Best bets for Week 8 college football games 💪
Best bets for Week 8 college football games
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the eighth full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly: 13-8-1 (1-2 last week)
Kezirian: 26-17-1 (4-0-1 last week)
Johnson: 21-16-1 (5-2 last week)
Steele: 13-24 (0-5 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
Friday's games
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-28.5) at Northwestern Wildcats
Kezirian: As I have mentioned before, this is not a typical Northwestern team. The Wildcats are extremely inept on offense and lack speed on defense, which is why they are winless against Power 5 opponents. They haven't scored a first-half touchdown in those four losses, while mustering only three field goals. Ohio State presents a giant mismatch but some worry about a flat spot, given that it hosts undefeated Wisconsin on Oct. 26; I do not.
A road game on a Friday night should have a "big-game feel," and I also think the Buckeyes will respond after being leapfrogged by LSU in the polls. To avoid the backdoor cover, I'll side with a strong start from Ohio State. The Buckeyes should roll, unless the rumors about the Ryan Field grass prove legitimate.
Pick: Ohio State -17 1H (FanDuel)
Saturday's games
New Mexico Lobos at Wyoming Cowboys (-20)
Connelly: SP+ has had a pretty good read on these two teams this season, going a combined 8-2-1 against the midweek spread in New Mexico and Wyoming games, with an absolute error (the average distance between projection and reality) of about 9.5 points. So I'm deferring to the numbers here, and SP+ says Wyoming by 16.1.
The pick makes sense in a lot of ways. New Mexico obviously isn't very good but doesn't get blown out by teams not named Notre Dame -- its past three losses have come by an average of 10.7 points, and to teams only a little bit worse, on average, than Wyoming. Meanwhile, five of six Wyoming games have been decided by single digits. Even if the Cowboys control the game, a victory of something like 14-17 points seems realistic.
ATS pick: New Mexico +20
Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 13 Utah Utes (-14)
Connelly: Here are some words I didn't really think I'd ever find myself typing in a college football piece: I'm putting faith in Herm Edwards' team.
SP+ projects Utah as a 10.6-point favorite here, and Edwards' Sun Devils have shown diverse defensive prowess in recent weeks -- dominating Cal (3.9 yards per play), then going full-on bend-don't-break against Washington State -- to make me think they can at least keep things close in Salt Lake City.
Mind you, Utah's defense should be too much for a limited Arizona State offense. The Utes' stop unit has given up a combined 20 points in two games since the frustrating loss to USC, and while ASU freshman QB Jayden Daniels has had some exciting moments, he still plays like a freshman sometimes. Running back Eno Benjamin might have finally gotten his season on track against Washington State, so we'll say the Sun Devils do just enough to keep this one within the number.
ATS pick: Arizona State +14
Toledo Rockets (-1.5) at Ball State Cardinals
Connelly: This one concerns me a bit, simply because Toledo has the talent and athleticism to put together a major bounce-back after last weekend's strangely feckless loss at Bowling Green. But once again, I'm leaning on the numbers -- SP+ has been dialed into Ball State all season (average absolute error: just 6.5 points per game), and it says Cardinals by 2.0.
It says this even though it doesn't take quarterback injuries into account. Toledo's Mitchell Guadagni left the Bowling Green game with injury and is listed as questionable for Saturday. Giving up 20 points to BGSU is pretty damning, but the offense was the main reason the Rockets lost -- it scored only seven points with Guadagni, then went punt-punt-turnover on downs-interception without him. Ball State has the second-best defense in the MAC and could limit this attack if Guadagni is anything less than 100 percent.
Pick: Ball State +1.5
Iowa State Cyclones (-7) at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Steele: Texas Tech is 7-2 its past nine home games versus Iowa State. In Tech's previous home game, quarterback Jett Duffey threw for 424 yards, and the Red Raiders dominated ranked Oklahoma State in a 45-35 upset victory.
Texas Tech is plus-257 yards per game at home and minus-206 yards per game on the road. The Red Raiders nearly upset ranked Baylor on the road last weekend before falling in double overtime. While Texas Tech is allowing 433 yards per game on defense, it is actually holding foes to 41 yards per game below their average. I will call for the Red Raiders to cover their third consecutive Big 12 game.
