Best Bets For Week 2 College Football Games 🏈
Best bets for Week 2 college football games
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the second full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly: 3-0
Kezirian: 4-1
Johnson: 3-3
Steele: 1-4
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
Friday's games
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-19) at Rice Owls
Steele: Dave Clawson is doing a solid job at Wake Forest, but the Deacons are coming off a last-minute home win versus Utah State in which Wake got a TD with 1:07 left to pull off a three-point victory. The Demon Deacons also have a massive game versus rival North Carolina on deck next Friday. They are making a long trip to Texas but blasted Rice last season, so this figures to be a flat spot. Rice nearly upset Army last week on the road, with the Black Knights scoring a touchdown with 3:38 left to win 14-7. This game is Rice's most winnable contest in its first four. I think the Owls will be fired up for their home opener and keep this within the number.
ATS pick: Rice +19
Score: Wake Forest 34, Rice 24
Saturday's games
UL Monroe Warhawks at Florida State Seminoles (-21)
Johnson: Florida State's makeshift home opener against Boise State was truly a tale of two halves. Media pundits (including me) overreacted to the new Kendal Briles offense in a first half, which saw the Seminoles drop 31 on the Broncos. Then Boise State played the most impressive half by any team in Week 1, shutting out Florida State and rallying for an outright victory behind freshman QB Hank Bachmeier.
I'm willing to give the credit to the Broncos but trust the potential we saw in the first half with the Seminoles' offense behind James Blackman and Cam Akers. UL-Monroe is certainly a step down from Boise State, and I anticipate a response from an FSU squad that I think should be a 24-point favorite anyway.
ATS pick: Florida State -21
Wyoming Cowboys (-7) at Texas State Bobcats
Johnson: I'm not giving up on this Texas State offense because of one bad showing on the road against arguably a top-10 team in the nation (Texas A&M). I'm still bullish on Jake Spavital taking over as head coach with offensive guru Bob Stitt. This is a play against the perception of how badly Wyoming beat Missouri this past Saturday.
The Cowboys did in fact win the game, as far as the final score is concerned, but they were dominated in every other part of the box score. Missouri outgained Wyoming 537 yards to 389 and had 28 first downs to Wyoming's 16. The swing in this game was the three Tigers turnovers with detrimental results. Missouri couldn't get out of its own way, and offensively, nearly half of Wyoming's total yards came on two running plays when the Tigers' defense completely broke down.
The entire crowd in Laramie rushed the field after the game on Saturday, so it's evident that this win mattered to the Wyoming program. Now the Cowboys head on the road to play a Bobcats team that might be getting overlooked. My projection is +4.6, so I would grab anything +7 or better.
ATS pick: Texas State +7
Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4) at Colorado Buffaloes
Connelly: Nebraska had three return scores last week and still missed the cover by 22 points against South Alabama. Now the Huskers have to face a team that handled its business against a better team in rival Colorado State.
We'll obviously learn far more about both teams this week, but it isn't hard to think that Colorado might have the advantage at home. The receiving trio of Laviska Shenault Jr., Tony Brown and K.D. Nixon shined last week, and while the Buffs' defense didn't, neither did Nebraska's offense. This is a burden-of-proof game for Adrian Martinez and the Huskers.
ATS pick: Colorado +4
SP+ projection: Colorado 42, Nebraska 40
Steele: Last year, Nebraska had a 565-395 yard edge, but QB Adrian Martinez was injured for part of the game, the Huskers were minus-three in turnovers, and they lost by five points. Colorado is 0-4 ATS as a home 'dog the past four years, and Scott Frost was 4-1 ATS on the road last season. Although Nebraska was outgained last week at home by South Alabama, the Huskers had a 281-209 yard edge up 14 points with 11 minutes left. Colorado led Colorado State 38-31 early in the fourth quarter and got a late fumble return touchdown for a 52-31 win in which the Buffaloes allowed 505 yards. Martinez was very disappointed with last week's effort and will have a big game as Nebraska gets revenge.
