College football betting tips: Stay away from Penn State-Michigan State?
College football betting tips: Stay away from Penn State-Michigan State?
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"You play like you practice," the old coaches' adage goes -- and it's mostly true. To know what's likely to happen on Saturday, you've got to know what's happening in the meeting rooms and on the practice fields during the week.
That's why the college football practice report is here for you every Friday with the inside word on weekly preparations around the country.
We'll check in on depth charts, game plans, personnel and health; unmask practice standouts ready to break out; assess the quality of prep, the mood of the fans and the coaches' message for the week; and let you know who's distracted and who's dialed in. All so that you can make more educated wagers.
Penn State Nittany Lions (-6, 43.5) at Michigan State Spartans
We're looking for spots to fade a Penn State team that has been outgained in four of its seven wins and doesn't have the overall team maturity to maintain a championship performance through the back half of the season.
The Spartans were our pick to win the Big Ten at the beginning of the year, and when we backed them against Ohio State, we knew the team was framing it as a must-win game for the season's goals. That loss showed the cracks in Sparty's armor and set the stage for what could be a total collapse that was just getting started with the blowout loss in Madison.
The experiment that was an in-house offensive overhaul hasn't worked, six players have entered the transfer portal and lingering off-field issues continue to hang over the program. Coach Mark Dantonio is under fire like never before in his career, and a team that has a strong history of circling the wagons for bounce-back performances is struggling to maintain the unity required to do so. The self-destructive tendencies on display in the Ohio State loss finally convinced us of what the Arizona State loss did not: Our preseason read on this team was way off, and it was time to move Sparty from the group of teams we trust with our money to the group we're looking to fade.
This week's wagon-circling task is made tougher by an odd schedule that deals Sparty open dates both before and after the Penn State game. That scheduling makes it easier for the team to check out mentally for three weeks, and we're not bullish on the way some players have handled it. We continue to see signs that there are major internal issues affecting this outfit, and continue to fear that this will be Dantonio's final campaign.
Penn State has a very young team and is battling the complacency that comes with success and a long season, as well as the standard post-big-game energy letdown. We like betting on teams that are likely to show their best effort on Saturday, and right now neither the Spartans nor the Lions fit the bill.
Syracuse Orange at Florida State Seminoles (-10, 59)
Syracuse coach Dino Babers led off his weekly media conference by comparing his team's rash of injuries to a flu bug, then later in the week hinted that the team might be dealing with an actual flu outbreak. The offensive line, hit especially hard by injury, has been overwhelmed with 35 sacks in seven games, including 17 in the past two contests. Quarterback Tommy DeVito is also operating at much less than full health.
Babers has made no secret of his point-spread consciousness, and he's playing the underdog card hard this week. Unlike the time leading up to Syracuse's upsets of Virginia Tech in 2016 or Clemson in 2017, it feels a little forced this week, and Babers doesn't have a team that's ready to internalize his message as well as hungrier previous editions that still thought of themselves as a program on the rise.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies (-10, 50.5)
Mississippi State started strong against LSU before fading to a straight-up and ATS (against the spread) loss. The team's energy and effort were much better, though, and this team has played well enough in spurts for coaches to stay positive, preaching the idea that "we've proven we can do it; now we just need to do it with more consistency." Joe Moorhead and staff are pitching the improvements on display in the loss to LSU as moral victories and this week as the week the team can put it all together. This crew is fragile, and another loss could start a real tailspin, but it hasn't quit on Moorhead just yet. Expect one more spirited effort at Kyle Field.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-9, 50) at Rice Owls
We mentioned last week that Rice had a great open date heading into its road tilt at UTSA. The 0-7 Owls have been competitive in every conference game and continue to sport a good attitude despite the latest setback. It's been another good week for a team that continues to keep its head up and remains hungry for a victory. Southern Miss has better skill personnel and presents a speed mismatch for Rice in places, but this week the Owls appear poised to make fewer self-inflicted mistakes than an Eagles squad that's had a difficult time this week shaking off the tough loss to rival Louisiana Tech.
Missouri Tigers (-10, 45) at Kentucky Wildcats
One team that's bouncing back nicely in practice is Missouri. The Vanderbilt game was no doubt a "wake-up call" type of loss, and it has lit a sense of urgency in this team that we haven't seen this year. The price is high, even against a Kentucky squad that's still operating without a quarterback, but Missouri is coming in with the kind of mindset that you don't want to fade.