ATS pick: Texas Tech +7
Score: Texas Tech 28, Iowa State 27
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes (-18)
Steele: It was obvious coming into the season that the Georgia Tech offense would struggle, with head coach Geoff Collins inheriting option personnel and trying to shift to the spread. Georgia Tech is averaging just 15 points per game against FBS foes.
While Miami is just 3-3, the Hurricanes are outgaining foes by 130 yards per game and are still alive in the ACC Coastal thanks to a win over Virginia last week. Georgia Tech will struggle to score against a Miami defense that is allowing just 289 yards per game. The Hurricanes' offense needs to heat up with some big games on the horizon, and has plenty of weapons to get that done. Georgia Tech has lost nine games in a row ATS.
ATS pick: Miami -18
Score: Miami 34, Georgia Tech 6
Northern Illinois Huskies (-2) at Miami RedHawks
Steele: Northern Illinois has been to seven MAC title games the past nine seasons, but most of those squads had a potent rush offense and top-notch rush defense. In the previous two seasons, the defense accounted for 93 sacks; this season, the Huskies (2-4) average just 3.5 yards per carry on offense, and have only seven sacks in six games.
Last weekend, they trailed Ohio 21-10 at the half and rallied for the victory, but now must travel again. Miami was much better than the final score last week, as the RedHawks outgained Western Michigan 365-310 but gave up a 74-yard interception return touchdown and three late scores, losing on the road 38-16.
Miami head coach Chuck Martin is now 3-22 SU and 1-11 ATS in nonconference play the past three seasons, and the RedHawks are 0-4 ATS this season in those spots. Miami turns the switch on in MAC play, at 17-7 SU the past 24 MAC games (8-2 ATS past 10).
ATS pick: Miami +2
Score: Miami 24, Northern Illinois 20
Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-2.5)
Steele: Florida State has won the past seven meetings in this series by 28 points per game, but Wake Forest is favored for the first time in this matchup since 2009, when it was a 5-point home favorite and lost 41-28. Florida State ran into the wrong team at the wrong time last week, facing a Clemson squad that had fallen from its No. 1 spot in the AP poll and was coming off a bye (Clemson rolled 45-14).
Last week, Wake trailed Louisville 52-31 in the fourth quarter at home and got a lot of late scoring only to lose 62-59. Florida State beat that same Louisville squad 35-24 with a solid 522-410 edge in yardage. The Seminoles have faced my No. 14 toughest schedule, while the Demon Deacons have taken on only my No.-78 rated slate. Florida State is 3-3 and in a must-win situation.
ATS pick: Florida State +2.5
Score: Florida State 34, Wake Forest 31
No. 9 Florida Gators (-5) at South Carolina Gamecocks
Steele: Florida has been impressive the past two weeks, but I wonder how much it has left in the tank. Two weeks ago, the Gators gave a great effort in the Swamp and upset Auburn, and last week left it all on the field in a draining 14-point loss at LSU. The Gators must take to the road again, this time as a favorite.
South Carolina figures to be at the opposite end of the spectrum. Three weeks ago, the Gamecocks were a desperate team needing to beat Kentucky to avoid falling to 1-4. After knocking off No. 3 Georgia 20-17 on the road, they are now 3-3 and a contender in the SEC East. Coach Will Muschamp is 12-4 ATS as a 'dog the past three seasons, with nine outright upsets, and the home crowd will be a factor here.
ATS pick: South Carolina +5
Score: South Carolina 21, Florida 20
Colorado Buffaloes at Washington State Cougars (-12.5)
Steele: In the Cougars' previous home game, they were 3-0, led UCLA 49-17 late in the third quarter and were likely to move up from their No. 19 ranking with a victory. After somehow blowing that 32-point lead and losing that game, Washington State took to the road against two of the top teams in the Pac-12 and now stands at 3-3. This is the Cougars' only home game in seven weeks, and coach Mike Leach has been calling out his team for lack of effort.
