1st in opportunity rank, and 2nd in stuff ranking so I think they can get some push this year, especially since they have a passing threat unlike last season where they only put 3 points but held Georgia to only 14 points. This Georgia team is really banged up with 14 players recently listed on their injury report as questionable this month, including JT Daniels who has missed the last two weeks but may likely return this week. Either way Kentucky should cover and if we get late news that JT Daniels is out, it may be worth a sprinkle on the moneyline. (at least in a parlay, live a little)

**Smutbucket** · 10-16-21, 09:24 AM

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 6 Results: 5-3 (+2.31 units)
Season YTD: 33-19 (+12.74 units) (63%)

Week 7 Adding:
Florida -12.5 (-105)
Miami/UNC Over 63 (-105)
Wisconsin -14 (-106)
Duke/UVA Over 69.5 (-105)
Pittsburgh -6.5 (-105)

Week 7 Adding:
Florida -12.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Florida should win big here even in death valley judging from the numbers, but you never know in these SEC rivalry games. Florida’s offense is currently #1 at running the ball averaging 6.7 yards per carry and LSU has been getting GASHED on the ground allowing opponents to run for 5.1 yards per pass against them. LSU’s defense has also been terrible on 3rd down allowing opponents to convert 50% of the time, ranking #121st in the nation. LSU can’t run the ball and rarely do so that will give plenty of opportunities for this UF pass rush that ranks 18th in the nation in sack rate to get some pressure on Max Johnson who currently ranks 94th in passing according to PFF (Lower than EMORY!) and Max has some of the worst running and hands fumble grades I have seen in a QB dropping his overall PFF rank to #115th where although Emory isn’t the greatest passer, his running abilities make him rank #47th overall amongst QBs (with 20% min dropbacks I take all my numbers from PFF). Florida’s biggest struggle on defense has actually been tackling and although their coverage somehow ranks 109th in PFF, they have improved almost every week and have only given up 54% completion rate to their opponents (ranked 15th) and only allowed 6.5 yards per pass (ranking 32nd). And although the PFF numbers don’t mismatch well, the FEI efficiency numbers do A LOT. Florida’s offense outranks LSU’s defense by an average of 60 ranks as UF’s offense is Top 20 of most categories and LSU is in bottom 20% of the league in most defensive categories. Florida defensive FEI numbers are pretty surprising as they rank 7th in defense overall (had to double check spreadsheet wasn't a typo during data transfer) but somehow they are and they outrank LSU’s offense by an average of 25 ranks across the board too. The biggest concern for this game will be penalties as UF is one of the most penalized teams in the nation and LSU the least. I just think this line is too low based on the fact of the rivalry in death valley and last year's shootout where UF’s defense was an absolute joke - but lots of development has been made on that side of the ball if you look at the FEI and hats off to Mullen for quickly transitioning his offense to the strengths of his players going from a pass-first team last year to a run-first team this year.

Miami/UNC Over 63 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
No brainer ACC shootout here. UNC’s biggest weakness on offense is their offensive line but for the first time in the history of the Miami Hurricane football program - they do not have a respectable pass rush (I would know as a hurricane fan) as they rank 98th in sack %. On offense UNC has all kinds of weapons with 7 different receivers with double-digit yards per catch. They love to throw the deep ball and they have 17 passing plays of over 30+ yards ranking 6th in the nation in passing plays and 6th in the nation in scrimmage plays over 30+ yards. Although Miami hasn’t been as explosive on offense this season (dealing with injuries), the UNC defense has been susceptible to the big play ranking 89th in long scrimmage plays allowed of over 30+ yards. Both teams run fast paced offenses and don’t possess the ball as Miami ranks 124th in TOP% and UNC ranks 81st. Yet both teams are in the upper half of total plays per game, with Miami ranking 26th in plays per game yet such an awful TOP%, they run one of the fastest offenses in America that prefers to throw 55% of the time. I like what I’ve seen from the new starter Tyler Van Dyke as he’s a great passer and should continue to perform well against this terrible UNC defense. UNC defense ranks 88th overall, 90th in coverage, 64th against the run, and 91st in tackling. Miami’s defense ranks out even worse in every category (but let’s not get into too much detail) and especially concerning is their tackling ranking 127th in the nation as UNC loves to throw little WR screens with blockers where one or two missed tackles could easily wind up going for long TD’s. If Howell has time for the long wheel routes and double moves to develop, forget about it they should get close to 62 like they put up on Miami last year. Miami has had a much harder schedule but their secondary has shown incapable of stopping these high-powered offenses. The last 3 times these two teams have faced off, it was a shoot-out and I expect the same as both offenses know each other well, and both defenses are in shambles. Take the over and give it time, points will be scored, we will surely break 50 and this is one of these games where things can change in an instant.

Duke/UVA Over 69.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Another ACC shootout in my opinion that points to at least 80 points being scored by every measurable stat categories. Where should we start? PFF - Duke’s offense outranks UVA’s horrible defense in every matchup by 81 ranks. Virginia outranks Duke’s defense by 53 ranks in every category with the lowest mismatch coming in the pass rush but still outranked by 40. UVA loves to throw the ball and they should pass all day against this Duke secondary that ranks 85th in PFF (with a BAD SOS) and have allowed 9.7 yards per pass on the season (ranking 122nd). Duke prefers to run the ball and UVA has been getting destroyed on the ground allowing opponents to rush for 5.8 yards per rush (ranking 119th). In long scrimmage plays, both offenses are one of the best at explosive plays as UVA ranks 1st in plays of 20+ yards and 30+ yards. Duke ranks 24th in 20+ yards and 26th in 30+ yards. Both defenses give up A TON of big plays, with both defenses ranking in the bottom 10% of the league of long scrimmage plays allowed in 20+ yards, 30+ yards, 40+ yards, and even 50+ yards as both defenses have given up more than 6 of those on the season (so we guaranteed at least two) FEI shows more of the same mismatches with Duke outranking UVA’s defense by 45 ranks on average across all categories and Dukes defense by an average of 26 ranks across all FEI categories. Like I said, no way the bookies can put a high enough number in this matchup where two teams defenses have been almost non-existent and the strengths of each offense heavily playing into their favors against the D’s. Another over and I’ve been red hot in totals this year.

Wisconsin -14 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
This should be an old-fashioned curb stomping beat down at the line of scrimmage. These option teams never fare well if they don’t establish the line of scrimmage and I see no way they do that against arguably the best defensive line in the nation. Wisconsin ranks 1st in line yards, 1st on standard downs, and 1st on passing downs, 2nd in opportunity rank, and 2nd in stuff ranking - all the while only allowing opponents to rush for only 1.7 yards per rush against them (ranked 1st too duh). If you consider their opponents and the sagarin strength of schedule ranking of #2, they are the best d-line and Army should get NO movement up front - if you don’t count sack rate (who cares how often Army gets sacked when they have made only 33 passes all season) Wisconsin outranks the Army offensive line by an average of 46 ranks across all line line categories. Did I mention the Army's Strength of schedule? #109th and an absolute joke compared to Wisconsin. Last week, Wisconsin got back to running the ball on offense rushing for 391 yards last week averaging 6.41 yards per carry. Mertz is obviously a big problem but against this much smaller Army team I expect them to run all day and open up some passes as Wisconsin trys to get back on track after facing a few tough teams and losses. Even with it’s near impossibly difficult schedule (Penn State, ND and Michigan!) and horrible offense , Wisconsin’s defense still ranks #2 in 3rd down conversion % allowed, #15 in red zone scoring allowed, 5th in completion % allowed. Army will go down hard as Wisconsin should run for 300+ and hold Army to less than 100 yards rushing. I bought 13.5 at my book.

Pittsburgh -6.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Sorry fella’s this was the last one I looked into and locked in on the week and don’t have much time for writeup. Just know we have big mismatches on FEI and offensive/defensive lines on both sides of the ball.

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 10-16-21, 10:00 AM

You have the best writeups here for NCAA football and hope your spot in today. I deposited bitcoin in my account after withdrawing a nice sum and took a bonus so I'm playing all your leads today with free cash so hope you hit it outta the park today!! Great job

**Smutbucket** · 10-22-21, 03:47 PM

Thanks Seahawk - Lets keep it rolling!

DAPPER DAN PICKS:
WEEK 7 RESULTS: 7-3 (+4.34 UNITS)
SEASON YTD: 40-22 (+17.08 UNITS) (65%)

Week 8: (more to come tmrw morning)
Colorado State -3 (-115)
Kansas St/T. Tech Over 60.5 (-105)
NC State -3 (-105)
Boston College +6.5 (-107)
Pittsburgh -3 (-115)

Week 8:
Colorado State -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 to win 1 units
Head Coach Steve Addazio knows how to coach defense and it’s showing in his second year after moving to Colorado State. He is paired up with Chuck Heater again who is a very experienced defensive coordinator who has a long history with Steve including stints at UF from 09-10 where they were ranked 5th in ‘09 in ypp allowed and 13th in ‘10. Then they moved on together to Temple in ‘11-12 where they had a good defense but then they parted ways in 2013 when Steve went to Boston College, where defense was the strength of the program for many years. It all starts in the trenches, at the defensive line where they are one of the highest ranked d-line’s in most categories ranking 10th in line yards, 20th in opportunity rate, 4th in stuff ranking, and 16th in sack rate and only allowing 2.2 yards per rush(ranked #1 and held Iowa to 54 rushing yards!) . A huge mismatch on paper for this Utah State offensive line that has been struggling, ranking 126th in line yards, 120th in opportunity rate, 49th in power ranking, 126th in stuff ranking, and averaging 3.9 yards per rush (ranked 80th). They will have to get all their yardage through the air but Colorado State’s secondary has been no slouch either ranking #14th in yards per pass, #13 in completion % allowed, and ranked 31st according to PFF. They are also 4th in 3rd down conv % and 22nd in red zone scoring % allowed so their defense has been solid no matter where you look. Although their offense hasn’t been as lively, they should get going against a Utah State defense that has been horrible by the numbers this season allowing 5.9 yards per rush, ranking 122nd!. And Colorado State loves to run the ball 60% of the time so they should rack up the yards on the ground in this matchup. Utah State’s defense is ranked poorly in every area, ranking 121st overal, 113th in the pass rush, 109th in the secondary, and 113th against the run. I usually don’t take Friday Night sh*t conferences games, but I like this one as CSU struggled early (even I called them out against Stanford) but have bounced back nicely - especially on defense.