ATS pick: Nebraska -4
Score: Nebraska 35, Colorado 24
Kezirian: I think Colorado wins this game outright but I can't trust a defense that just surrendered 505 yards to Colorado State. However, I do believe in the Buffs' offense. They should be able to put up plenty of points against a Nebraska squad that was thoroughly unimpressive as a 36-point favorite over South Alabama. Are we sure the Huskers are that good? They certainly received a lot of hype this summer, and I was subscribing to most of it. We will learn a lot on Saturday, but for now I will back QB Steven Montez and CU to get theirs.
Pick: Colorado team total over 30.5 (at FanDuel)
UCF Knights (-10.5) at Florida Atlantic Owls
Connelly: I had to double-check to make sure that line was right. SP+ likes UCF by a touchdown more than the spread, and I think I agree. QBs Brandon Wimbush and Dillon Gabriel both looked strong in last week's easy UCF win over FAMU, and Florida Atlantic was gashed on seemingly every third play in the first quarter of a 45-21 loss to Ohio State.
Both SP+ and I assume that FAU will find some offensive success, but you'll probably be able to count the Owls' stops on one hand.
ATS pick: UCF -10.5
SP+ projection: UCF 42, FAU 25
San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins (-7.5)
Connelly: Should UCLA be a 7.5-point favorite over anyone at the moment, much less a team that defends like SDSU?
Granted, the Aztecs can't be trusted to score very much -- putting up a grand total of six points against Weber State was the wrong kind of statement for what is supposed to be a more spread-out SDSU offense. Still, this doesn't seem like much of a get-right game for a UCLA offense that managed only a 27% success rate and 3.5 yards per play against Cincinnati. Even if the Bruins win, how much distance can they build on the scoreboard?
ATS pick: SDSU +7.5
SP+ projection: UCLA 18.1, SDSU 17.9
Kezirian: I still believe in UCLA and refuse to overreact to its disappointing, season-opening loss at Cincinnati. The Bruins had a defensive touchdown nullified by a referee's errant whistle, and the defense played fairly well. The home opener is a much better situation. San Diego State barely beat Weber State (6-0), and the offense looked completely inept. I also have faith in Dorian Thompson-Robinson to play much better and in Chip Kelly to cover this number.
ATS pick: UCLA -7.5
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at No. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes (-20)
Steele: Rutgers has very quietly covered its past six games, and in their previous two Big Ten road games, the Scarlet Knights lost at Wisconsin by 14 points and 14-10 against Michigan State. Texas Tech transfer QB McLane Carter threw for 340 yards in their home win versus UMass last week, and the Scarlet Knights have one of the most underrated running back units in the country. Iowa has its rivalry game against Iowa State on deck and is just 8-14-1 as Big Ten home chalk since 2011.
ATS pick: Rutgers +20
Score: Iowa 34, Rutgers 20
Kezirian: Rutgers is often a punchline, but the program might be turning things around. It's a very low bar, but the team ended last season with a handful of respectable losses. The Scarlet Knights obviously demonstrated some offensive firepower last week in a 48-21 win against a terrible UMass team, and I think they can keep this within the number at Kinnick Stadium. The Hawkeyes also face Iowa State in the annual Cy-Hawk rivalry game next week, so this presents a classic look-ahead spot for Iowa.
ATS pick: Rutgers +20
Johnson: My projection for this game is 52.9, and I think there is a fair amount of upside to this Rutgers offense that we saw go off in Week 1. Regardless of the competition, this was a massive step in the right direction with QB McLane Carter throwing for 340 yards and two touchdowns to go with RB Isaih Pacheco's 156 yards and four touchdowns. Rutgers ended the game on a 41-0 run, and if it weren't for a couple of end zone interceptions by Carter, the Knights would have put up even more points in the contest.
Iowa's defense is clearly superior, but the Hawkeyes' offense is projected to score more points than UMass would anyway (and Rutgers showed weaknesses on that side of the ball in the first half). I'm trusting my numbers and buying low on a Rutgers offense that I believe will be much improved this season.
