Best Bets For 14 Week 1 College Football Games 🏈
Best bets for 14 Week 1 college football games
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape
Here are the best bets for the first full week of the college football season:
Thursday's games
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-35.5)
8 p.m. ET, Thursday (ACCN)
Kezirian: This is a smaller play, but I have a feeling Clemson will remind us of Alabama last season when the Tide started 10-0 against the spread in the first half. Much like Bama with Tua Tagovailoa, the Tigers now have an elite quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, and that will allow the offense to score at will. Given Clemson will be a huge favorite in all its games, I don't want to mess around with the second unit and backdoor covers; I will try to take advantage of first-half spreads that are commensurate with game lines. One particular advantage of this method is that first-half lines don't account for backups like the game lines does.
This is a big number, but the Yellow Jackets should experience severe growing pains. With new coach Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech is transitioning from the option to a pro-style offense, yet most personnel is from the previous regime. It could get ugly early against the defending champs.
ATS pick: Clemson first half -23
Texas State Bobcats at No. 12 Texas A&M Aggies (-33.5)
8:30 p.m. ET, Thursday (ESPN SEC Network)
Johnson: I'm banking on Texas State's 115th-ranked offense in 2018 to score. Why? New head coach and quarterback whisperer Jake Spavital and his offensive innovator, Bob Stitt. Spavital has worked in Kliff Kingsbury and Dana Holgorsen offenses in the past, and this pairing is a match made in heaven for an offense that struggled as mightily as the Bobcats last season.
It's clear that Texas A&M outclasses Texas State in this matchup (although I think 33.5 points is a few too many). In fact, when Jimbo Fisher's first Aggies squad faced smaller schools in 2018, they totaled at least 58 points in each contest. Fisher won't let up, and with the tempo and Air-Raid approach the Texas State offense will bring to the table, I anticipate we see more plays for both squads than the market currently projects. This points total should get there if the Bobcats can get to 13 or 14 points, and I'm absolutely buying that they can.
Pick: over 56.5
Projection: 61.3 points
Friday's games
Rice Owls at Army Black Knights (-22.5)
6 p.m. ET, Friday (CBSSN)
Kezirian: Rice may be the worst team in all of college football. Coach Mike Bloomgren enters his second season and insists on a smash-mouth offense that does not translate well into the current landscape of college football. The Owls simply don't have the horses. Meanwhile, Army is coming off an 11-win season and could be in the mix for a New Year's Six appearance. I'm not worried that Rice had all summer to prepare for Army's unique triple-option offense. The Black Knights should still have a field day on the ground. I have faith in a service academy's work ethic and focus to avoid any flat spot usually accompanying a weak opponent.
ATS pick: Army -22.5
No. 19 Wisconsin Badgers (-12.5) at South Florida Bulls
7 p.m. ET, Friday (ESPN)
Johnson: I'm generally more bullish on the Badgers this season than the current market (I've bet them over eight wins and to win the Big Ten at 15-1), but I also have concerns for a South Florida team that started the 2018 season 7-0 but subsequently dropped its next six games once they faced reputable competition (Houston, Tulane, Cincinnati, Temple, UCF and Marshall). The Bulls lost each of these games by double-digits and by an average of 19.2 points.
Wisconsin is going to win the battle in the trenches on both sides, and Heisman hopeful RB Jonathan Taylor should have a field day against a rush defense that gave up 5.2 yards per carry this past season (ranked 112th nationally -- and the USF defense didn't face anybody nearly as physical as the Badgers). It's surprising to have the opportunity to buy low on the Big Ten West's best program of the past decade. I know that Nebraska and Minnesota are getting plenty of hype, but Paul Chryst's bounce-back season begins with a comfortable win in Week 1.
ATS pick: Wisconsin -12.5
Projection: Wisconsin by 16
Steele: Last year South Florida, despite a 7-0 start and a No. 21 ranking at one point, was one of the most flawed teams in college football. The Bulls faced six bowl teams down the stretch and went 0-6, losing by an average of 19 points per game. This year they are a much stronger team, led by quarterback Blake Barnett (Alabama transfer) and running back Jordan Cronkrite (Florida transfer).
The Bulls are also at home in the heat and humidity of Florida. Wisconsin did lose the majority of its offensive line and Alex Hornibrook at quarterback (though that may be an upgrade), but has a solid offensive line and returns a Heisman candidate in Taylor. The Badgers figure to come in the season underrated due to their schedule. Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in regular-season nonconference games, while South Florida is 14-9 ATS at home. I will call for the Bulls to keep this game closer than expected.