Kansas St./T. Tech Over 60.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Beautiful little BIG 12 Noon Shootout! All the numbers agree and weather looks clear except for some winds but I think both teams will move the balls regardless. Both defenses are struggling, especially Texas Tech’s who ranks in the bottom of most FEI ranks. Kansas State’s offense is much better with Skylar Thompson back from injury although they ran into a tough Iowa State defense last week and only put up 20 points, I expect both teams to easily get 30 this week. By PFF standards, Kansas State’s defense has definitely taken a step back this year as they rank 91st overall, 93rd in coverage, and 93rd in run defense. Texas Tech’s 29th overall ranking offense should have a big day against them. Texas Tech defense gives up a ton of big plays, ranking #115th in long scrimmage plays allowed over 30+ yards. Although Kansas State’s defense has been good at stopping the big play (ranking 10th in the nation in allowed) - Texas Tech offense has tons of explosive plays ranking 13th in scrimmage plays over 30 yards. Both defenses rank in the bottom 5% of the league in 3rd down conversion % allowed, and red zone scoring % allowed. Kansas State’s offense is middle of the pack in 3rd downs and RZ scoring (but played two games with Skylar) and Texas Tech;s offense is excellent on 3rd down ranking 10th and 19th in red zone scoring. Neither defensive line has been effective at applying pressure and we have great kickers on both sides as Kansas State’s kicker has hit 83% and Texas Techs has hit every kick. Oh Did I mention these two teams can’t tackle? Kansas State ranks 93rd in tackling and Texas Tech ranks 109th in tackling. So many reasons to love this play. Enjoy this shootout.

NC State -3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This write-up pains me to write as I sip from my Miami Hurricanes coffee mug. But the numbers are too far tipped in NC State's favor for me to pass up on this one. NC States’ offense, across all categories in PFF, ouranks Miami’s in EVERY category, SIGNIFICANTLY, and by an average of 63 ranks (WHAT!). Miami’s defense is in the bottom 15% of every category with their highest ranking of 89th in the pass rush. NC State’s defense is in the top 10% of almost every category (except Pass rush) but they rank 8th overall, 10th in coverage, and 5th in run defense. In tackling - another huge advantage as Miami has forgotten how to tackle ranking 128th in the nation and NC State ranks 6th. FEI rankings show more of the same as NC State’s offense outranks Miami’s defense by an average of 30 ranks across all categories. As Miami’s offense has struggled at times, the FEI mismatch on defense is even bigger as NC State’s defense outranks Miami’s by an average of 57 ranks across all categories. NC State also has a top 10 defensive line, ranking 2d in line yards, 7th in opportunity rate, 6th in power ranking, and 1st in stuff ranking. Miami will struggle in short yardage situations. I only bet against Miami once in the last few years, and that was last year's bowl game against Okie State. Okie State came out with a huge lead but then the gambling gods made it a close game in an attempt to smite me for betting against my own team - but Okie State prevailed.. Hopefully the gambling gods let the game play out like the numbers say they should and no weird juju happens. (I will spend the winnings on only good things I promise) This line is definitely fishy by the way but I'm going to chalk it up as all the Miami money that comes in every week regardless if they’re good or not, they say we got lotta drug money down here it's probably that being spent on the evil gambling.

Boston College +6.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Bought this to 7 with my bookie but use PickMonitor to track all my lines and they don't have that ability yet. Love getting this many points with MUCH superior defense. I talked about this BC defense a lot last week as they cashed that nice little under for us last week - although their offense struggled against a tough NC state defense and they abandoned the run game only running 6 times in the 2nd half. They should NOT have the same issues against a Louisville defense that has been awful all year long. Louisville defense ranks 100th overall in PFF, 118th in the pass rush, 59th in coverage, 110th in run defense, and 70th in tackling. Boston College prefers to run since Jurkovec went down and they should run all over this Louisville defensive line, who doesn't have one player over 300 lbs. Louisville’s defensive line ranks in the bottom 10% of almost all line categories and they have given up 4.5 yards per rush (ranking 88th) BC’s defense also matches up well as they don’t blitz much and get after the passer which is a recipe for disaster against Malik Cunningham. I'm not too worried that Malik torched them last season as they only won by 7 in that one and Jeff Hafley is a great coach and will make adjustments and their defense is much better than it was last year. Louisville hasn’t beat any of their FBS opponents by more than 7 points this season as their defense can’t stop anyone and there is no reason why they should beat BC by more than 7.

Pittsburgh -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
We are going back to our boys at Pitt. Clemson just not the same, sorry limited time for write-ups this week and don’t wanna spend too much time on this one as I’ve talked a lot about Pitt and Clemson is clearly being overvalued this season and no-where near the effectiveness of the last few years - and it’s all in the numbers.

**Smutbucket** · 10-23-21, 09:17 AM

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 7 Results: 7-3 (+4.34 units)
Season YTD: 40-22 (+17.08 units) (65%)

Week 8 Adds:
Syracuse +3.5 (-105) 1.5x
Syracuse ML (+150) .5x
Oklahoma St./ Iowa State Under 47 (-104)
South Carolina/Texas AM Under 45 (-105)
Utah -3 (-105)

Week 8 adds:
Syracuse +3.5 (-105) Risking 1.57 units to win 1.5 units
Syracuse ML (+150) Rirsking .5 units to win .75 units
Favorite play of the week. Decided to do 1.5x and then extra .5 on the ML. If you look at V. Tech’s game log and PFF ranks you will see a downward trend over the season, culminating in last week's 28-7 blowout against Pitt. Pitt’s not even a good running team and they ran for 208 yards on Vtech and held V.Tech to under 100 rushing yards and 3.21 yards per rush, an ongoing trend this season as the Hokies are averaging only 3.51 yards per carry. This Syracuse team can run damn well, ranking 9th in the nation according to PFF (and ran for 165 yards on 30 carries last week against CLEMSON!) and the same mismatch in the trenches can be seen on both sides of the ball. Syracuse's offensive line outranks Vtechs defensive line by an average of 40 ranks across all categories. Syracuse's defensive line outranks Vtechs offensive line by an average of 47 ranks across all categories. The biggest mismatch is in the pass rush as Vtech’s offensive line ranks 100th in sack % - and Syracuse ranks 17th in sack %. Syracuse is ranked 8th in TFLs this season and they should get a handful against Vtech who ranks 60th in TFL allowed. Burmeister should be getting all types of pressure and he doesn't have much of an arm and currently ranks 168th in passing according to PFF. His receivers don’t help him out either as they rank 85th in the league, according to PFFl. They really don’t have any sort of identity on offense and rank 92nd overall. WE also have a strong mismatch in special teams as Syracuse ranks 14th in the nation and V.Tech ranks 61st. Their SOS is pretty evenly matched yet according to line stats and PFF we have huge advantages so we take the dog as the public perception of a big name school Vtech but since Fuente took over and had a great first year, they have been on a downward trend the last 5 years and I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish this season worse than they did last season at 5-6. (SHOULDA STAYED OUT THE POWER 5) LETS GO CUSE!

Oklahoma St./ Iowa State Under 47 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
As I match-up each team's offenses to their opponents defenses to their corresponding stat categories - I have my spreadsheet numbers light up RED for defensive advantages and GREEN for offensive advantages and this matchup lights up RED in every spreadsheet and stat I compare. At the line of scrimmage - Oklahoma State’s offense is out-ranked by Iowa State's strong defensive line across all categories by an average of 47 ranks. Iowa State’s offensive line as well by an average of 43 ranks across all categories. According to PFF both defensives have strong advantages as Iowa State is ranked 17th and Okie State ranked 12th in overall defense. Both have been great at applying pressure as Iowa State ranks #7th in sack% and Okie State ranks 16th in sack %. Both defenses are Top 15 defenses in most FEI categories where the offenses are just middle of the pack. Both defenses are great on 3rd down and in the red zone with Okie State ranking 6th in 3rd down conv % and 44th in the red zone. Iowa State is ranked 23rd on 3rd down and 20th in the red zone. Okie State prefers to run 65% of the time but Iowa State’s front is one of the best in the nation with only allowing 3 yards per carry to its opponents. They rank 21st in run defense and 13th in tackling and is the strength of this defense. Okie State’s defense has only allowed 3 yards per carry too. Iowa State doesn’t give up any big plays as they rank #1st in opponents 30+ yard plays allowed, and surprisingly, Okie State ranks 41st on defense in LSP (long scrimmage plays) allowed. Neither offense is explosive, with Okie State ranking 119th in long scrimmage plays over 30 yards, and Iowa State ranks 51st. Iowa State should rack up some TFL’s as both defenses are in the upper half of the league in TFLs and Okie State’s offense has given up a lot of TFLs ranking 103rd in TFL’s allowed. Iowa State loves long slow methodical drives as they rank 33rd in TOP % at 52% but rank 100th in plays per game. Purdy, although a seasoned veteran, has definitely struggled over the years against his tougher competition and this year especially. Oklahoma State also has 12 guys recently listed on their injury report - all on the offensive side of the ball - so they will be thin. Originally I had Iowa State circled for this game but was shocked by the -7 number. How many times do you see a Top 10 ranked team an underdog by that many points? Think it will be very low scoring and the bookies think so too as the number is set pretty damn low but I still like it.

South Carolina/Texas AM Under 45 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Will South Carolina get any points in this matchup? Before their entire offensive backfield got injured they had horrible numbers. How good can all of their backups be? Starting QB Doty got hurt last game so in comes career backup senior Zeb Noland who has only seen a few starts from injuries and was benched back at Iowa State in 2018 when Brock Purdy took over and hasn’t seen any action since then (3 years!) . Not only that but 4 of their top 5 leading rushers on the season are out or listed as questionable (WILD!). Their offensive line is in the bottom 10% of almost all categories so they won’t get any help there and rank 105th in sack% allowed. They rank 104th in pass blocking and 67 in run blocking. They will have lots of trouble blocking this Texas AM pass rush that ranks 36th in sack%. South Carolina’s offense ranks in the bottom 10% of almost all line categories and are facing a defensive line that is ranked in the top 15% of almost all categories. Texas AMs offense does struggle in pass protection as was evident in the Arkansas game and they rank 75th in pass blocking. That is the biggest strength of this South Carolina team as they rank 2nd in the pass rush (According to PFF)! Both teams have been under teams on the season going 2-5 situationally so the number is low. As long as Texas AM doesn’t up over 35 points themselves I think we’re in good shape and I’m sure Texas AM will want to rest up as they have 10 players of their own listed on the injury report and have Auburn and Ole Miss on deck so they will keep it bland and milk the clock in a game where they are favored by 20.