Pick: Over 50.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Florida International Panthers (-7)
Steele: Last season, Florida International rolled to a 35-3 lead on the road against Western Kentucky and won 38-17. FIU is coming off a 42-14 loss to Tulane last week, but this is its home opener, and coach Butch Davis is 5-1 ATS off a loss when facing an FBS foe. This season is Year 1 at WKU for Tyson Helton, and it figures to be a rebuilding year. I had FIU as a 15-point favorite before the season, so there is value here for me.
ATS pick: FIU -7
Score: FIU 37, Western Kentucky 22
Liberty Flames at Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-13)
Steele: This is a matchup game for me. Louisiana stood toe-to-toe with a strong Mississippi State team last week and will be excited for its home opener with only an FCS foe on deck. Liberty just had its home opener and was shut out 24-0 by Syracuse. Last season, Liberty was 5-1 at home but 1-5 on the road straight up. Also last season, Liberty allowed 222 yards per game on the ground and 5.2 yards per carry. Louisiana has an experienced offensive line as well as my No. 8 set of running backs, will have great success running the ball and will control the game.
ATS pick: Louisiana -13
Score: Louisiana 45, Liberty 23
Miami Hurricanes (-4) at North Carolina Tar Heels
Steele: North Carolina was an 11-point underdog in Charlotte last week and trailed South Carolina 20-9 in the fourth quarter but rallied for a 24-20 upset win. The Tar Heels figure to be in a letdown spot, and the result gives us some line value here. Miami led No. 8 Florida in the fourth quarter and had a 20-17 first-down edge but came up four points short. The Hurricanes are off a bye and have Bethune-Cookman on deck. Miami has a significant edge on defense and special teams, as well as a situational edge.
ATS pick: Miami -4
Score: Miami 27, North Carolina 17
California Golden Bears at No. 14 Washington Huskies (-14)
Steele: Last year, California upset Washington at home 12-10, as the Huskies managed just 250 yards and 13 first downs. Cal has a top-10 defense led by my No. 2 secondary and No. 8 set of linebackers. Cal has covered five in a row as an away dog, with two upsets and every loss by six points or fewer. Washington tends to be overpriced at home and is 1-7 ATS in its past eight as the Pac-12 favorite.
ATS pick: California +14
Score: Washington 23, California 16
Illinois Fighting Illini (-20) at UConn Huskies
Kezirian: I am looking to fade UConn whenever possible. The program has shown no signs of becoming respectable, notching more than three wins just once in the past six years. The Huskies matched last season's win total with an unimpressive 24-21 victory against FCS foe Wagner last week. By no means is Illinois a powerhouse, but Lovie Smith has added speed at several key positions, and I am a fan of quarterback Brandon Peters. The Illini lit up Akron 42-3 last week as 17-point favorites and should have similar ease with UConn. It's unfortunate that RB Mike Epstein is done for the season with an injury, but Illinois still feels like the right side.
ATS pick: Illinois -20
LSU Tigers (-5.5) at Texas Longhorns
Kezirian: Given that the Tigers were underdogs at one point this summer, this line has moved a ton. That's why it's tough to hand in our picks on Wednesday evenings. That said, now that I have seen LSU show offensive creativity rather than just provide lip service on future changes, I'll back the Tigers. I realize Tom Herman is a monster as an underdog (13-2-1 ATS) but LSU has more experience and can finally score enough to cover these spreads. I'll cautiously back LSU.
ATS pick: LSU -5.5
Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany Lions (-30)
Kezirian: ESPN's FPI now favors the Nittany Lions to win the Big Ten East (over Michigan and Ohio State). I'm not ready to go there, but I was encouraged by their offensive prowess in a 79-7 opening win over Idaho. This is also a fade of Buffalo, which somehow received only 69 passing yards from its quarterback. This all has the makings of a beatdown at Happy Valley.