ATS pick: South Florida +12.5
Score: Wisconsin 30, South Florida 24
Connelly: This is the first test of SP+'s unwavering love of Wisconsin. The Badgers finished a disappointing 8-5 last year but are still projected a healthy 14th in my ratings. If they're truly a top-15 caliber team, they beat the Bulls by far more than 12 points.
ATS pick: Wisconsin -12.5
SP+ projection: Wisconsin 40, USF 23. I wouldn't be surprised if the game was not quite that high-scoring, but the Badgers have a lot to offer offensively if QB Jack Coan can get it going.
UMass Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-15.5)
7:15 p.m. ET, Friday (BTN)
Steele: Rutgers has lost 11 straight games (and 14 of 15), so the Scarlet Knights need to secure some wins in 2019. Head coach Chris Ash is 3-2 as a home favorite and is entering a pivotal fourth season, coming off a 1-11 campaign. Last year, the Scarlet Knights opened as a home favorite against Texas State and rolled to a 35-7 victory ... their only one all season. They were minus-13 in turnovers in 2018, but I believe this year's squad will more resemble the 4-8 team of 2017.
The Scarlet Knights have 13 starters back, while UMass not only has a new head coach but returns just eight starters (No. 130 on my experience chart). It may seem like a lot of points to lay with Rutgers, but both times Ash was a double-digit favorite in the past two years, he covered (by an average of 17.5 points per game).
ATS pick: Rutgers -15.5
Score: Rutgers 41, UMass 17
Kezirian: This line has been bet up, and I agree with the line move. Rutgers is far from a powerhouse, but the Scarlet Knights did nearly upset Michigan State and Northwestern last year. Meanwhile, the Minutemen are among the nation's worst teams. It's never easy to lay this kind of lumber with a team like Rutgers, but cellar-dweller teams tend to take advantage of golden opportunities to notch a feel-good win. The Scarlet Knights opened last season with a 35-7 win over Texas State, and I expect a similar showing on Friday.
ATS pick: Rutgers -15.5
Saturday's games
South Alabama Jaguars at No. 24 Nebraska Cornhuskers (-36.5)
Noon ET, Saturday (ESPN)
Connelly: Here comes the first test of the Nebraska hype. SP+ and other analytics systems haven't been buying the Huskers hype all that much, and while they're likely to cruise in this one -- barring a miraculous second-year leap, Steve Campbell's Jaguars probably won't be able to offer a ton of resistance -- 36.5 points is an awfully high bar.
ATS pick: South Alabama +36.5
SP+ projection: Nebraska 47, South Alabama 16. NU hasn't beaten a team by more than 36.5 points since 2015 (a 39-point win, also over South Alabama). Hmm. Eh, stick with the Jags anyway.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (-20) vs. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Noon ET, Saturday (ESPNU)
Johnson: I'm taking a shot on the moneyline in a matchup that I believe is extremely high variance (this is a good thing). Louisiana head coach Billy Napier took over in 2018 in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Ragin' Cajuns. Napier coached as an assistant under both Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney, and it certainly looks like it is paying off. Louisiana won the Sun Belt West division and made a bowl appearance. One of my favorite notes about Napier was his ability to bring in 22 three-star signees in the 2019 recruiting class. In the previous three seasons, ULL only averaged 5.3 three-star recruits.
With 15 total returning starters and a plethora of depth and young talent, the Ragin' Cajuns could make an incredible leap in Napier's second season (I even bet them 12-1 to win the Sun Belt). In Week 1 they face a Mississippi State team that ranked 11th in defensive efficiency in 2018 but needs to replace eight starters. The Bulldogs also need to figure out their new quarterback situation and if any of the current receivers can be relied on as playmakers (not a single receiver eclipsed 440 yards last year).
While I do think Louisiana covers the +21 to +20 numbers that are available in the market, I think the wide distribution of results in this particular matchup provides us a bigger edge playing the moneyline at 8-1. Just a few years ago after quarterback Dak Prescott moved on to the NFL, the Bulldogs were 35-point home favorites to South Alabama in their season opener. They lost the game outright. Maybe we see a similar overhaul, and combined with the upside I believe this ULL team provides, I'm taking a shot.