Utah -3 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Wow, quite the surprise for this program as we all expected Charlie Brewer to raise the stakes to the next level but he turned out to be a total bust and left the program after being benched in the 3rd game and Cameron Rising rose from the ashes and led the team to 3 huge wins beating Washington State, USC, and Arizona State. Cameron Rising has been superb, completing 65% of his paases for 7.4 yards per pass, 9 TDs, 2 INTS. He is ranked 39th in passing according to PFF, and can also do damage with his legs. He has a run game to support him averaging 5.5 yards per carry ranking 12th in the nation. Although Oregon State has only allowed opponents to run for 3.6 yards against them (ranked 38th) It hasn’t been against good running teams and are actually ranked 98th in run defense according to PFF. Oregon States 3rd down defense is a joke - allowing opponents to convert 52% of the time, ranking 126th. Utah’s offensive line struggled early in pass blocking but that is not a strength of this Oregon State team as their pass rush ranks 102nd in PFF. We also have a strong advantage in tackling as Oregon State ranks 119th in the league and Utah is just middle of the pack. In FEI Utah’s offense outranks Oregon State's defense by 41 ranks and that includes Brewer’s shitty games so if you look at the FEI with just Rising starting its probably a much bigger mismatch. All these numbers where Utah has the advantage as well as the stronger SOS as they rank 15th in Sagarin’s and Oregon State ranks 54th. Utah is also one of the least penalized teams, ranking 12th in penalties per play and Oregon State one of the most - ranking 89th in penalties per play. I also like how Utah is 2-4 ATS to date and Oregon State is 4-2 ATS. Another -3 fav and always buy down to -2.5 if you can for under -125 I think its worth it in most cases and since I’m not buying on pickmonitor I’m sure one or two of these 3 point favorites will push, ha.

**Smutbucket** · 10-29-21, 03:42 PM

After being handed our first losing week of the season last week in week 8 we took an extra hard look at the numbers this week. We have a couple more ready for tmrw just finishing writeups and waiting on numbers - but these are locked in!

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 8 Results: 4-6 (-2.17 units)
Season YTD: 44-28 (+14.91 units)

Week 9:
Wisconsin/Iowa under 37 (-105)
Auburn ML (-135)
UCF -11 (-105)
Texas Tech +19.5 (-105)
Penn State +18.5 (-105)
North Carolina +3.5 (-107)
UVA/BYU Over 64.5 (-105)

Week 9:
Wisconsin/Iowa under 37 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Show me down to Squaresville where all the squares live because I’m making this square play, ALL DAY!. Oddly enough this matchup has gone OVER in 3 of the last 4 seasons with very low totals set but there’s a CLEAR CUT advantage to both defenses in this matchup that makes a write-up a piece of cake for this play. First - at the line of scrimmage, where Wiscy still reigns #1 in line yards, #1 in standard downs, #2 in passing down, #1 in opportunity rate, #2 in stuff ranking and #17 in sack rate. Unlike years past - Iowa has no run game this season, ranking #110th in yards per rush at 3.1 with line yard ranks even worse at #121, #128th in stuff ranking, and 100th in sack ranking. Whisky has no QB and they are well aware of that fact so they run the ball 65% of the time, but they will be running into the teeth of this defense as they rank #8th in yards per rush allowed, and 13th in PFF run defense. Iowa’s defensive secondary is ranked #2 in PFF and are ranked #2 in passes defended per game and they’re not about to give a bunch of yards in the air against a Wiscy offense who has struggled to protect their QB (Ranking 108th in PFF) and led by Graham Mertz who is ranked #133rd in QBs PFF passer and overall rating. Both teams tackle very well and rank in the top 5 of long scrimmage plays over 20+ yards allowed. Both offenses have been terrible at producing long scrimmage plays with Iowa ranking #110 in over 20+ yards and Wisconsin ranking #127th. Both teams will chew clock and be very conservative as both coaches know each other’s weaknesses well and both will look to not be the team that makes the mistake that makes the difference in what should be a close game. Stick with under and watch defenses reign.

Auburn ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units
As much as I love Ole Miss, I think this is a great spot for Auburn to win at home. Ole Miss's biggest defensive weakness has been stopping the run - especially on 1st downs (allowing opponents to average 4.91 yards per carry on 1st downs alone!) - ranking 115th in line yards allowed on standard downs. This is where Auburn excels, averaging 6.48 yards per carry on first downs! Tank Bigsby should have a huge day on the ground as their entire offensive line outranks Ole Miss’s defensive line by an average of 41 ranks across all categories. Auburn also has an advantage on the defensive line as they are one of the best in the league and outranking Ole Miss’s offensive line by an average of 25 ranks across all categories. PFF shows advantages on both sides of the ball as well and Auburn with the much stronger defense - ranking 14th overall. Ole Miss’s defense played well last week, but they struggle against up-tempo offenses with coverage and packages and Auburn is very capable of running a fast up-tempo speed and will most likely be doing the same, knowing that’s how Arkansas put up 51 against them a few weeks ago with a fast pace. Auburn is the much more disciplined team as Ole Miss ranks #126th in penalties per play, and Auburn is 23rd. Auburn has an edge in special teams as they’ve been solid ranking 5th overall in PFF and Ole Miss ranking 43rd. In tackling, and every defensive category Auburn has the advantage and you know I always prefer to bet the better defense so let’s go Tigers……!!!!

UCF -11 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
It’s been 6 weeks since starting Knight QB Gabriel got injured, fracturing his collarbone. Malzahn has hinted at his return and most collarbone fractures take 6-8 weeks, but I don’t think UCF will risk it, or will need to in this matchup as they should dominate this game regardless. Leading rusher BOWSER has been battling injury and returned two weeks ago but hasn’t produced huge numbers yet - expect him to feast on this Temple run defense that has given up 5.2 yards per carry (ranked 114th) and is outranked by 60 ranks across all line categories vs the UCF offensive line. Despite losing their starting QB, Gus’s run first offense has been explosive, ranking 19th in yards per carry averaging 5.3. According to PFF, Temple’s secondary is even worse and is ranked 100th in coverage, and 96th in tackling. All this with a much weaker SOS rank as Temple ranks 102nd and UCF 72nd. Sagarin Ranks show a huge ranking mismatch too as UCF ranks 59th and Temple ranks 139th rightfully so when you consider their offensive production - which Temple ranks 111th overall according to PFF. A few weeks back freshman D’wan Mathis took over the starting QB role which provided a little spark to the Temple offense, but don’t think it will make much of a difference when you factor in their other positional struggles as Temples receiving ranks 104th and run game ranks 114th - only averaging 3.7 yards per carry (ranking 90th) . Temple also recently lost it’s two top leading tacklers (both safeties - and good indicator of a shit defense as safeties are making all your tackles). Tyler is definitely out and Griffin is questionable. Last year Temple covered the big 28 point spread on the road and I think oddsmakers over-adjusted this line this year as UCF should cover easily despite their 2-5 ATS record this season.

Texas Tech +19.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Against FBS opponents this season, Oklahoma’s average margin of victory is 8.7 points (remove a 21 points win against TCU and the number drops to 6.6). This is simply not a defense that can win by more than 3 possessions, and the numbers show that would be very unlikely in this game. Despite Texas Tech firing head coach Matt Wells, Sonny Cumbie remains the offensive coordinator and play caller (and promoted to interim head coach) and this offense has been very productive against it’s weak BIG 12 opponents (like Oklahoma!) FEI Shows this offense is in Top 15 in almost all categories - which outranks Oklahoma's weak defense by an average of 57 ranks across all FEI categories. Surprisingly - this is more-so than Oklahoma FEI outranks Texas Tech’s defense (by 1 rank - ha!) Oklahoma’s biggest weakness on defense is their secondary that ranks 94th according to PFF and 82nd in tackling. Texas Tech’s offense can be explosive and have averaged 4.8 yards per rush. They’ve had more explosive plays of 40+ yards than anyone in the league with 20 on the season and 3 of more than 70 yards. Their receivers have plenty of speed, rank out to 30th in PFF, and have averaged 9.2 yards per pass (ranking 11th in the nation). Texas Tech’s defense was gouged on the ground by Texas and TCU heavily skewing the numbers - but aside from those games they played very well against their inferior running opponents holding 5 of their 8 opponents to under 100 yards - including last week’s game against Kansas State. Texas Tech’s defense is more disciplined and their kicker has yet to miss a FG This season so let's take the points with the big road dog who’s been beat badly the last two seasons by the same team - so they may be a bit underestimated from their undefeated opponent.

Penn State +18.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Who in the hell has this Ohio State team played to warrant this absurdly high line? Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, Akron, Tulsa, Minnesota, Oregon? Oregon beat them and smashed them at the line of scrimmage averaging 7.1 yards per carry and only allowing Ohio State to run for 4.1 yards per carry. Penn State has beaten Auburn, Wisconsin, and only lost to Iowa because Clifford got hurt but since they lost two straight we’re going to make them 3 possession dogs? Even with their losses their defense remains one of the best, especially in the secondary where they rank 5th in PFF, 9th in total passes broken up and 9th in passes defended, 1st in yards per pass allowed - at 4.9, #15th in completion % allowed. Although their run defense struggles according to PFF, they have only given up 3.7 yards per carry on the season (ranking 37th). FEI has their defense in top 10 of almost all categories, and average ranking of 15th across all categories. I think this will be much closer than a 3 possession game by the numbers, especially if you consider the SOS mismatch. Ohio State has also been hit by the injury bug with 11 players recently listed as Questionable on their injury report. Most teams are susceptible to let-down spots and poor performances on any week, Penn State was due for one last week after a heartbreaking loss to Iowa, a bye week, and Ohio State on deck against a struggling Illinois team but they still should keep this one close and I love this pick, but will hold back to just 1 unit.

North Carolina +3.5 (-107) Risking 1.07 units to win 1 units
Last year, UNC lost big to Notre Dame and were dominated at the line of scrimmage only averaging 2.9 yards per carry, and Notre Dame averaging 5.53 yards per carry in their matchup - they also gave up 6 sacks. But this year it’s revenge time and the offensive/defensive line numbers show a mismatch in favor of UNC on both sides of the ball - by an average of 20 ranks across all categories. Notre Dame has only mustered up 3 yards per carry on the season! (ranking #119th). Both offensive lines have struggled in pass protection but UNC’s has shown improvement from the start of the season. I was surprised to see the FEI numbers show an edge to UNC’s defense (as they've been horrible) over Notre Dame’s and they were heavily skewed due to the fact that Notre Dame has really struggled in first down drive rate, and busted drive rate, ranking #103rd and 124th and that's where UNC’s defense is at it’s best, ranking 39th in first down drive rate and 19th in busted drive rate. Notre Dame also lost starting Safety and 2nd leading tackler on the team this year, Kyle Hamilton, so expect the big play UNC offense to test them early and often and look for the big plays they’ve been hitting all season, ranking 2nd in 30+ yard plays. This is a revenge game for Mack Brown and this Notre Dame team is not the same with their offense losing 4 year starter Ian Book nor is their defense since losing their defensive coordinator guru - Clark Lea. I bought this to 4 at my bookie and you should too but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tar Heels pull off the upset on the road against the 6-1 team who has had a pretty soft schedule to date. Tar Heels are also coming off a bye week and Notre Dame is coming off a double digit win against USC but a game where they were outgained in yards per play and had quite a few red zone stops to make the win appear larger than it really did - much like what happened against Wisconsin too.