ATS pick: Penn State -30
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the second full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly: 3-0
Kezirian: 4-1
Johnson: 3-3
Steele: 1-4
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
Friday's games
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-19) at Rice Owls
Steele: Dave Clawson is doing a solid job at Wake Forest, but the Deacons are coming off a last-minute home win versus Utah State in which Wake got a TD with 1:07 left to pull off a three-point victory. The Demon Deacons also have a massive game versus rival North Carolina on deck next Friday. They are making a long trip to Texas but blasted Rice last season, so this figures to be a flat spot. Rice nearly upset Army last week on the road, with the Black Knights scoring a touchdown with 3:38 left to win 14-7. This game is Rice's most winnable contest in its first four. I think the Owls will be fired up for their home opener and keep this within the number.
ATS pick: Rice +19
Score: Wake Forest 34, Rice 24
Saturday's games
UL Monroe Warhawks at Florida State Seminoles (-21)
Johnson: Florida State's makeshift home opener against Boise State was truly a tale of two halves. Media pundits (including me) overreacted to the new Kendal Briles offense in a first half, which saw the Seminoles drop 31 on the Broncos. Then Boise State played the most impressive half by any team in Week 1, shutting out Florida State and rallying for an outright victory behind freshman QB Hank Bachmeier.
I'm willing to give the credit to the Broncos but trust the potential we saw in the first half with the Seminoles' offense behind James Blackman and Cam Akers. UL-Monroe is certainly a step down from Boise State, and I anticipate a response from an FSU squad that I think should be a 24-point favorite anyway.
ATS pick: Florida State -21
Wyoming Cowboys (-7) at Texas State Bobcats
Johnson: I'm not giving up on this Texas State offense because of one bad showing on the road against arguably a top-10 team in the nation (Texas A&M). I'm still bullish on Jake Spavital taking over as head coach with offensive guru Bob Stitt. This is a play against the perception of how badly Wyoming beat Missouri this past Saturday.
The Cowboys did in fact win the game, as far as the final score is concerned, but they were dominated in every other part of the box score. Missouri outgained Wyoming 537 yards to 389 and had 28 first downs to Wyoming's 16. The swing in this game was the three Tigers turnovers with detrimental results. Missouri couldn't get out of its own way, and offensively, nearly half of Wyoming's total yards came on two running plays when the Tigers' defense completely broke down.
The entire crowd in Laramie rushed the field after the game on Saturday, so it's evident that this win mattered to the Wyoming program. Now the Cowboys head on the road to play a Bobcats team that might be getting overlooked. My projection is +4.6, so I would grab anything +7 or better.
ATS pick: Texas State +7
Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4) at Colorado Buffaloes
Connelly: Nebraska had three return scores last week and still missed the cover by 22 points against South Alabama. Now the Huskers have to face a team that handled its business against a better team in rival Colorado State.
We'll obviously learn far more about both teams this week, but it isn't hard to think that Colorado might have the advantage at home. The receiving trio of Laviska Shenault Jr., Tony Brown and K.D. Nixon shined last week, and while the Buffs' defense didn't, neither did Nebraska's offense. This is a burden-of-proof game for Adrian Martinez and the Huskers.
ATS pick: Colorado +4
SP+ projection: Colorado 42, Nebraska 40
Steele: Last year, Nebraska had a 565-395 yard edge, but QB Adrian Martinez was injured for part of the game, the Huskers were minus-three in turnovers, and they lost by five points. Colorado is 0-4 ATS as a home 'dog the past four years, and Scott Frost was 4-1 ATS on the road last season. Although Nebraska was outgained last week at home by South Alabama, the Huskers had a 281-209 yard edge up 14 points with 11 minutes left. Colorado led Colorado State 38-31 early in the fourth quarter and got a late fumble return touchdown for a 52-31 win in which the Buffaloes allowed 505 yards. Martinez was very disappointed with last week's effort and will have a big game as Nebraska gets revenge.