Note: I bet the over in this matchup as well at 57.5 (my projection is 63.0). The current market is now sitting 59.5 to 60.5, but I wanted to make a note that my buy point for an over bet is at 59 or better. Keep an eye out for it this week.
Play: ULL +800
Projection: ULL +567
Georgia Southern Eagles at No. 6 LSU Tigers (-27.5)
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPNU)
Johnson: I've gone on and on all summer about my favorite coaching hire of the offseason: LSU's new passing game coordinator, Joe Brady. LSU stole him from the New Orleans Saints to implement elements of the Saints' passing attack into the Tigers' playbook while also incorporating run-pass option packages for senior quarterback Joe Burrow. Why is this important? Burrow transferred to LSU last season from Ohio State, where he was recruited by Urban Meyer to run a similar offense. Burrow also ran the run-pass option in high school from 2013 to 2015. Considering past LSU pro-style offenses have been fairly mundane, the upside for the Tigers this season in this situation is massive -- and they are already rated my fourth-best team in the country.
While the Georgia Southern option attack worked in the Sun Belt in 2018, we can't expect much from it against an LSU defense that has had the entire offseason to prepare and study it. People will point to the Week 2 look-ahead matchup against Texas in Austin (LSU will win this, by the way), but Ed Orgeron has made multiple statements about how excited they are to unleash the new and improved offense. My projections say there is value on LSU at -27.5 anyway, so I'm trusting the numbers and going with it.
ATS pick: LSU -27.5
Projection: LSU -31.5
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at No. 10 Texas Longhorns (-20.5)
8 p.m. ET, Saturday (Longhorn Network)
Johnson: It's no secret at this point that the media -- and the market -- absolutely love the Longhorns this season. Consequently, Texas season win totals this summer were lined 9.5-9 across the country. The under is my favorite season win total bet of the year. It's no surprise that I think the Week 1 spread against Louisiana Tech is inflated.
The Longhorns gave up 5.6 yards per play (YPP) last season while only gaining 5.5 YPP offensively. It's hard to win games when a team is giving up more yards to its opponent every time it lines up to run a play. So how did Texas win nine regular-season games in 2018? The Longhorns were 7-3 in one-score games. We know that over time, a team's record in close games is expected to regress to .500. The defense ranked outside the top 50 in efficiency, and the Longhorns lose their entire front seven and both starting cornerbacks entering 2019.
With the Longhorns' national "prove ourselves" game in Austin in Week 2 against LSU, the potential look-ahead spot is at least worth noting. Texas has lost its first two season openers under Tom Herman as big favorites against Maryland, and Louisiana Tech certainly is no pushover. In fact, Herman is 14-22-2 ATS (39 percent) as a favorite, and the Bulldogs are on a 14-4-1 ATS run (78 percent) as an underdog under Skip Holtz. The Tech program is one of the most stable in college football. I'm happy to bet against Texas winning this game by three touchdowns or more.
ATS pick: Louisiana Tech +20.5
Projection: Louisiana Tech +17
Steele: Holtz is a solid 14-4-1 ATS as an away underdog the past five years, while Texas has opened the season with upset losses to Maryland each of the past two seasons. The Longhorns also barely beat Tulsa (28-21) last season at home a week before a marquee home game against USC. This season, Texas has a Week 2 marquee home game against LSU.
Herman is one of the premier 'dog coaches in the game, but he is only 6-15-1 as a home favorite. Texas has the talent edge on offense, defense and special teams, but the situation favors Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are also the more experienced team (No. 28 on my experience chart vs. No. 92 for Texas) and have a veteran starting QB in J'Mar Smith. I think they keep this within the number.
ATS pick: Louisiana Tech +20.5
Score: Texas 34, Louisiana Tech 21
No. 11 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 16 Auburn Tigers (-3.5)
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC)
Connelly: SP+ likes Auburn a bit more than other systems, and one potential cause -- besides a solid recent history -- is that I included the return of receivers Will Hastings and Eli Stove (both of whom were injured in 2018) into the returning production equation. Meanwhile, it didn't like Oregon last year as much as others. The Ducks were not very efficient offensively and had to catch back up to the chains more than you're typically allowed to against Auburn.
SP+ projection: Auburn 33, Oregon 23. I'd be shocked if the point total gets that high; something like 24-16 wouldn't surprise me.