BYU/UVA over 64.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I couldn’t believe my eyes when I read the situational total trends for BOTH of these teams have gone under in 6 of 8 games they’ve played. My spreadsheet lights up GREEN in every category for both teams - indicating STRONG advantages for the offenses for both teams. Across all FEI stats, Virginia’s offense outranks BYU’s defense by 61 ranks. BYU’s offense outranks UVA’s (HORRIBLE) defense by 70 ranks. At the line of scrimmage same thing, with Virginia's offensive line outranking by 31 ranks on average across all categories and BYU’s offensive line by 40 ranks. PFF, equally mismatched, with positional offensive matchups outranking their defensive counterparts by an average of 40 ranks for UVA and an average of 85 ranks for BYU (85 ranks!). I’ve talked a lot about Brennan Armstrong and his receiving corps as I back UVA a lot, and there isn't a defense they can’t put up big numbers against if they are in sync. BYU’s Jaren Hall has shown improvement every week in PFF scales and currently ranks 16th overall - he has more weapons than Brennan as his receivers are ranked 6th overall according to PFF. Both defenses suck on 3rd downs and both offenses are great on 3rd down. Both team defenses give up a ton of big plays, and both offenses account for big plays. Yada yada yada. Easy game to fire away on the over especially with the nice situational trend in favor of the under for both teams forcing oddsmakers to put a lower number then expectations to balance the market.

**Smutbucket** · 10-30-21, 09:02 AM

DAPPER DAN PICKS:
WEEK 8 RESULTS: 4-6 (-2.17 UNITS)
SEASON YTD: 44-28 (+14.91 UNITS)

Week 9 Adds:
MSU TT Under 23 (-110) .5x
Michigan -4 (-109) .5x
Arizona State -16 (-105)
Minnesota -7.5 (-105)
California ML (+108)
Washington +2.5 (+100)

Michigan -4 (-109) Risking .55 units to win .5 units
MSU TT Under 23 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units
I think Michigan wins this one easily to be honest but taking the TT under and the points for half a unit to be safe as that many points is concerning in these big rivalry matchups. Last year Michigan State was a 21 point underdog and came out with the upset - so it’s time for revenge. The numbers show much stronger advantages to Michigan - with a harder SOS. I think Sagarin was a bit generous SOS ranking of 56th for Michigan State as not one of their opponents has a winning record. The two halfway decent defenses Michigan State has faced gave up only 20 points against Indiana and 23 points against Nebraska - but this Michigan defense is definitely a tier up from those two teams by the numbers. Michigan’s is a slightly better SOS with more impressive wins and stats through-out and leads in many more categories. The key stats on offense AND defense - Michigan has strong advantages -- 3rd down %, 4th down %, and red zone scoring %. FEI shows strong advantages too with Michigan offense outranking by an average of 20 ranks across all FEI stats and Michigan’s defense outranking MSU’s offense by 32 ranks across all FEI stats. Michigan is much more disciplined, ranking 34th vs 95th in penalties per play. They also make less mistakes, nor give up many sacks as Cade McNamara seems to maneuver great in the pocket and doesn’t make the dumb desperation throws. If it comes down to a kick we have the better kicker too so we can squeeze one out but I don’t think it will be necessary. This was my first write-up of the week, but was waiting in hopes it would drop 3. Now the whole world seems to be on Michigan State yet the line hasn't budged and I even saw it drop to -4.5 in some places? Good indicator that Michigan is the right side as well even though I don’t hold a lot of weight on line movement (as the bookies control that and who knows what those crazy a$$holes are up to)

Arizona State -16 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
How many times in history will you get to bet on a team that lost half its coaching staff, including its head coach for not getting vaccinated? This is the first and is sadly the new norm as big PHARMA implements it’s control over our individual rights (don’t get me started). Interesting tidbit I discovered in looking into play calling duties. Washington State lost one of it’s co-offensive coordinator Stutzman, as well as Rolovich and a number of other assistants. Brian Smith, the other co-offensive coordinator is now the play caller and defensive coordinator was made the head coach. Do you know who called the plays all season? Brian Smith called the majority of the plays the first 4 games when they went 1-3 and then STUTZMAN took over for the California game which led to the 3 game win streak and the offensive spark. So Smith averaged 17.25 points per game (not including his FCS game) and Stutzman averaged 28.6 points per game. Sure they kept their first game with BYU close, but I’m sure BYU didn’t know what to expect (and more reasons to like them this week). ASU had a bye last week to study up. By the numbers, Arizona State has very strong advantages on the offensive side of the ball, as Washington State’s defense has been piss poor, especially their run game that ranks 90th in PFF and allowing 4.7 yards per carry (ranking 92). This is where Arizona State THRIVES as they average 5.5 yards per carry, rank 16th in PFF running, and 18th in PFF run blocking. The line of scrimmage stats show this same huge mismatch as Arizona State outranks Washington State by 61 ranks across all categories. Even on the defensive line, Arizona State has an advantage as they outrank Washington State in almost every category and by an average of 16 ranks. ASU is great in the pass rush, and rank 10th in sack%, a place where Washington State struggles without a mobile QB, they rank 59th in sack%. FEI shows more mismatches on both sides of the ball, ASU offense outranks WSU defense by average of 32 ranks. ASU defense outranks WSU offence by an average of 47 ranks. Even without the coaching debacle, ASU has a strong edge in the numbers. Utah was able to stop the Arizona run game to contain the offense, but Washington State will not be able to. Lets go Sun Devils - and I guess this is square too bc of the coach firings but I bet on T. Tech with the fired coach! (and frick you big Pharma for stealing our rights - I’m not against vaccinations, I’m against stealing individual rights and handing them to the big corporations that have a long history of neglecting quality control, putting profits over human lives, and lying about drug side-effects. AHHH that's it, no politics - ALL FOOTBALL!)

California ML (+108) Risking 1 units to win 1.08 units
Got my tin-foil hat on for this one as the numbers I tend to look at and analyze for games won’t show you a huge advantage to California, but the market line speaks differently. On one side, you have a team that’s 2-5 with it’s only two wins being Colorado and FCS team Sacramento State, and on the other you have 5-2 Oregon State (and 5-2 ATS). In the last two years they’ve faced off, Oregon State has won and covered - and you finna tell me this game’s a PICK EM!? Bookies are begging you to take Oregon State as something dictates a big PAC 12 upset as they all seem to be eating each other up - and I think it happens again this week in Cal. Cal was actually one of my fav teams from the eye test coming into the season they were one of the only team total bets I made for the season - over 6 - and it’s been bad to this point but I think we somehow pull off a win as despite the poor record, Cal was right in the game to win against TCU and Oregon last week. Oregon State’s weakness is their secondary as they rank 83rd in PFF, and have been horrible on 3rd downs, ranking 126th in 3rd down conv %. Both offensive lines have strong advantages and both FEI numbers show strong advantages to the offenses - with poor defensively tackling. Expect a high-scoring affair and every season I like to bust out a few “tin-foil hat” specials and this is definitely one of them! I already see a few squares on the Beavers and sharps on the Bears.

Washington +2.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
Love betting a 1-6 ATS team against an inferior team! Washington has had some growing pains this season but are starting to gel together. Both of these teams can't run the ball very well averaging 3.5 yards per carry, but both defenses have given up a ton of yardage on the ground. So this game will probably come down to the passing game where we have a STRONG advantage in the secondary as Washington’s secondary is one of the best in the nation ranking 3rd according to PFF (Stanford’s secondary ranks 74th). They've only given up 5.2 yards per pass (ranking 3rd) , where Stanford has given up 7.1 yards per pass. Also strong advantages on 3rd down conv % as Washington offense ranks #17 and #1 in red zone scoring as they scored in every red zone opportunity. Stanford is just average in those categories and have struggled on offense in 3rd down ranking 93rd. Much better tacklers as Stanford ranks 92nd in tackling and Washington ranks 55th. They are much more disciplined, ranking #17th in penalties per play, where Stanford ranks 103rd. They have a better turnover margin and kicker has hit more FG’s at a higher percentage. Sorry for the short writeup as I’m pressed for time this morning! Buy to 3!

Minnesota -7.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units
Again buy this to 7, I just get screwed on all my lines as I track on pick monitor (ALL HANDICAPPERS SHOULD USE 3rd PARTY VERIFICATION TRACKERS! WE NEED THIS TO ROOT OUT THE SCAMDICAPPERS AND BS’ERS WHO CAN'T ADD/TRACK THEIR OWN UNITS AND INFEST THE SPORTS GAMBLING COMMUNITY) Not much time for writeup this morning but just know Minnesota leads in all the stats I compare, significantly, and the stronger SOS. Mismatches on both sides of the ball in PFF, FEI, and Offensive/Defensive line. This should be an easy one like when Duke blew them out.

**SEAHAWKHARRY** · 10-30-21, 09:46 AM

Good Luck today

**Smutbucket** · 11-03-21, 03:40 PM

Thanks Seahawk, Another winning week! Hope someones tailing and eating as much as I am lately

DAPPER DAN PICKS:
WEEK 9 RESULTS: 8-4 (+3.73 UNITS)
SEASON YTD: 52-32 (+18.64 UNITS) (62%)

Week 10:
CMU/W. Mich. Under 64.5 (-103)
Sorry fella’s no time for write-up as we got two hours til gametime and I have a busy evening. I just finished organizing all the numbers for this week’s games and this UNDER stuck out very nicely. That combined with the weather should be a nice opportunity for an under in this rivalry matchup.