ATS pick: Nebraska -4
Score: Nebraska 35, Colorado 24
Kezirian: I think Colorado wins this game outright but I can't trust a defense that just surrendered 505 yards to Colorado State. However, I do believe in the Buffs' offense. They should be able to put up plenty of points against a Nebraska squad that was thoroughly unimpressive as a 36-point favorite over South Alabama. Are we sure the Huskers are that good? They certainly received a lot of hype this summer, and I was subscribing to most of it. We will learn a lot on Saturday, but for now I will back QB Steven Montez and CU to get theirs.
Pick: Colorado team total over 30.5 (at FanDuel)
UCF Knights (-10.5) at Florida Atlantic Owls
Connelly: I had to double-check to make sure that line was right. SP+ likes UCF by a touchdown more than the spread, and I think I agree. QBs Brandon Wimbush and Dillon Gabriel both looked strong in last week's easy UCF win over FAMU, and Florida Atlantic was gashed on seemingly every third play in the first quarter of a 45-21 loss to Ohio State.
Both SP+ and I assume that FAU will find some offensive success, but you'll probably be able to count the Owls' stops on one hand.
ATS pick: UCF -10.5
SP+ projection: UCF 42, FAU 25
San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins (-7.5)
Connelly: Should UCLA be a 7.5-point favorite over anyone at the moment, much less a team that defends like SDSU?
Granted, the Aztecs can't be trusted to score very much -- putting up a grand total of six points against Weber State was the wrong kind of statement for what is supposed to be a more spread-out SDSU offense. Still, this doesn't seem like much of a get-right game for a UCLA offense that managed only a 27% success rate and 3.5 yards per play against Cincinnati. Even if the Bruins win, how much distance can they build on the scoreboard?
ATS pick: SDSU +7.5
SP+ projection: UCLA 18.1, SDSU 17.9
Kezirian: I still believe in UCLA and refuse to overreact to its disappointing, season-opening loss at Cincinnati. The Bruins had a defensive touchdown nullified by a referee's errant whistle, and the defense played fairly well. The home opener is a much better situation. San Diego State barely beat Weber State (6-0), and the offense looked completely inept. I also have faith in Dorian Thompson-Robinson to play much better and in Chip Kelly to cover this number.
ATS pick: UCLA -7.5
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at No. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes (-20)
Steele: Rutgers has very quietly covered its past six games, and in their previous two Big Ten road games, the Scarlet Knights lost at Wisconsin by 14 points and 14-10 against Michigan State. Texas Tech transfer QB McLane Carter threw for 340 yards in their home win versus UMass last week, and the Scarlet Knights have one of the most underrated running back units in the country. Iowa has its rivalry game against Iowa State on deck and is just 8-14-1 as Big Ten home chalk since 2011.
ATS pick: Rutgers +20
Score: Iowa 34, Rutgers 20
Kezirian: Rutgers is often a punchline, but the program might be turning things around. It's a very low bar, but the team ended last season with a handful of respectable losses. The Scarlet Knights obviously demonstrated some offensive firepower last week in a 48-21 win against a terrible UMass team, and I think they can keep this within the number at Kinnick Stadium. The Hawkeyes also face Iowa State in the annual Cy-Hawk rivalry game next week, so this presents a classic look-ahead spot for Iowa.
ATS pick: Rutgers +20
Johnson: My projection for this game is 52.9, and I think there is a fair amount of upside to this Rutgers offense that we saw go off in Week 1. Regardless of the competition, this was a massive step in the right direction with QB McLane Carter throwing for 340 yards and two touchdowns to go with RB Isaih Pacheco's 156 yards and four touchdowns. Rutgers ended the game on a 41-0 run, and if it weren't for a couple of end zone interceptions by Carter, the Knights would have put up even more points in the contest.
Iowa's defense is clearly superior, but the Hawkeyes' offense is projected to score more points than UMass would anyway (and Rutgers showed weaknesses on that side of the ball in the first half). I'm trusting my numbers and buying low on a Rutgers offense that I believe will be much improved this season.