South Florida Bulls (-2.5, 51.5) at East Carolina Pirates
One of these 3-4 teams is on the path to becoming a good team; the other is on the way to becoming its next coach's rebuilding project. We've been eyeing the Pirates in this spot, and what they've shown on the practice fields so far has been enough to keep them on the playlist.
We love what Mike Houston is doing at East Carolina, and while this bunch is probably a year away from a winning season and several away from making noise in the AAC race, it's also improving right now. The Pirates have logged back-to-back moral victories (and covers) against Temple and UCF, respectively, and the tangible progress has created a positive vibe around the team's preparations this week.
South Florida fans and media have accepted that the Charlie Strong era is coming to a close. This week of practice has been better than last week's disaster, and the Bulls could see a big boost from the probable return of injured quarterback Jordan McCloud. South Florida is not as tanked as we'd hoped just yet, but neither do we see the heightened sense of urgency that would be the necessary red flag for fading this team. We also like this as a potential second-half spot for ECU, as the Pirates are now the tougher team mentally and have comeback confidence after outscoring UCF 22-6 in the second stanza last Saturday.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Alabama Crimson Tide (-31.5, 55.5)
If Alabama doesn't cover Mac Jones' first start at quarterback, it won't be his fault. Jones played pretty well against Tennessee, and anybody would expect improvement now. Last week, he was thrown into the fire unexpectedly. This week, he has a full week of reps as the starter, plenty of time to prepare mentally, and he has a game plan specifically built for him.
Anybody might also expect that losing a superstar player like Tua Tagovailoa would cause all the other players to realize that they need to pick it up a little bit to make up for such a big personnel loss. But while Jones has locked into the details and had a very good week of practice, the same can't be said for the whole team. This has not been a good practice team all year, and it's still showing the same immaturity and lack of functional depth on defense that we wrote about in the offseason. Last year's defense turned the corner during the open date prior to its game with LSU. Maybe this one can do the same, but it's looking more and more doubtful.
A plan of attacking this defense all year by playing Alabama's opponent, the over and over the opponent's team total would have you at 13-8 in those 21 bets. Keep fading this young defense until it shows better habits.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
"You play like you practice," the old coaches' adage goes -- and it's mostly true. To know what's likely to happen on Saturday, you've got to know what's happening in the meeting rooms and on the practice fields during the week.
That's why the college football practice report is here for you every Friday with the inside word on weekly preparations around the country.
We'll check in on depth charts, game plans, personnel and health; unmask practice standouts ready to break out; assess the quality of prep, the mood of the fans and the coaches' message for the week; and let you know who's distracted and who's dialed in. All so that you can make more educated wagers.
Penn State Nittany Lions (-6, 43.5) at Michigan State Spartans
We're looking for spots to fade a Penn State team that has been outgained in four of its seven wins and doesn't have the overall team maturity to maintain a championship performance through the back half of the season.
The Spartans were our pick to win the Big Ten at the beginning of the year, and when we backed them against Ohio State, we knew the team was framing it as a must-win game for the season's goals. That loss showed the cracks in Sparty's armor and set the stage for what could be a total collapse that was just getting started with the blowout loss in Madison.
The experiment that was an in-house offensive overhaul hasn't worked, six players have entered the transfer portal and lingering off-field issues continue to hang over the program. Coach Mark Dantonio is under fire like never before in his career, and a team that has a strong history of circling the wagons for bounce-back performances is struggling to maintain the unity required to do so. The self-destructive tendencies on display in the Ohio State loss finally convinced us of what the Arizona State loss did not: Our preseason read on this team was way off, and it was time to move Sparty from the group of teams we trust with our money to the group we're looking to fade.
This week's wagon-circling task is made tougher by an odd schedule that deals Sparty open dates both before and after the Penn State game. That scheduling makes it easier for the team to check out mentally for three weeks, and we're not bullish on the way some players have handled it. We continue to see signs that there are major internal issues affecting this outfit, and continue to fear that this will be Dantonio's final campaign.
Penn State has a very young team and is battling the complacency that comes with success and a long season, as well as the standard post-big-game energy letdown. We like betting on teams that are likely to show their best effort on Saturday, and right now neither the Spartans nor the Lions fit the bill.