**Smutbucket** · 11-05-21, 11:44 AM

Week 9 Results: 8-4 (+3.73 units)
Season YTD: 52-33 (+17.61 units)

Week 10:
Utah -9 (-108)
Wake Forest +2.5 (-103)
Ole Miss -9.5 (-105)
Aub/TexAM under 50 (-105)
Penn State -10 (-105)
NC State -2.5 (-115)
Iowa -12 (-108)
Kentucky +1 (-109)

Week 10:

Utah -9 (-108) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Utah has been great this season since Rising took over like I mentioned in my last write-up in week 8 where we took them (where they let us down and were outscored 10-28 in 2nd half) He has opened up their run game as he’s a great passer who can also run periodically as he’s the 2nd leading rusher on the team and averaging 7.89 yards per carry the handful of times he does take off during the games - usually in broken down plays. The offensive line has really improved, last week not giving up a sack and rushing for 290 total yards on 44 carries averaging 6.59 yards per carry against UCLA who had one of the best rush defenses in the PAC 12 (ok not saying much). Unlike UCLA, Stanford has one of the WORST rush defenses in the league, let alone the PAC 12. The mismatch at the line of scrimmage is quite evident, with Utah’s offensive line outranking Stanford by an average of 85 ranks! Utah really does their damage on standard downs, ranking 2nd in the league - a place where the Stanford defensive line is horrible ranking 125th. In situations when Utah needs 4 yards on the ground, they get the job done ranking 8th in opportunity rate - a place where Stanford’s defense almost ALWAYS gives up yards for first down with a 128th ranked opportunity rate. Stanford’s offensive line has been struggling too ranking in the bottom 10% of almost all line categories and although Utah’s defensive line hasn't been great - they still outrank Stanford's poor offensive line by an average of 40 ranks across all categories. They are averaging 3.34 yards per carry and were held to under 75 yards in 5 of their 8 games. They also struggle in pass protection, ranking 99th in sack%, an area where this Utah defense has been above average ranking #39th in the nation. Stanford is really banged up, and their best player on offense and starting QB, Tanner McKee, may even sit out and will be playing through injury if he does suit up. The WR corps has a number of questionable leading guys who have been sitting out the last few games and will most likely be in this game too. Utah has also been the much more disciplined team ranking #14th in penalties per play where Stanford ranks #88th. If you look at common opponents, Utah has beat every common opponent by double digits and Stanford has lost to 3 out of 4 of their common opponents (two by double digits). Utah is definitely a first half team so I would consider taking the 1st half line (PickMonitor doesn’t offer) and team total over if you're really looking for action this Friday Night! I got this at -7 (-125) at my bookie as my first play of the week, but sadly I didn’t lock into pickmonitor as I couldn't buy the half so I wanted to see and look now at 9 but I still love based off the numbers provided above.

Wake Forest +2.5 (-103) Risking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Ahhh you know I love my Wake and I’m pissed I backed UNC last week AND this has very trappish vibes with Wake Forest being undefeated and UNC at 4-4 but the market to bet UNC every week is way more saturated then Wake Forest the last few years so we’ll chalk up the value we're getting to that. Here’s the numbers to show the wrong team is favored: UNC defense has been piss poor, in every category possible and this EXPLOSIVE wake offense outranks UNC’s defense by an average of 81 ranks across all positional matchups for PFF categories!! Hartman ranks 7th in passing and their WR’s have been even better ranking 3rd and they should torch UNC who rank 87th. Wake’s defense isn’t the greatest but ranks far better at 25th according to PFF then 97th for UNC. Wake also tackles better ranking 28th, unlike UNC who ranks 88th. Wake also has a strong advantage in the red zone on both sides of the ball as that has been an area that UNC struggles ranking 57th on defense and 61st on offense in red zone scoring %. This will most likely be a shootout, and I love how we also have the much better kicker (who has hit 91% of his kicks) - opposed to UNC who has only hit 66% of his kicks. And we are the much more disciplined team ranking #22nd in penalties per play opposed to #102nd in penalties per play. I’ll take these types of numbers all day with the smaller undefeated school although the weaker schedule of Wake definitely plays a role but I think we win this matchup more often than not.

Ole Miss -9.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
You can crunch numbers all day in this matchup but at the end of the day, you’d be comparing apples to oranges as these strength of schedule mismatches are rare but great to get behind. Naturally, Ole Miss is an SEC power 5 team with an SOS ranking 14th in the nation. Liberty, an independent, has faced NOBODY! Their most difficult opponent would be Syracuse in which they lost 24-21. Their sagarin strength of schedule is 136th! Even with such an easy schedule, Malik Willis has been running for his life as they are ranked 123rd in sack% giving up sacks on 11.8% of their passes. Sack% is the ONE area this Rebel defense excels ranking #15th in the nation. Liberty's numbers are inflated as hell from their weak schedule and I’ve already talked about Ole Miss a lot, so short write-up here but should be an easy cash. Also playing in our favor is how under-valeud Liberty has been in the market the last two years, going 9-2 ATS last year and this year they are 6-3 ATS so far this year but I think they’re being over-valued in this spot due to that.

Aub/TexAM under 50 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Another SEC under? Oh ya! Texas A&M offense has seen some life lately but that’s been against some of the worst defenses in the league with Missouri, South Carolina, and Alabama (ha! Fook bama) They have yet to see a front like Auburn’s who held Ole Miss, one of the most efficient offenses in the league - to 20 points. Although you won’t see the mismatch in sack%, we see a big mismatch in the PFF ranks for this Auburn defensive line as they rank 24th in the pass rush, a place that Texas AM has struggled ranking 88th in pass blocking (PFF accounts for pressure and not just sacks). Auburn’s defense ranks 14th overall, 21st in coverage, 17th against the run, and 19th in tackling - solid across the board with no weaknesses. Texas A&M’s defense has been really good where it counts, in the red zone ranking #16th and on 3rd down, ranking #22nd. They’ve held opponents to 4.6 yards per play (ranking 11th) and let’s expect to see the crappy “MR. HYDE” side of Bo Nix’s inconsistent play that typically shows himself against tougher defenses and this Texas AM is one of them. They can bring pressure (which Nix hates) ranking 28th in sack%, but their secondary is one of the best in the league only allowing 5.9 yards per pass, with a passing efficiency defense of ranking 14th. Both defenses are in the Top 25 of TFLs per game, with Auburn ranking 4th and a place where this Texas AM offense has struggled ranking 70th in TFL allowed per game. Both defenses are in the Top 25 of long scrimmage plays allowed over 30+ yards. Both defenses are in Top 25 of tackling. 3 out of the 4 last times these two teams faced off it went OVER the total (one push) but I like our chances here with the under.

Penn State -10 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I wouldn’t want to be in Penn State’s way after 3 straight losses with Franklin, one of the better coaches in the league on the hot seat. On the other side we have Mike Locksley, who I have rated as one of the LOWEST head coaches in the league, how is this man still a head coach? His head coaching record all time is 13-46 and 5 of those wins came this year against SH!T teams. He spent 3 years as one of Saban’s many assistants (not even an important one) and Maryland decided to bring him back to lead this team where he went 5-12 the first two years. Penn State’s offensive line has really struggled as they have only mustered up 3.4 yards per carry on the season, and rank in the bottom 10% of most line yards categories. But they should finally get some push against a Maryland defensive line that ranks in the bottom 15% of line yard categories (except sack%). If they can’t get it on the ground, they’ll get some yards through the air as Maryland ranks 76th in defensive passing efficiency, 107th in yards per pass, and 105th according to PFF. Maryland’s defense has given up a ton of big plays ranking #117th in long scrimmage plays over 30 yards allowed - a place where Penn State doesn’t give up ranking #16th on defense. Maryland’s offense has struggled to stay out of the back field as they rank 97th in TFL allowed per game, a place where Penn State’s defense ranks 51st in TFL’s. Maryland’s offense lost 2 of its best WR’s recently and they will be tested against a tough Penn State defense. We should win the turnover battle as well - as Maryland has been averaging giving away 2 per game and Penn State’s defense averages two takeaways per game. We also have a strong special teams advantage as Penn State ranks 14th and MAryland ranks 92nd. I think this number is a bit low after Penn State’s 3 game skid but they should right this ship in this matchup against this soft Maryland team.

NC State -2.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Biting on the trap where the bookies open at 4 and dropped to 2.5 in classic fashion. NC State has been the much more consistent team, especially on defense where they rank 12th overall. Their biggest strength is their defensive line who ranks 3rd in rush defense and held the dual threat QB Malik Cunningham to only 76 yards on the ground last week and completed only 40% of his passes for 219 yards. Defensive line yards stats show they average a 12th ranking across all line stats (omitting their 88th sack ranking - as talking strictly run def). FSU needs to establish their run game as there's a huge discrepancy in their yards per rush in games they won and games they lost (last week they were only able to get 1.91 yards per carry against the Clemson front). FSU’s run defense started off the season with amazing numbers, but they have quickly regressed since losing starting DT, Briggs Jr for the season allowing 5.2 yards per carry in their last 4 games. NC State is very well rounded on offense, ranking 30th overall, 21st in passing, 55th in receiving and 60th in rushing (run rank + run block rank / 2) according to PFF. They DO NOT make mistakes as they rank 1st in giveaways per game in the league, unlike FSU who averages 2 giveaways per game! I think we see the bad-side of FSU come back out against this ACC rival who beat them up by 16 points last year and have been historically under-valued in this matchup as NC State has covered 16 times since 2000 with only 3 ATS losses and one push. (All the 90’s squares are still betting FSU?)

Iowa -12 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Last year Iowa was up 17-0 at halftime before losing 21-20 to Northwestern, but these are two very different teams as Northwestern had 11 guys invited to NFL camps in the summer leaving them with one of the most in-experienced teams for 2021, and it’s showing in their stats. Iowa's offense that has been struggling the last two games should build some momentum against a Northwestern defense that has been GOD awful (lost a long time defensive coordinator remember). They have allowed 5.8 yards per rush (ranking #122nd), allowed 47% of 3rd downs (ranking #120th), rank 90th overall in PFF and 81st in tackling. They’ve also had a SIGNIFICANTLY easier road then Iowa to date as Iowa has had the 16th hardest SOS according to Sagarin where Northwestern’s ranks 58th. Iowa’s defense has been great despite the tough schedule. I've talked about them a lot already and have been cashing them unders but this one may just sneak over the low set total of 40 as I don’t see Northwestern defense stopping Iowa. Their secondary should feast against Northwestern’s 3rd string QB (first two got benched, they sucked so much but who knows for sure who we’ll see). Iowa’s offensive numbers aren’t the best but what do you expect having to face Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa State and Colorado State’s (NEW POWERHOUSE) defenses. PFF shows strong advantages in every facet of the game for Iowa, except in pass blocking where Iowa has struggled protecting Petras, ranking #111th, but that’s not an area where Northwestern has been good at ranking 96th in pass rushing so let’s take all these points!

Kentucky +1 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
So the bookies set two trap lines the last two weeks with Kentucky and I leaned them and considered taking them strongly, but laid off taking them for the better and now the bookies are setting another?! Nah, this is obviously a fake trap line based on the numbers ;-). Let’s start with PFF where Kentucky’s offense outranks Tenn’s defense by an average of 25 rank across all positional matchups. On defense, Kentucky has the bigger mismatch as they outrank Tenn by an average of 40 ranks. Their secondary has struggled as of lately and dropped to 49th overall in PFF but that’s not a particular place this Tennessee offense can expose as they rank 59th in passing and 109th in receiving. We have a huge mismatch in tackling as Kentucky ranks 22nd and Tennessee, per usual, ranks 110th in tackling. Also in special teams as Tennessee ranks 126th, even making the 72nd ranked Kentucky special teams look good. Tennessee heavily relies on their running ability but Kentucky can stuff the run with the best ranking #17th ib yards per rush allowed. Their corners can easily match up with Tennessee's and stack the box against their run game. Tennessee will be forced to obvious throwing situations where they struggle at protecting their QB ranking #125th in sack %. Tennessee's rush defense has struggled against the tougher competition giving up over 200 yards to Ole Miss, Alabama, and UF - a place where Kentucky’s offense is just as good, ranking 24th in yards per rush at 5.2 ypc. Kentucky is also the much more disciplined team ranking 15th in penalties per play opposed to Tennessee that ranks #74th. Give me this in a pick-em all day and so be it if we lose.

