Where FPI sees a Week 5 college football edge vs. the spread 💪
Where FPI sees a Week 5 college football edge vs. the spread
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
he betting market and our Football Power Index (FPI) often agree -- but not always. Each week, we'll highlight some of the instances in which our model significantly disagrees with the spread. We're looking at not only which side FPI feels is the right side but also why.
2019 ATS record: 7-15
2019 closing line value: 16-5-1
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Sept. 24.
Virginia Cavaliers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-12.5)
3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: Notre Dame by 18.4
Only eight spots separate these two in the AP poll, but if we look at just what they've done this season on a play-by-play level and adjust for opponent -- what we call efficiency -- Notre Dame has been the ninth-best team this year and Virginia the 31st. And that's not considering any preseason notions of these two teams.
This should be a good battle between each team's quarterback and two top-20 pass defenses, in terms of expected points added per play. There hasn't been much of a difference between Bryce Perkins and Ian Book this year, but if you think about these two dating back to last year, Book clearly has been better.
FPI pick: Notre Dame -12.5
UAB Blazers (-3) at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
7 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: Western Kentucky by 3.8
The Hilltoppers just lost quarterback Steven Duncan to what is likely a season-ending injury. Normally, we would steer clear of that, but he ranked 115th in Total QBR, so there's a good chance this doesn't hurt them much.
The real difference in this game stems back to each team's performance in Week 1, when Western Kentucky dropped a home game to Central Arkansas and UAB barely skated by Alabama State. It might seem as if UAB had the better day, but one of the strengths of FPI is that it also produces FCS ratings. So, actually, Western Kentucky had the better performance that day. That led to a more significant rating downgrade for UAB.
Both teams have stabilized since then, but UAB hasn't caught up from that initial downgrade.
FPI pick: Western Kentucky +3
Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies (-24)
7:30 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: Utah State by 18.5
Colorado State quarterback Collin Hill was knocked out for the year with a torn ACL in Week 3, but Nebraska transfer Patrick O'Brien has been solid in his stead, with a 63 QBR in a small sample.
Ultimately, it's easy to see why this is such a mismatch. Utah State has been the 20th-best offense in terms of efficiency, and Colorado State has been fifth worst. It's obviously a huge mismatch, but FPI is basically saying that 24 points is just too much.
FPI pick: Colorado State +24
Nevada Wolf Pack (-2) at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
10:30 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: Hawai'i by 3.5
Nevada narrowly beat us last week when we picked UTEP +15.5 and the Wolf Pack won by 16. We're taking another crack at 'em.
Both of these teams pass quite a bit, but Hawai'i passes more, with the sixth-highest dropback percentage in FBS football this season. And the Rainbow Warriors' Cole McDonald (QBR: 68.3) has been much better than Nevada's Carson Strong (26.7).
So, we get points with the better QB on the team that passes more? Sign us up.
FPI pick: Hawai'i +2
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
he betting market and our Football Power Index (FPI) often agree -- but not always. Each week, we'll highlight some of the instances in which our model significantly disagrees with the spread. We're looking at not only which side FPI feels is the right side but also why.
2019 ATS record: 7-15
2019 closing line value: 16-5-1
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Sept. 24.
Virginia Cavaliers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-12.5)
3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: Notre Dame by 18.4
Only eight spots separate these two in the AP poll, but if we look at just what they've done this season on a play-by-play level and adjust for opponent -- what we call efficiency -- Notre Dame has been the ninth-best team this year and Virginia the 31st. And that's not considering any preseason notions of these two teams.
This should be a good battle between each team's quarterback and two top-20 pass defenses, in terms of expected points added per play. There hasn't been much of a difference between Bryce Perkins and Ian Book this year, but if you think about these two dating back to last year, Book clearly has been better.
FPI pick: Notre Dame -12.5
UAB Blazers (-3) at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
7 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: Western Kentucky by 3.8
The Hilltoppers just lost quarterback Steven Duncan to what is likely a season-ending injury. Normally, we would steer clear of that, but he ranked 115th in Total QBR, so there's a good chance this doesn't hurt them much.
The real difference in this game stems back to each team's performance in Week 1, when Western Kentucky dropped a home game to Central Arkansas and UAB barely skated by Alabama State. It might seem as if UAB had the better day, but one of the strengths of FPI is that it also produces FCS ratings. So, actually, Western Kentucky had the better performance that day. That led to a more significant rating downgrade for UAB.
Both teams have stabilized since then, but UAB hasn't caught up from that initial downgrade.
FPI pick: Western Kentucky +3
Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies (-24)
7:30 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: Utah State by 18.5
Colorado State quarterback Collin Hill was knocked out for the year with a torn ACL in Week 3, but Nebraska transfer Patrick O'Brien has been solid in his stead, with a 63 QBR in a small sample.
Ultimately, it's easy to see why this is such a mismatch. Utah State has been the 20th-best offense in terms of efficiency, and Colorado State has been fifth worst. It's obviously a huge mismatch, but FPI is basically saying that 24 points is just too much.
FPI pick: Colorado State +24
Nevada Wolf Pack (-2) at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
10:30 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: Hawai'i by 3.5
Nevada narrowly beat us last week when we picked UTEP +15.5 and the Wolf Pack won by 16. We're taking another crack at 'em.
Both of these teams pass quite a bit, but Hawai'i passes more, with the sixth-highest dropback percentage in FBS football this season. And the Rainbow Warriors' Cole McDonald (QBR: 68.3) has been much better than Nevada's Carson Strong (26.7).
So, we get points with the better QB on the team that passes more? Sign us up.
FPI pick: Hawai'i +2