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-22) at Vanderbilt Commodores
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (SEC Network)
Kezirian: For all the talk of Alabama's and Clemson's talented rosters, the Bulldogs also share space in that elite class. They are better at nearly every position than Vanderbilt, and Kirby Smart has demonstrated a willingness to light up the scoreboard. The Dawgs averaged 41 points per game last year in the regular season, thanks to Jake Fromm's growth at quarterback. Meanwhile, the Commodores lose a QB in Kyle Shurmur who set various school passing records. Derek Mason has yet to announce a starter, but it figures to be graduate transfer Riley Neal. The Ball State product is competent and certainly has a valuable weapon in RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn, but he's not facing a MAC defense anymore. These are just two teams on different levels, and Georgia should have more fans in attendance.
ATS pick: Georgia -22
New Mexico State Aggies at No. 23 Washington State Cougars (-31.5)
10 p.m. ET, Saturday (Pac-12)
Steele: New Mexico State reached a bowl game two years ago and could be close to the same caliber this year, led by QB Josh Adkins, RB Jason Huntleyand a much-improved defense. Washington State went the transfer route again at quarterback, bringing in Gage Gubrud from Eastern Washington, but senior Anthony Gordon (five career pass attempts at WSU) beat him out for the job. The Cougars also move up from No. 122 on my experience chart to No. 70.
Washington State is 8-11 ATS versus nonconference teams the past five years and is a slow-starting team, dropping its past four home openers against the number, including two outright upsets by FCS teams. I will take the big spread here.
ATS pick: New Mexico State +31.5
Score: Washington State 42, New Mexico State 20
Sunday's games
Houston Cougars at No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners (-23)
7:30 p.m. ET, Sunday (ABC)
Johnson: This is ultimately a numbers play for me with the discrepancy between my projection and the market, but I do think the angles and narratives surrounding both programs offer an upside to our position as well.
Let's start with Houston quarterback D'Eriq King. King scored 50 touchdowns this past season in Kendal Briles' offense. Briles has since moved on to Florida State, and while the eye test over the years had told me that his teams' offenses drop off considerably after he leaves a program, I was curious how drastic it actually was.
In 2015, when Briles was at Baylor, the Bears ranked No. 1 in the country in total offense; in 2016 under Briles, they ranked sixth. Briles left for Florida Atlantic in 2017, and the Baylor offense plummeted to 59th. FAU, however, skyrocketed from 74th in total offense to ninth that season with Briles on staff. Houston made a similar jump this past season when Briles arrived, finishing seventh in total offense (40th the year prior). Even with Dana Holgorsen taking over in Houston, it's going to be extremely difficult to replicate the offensive production the Cougars and King showed in 2018.
On the other side of the football we have a Sooners team that projects to be less efficient offensively and more efficient defensively. Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts takes over under center for OU, and I anticipate Lincoln Riley to rely on the rushing attack and keep the playbook fairly vanilla as he eases Hurts into the new offense (we can expect the Sooners to win this game with relative ease either way). Newly hired defensive coordinator Alex Grinch takes over a defense that ultimately held Oklahoma back these past two years from contending on the same level as Georgia and Alabama. Grinch made extremely impactful adjustments when he took over Mike Leach's defense for Washington State a few years ago, and I expect we see more of the same in Norman.
The numbers and the narratives line up in this one, and I bet the under.
Play: Under 82.5
Projection: 77.8
Monday's games
No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-19) at Louisville Cardinals
Kezirian: This could be a tricky game for the Irish. Louisville notched just two wins in 2018 and essentially quit on Bobby Petrino. Enter Scott Satterfield from Appalachian State; the players will likely treat this opener like their biggest game. Although it returns QB Ian Book, Notre Dame lost some key weapons from last year's squad that reached the playoff. Some sharp money moved this number down from 20, but I still think the line is high enough for me to get involved on Louisville.
ATS pick: Louisville +19
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape
Here are the best bets for the first full week of the college football season:
Thursday's games
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-35.5)
8 p.m. ET, Thursday (ACCN)
Kezirian: This is a smaller play, but I have a feeling Clemson will remind us of Alabama last season when the Tide started 10-0 against the spread in the first half. Much like Bama with Tua Tagovailoa, the Tigers now have an elite quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, and that will allow the offense to score at will. Given Clemson will be a huge favorite in all its games, I don't want to mess around with the second unit and backdoor covers; I will try to take advantage of first-half spreads that are commensurate with game lines. One particular advantage of this method is that first-half lines don't account for backups like the game lines does.