**Smutbucket** · 11-06-21, 09:33 AM

DAPPER DAN PICKS:
SEASON YTD: 53-33 (+18.61 UNITS)

Good luck all - tough card, I leaned a bunch of big favs but laid off a few.

Week 10 adds:
Mia/Gtech over 63 (-105)
Oregon State -11.5 (-105)
Florida -20.5 (-105)

Mia/Gtech over 63 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Both offenses have made changes at QB that have shown some life to their teams. Sims lost his job in the first game but took over the starting role in their big upset win over UNC. Same thing with Miami as King started but got injured and Van Dyke took over the starting role where he has been great - even against a tough Pitt defense last week he completed 76% of his passes for 10.1 yards. He’s completing 63% on the season for 9.2 yards. Miami has yet to face a true running QB this season and Sims can beat you with his legs and he’s the 2nd leading rusher on the team averaging 6.42 yards per carry. The PFF ranks show the BIG reasons to take the over in this matchup. Across all positional matchups, both offenses outrank their defensive counterparts by an average of 46 ranks. Gtech prefers to run and that’s been a bigger weakness of Miami who ranks 104th in PFF rush defense. Miami prefers to throw which is the biggest weakness of this Gtech defense who ranks #115th in PFF coverage and 118th in defensive passing efficiency. (Miami ranks 81st in defensive passing efficiency) Neither team is good in the pass rush so both QBs should have plenty of time. Both defenses suck at tackling with Miami ranking 129th and Gtech 67. Both special teams are terrible with Miami's ranking 112th and Gtech 96th, which should lead to some good field position for both teams. FEI shows advantages to both offenses as well - just not as significantly. Miami is one of the fastest offenses in the nation with only a 45% TOP % yet ranked #18 in plays per game. They haven’t been able to run so they throw 55% of the time, which should stop the clock a lot. Both defenses are bad on 3rd down and in the red zone. Miami gives up a ton of penalties, and they are the favorite so lets hope some of those penalties extend Gtech’s drives. Both defenses are in the bottom half of the league of big plays over 30+ yards allowed and both offenses are in the top half. Both defenses are terrible at breaking up passes and Gtech ranks 128th in total passes defended per game and Miami ranks 91st. TAKE THE OVER~!

Oregon State -11.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
As if the numbers weren't mismatched enough already for this game, starting LB, leading tackler, captain of (BAD) defense - Nate Landman will most likely be sitting out as he is hampered by an injury and doesn’t want to risk his NFL aspirations. This game should be dominated in the trenches as the numbers dictate - showing the Beavers with a HUGE advantage given the fact they are quietly performing as the best offensive line in the league, according to Footballoutsiders line yards - they rank 1st in line yard, 1 in stuff ranking, 2nd in opportunity rate, and 3rd in power rankings. A monumental mismatch on paper for a Colorado defense who ranks 93rd in line yards, 51st in stuff ranking, 80th in power rank, and 65 in opportunity rank. Colorado’s offensive line is also outranked by Oregon state’s defensive line by an average of 20 ranks (75 ranks on offense) across all categories. The Beavs average 5.7 yards per carry ranking 4th and should run for 300 yards against Colorado who allows 5.3 yards per rush allowed. (ranked #115th). PFF shows Oregon State’s offense outmatching Colorado in every category by an average of 70 ranks. Oregon State’s defense, a bit too as they outrank in every category their offensive counterpart does as well just by a little less average of 20 ranks. Even as bad as Colorado’s stats are, most of them were in blowouts where they faced 3rd stringers, don’t go judging the bad stats, badly enough. Oregon State should win big and the bookies are still counting their dollars from last week's Oregon State trap (where we had Cal) so they maybe set a low line in this one. This one scared me as the line seems “trappy” and my “trap specialist” consultant “Darren Dimes” agrees….but after hearing about Landman being out - I had to go ahead and pull the trigger.

Florida -20.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I usually don’t even look at games with 2 TDs spread but this is another HUGE fav this week that stuck out like a sore thumb. South Carolina will most likely be on the 3rd string QB as Luke Doty started the season, got hurt, then Zeb Noland came in and is banged up so that leaves a little experienced Jason Brown. Even if it was Doty who led the team for most of the year, the stat mismatches are heavily skewed towards UF. This is another huge line of scrimmage mismatch as UF is Top 20 in almost every line category as Emory is a running QB and they’ve been averaging 6.1 yards per carry! (ranked 2nd). This is another devastating mismatch on paper as that is the biggest weakness of South Carolina’s team who ranks 126th in line yards, 111th in opportunity rate, 130th in power ranking and 129th in stuff ranking. Omitting the sack rank - that means UF O-Line outranks the Gamecocks D-Line by an average of 102 ranks! Biggest mismatch of the weak and more so then Utah last night over Stanford. Despite both being the SEC, UF has had the much harder schedule to go along with their better stats as they've had the 8th hardest sagarin strength of schedule and South Carolina 54th. Even though this UF defense is pretty terrible, against 3rd stringer, I’m sure they will be pinning their ears back and bringing pressure as they rank 12th in pass rushing according to PFF - a place where South Carolina has struggled all season ranking 116th in PFF pass blocking. There’s also a pretty significant advantage according FEI on both sides of the ball is UF defense outranks South Carolina’s offense by an average of 85 ranks across all categories (still can’t figure out why UF is ranked so high in FEI ranks - lol) Hopefully all these big favorites cover this week, and it’s not typical of what I like to bet. (I actually leaned a few more but laid off)

**Smutbucket** · 11-12-21, 11:37 AM

DAPPER DAN PICKS:
WEEK 10: 5-6 (-1.33 UNITS)
SEASON YTD: 57-39 (+17.31 UNITS)

Sorry fellas, write-ups will be short and won’t be a big card this week as my brother is getting married tonight and slammed at work too so, this what we got so far….will add a few more tmrw morning possibly but FIRE AWAY ON THESE BABIES!

Week 11:
Michigan ML (+102) 2x
Baylor +6 (-105)
Minnesota/Iowa Under 37 (-102)
Boston College ML (+108)
Ohio State -20.5 (-107)
Notre Dame -5 (-105)
Ole Miss +2.5 (-105)

Michigan ML (+102) Risking 2 units to win 2.04 units
First two unit bet of the season and I love it. Been doing 1.5x units all season for my best bets but they’ve been hitting at a high rate so I’m upping to two units like years past. First off the eye test, I watch the BIG 10 a lot and what you see from Cade McNamara is a huge plus over Sean Clifford leading the other side. Clifford can’t handle pressure or pick up yards with his legs. Cade thrives under pressure with the 3rd lowest sack % in the league and buys time well with his legs for his receivers to get open. Penn State’s defensive line has been solid this year, but they haven’t faced an offensive line like Michigan who ranks 35th across all line categories - and have averaged 5.3 yards per carry ranking 16th in the nation. Although Penn State’s defensive yards per carry allowed has been good on the season - their rush defense ranks 94th in PFF so Michigan should be able to run at will. Penn State’s offense has really been struggling lately - especially on the ground - where they have averaged 2.06 yards per carry in their last 3 games and 3.3 yards per carry on the season. Their struggles should continue against a Michigan defensive line that ranks in the top 15 in every line yard category - and outrank Penn State’s offensive line by an average of 67.5 ranks in rushing line yard categories. FEI shows huge advantages for Michigan on the defensive side of the ball as they outrank Penn State’s offense by an average of 77 ranks across all FEI efficiency categories. Michigan’s defense should stop the run and get some pressure as they are a well rounded defense that ranks 3rd overall according to PFF, and 3rd in pass rush - a place where Penn State's offensive line has struggled ranking 50th in pass blocking. Penn State has won the last two years in this BIG 10 rivalry matchup but it's finally time for revenge as Michigan has the better team this season!

Baylor +6 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I’ve talked about these two teams a lot in past write-ups and this is just too many points for these soft BIG 12 defenses. I think Bohanon will be too tough for Oklahoma’s soft defense to contain and Baylor might even pull off the upset here but very safe with this many points.

Boston College ML (+108) Risking 1 unit to win 1.08 units
Jurkovec is back, baby! Good time to bet on Boston College and I was able to sneak them in live last week as those sneaky bastards waited until a few minutes before game time last week before officially announcing. Even though Boston College has been playing crippled on offense for the last 6 weeks with him out, the stats still show strong advantages to Boston College on both sides of the ball (some trap vibes though). In PFF, Boston College’s offense outranks G. Tech’s defense positional matchups by an average of 70 ranks. For G. Tech’s offense, if you omit the pass rush ranks as BC doesn’t like to bring pressure, then Boston College’s defense outranks Gtech by 46 ranks across all positional matchups. We have strong mismatches in tackling and special teams as well as Boston College is solid in both ranking 6th in tackling and 6th in special teams - where Gtech ranks 81st in tackling and 112th in special teams. Jurkovec should put up some big numbers against a Gtech passing defense that ranks 123rd defensive passing efficiency - another mismatch as BC’s passing efficiency defense ranks 21st in the league. Last year, Boston College dominated Georgia Tech at the line of scrimmage - average 6 yards per carry and only allowing G. Tech to run for 3.2 yards per carry - and won by 21 points. Worst case this is a close game but I think Boston College should win without issue. I actually was able to buy to +3 (-130) on one of my bookies and it is worth it if you can shop around and find.

Minnesota/Iowa Under 37 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Another nice BIG 10 under on paper. Both teams love to chew clock and run the ball. Especially this week for Iowa as Petras is out and back-up Padilla will be starting. Minnesota ranks 5th in TOP% at 58%, yet ranks 102nd with only 67 plays per game - an insane stat. I’ve talked about this Iowa defense a lot - both of these teams have strong defenses and FEI stats agree as Iowa’s defense outranks Minnesota’s offense by an average of 54 ranks across all categories and Minnesota’s defense outranks Iowa’s offense by an even bigger average of 71 ranks! The defensive line’s show the same mismatches. Sorry another short writeup but feel very good about despite the very low number - just like our wiscy/iowa matchup - even with multiple turnovers inside the redzone I think we still win this pretty easily.