Colorado opened the season 3-1 but was getting outgained by 33 yards per game. Last week, the Buffaloes were finally exposed, losing at Oregon 45-3. Colorado was down big to Nebraska and Air Force but came back to make those games close (and win one of them). Washington State is the stronger -- and more desperate -- team off three losses.
ATS pick: Washington St -12.5
Score: Washington State 49, Colorado 30
No. 18 Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5)
Johnson: My projection is Cowboys -6.7 here, and I ultimately think the discrepancy is due to Baylor's 6-0 record and coming off of a victory against a Texas Tech team that beat Oklahoma State two weeks ago.
Some context is appropriate, though, as the Bears needed a late field goal to tie the game in regulation before winning in double overtime. The Cowboys, on the other hand, turned it over five times against the Red Raiders and still had a shot in the fourth quarter to win. They have another loss on their résumé, in Austin against the Longhorns, but that was a back-and-forth battle in a 36-30 defeat. The Cowboys still project to be the better team, and Baylor's strength of schedule ranks outside the top 100 in the country.
Oklahoma State is at home coming off its bye week and that Texas Tech loss. Quarterback Spencer Sanders will be better, and the injury to linebacker Clay Johnston is a massive loss for Baylor (his 58 tackles are 28 more than any other player on the team). Trying to defend the read-option and a dual threat like Sanders without Johnston is too tough a demand, and I have this game lined closer to -7 anyway. I'll lay the -3.5.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State -3.5
Kezirian: I'm extremely impressed with what Matt Rhule has done to turn around this program, given the scandal surrounding former coach Art Briles. The Bears are now a healthy program with a good team. However, this is a perfect spot for the Pokes coming off a bye, while Baylor is off an emotional double-overtime win. Plus, Baylor's undefeated mark has stemmed from a fortunate schedule.
The Bears' two toughest opponents were at home, and their most impressive road win came against a mediocre Kansas State team. Okie State hung with Texas in Austin, and the offense has looked fairly explosive aside from a couple dry stretches. I like the Cowboys to win this by more than one score.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State -3.5
Arizona Wildcats at USC Trojans (-10)
Kezirian: Arizona completely unraveled last weekend in the second half against Washington (outscored 38-10), and it sure looks like the Wildcats are headed for another blowout loss here. As talented as Khalil Tate is, he is also susceptible to inexplicable turnovers and erratic play. Coach Kevin Sumlin even hinted that his star quarterback was not fully healthy, but then backtracked on those comments. All this comes at the worst time, facing a USC team that is ready to pound an opponent.
The Trojans are coming off back-to-back road losses against quality opponents in Washington and Notre Dame. I fully expect USC to get right and keep its bowl hopes alive. The Trojans should scorch a horrendous Arizona defense and pull away.
ATS pick: USC -9.5
No. 12 Oregon Ducks (-3) at No. 25 Washington Huskies
Kezirian: We have been trained to associate high scoring with Oregon games, but it's a new era in Eugene. Mario Cristobal has restructured this defense, which ranks third in the country this season, allowing 3.8 yards per play. Oregon has gone under the total in five of its six games. My biggest takeaway from watching the Ducks is that they are perfectly comfortable in games that prioritize field position rather than tempo, which fits well with Washington, particularly with Jacob Eason's struggles (his Total QBR is 48 in conference play, last among Pac-12 quarterbacks with multiple starts). This should be an exciting game that comes down to the wire, and my gut tells me both coaches will approach this pretty conservatively. I'll opt for the first-half total in case one team trails by double digits in the second half and must force throws, leading to more points.
Pick: Under 24 (first half) (BetMGM)
No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-24) at Louisville Cardinals
Kezirian: The bye week arrived at the perfect time for Clemson. The Tigers nearly lost to North Carolina, then came off the bye to flex their muscles with an emphatic win over Florida State. I expect them to stay on that track with an aerial attack against a Louisville team that statistically owns one of the worst pass defenses in the nation. Clemson players (like Ohio State's) have to be annoyed the Tigers were passed by LSU in the rankings. I am playing both the side and total, with more confidence on hitting both than losing both with a little protection. The Tigers have an outstanding defense but garbage time has translated to only one opponent being held to single digits.