This is a big number, but the Yellow Jackets should experience severe growing pains. With new coach Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech is transitioning from the option to a pro-style offense, yet most personnel is from the previous regime. It could get ugly early against the defending champs.
ATS pick: Clemson first half -23
Texas State Bobcats at No. 12 Texas A&M Aggies (-33.5)
8:30 p.m. ET, Thursday (ESPN SEC Network)
Johnson: I'm banking on Texas State's 115th-ranked offense in 2018 to score. Why? New head coach and quarterback whisperer Jake Spavital and his offensive innovator, Bob Stitt. Spavital has worked in Kliff Kingsbury and Dana Holgorsen offenses in the past, and this pairing is a match made in heaven for an offense that struggled as mightily as the Bobcats last season.
It's clear that Texas A&M outclasses Texas State in this matchup (although I think 33.5 points is a few too many). In fact, when Jimbo Fisher's first Aggies squad faced smaller schools in 2018, they totaled at least 58 points in each contest. Fisher won't let up, and with the tempo and Air-Raid approach the Texas State offense will bring to the table, I anticipate we see more plays for both squads than the market currently projects. This points total should get there if the Bobcats can get to 13 or 14 points, and I'm absolutely buying that they can.
Pick: over 56.5
Projection: 61.3 points
Friday's games
Rice Owls at Army Black Knights (-22.5)
6 p.m. ET, Friday (CBSSN)
Kezirian: Rice may be the worst team in all of college football. Coach Mike Bloomgren enters his second season and insists on a smash-mouth offense that does not translate well into the current landscape of college football. The Owls simply don't have the horses. Meanwhile, Army is coming off an 11-win season and could be in the mix for a New Year's Six appearance. I'm not worried that Rice had all summer to prepare for Army's unique triple-option offense. The Black Knights should still have a field day on the ground. I have faith in a service academy's work ethic and focus to avoid any flat spot usually accompanying a weak opponent.
ATS pick: Army -22.5
No. 19 Wisconsin Badgers (-12.5) at South Florida Bulls
7 p.m. ET, Friday (ESPN)
Johnson: I'm generally more bullish on the Badgers this season than the current market (I've bet them over eight wins and to win the Big Ten at 15-1), but I also have concerns for a South Florida team that started the 2018 season 7-0 but subsequently dropped its next six games once they faced reputable competition (Houston, Tulane, Cincinnati, Temple, UCF and Marshall). The Bulls lost each of these games by double-digits and by an average of 19.2 points.
Wisconsin is going to win the battle in the trenches on both sides, and Heisman hopeful RB Jonathan Taylor should have a field day against a rush defense that gave up 5.2 yards per carry this past season (ranked 112th nationally -- and the USF defense didn't face anybody nearly as physical as the Badgers). It's surprising to have the opportunity to buy low on the Big Ten West's best program of the past decade. I know that Nebraska and Minnesota are getting plenty of hype, but Paul Chryst's bounce-back season begins with a comfortable win in Week 1.
ATS pick: Wisconsin -12.5
Projection: Wisconsin by 16
Steele: Last year South Florida, despite a 7-0 start and a No. 21 ranking at one point, was one of the most flawed teams in college football. The Bulls faced six bowl teams down the stretch and went 0-6, losing by an average of 19 points per game. This year they are a much stronger team, led by quarterback Blake Barnett (Alabama transfer) and running back Jordan Cronkrite (Florida transfer).
The Bulls are also at home in the heat and humidity of Florida. Wisconsin did lose the majority of its offensive line and Alex Hornibrook at quarterback (though that may be an upgrade), but has a solid offensive line and returns a Heisman candidate in Taylor. The Badgers figure to come in the season underrated due to their schedule. Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in regular-season nonconference games, while South Florida is 14-9 ATS at home. I will call for the Bulls to keep this game closer than expected.
ATS pick: South Florida +12.5
Score: Wisconsin 30, South Florida 24
Connelly: This is the first test of SP+'s unwavering love of Wisconsin. The Badgers finished a disappointing 8-5 last year but are still projected a healthy 14th in my ratings. If they're truly a top-15 caliber team, they beat the Bulls by far more than 12 points.
ATS pick: Wisconsin -12.5
SP+ projection: Wisconsin 40, USF 23. I wouldn't be surprised if the game was not quite that high-scoring, but the Badgers have a lot to offer offensively if QB Jack Coan can get it going.