Ohio State -20.5 (-107) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Ohio State should smash the upset specialists Purdue if you look at this game on paper and I think the oddsmakers agree with the high line even though Purdue has kept it close with the best teams in the Big 10 so far. Purdue has struggled with teams that out-match them at the line of scrimmage (like Wisconsin and Notre Dame), and Ohio State’s mismatch is tremendous on both sides of the ball. Purdue throws 60% of the time as they have been able to do nothing on the ground, averaging 2.5 yards per carry. Ohio State’s defensive line has only allowed 3 yards per carry on the season and outrank Purdue’s poor offensive line by an average of 80 ranks across all line yard categories. On the other side Ohio State’s offensive line has been stellar - averaging 5.3 yards per carry and are 6th in line yards, 18th in opportunity rate, 30th in power ranking and 2nd in stuff ranking. A big mismatch on paper as they outrank Purdue’s defensive line by an average of 44 ranks across all categories. Once Ohio State stuff’s Purdue’s run game they can pin back their ears and bring a strong pass rush which they’ve been great at all season - ranking 7th in PFF. This will cause issues for Aiden O’Connell who’s offensive line ranks 55th in pass blocking. Overall, according to PFF, Ohio State ranks 1st in the nation and Purdue’s defense ranks 100th so I see no reason why the Buckeyes can’t beat them by more than 3 TD’s considering all the mismatches on paper but you never know betting football! I like our odds here!

Notre Dame -5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Betting against my beloved Virginia team here as this should be an easy win for Notre Dame. First off UVA’s defense is an absolute joke as we have all seen and rank in the bottom 10% of almost every measurable stat category possible. To make things worse, Brennan Armstrong is banged up and left last game and so is their leading rusher and important piece for pass protection - Wayne Taulapapa. The last time Taulapapa didn’t play their offense gave up 6 sacks and only scored 17 points against Wake Forest. Unlike UVA - Notre Dame’s defense has been great all around according to PFF, ranking 15th overall, 31st in coverage, 16th in rush defense, and 4th in tackling. Notre Dame’s offense has been struggling getting yards on the ground, only averaging 3.7 yards per carry on the season, but expect that to change against this Virginia defense that has been allowing a league worst 6.1 yards per carry. Notre Dame’s offensive line has also struggled at giving time for Jack Coan, ranking 107th in sack% this season, but again another issue that shouldn’t show in this game against a UVA defense that ranks 123rd in sack %. Hopefully Brennan and Taulapapa don’t play but regardless I think Notre Dame covers easily.

Ole Miss +2.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
No writeup - sorry. Follow SEC closely and have watched and bet on these two teams frequently. Buy to 3 if you can.

**Smutbucket** · 11-13-21, 10:47 AM

DAPPER DAN PICKS:
WEEK 10: 5-6 (-1.33 UNITS)
SEASON YTD: 57-39 (+17.31 UNITS)

Only two adds no write-ups sorry. Family weekend in north carolina
‘
Week 11 Adds:
CSU/Air Force Under 45 (-105)
Arkansas -2.5 (-110)

**freddues** · 11-19-21, 07:50 AM

Congratulations Mr.Dan on the most intuitive and insightful analysis on the NCAA board. It is a read I look forward to every week to compare thoughts. Thank you for sharing your time and expertise.

**Smutbucket** · 11-20-21, 10:03 AM

Thanks for the kind words Freddues! I've done this for over a decade now and have realized the only way to win is put lots of time and effort into studying the numbers and I think I have finally figured out a good efficent way analyze them as about half way through last season I was struggling which helped me create this new method and I've been pouring it all out into my writeups in hopes some will follow --

ON TO THIS WEEK!

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 11: 7-2 (+5.93 units)
Season YTD: 64-41 (+23.24 units) (61%)

Week 12:
FSU +2 (-105)
Michigan State +19 (-105)
Wake Forest +4.5 (-105)
Marshall -14.5 (-105)
UAB/UTSA under 53.5 (-105)
Minnesota -7.5 (+100)
UCLA -3 (-115)
Kansas/TCU over 64.5 (-102)
California ML (-125) 1.5x
Colorado State ML (-135)

Week 12:
FSU +2 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Great spot to take FSU here as their team strengths match up well against Boston College. Boston College has been getting gashed on the ground lately dropping from their #17th ranked PFF rush defense to 47th now in a month and haven given up 999 yards (voodoo) on 168 carries giving up an average of almost 6 yards per carry to opponents over the last 4 games. The one strength of this FSU team is their rushing attack as Jordan Travis is a true dual threat QB and the team has been averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Their offense has been consistently scoring in the red zone, ranking 1st in the ACC and 18th in the country with a 71.4 Red Zone touchdown percentage. They’ve converted points on 25 straight red zone trips and that’s the 3rd longest streak in the nation. On defense, their biggest strength is what Boston College relies on - their run game. FSU’s rush defense ranks 11th in PFF and their defensive line outranks BC’s offensive line in every line yard category and by an average of 22 ranks. They will have to throw the ball and Jurkovec doesn’t have the best arm and throws a lot of ducks from what I’ve seen so far since he’s returned from injury. After losing 4 straight to start the season, Norvell has really turned around this FSU program winning 4 of the last 6 and losing only to Clemson and NC state. In the month of October, the FSU defense held opponents to 6 of 12 red zone conversions - ranking 2nd in the nation in defensive red zone stop rates. FSU has also had the much harder schedule according to sagarin as FSU ranks 25th in SOS where BC ranks 76th. I was born to hate the Seminoles but I still see value in betting them this game.

Michigan State +19 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Come on bookies, are you really going to undervalue this Michigan state team all year to the tune of 7-2 ATS already? This is just too many points as on paper both of these teams are pretty equally matched with both offenses outranking their defensive counterparts by 20 ranksl. Ohio State’s secondary is much weaker, ranking 70th in the nation and they will be facing a well rounded offense that ranks 32nd in passing, 12th in receiving, 22nd in rushing and 22nd in run blocking. Rarely in PFF do you ever see a team with a good run offense and good run blocking offense (usually one is high and one is low) but these are equally excellent with the lucky number 2’s! Although Ohio State's defense ranks high in most stat categories for yards per play- their defense has struggled on 3rd down, ranking 92nd in 3rd down conv %. Their offense that is accustomed to averaging 6 yards per carry shouldn't get that much push against a Michigan State front that has only allowed 3.3 yards per carry on the season against all opponents. I think this will be a close one even though Ohio State has won and covered the last 4 years in this matchup but this year Mel Tucker (the defensive guru) and his staff show this Buckeyes team this program is back. Their offensive coordinator, Jay Johnson, is already nominated for the Broyles award this season as explosive as this offense has been.

Wake Forest +4.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Clemson has done nothing impressive on offense to think they can keep up with Wake here. According to FEI ranks, Clemson’s offense ranks 102nd across all categories and #111th in yards per play - a huge difference from Wake Forest who averages 14th across all FEI categories and 21st in yards per play. Clemson’s offense will sputter enough on their own to not be able to keep pace with wake. Clemson’s defense is stellar per usual but they have yet to face a team as explosive as Wake’s who ranks 5th in passing. 6th in receiving and 7th in overall offense. Clemson’s disruptive pass rush shouldn’t affect veteran Hartman who has seen this Clemson defense a few times now and will be looking for revenge. This is the year to do it as Clemson clearly hasn't found the right QB to lead their team and Hartman has 4 years of starting experience under his belt. PFF ranks actually show mismatches on BOTH sides of the ball for Wake as their offense outranks Clemson’s defense by an average of 25 ranks across all positional categories and an average of 28 ranks against Clemson's offense. Wake has been excellent at protecting the ball this season and making plays on defense as they have a +1 turnover margin ranking 5th in the nation, an area where Clemson has struggled this season ranking 73rd in turnover margin. Wake is also much more disciplined ranking 34th opposed to Clemson’s 79th in penalties per play. Clemson has literally smashed the hell out of Wake for the last decade, without even having a spread less than 20 points! +4.5 was the largest possible number the bookies could give to Wake considering this market fact but this year won’t be like the others. Was strongly considering making this a 1.5x unit bet or sprinkling on moneyline but a lot of cappers I respect are liking Clemson so just the one unit! ARGH!

Marshall -14.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Of course buy this to 14 if you can - I’m just dealing with the woes of tracking on a site you can’t buy points all season but this looks like a blowout on paper regardless as Marshall lights up big in all 3 categories I focus - PFF ranks, offensive/defensive line, and FEI ranks. In the PFF this mismatch is the biggest as Marshall outranks terrible defensive positional counterparts by an average of 77 ranks as Charlotte's defense ranks 127th in overall defense. Marshall’s defense outranks Charlotte's offense too by an average of 37 ranks across all positional categories and the tackling mismatch is huge as Marshall ranks 36th in tackling and Charlotte ranks 126th. Teams that can’t tackle always get blown badly and Charlotte is susceptible to the big play as they rank 120th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards allowed. Marshall’s offensive line outranks the Charlotte defensive line by 48 ranks. FEI shows Marshall should put up big numbers as they outrank across all categories by an average of 56 ranks. Marshall’s defense is actually in Top 25 of almost all FEI categories so Charlotte’s lower ranked offense will struggle. Marshall’s defense also ranks 6th in red zone scoring % allowed where Charlotte’s offense struggles ranking 106th. This is an important game for Marshall in the conference as they stand one game behind WKU and still get to play them. Charlotte has loss 3 of the last 4 and after a rough start for Marshall, their team is meshing and has won 4 of the last 5 with only losing to UAB in a close one last week. No one has been betting Marshall on the road as they are 6-1 ATS in last 7 road games. Charlotte is the much worse team and Marshall should run away with this.

UAB/UTSA under 53.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I usually don’t like to bet these crap teams that I haven’t ever watched any games for but my sharp buddy, 2dabank, pointed out this total and after looking at the numbers, it has strong implications of an under-brewing. First off both teams prefer to run, with UAB running 60% of the time, the clock probably won’t stop moving. But the biggest strength of both of these teams is their run defense as UTSA has only given up 2.7 yards per carry on the season (ranking 4th) and UAB has only given up 3.1 ypc (ranking 10th). The defensive line mismatch on both sides of the ball agree that both teams should struggle to run with UTSA outranking UAB’s offensive line by an average of 41 ranks across all categories and UAB outranking UTSA’s offensive line by an average of 23 ranks across all categories. UAB should really struggle in their passing game as they rank 124th in sack % and UTSA ranks 24th in sack%. Without being able to run the ball they should be in long down and distance 3rd downs where the pass rush can really bring some pressure on them like they have all season. Both teams defenses have been doing well in the red zone and 3rd’s downs where UTSA ranks 7th in red scoring % and #29th in 3rd down conversion %. UAB will milk the clock themselves as their TOP% is ranked 27th in the nation yet rank 125th in plays per game. These two shit teams are familiar with each other as they played the last 4 years and the Under is 2-1-1 and I think we got another under in this matchup and one you probably shouldn’t watch - ha.