Pick: Clemson -24 and over 60.5
No. 2 LSU Tigers (-18.5) at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Kezirian: This is a potential flat spot for LSU, given the big win over Florida, but this Tigers team is far superior to the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is 1-3 against Power 5 teams and has been outscored by 50 points in its three losses. Freshman QB Garrett Shrader gets the start, and that does suggest a better performance, as he has posted better numbers. However, I'll still lay the lumber. The Tigers have scored just 26 combined points the past two meetings, including a loss, so I'm expecting a determined team.
ATS pick: LSU (-18.5)
North Carolina Tar Heels (-3.5) at Virginia Tech Hokies
Kezirian: Don't be fooled by Virginia Tech's 4-2 record: Only one of those victories came against a Power 5 school (Miami), and the others came at the expense of Old Dominion, Furman and Rhode Island. The Hokies also showed us their ineptitude by losing 45-10 at home to Duke. North Carolina is a solid football team, with freshman quarterback Sam Howell continuing to evolve. We've seen the ceiling with a near-upset of Clemson, and I like this spot coming off a bye. The Tar Heels should win by double digits.
ATS pick: North Carolina -3.5
Tennessee Volunteers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-34.5)
Kezirian: Alabama is an offensive juggernaut and continues to post ridiculous numbers, scoring at least 47 points in five consecutive games. But Bama has defensive weaknesses, particularly with its linebacker injuries. The Crimson Tide have allowed 27.3 PPG to their three SEC opponents so far. Tennessee is certainly a notch below those opponents (South Carolina, Ole Miss and Texas A&M), but Volunteers coach Jeremy Pruitt's comments suggest we should see more scoring. Pruitt joked that he should avoid punting, given Alabama's explosive offense, but he did give the vibe that the Vols might take more chances with trick plays and going for it on fourth down. That certainly lends itself to an over.
Freshman QB Brian Maurer has been effective, but he might miss this game with after suffering a concussion last weekend. Either way, this has points written all over it.
Pick: Over 62 and Alabama team total over 48 (FanDuel)
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the eighth full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly: 13-8-1 (1-2 last week)
Kezirian: 26-17-1 (4-0-1 last week)
Johnson: 21-16-1 (5-2 last week)
Steele: 13-24 (0-5 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
Friday's games
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-28.5) at Northwestern Wildcats
Kezirian: As I have mentioned before, this is not a typical Northwestern team. The Wildcats are extremely inept on offense and lack speed on defense, which is why they are winless against Power 5 opponents. They haven't scored a first-half touchdown in those four losses, while mustering only three field goals. Ohio State presents a giant mismatch but some worry about a flat spot, given that it hosts undefeated Wisconsin on Oct. 26; I do not.
A road game on a Friday night should have a "big-game feel," and I also think the Buckeyes will respond after being leapfrogged by LSU in the polls. To avoid the backdoor cover, I'll side with a strong start from Ohio State. The Buckeyes should roll, unless the rumors about the Ryan Field grass prove legitimate.
Pick: Ohio State -17 1H (FanDuel)
Saturday's games
New Mexico Lobos at Wyoming Cowboys (-20)
Connelly: SP+ has had a pretty good read on these two teams this season, going a combined 8-2-1 against the midweek spread in New Mexico and Wyoming games, with an absolute error (the average distance between projection and reality) of about 9.5 points. So I'm deferring to the numbers here, and SP+ says Wyoming by 16.1.
The pick makes sense in a lot of ways. New Mexico obviously isn't very good but doesn't get blown out by teams not named Notre Dame -- its past three losses have come by an average of 10.7 points, and to teams only a little bit worse, on average, than Wyoming. Meanwhile, five of six Wyoming games have been decided by single digits. Even if the Cowboys control the game, a victory of something like 14-17 points seems realistic.
ATS pick: New Mexico +20
Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 13 Utah Utes (-14)
Connelly: Here are some words I didn't really think I'd ever find myself typing in a college football piece: I'm putting faith in Herm Edwards' team.