Syracuse Orange at Florida State Seminoles (-10, 59)
Syracuse coach Dino Babers led off his weekly media conference by comparing his team's rash of injuries to a flu bug, then later in the week hinted that the team might be dealing with an actual flu outbreak. The offensive line, hit especially hard by injury, has been overwhelmed with 35 sacks in seven games, including 17 in the past two contests. Quarterback Tommy DeVito is also operating at much less than full health.
Babers has made no secret of his point-spread consciousness, and he's playing the underdog card hard this week. Unlike the time leading up to Syracuse's upsets of Virginia Tech in 2016 or Clemson in 2017, it feels a little forced this week, and Babers doesn't have a team that's ready to internalize his message as well as hungrier previous editions that still thought of themselves as a program on the rise.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies (-10, 50.5)
Mississippi State started strong against LSU before fading to a straight-up and ATS (against the spread) loss. The team's energy and effort were much better, though, and this team has played well enough in spurts for coaches to stay positive, preaching the idea that "we've proven we can do it; now we just need to do it with more consistency." Joe Moorhead and staff are pitching the improvements on display in the loss to LSU as moral victories and this week as the week the team can put it all together. This crew is fragile, and another loss could start a real tailspin, but it hasn't quit on Moorhead just yet. Expect one more spirited effort at Kyle Field.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-9, 50) at Rice Owls
We mentioned last week that Rice had a great open date heading into its road tilt at UTSA. The 0-7 Owls have been competitive in every conference game and continue to sport a good attitude despite the latest setback. It's been another good week for a team that continues to keep its head up and remains hungry for a victory. Southern Miss has better skill personnel and presents a speed mismatch for Rice in places, but this week the Owls appear poised to make fewer self-inflicted mistakes than an Eagles squad that's had a difficult time this week shaking off the tough loss to rival Louisiana Tech.
Missouri Tigers (-10, 45) at Kentucky Wildcats
One team that's bouncing back nicely in practice is Missouri. The Vanderbilt game was no doubt a "wake-up call" type of loss, and it has lit a sense of urgency in this team that we haven't seen this year. The price is high, even against a Kentucky squad that's still operating without a quarterback, but Missouri is coming in with the kind of mindset that you don't want to fade.
South Florida Bulls (-2.5, 51.5) at East Carolina Pirates
One of these 3-4 teams is on the path to becoming a good team; the other is on the way to becoming its next coach's rebuilding project. We've been eyeing the Pirates in this spot, and what they've shown on the practice fields so far has been enough to keep them on the playlist.
We love what Mike Houston is doing at East Carolina, and while this bunch is probably a year away from a winning season and several away from making noise in the AAC race, it's also improving right now. The Pirates have logged back-to-back moral victories (and covers) against Temple and UCF, respectively, and the tangible progress has created a positive vibe around the team's preparations this week.
South Florida fans and media have accepted that the Charlie Strong era is coming to a close. This week of practice has been better than last week's disaster, and the Bulls could see a big boost from the probable return of injured quarterback Jordan McCloud. South Florida is not as tanked as we'd hoped just yet, but neither do we see the heightened sense of urgency that would be the necessary red flag for fading this team. We also like this as a potential second-half spot for ECU, as the Pirates are now the tougher team mentally and have comeback confidence after outscoring UCF 22-6 in the second stanza last Saturday.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Alabama Crimson Tide (-31.5, 55.5)
If Alabama doesn't cover Mac Jones' first start at quarterback, it won't be his fault. Jones played pretty well against Tennessee, and anybody would expect improvement now. Last week, he was thrown into the fire unexpectedly. This week, he has a full week of reps as the starter, plenty of time to prepare mentally, and he has a game plan specifically built for him.
Anybody might also expect that losing a superstar player like Tua Tagovailoa would cause all the other players to realize that they need to pick it up a little bit to make up for such a big personnel loss. But while Jones has locked into the details and had a very good week of practice, the same can't be said for the whole team. This has not been a good practice team all year, and it's still showing the same immaturity and lack of functional depth on defense that we wrote about in the offseason. Last year's defense turned the corner during the open date prior to its game with LSU. Maybe this one can do the same, but it's looking more and more doubtful.
A plan of attacking this defense all year by playing Alabama's opponent, the over and over the opponent's team total would have you at 13-8 in those 21 bets. Keep fading this young defense until it shows better habits.