Minnesota -7.5 (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 unit
Buy this to 7….Ugh….don’t think it matters but lot’s of reasons to love Minnesota here. Indiana will most likely be on the third string walk on QB as Penix went down for the season and Tuttle is questionable, but even if he does play this team is a dumpster fire on both sides of the ball right now. Indiana’s defensive numbers started off with great numbers on the season but have quickly dropped as they’ve been stuck on the field most of the game with an inept offense. Minnesota loves controlling the clock and moving the chains slowly with a TOP% of 59% ranking 4th in the nation. Minnesota should run the ball well as they outrank Indiana’s defensive line by an average of 32 ranks across all categories. Minnesota's struggles on offense has been in pass protection but that’s not a strength of this Indiana defense who ranks 117th in sack rank. Indiana has been sloppy with the ball, averaging 2 giveaways per game so we should win the turnover battle as Fleck’s squad only averages 1 per game. Minnesota’s play calling has been great in the red zone, scoring on 90.91 % of red zone opportunities. A place where Indiana’s defense struggles, and coincidentally have allowed opponents to score on exactly 90.91% in red zone scoring % (more weird voodoo). If you omit the Maryland game (such a bad team), in the last 6 games this Indiana offense has averaged 6.5 points per game. This Minnesota defense is more than capable of stopping them by outranking them by 47 ranks across all categories in FEI. PFF also shows Minnesota defense should stuff them up as they outrank Indiana’s offense by an average of 31 ranks across all positional matchups. Despite losing their last two against two very good defenses, I think Minnesota wins this one by a lot more than one TD.

UCLA -3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
I loved this play before looking at the injury report and USC has a TON with a total of 22 listed including starting QB, Kedon Slovis. UCLA should run all over this USC defense that has been horrible against the run, ranking 84th in PFF and allowing 4.7 yards per carry (ranked 98th). The offensive/defensive line mismatch is HUGE with UCLA’s offensive line outranking USC’s defensive line by an average of 65 ranks and they have really done their damage on standard downs ranking 11th in the nation a place where USC has really struggled ranking 102nd in standard downs (classic mismatch we look for on 1st and 2nd down - we’ve been eating these up all season) FEI numbers agree that UCLA should put up 35+ as they outrank USC defensive by the FEI categories by an average of 60 ranks too. USC has won and covered the last two years in this matchup giving us extra value but I think UCLA pulls out the easy win here. Short and sweet writeup here!

Kansas/TCU over 64.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Put a number as high as you want as this one as although TCU played inspired last week and upsetting Oklahoma State - I think we see a return to the standard of the shit defense that has plagued TCU this year. Kansas has seen some life on offense with new starting QB, Jalon Daniels who shedded his redshirt to play for Kansas in its final few games. They put up 57 in a huge upset for themselves last week. Both teams defenses are in the bottom of almost all positional categories - including tackling where Kansas ranks 100th and TCU ranks 123rd. Mis-tackles are a fun thing to watch when you’re betting an over. TCU has still been great on the ground and that’s the biggest weakness of this Kansas defense and their defensive line is outranked by TCU’s offensive line by an average of 60 ranks. The FEI numbers show strong advantages to both offenses as Kansas outranks by an average of 33 ranks (with most of those numbers coming from a diff offensive QB) and TCU’s offense outranking by an average of 33 ranks across all categories. Both defenses have given up a ton of big plays, over 40+ yards Kansas ranks 88th and TCU and even worse 129th. Both defenses are terrible on 3rd down ranking 124th and 130th. Both defenses are terrible in the red zone, ranking 103rd and 127th. This should be another BIG 12 shootout that may be overlooked by most.

California ML (-125) Risking 1.88 units to win 1.5x units
My favorite most dangerous play of the week due to COVID regulation you never know what to expect out of these California teams as Cal had 2 dozen players sit out last week which led to their loss against Arizona. I expect them to come out firing (and pissed off) after being forced to sit due to over-reaching HIPPY (ironic) regulations. The one thing Cal offense can do really well is run the ball ranking 7th in line yards, 10th in opportunity rate, 29th in power ranking and 15th in stuff ranking. A tremendous mismatch on paper where you may remember Stanford last primetime game where their defensive line left holes so big they broke all kinds of records and averaged almost 10 yards per carry, lol. Stanford’s defensive line averages out to 118th across all d-line categories. Cal’s defensive line should also have a mismatch as they outrank Stanfords horrible offensive line by an average of 25 ranks across all line categories. FEI shows the same mismatches as Cal’s offense outranks Stanford defense by an average of 20 ranks and Cal’s defense outranks Stanford’s offense by an average of 43 ranks. Is Tanner McKee back? Who cares? I don’t think this one matters when the other team is averaging 5 yards per carry on you and moving the chains at will. This should be more of the same from a Stanford program that has really fallen off but the market setters have yet to adjust enough, especially against a Cal team coming off an asterisk disappointing loss to the worst team in the PAC 12.

Colorado State ML (-135) Risking 1.35 units to win 1 units
You will rarely ever see me play a late night Hawaii game but I like this one a lot so decided to pull the trigger. Talked a lot about this Colorado State defense already, they are ranked 16th overall in PFF, 13th in pass rush, 22nd in secondary, 41st in run defense, and 28th in tackling. A huge PFF mismatch for Hawaii’s offense that ranks 94th overall. On offense, Although Colorado state hasn’t been great they’ve had a decent passing game which ranks 31s in passing and 45th in receiving - the biggest weakness for this Hawaii defense who’s secondary ranks 108th and overall they rank 81st. According to FEI ranks this Hawaii offense shouldn’t do much as they are outranked by CSU’s defense by an average of 62 ranks across all categories. Colorado State has had a much harder schedule and if you look at the common opponents Colorado State has bested the score margin by an average of 20 points in both games. Colorado State’s defense is great on 3rd down and the red zone - an area where Hawaii’s defense struggles. Colorado State’s defensive line ranks 2nd in qb sack % and Hawaii’s offensive line ranks 100th in sack % so expect lots of disruption in the back field and I think Colorado State wins handedly I just hate Hawaii games, ha.

**Fred The Hammer** · 11-20-21, 10:21 AM

Gl Today! I also enjoy reading your write-ups. Unfortunately you're right about my Hoosiers. Rank us preseason and we'll go 2-10 on you! That'll teach'em!! Sad. I knew Rutgers +7 was a gift but can't bet against them.

I hit South Dakota ML as a dog in Sept vs Col St and won easily. Col State looked so bad that I'm surprised they've become a decent squad. I'm on Wake myself small and might tail you on TCU/KU Over? My big one today though is Michigan. Maryland is horrible in the trenches and gave up almost 500 yds to Sparty last week. I have MI -13.5 and big one on Michigan -7.5 & Over 45.5. Michigan -10.5 & Over 50.5. I feel like its something like 45-17. Tua's bro is good, but he'll be running for his life early and turn it over some

**Smutbucket** · 11-25-21, 12:14 PM

Damn Fred, Im pissed didn't hammer Michigan last week but am on them this week as I like them to cover. This what I got so far:
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 12: 5-5 (-0.02 units)
Season YTD: 69-46 (+23.22 units)

Happy Thanksgiving, there will be some more to eat tmrw! This is my busiest week of the year at work so will try to get all the write-ups in but I got all the numbers done really early in the week to get a head start on all these great Friday games - already a few that stick out and will be spending my day off work crunching the football numbers! Bookies pissed me off with our 3rd "losing week" of the season and this is the last FULL SATURDAY SLATE! DIG IN! This what we got so far.

Week 13:
Miss/Miss State over 62 (-105)
Nebraska +1.5 (-105) 1.5x

Week 13:
Miss/Miss State over 62 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This in-state rivalry has gone under the total the last 4 years, but there’s reason to believe it will go over the total this season. Since the beginning of the season it was no secret that Ole Miss defense had holes and their offense was explosive, the oddsmakers in turn have been setting extremely high totals for them all season, and Ole Miss has gone 3-8 on the over/under. As a result, this line seems a bit low especially when you consider how these two teams operate. Mike Leach and his air raid are still ranking 1st in the league in pass % and both teams rank in the top 10 of plays per game. According to FEI, both offenses have advantages in almost every advanced stat category and by an average of at least 25 ranks between both teams. Both teams are heavily penalized which should extend drives more often then it sets the chains back and if it did set the chains back these offenses have shown more than capable of hitting the big play, especially Ole Miss who ranks 24th in long scrimmage plays over 30+ yards and 23rd in over 40+ yards. Ole Miss is 5th in plays over 10+ yards and Miss State ranks 24th. Ole Miss is biggest strength is their pass rush, which usually isn't an issue with Leach’s air raid as they get the ball out quickly and rank 25th in sack% allowed. Both defenses are in the bottom 3rd of the league in completion % allowed and both QBs started last year against each other and had big games so they know these defenses. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a special teams TD as things always get weird in the Egg Bowl and let’s root for points.

Nebraska +1.5 (-105) Risking 1.57 units to win 1.5 units
My favorite play of the week but I didn’t make 2 units as it’s tough to predict how new starting QB Logan Smothers will look in his starting debut. On HUDL film, he’s extremely quick and can break ankles when he takes off. At the spring game he started off rusty but was making good throws after he warmed up, very quick release and let’s see if he’s the guy to take this Frost team to the next level. Adrian Martinez has been the biggest thorn in Nebraska’s side for the last 4 years so I’m relieved he’s gone as you can’t count on one hand how many games he single handedly lost with a terrible turnover. This Nebraska defense is quietly rising through the ranks of the top defenses in the league, and held Ohio State’s #1 offense to a season low point total of 26 points two weeks ago. According to PFF they rank 23rd in coverage and biggest weakness is their rush defense that ranks 104th in the league. Lucky for them, Iowa has shown no ability to run the ball over the season as they are 105th in the run game according to PFF and have averaged 3.1 yards per rush on the season (ranking 121st). Iowa’s offense ranks in the bottom of most defensive categories including 107th in 3rd conv %, 104th in red zone scoring, 109th in yards per pass and #110th in sack%. Alex Padilla has started the last few games and although he has won all their starts, it’s been against weak teams and he hasnt shown anything impressive completing 39 of 83 passes on the season for an average of 6.3 yards and only 2 TDs and 1 INT. Iowa will rely on their defense like it usually does but Scott Frost is one of the more difficult offenses to plan against, especially with a new mobile weapon leading the team. They were able to put 28 points with Martinez last week against Wisconsin and outgain them with the difference in the game being a special teams TD to open the game, (and a few Martinez INTs of course) Nebraska has also had the much harder schedule as they rank 3rd in SOS ranks and Iowa ranks 40th. You also have a 9-2 team vs a 3-8 team yet the line is a pick-em? Tin-foil hat red flag too. Let’s take the home team in which should be a big upset.

**Renegades** · 11-25-21, 11:27 PM

Mike Leach has been coaching for 35 yrs and he still has no idea how to run his offense vs 3 down lineman and 8 dropping into coverage. Washington shut his teams down every yr with the same defense. Miss did the same thing.