SP+ projects Utah as a 10.6-point favorite here, and Edwards' Sun Devils have shown diverse defensive prowess in recent weeks -- dominating Cal (3.9 yards per play), then going full-on bend-don't-break against Washington State -- to make me think they can at least keep things close in Salt Lake City.
Mind you, Utah's defense should be too much for a limited Arizona State offense. The Utes' stop unit has given up a combined 20 points in two games since the frustrating loss to USC, and while ASU freshman QB Jayden Daniels has had some exciting moments, he still plays like a freshman sometimes. Running back Eno Benjamin might have finally gotten his season on track against Washington State, so we'll say the Sun Devils do just enough to keep this one within the number.
ATS pick: Arizona State +14
Toledo Rockets (-1.5) at Ball State Cardinals
Connelly: This one concerns me a bit, simply because Toledo has the talent and athleticism to put together a major bounce-back after last weekend's strangely feckless loss at Bowling Green. But once again, I'm leaning on the numbers -- SP+ has been dialed into Ball State all season (average absolute error: just 6.5 points per game), and it says Cardinals by 2.0.
It says this even though it doesn't take quarterback injuries into account. Toledo's Mitchell Guadagni left the Bowling Green game with injury and is listed as questionable for Saturday. Giving up 20 points to BGSU is pretty damning, but the offense was the main reason the Rockets lost -- it scored only seven points with Guadagni, then went punt-punt-turnover on downs-interception without him. Ball State has the second-best defense in the MAC and could limit this attack if Guadagni is anything less than 100 percent.
Pick: Ball State +1.5
Iowa State Cyclones (-7) at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Steele: Texas Tech is 7-2 its past nine home games versus Iowa State. In Tech's previous home game, quarterback Jett Duffey threw for 424 yards, and the Red Raiders dominated ranked Oklahoma State in a 45-35 upset victory.
Texas Tech is plus-257 yards per game at home and minus-206 yards per game on the road. The Red Raiders nearly upset ranked Baylor on the road last weekend before falling in double overtime. While Texas Tech is allowing 433 yards per game on defense, it is actually holding foes to 41 yards per game below their average. I will call for the Red Raiders to cover their third consecutive Big 12 game.
ATS pick: Texas Tech +7
Score: Texas Tech 28, Iowa State 27
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Miami Hurricanes (-18)
Steele: It was obvious coming into the season that the Georgia Tech offense would struggle, with head coach Geoff Collins inheriting option personnel and trying to shift to the spread. Georgia Tech is averaging just 15 points per game against FBS foes.
While Miami is just 3-3, the Hurricanes are outgaining foes by 130 yards per game and are still alive in the ACC Coastal thanks to a win over Virginia last week. Georgia Tech will struggle to score against a Miami defense that is allowing just 289 yards per game. The Hurricanes' offense needs to heat up with some big games on the horizon, and has plenty of weapons to get that done. Georgia Tech has lost nine games in a row ATS.
ATS pick: Miami -18
Score: Miami 34, Georgia Tech 6
Northern Illinois Huskies (-2) at Miami RedHawks
Steele: Northern Illinois has been to seven MAC title games the past nine seasons, but most of those squads had a potent rush offense and top-notch rush defense. In the previous two seasons, the defense accounted for 93 sacks; this season, the Huskies (2-4) average just 3.5 yards per carry on offense, and have only seven sacks in six games.
Last weekend, they trailed Ohio 21-10 at the half and rallied for the victory, but now must travel again. Miami was much better than the final score last week, as the RedHawks outgained Western Michigan 365-310 but gave up a 74-yard interception return touchdown and three late scores, losing on the road 38-16.
Miami head coach Chuck Martin is now 3-22 SU and 1-11 ATS in nonconference play the past three seasons, and the RedHawks are 0-4 ATS this season in those spots. Miami turns the switch on in MAC play, at 17-7 SU the past 24 MAC games (8-2 ATS past 10).
ATS pick: Miami +2
Score: Miami 24, Northern Illinois 20
Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-2.5)
Steele: Florida State has won the past seven meetings in this series by 28 points per game, but Wake Forest is favored for the first time in this matchup since 2009, when it was a 5-point home favorite and lost 41-28. Florida State ran into the wrong team at the wrong time last week, facing a Clemson squad that had fallen from its No. 1 spot in the AP poll and was coming off a bye (Clemson rolled 45-14).