Pick: Over 50.5
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Florida International Panthers (-7)
Steele: Last season, Florida International rolled to a 35-3 lead on the road against Western Kentucky and won 38-17. FIU is coming off a 42-14 loss to Tulane last week, but this is its home opener, and coach Butch Davis is 5-1 ATS off a loss when facing an FBS foe. This season is Year 1 at WKU for Tyson Helton, and it figures to be a rebuilding year. I had FIU as a 15-point favorite before the season, so there is value here for me.
ATS pick: FIU -7
Score: FIU 37, Western Kentucky 22
Liberty Flames at Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-13)
Steele: This is a matchup game for me. Louisiana stood toe-to-toe with a strong Mississippi State team last week and will be excited for its home opener with only an FCS foe on deck. Liberty just had its home opener and was shut out 24-0 by Syracuse. Last season, Liberty was 5-1 at home but 1-5 on the road straight up. Also last season, Liberty allowed 222 yards per game on the ground and 5.2 yards per carry. Louisiana has an experienced offensive line as well as my No. 8 set of running backs, will have great success running the ball and will control the game.
ATS pick: Louisiana -13
Score: Louisiana 45, Liberty 23
Miami Hurricanes (-4) at North Carolina Tar Heels
Steele: North Carolina was an 11-point underdog in Charlotte last week and trailed South Carolina 20-9 in the fourth quarter but rallied for a 24-20 upset win. The Tar Heels figure to be in a letdown spot, and the result gives us some line value here. Miami led No. 8 Florida in the fourth quarter and had a 20-17 first-down edge but came up four points short. The Hurricanes are off a bye and have Bethune-Cookman on deck. Miami has a significant edge on defense and special teams, as well as a situational edge.
ATS pick: Miami -4
Score: Miami 27, North Carolina 17
California Golden Bears at No. 14 Washington Huskies (-14)
Steele: Last year, California upset Washington at home 12-10, as the Huskies managed just 250 yards and 13 first downs. Cal has a top-10 defense led by my No. 2 secondary and No. 8 set of linebackers. Cal has covered five in a row as an away dog, with two upsets and every loss by six points or fewer. Washington tends to be overpriced at home and is 1-7 ATS in its past eight as the Pac-12 favorite.
ATS pick: California +14
Score: Washington 23, California 16
Illinois Fighting Illini (-20) at UConn Huskies
Kezirian: I am looking to fade UConn whenever possible. The program has shown no signs of becoming respectable, notching more than three wins just once in the past six years. The Huskies matched last season's win total with an unimpressive 24-21 victory against FCS foe Wagner last week. By no means is Illinois a powerhouse, but Lovie Smith has added speed at several key positions, and I am a fan of quarterback Brandon Peters. The Illini lit up Akron 42-3 last week as 17-point favorites and should have similar ease with UConn. It's unfortunate that RB Mike Epstein is done for the season with an injury, but Illinois still feels like the right side.
ATS pick: Illinois -20
LSU Tigers (-5.5) at Texas Longhorns
Kezirian: Given that the Tigers were underdogs at one point this summer, this line has moved a ton. That's why it's tough to hand in our picks on Wednesday evenings. That said, now that I have seen LSU show offensive creativity rather than just provide lip service on future changes, I'll back the Tigers. I realize Tom Herman is a monster as an underdog (13-2-1 ATS) but LSU has more experience and can finally score enough to cover these spreads. I'll cautiously back LSU.
ATS pick: LSU -5.5
Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany Lions (-30)
Kezirian: ESPN's FPI now favors the Nittany Lions to win the Big Ten East (over Michigan and Ohio State). I'm not ready to go there, but I was encouraged by their offensive prowess in a 79-7 opening win over Idaho. This is also a fade of Buffalo, which somehow received only 69 passing yards from its quarterback. This all has the makings of a beatdown at Happy Valley.
ATS pick: Penn State -30