Last week, Wake trailed Louisville 52-31 in the fourth quarter at home and got a lot of late scoring only to lose 62-59. Florida State beat that same Louisville squad 35-24 with a solid 522-410 edge in yardage. The Seminoles have faced my No. 14 toughest schedule, while the Demon Deacons have taken on only my No.-78 rated slate. Florida State is 3-3 and in a must-win situation.
ATS pick: Florida State +2.5
Score: Florida State 34, Wake Forest 31
No. 9 Florida Gators (-5) at South Carolina Gamecocks
Steele: Florida has been impressive the past two weeks, but I wonder how much it has left in the tank. Two weeks ago, the Gators gave a great effort in the Swamp and upset Auburn, and last week left it all on the field in a draining 14-point loss at LSU. The Gators must take to the road again, this time as a favorite.
South Carolina figures to be at the opposite end of the spectrum. Three weeks ago, the Gamecocks were a desperate team needing to beat Kentucky to avoid falling to 1-4. After knocking off No. 3 Georgia 20-17 on the road, they are now 3-3 and a contender in the SEC East. Coach Will Muschamp is 12-4 ATS as a 'dog the past three seasons, with nine outright upsets, and the home crowd will be a factor here.
ATS pick: South Carolina +5
Score: South Carolina 21, Florida 20
Colorado Buffaloes at Washington State Cougars (-12.5)
Steele: In the Cougars' previous home game, they were 3-0, led UCLA 49-17 late in the third quarter and were likely to move up from their No. 19 ranking with a victory. After somehow blowing that 32-point lead and losing that game, Washington State took to the road against two of the top teams in the Pac-12 and now stands at 3-3. This is the Cougars' only home game in seven weeks, and coach Mike Leach has been calling out his team for lack of effort.
Colorado opened the season 3-1 but was getting outgained by 33 yards per game. Last week, the Buffaloes were finally exposed, losing at Oregon 45-3. Colorado was down big to Nebraska and Air Force but came back to make those games close (and win one of them). Washington State is the stronger -- and more desperate -- team off three losses.
ATS pick: Washington St -12.5
Score: Washington State 49, Colorado 30
No. 18 Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5)
Johnson: My projection is Cowboys -6.7 here, and I ultimately think the discrepancy is due to Baylor's 6-0 record and coming off of a victory against a Texas Tech team that beat Oklahoma State two weeks ago.
Some context is appropriate, though, as the Bears needed a late field goal to tie the game in regulation before winning in double overtime. The Cowboys, on the other hand, turned it over five times against the Red Raiders and still had a shot in the fourth quarter to win. They have another loss on their résumé, in Austin against the Longhorns, but that was a back-and-forth battle in a 36-30 defeat. The Cowboys still project to be the better team, and Baylor's strength of schedule ranks outside the top 100 in the country.
Oklahoma State is at home coming off its bye week and that Texas Tech loss. Quarterback Spencer Sanders will be better, and the injury to linebacker Clay Johnston is a massive loss for Baylor (his 58 tackles are 28 more than any other player on the team). Trying to defend the read-option and a dual threat like Sanders without Johnston is too tough a demand, and I have this game lined closer to -7 anyway. I'll lay the -3.5.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State -3.5
Kezirian: I'm extremely impressed with what Matt Rhule has done to turn around this program, given the scandal surrounding former coach Art Briles. The Bears are now a healthy program with a good team. However, this is a perfect spot for the Pokes coming off a bye, while Baylor is off an emotional double-overtime win. Plus, Baylor's undefeated mark has stemmed from a fortunate schedule.
The Bears' two toughest opponents were at home, and their most impressive road win came against a mediocre Kansas State team. Okie State hung with Texas in Austin, and the offense has looked fairly explosive aside from a couple dry stretches. I like the Cowboys to win this by more than one score.
ATS pick: Oklahoma State -3.5
Arizona Wildcats at USC Trojans (-10)
Kezirian: Arizona completely unraveled last weekend in the second half against Washington (outscored 38-10), and it sure looks like the Wildcats are headed for another blowout loss here. As talented as Khalil Tate is, he is also susceptible to inexplicable turnovers and erratic play. Coach Kevin Sumlin even hinted that his star quarterback was not fully healthy, but then backtracked on those comments. All this comes at the worst time, facing a USC team that is ready to pound an opponent.
The Trojans are coming off back-to-back road losses against quality opponents in Washington and Notre Dame. I fully expect USC to get right and keep its bowl hopes alive. The Trojans should scorch a horrendous Arizona defense and pull away.
ATS pick: USC -9.5
No. 12 Oregon Ducks (-3) at No. 25 Washington Huskies
Kezirian: We have been trained to associate high scoring with Oregon games, but it's a new era in Eugene. Mario Cristobal has restructured this defense, which ranks third in the country this season, allowing 3.8 yards per play. Oregon has gone under the total in five of its six games. My biggest takeaway from watching the Ducks is that they are perfectly comfortable in games that prioritize field position rather than tempo, which fits well with Washington, particularly with Jacob Eason's struggles (his Total QBR is 48 in conference play, last among Pac-12 quarterbacks with multiple starts). This should be an exciting game that comes down to the wire, and my gut tells me both coaches will approach this pretty conservatively. I'll opt for the first-half total in case one team trails by double digits in the second half and must force throws, leading to more points.
Pick: Under 24 (first half) (BetMGM)
No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-24) at Louisville Cardinals
Kezirian: The bye week arrived at the perfect time for Clemson. The Tigers nearly lost to North Carolina, then came off the bye to flex their muscles with an emphatic win over Florida State. I expect them to stay on that track with an aerial attack against a Louisville team that statistically owns one of the worst pass defenses in the nation. Clemson players (like Ohio State's) have to be annoyed the Tigers were passed by LSU in the rankings. I am playing both the side and total, with more confidence on hitting both than losing both with a little protection. The Tigers have an outstanding defense but garbage time has translated to only one opponent being held to single digits.
Pick: Clemson -24 and over 60.5
No. 2 LSU Tigers (-18.5) at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Kezirian: This is a potential flat spot for LSU, given the big win over Florida, but this Tigers team is far superior to the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is 1-3 against Power 5 teams and has been outscored by 50 points in its three losses. Freshman QB Garrett Shrader gets the start, and that does suggest a better performance, as he has posted better numbers. However, I'll still lay the lumber. The Tigers have scored just 26 combined points the past two meetings, including a loss, so I'm expecting a determined team.
ATS pick: LSU (-18.5)
North Carolina Tar Heels (-3.5) at Virginia Tech Hokies
Kezirian: Don't be fooled by Virginia Tech's 4-2 record: Only one of those victories came against a Power 5 school (Miami), and the others came at the expense of Old Dominion, Furman and Rhode Island. The Hokies also showed us their ineptitude by losing 45-10 at home to Duke. North Carolina is a solid football team, with freshman quarterback Sam Howell continuing to evolve. We've seen the ceiling with a near-upset of Clemson, and I like this spot coming off a bye. The Tar Heels should win by double digits.
ATS pick: North Carolina -3.5
Tennessee Volunteers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-34.5)
Kezirian: Alabama is an offensive juggernaut and continues to post ridiculous numbers, scoring at least 47 points in five consecutive games. But Bama has defensive weaknesses, particularly with its linebacker injuries. The Crimson Tide have allowed 27.3 PPG to their three SEC opponents so far. Tennessee is certainly a notch below those opponents (South Carolina, Ole Miss and Texas A&M), but Volunteers coach Jeremy Pruitt's comments suggest we should see more scoring. Pruitt joked that he should avoid punting, given Alabama's explosive offense, but he did give the vibe that the Vols might take more chances with trick plays and going for it on fourth down. That certainly lends itself to an over.
Freshman QB Brian Maurer has been effective, but he might miss this game with after suffering a concussion last weekend. Either way, this has points written all over it.
Pick: Over 62 and Alabama team total over 48 (FanDuel)