UMass Minutemen at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-15.5)
7:15 p.m. ET, Friday (BTN)
Steele: Rutgers has lost 11 straight games (and 14 of 15), so the Scarlet Knights need to secure some wins in 2019. Head coach Chris Ash is 3-2 as a home favorite and is entering a pivotal fourth season, coming off a 1-11 campaign. Last year, the Scarlet Knights opened as a home favorite against Texas State and rolled to a 35-7 victory ... their only one all season. They were minus-13 in turnovers in 2018, but I believe this year's squad will more resemble the 4-8 team of 2017.
The Scarlet Knights have 13 starters back, while UMass not only has a new head coach but returns just eight starters (No. 130 on my experience chart). It may seem like a lot of points to lay with Rutgers, but both times Ash was a double-digit favorite in the past two years, he covered (by an average of 17.5 points per game).
ATS pick: Rutgers -15.5
Score: Rutgers 41, UMass 17
Kezirian: This line has been bet up, and I agree with the line move. Rutgers is far from a powerhouse, but the Scarlet Knights did nearly upset Michigan State and Northwestern last year. Meanwhile, the Minutemen are among the nation's worst teams. It's never easy to lay this kind of lumber with a team like Rutgers, but cellar-dweller teams tend to take advantage of golden opportunities to notch a feel-good win. The Scarlet Knights opened last season with a 35-7 win over Texas State, and I expect a similar showing on Friday.
ATS pick: Rutgers -15.5
Saturday's games
South Alabama Jaguars at No. 24 Nebraska Cornhuskers (-36.5)
Noon ET, Saturday (ESPN)
Connelly: Here comes the first test of the Nebraska hype. SP+ and other analytics systems haven't been buying the Huskers hype all that much, and while they're likely to cruise in this one -- barring a miraculous second-year leap, Steve Campbell's Jaguars probably won't be able to offer a ton of resistance -- 36.5 points is an awfully high bar.
ATS pick: South Alabama +36.5
SP+ projection: Nebraska 47, South Alabama 16. NU hasn't beaten a team by more than 36.5 points since 2015 (a 39-point win, also over South Alabama). Hmm. Eh, stick with the Jags anyway.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (-20) vs. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Noon ET, Saturday (ESPNU)
Johnson: I'm taking a shot on the moneyline in a matchup that I believe is extremely high variance (this is a good thing). Louisiana head coach Billy Napier took over in 2018 in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Ragin' Cajuns. Napier coached as an assistant under both Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney, and it certainly looks like it is paying off. Louisiana won the Sun Belt West division and made a bowl appearance. One of my favorite notes about Napier was his ability to bring in 22 three-star signees in the 2019 recruiting class. In the previous three seasons, ULL only averaged 5.3 three-star recruits.
With 15 total returning starters and a plethora of depth and young talent, the Ragin' Cajuns could make an incredible leap in Napier's second season (I even bet them 12-1 to win the Sun Belt). In Week 1 they face a Mississippi State team that ranked 11th in defensive efficiency in 2018 but needs to replace eight starters. The Bulldogs also need to figure out their new quarterback situation and if any of the current receivers can be relied on as playmakers (not a single receiver eclipsed 440 yards last year).
While I do think Louisiana covers the +21 to +20 numbers that are available in the market, I think the wide distribution of results in this particular matchup provides us a bigger edge playing the moneyline at 8-1. Just a few years ago after quarterback Dak Prescott moved on to the NFL, the Bulldogs were 35-point home favorites to South Alabama in their season opener. They lost the game outright. Maybe we see a similar overhaul, and combined with the upside I believe this ULL team provides, I'm taking a shot.
Note: I bet the over in this matchup as well at 57.5 (my projection is 63.0). The current market is now sitting 59.5 to 60.5, but I wanted to make a note that my buy point for an over bet is at 59 or better. Keep an eye out for it this week.
Play: ULL +800
Projection: ULL +567
Georgia Southern Eagles at No. 6 LSU Tigers (-27.5)
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPNU)
Johnson: I've gone on and on all summer about my favorite coaching hire of the offseason: LSU's new passing game coordinator, Joe Brady. LSU stole him from the New Orleans Saints to implement elements of the Saints' passing attack into the Tigers' playbook while also incorporating run-pass option packages for senior quarterback Joe Burrow. Why is this important? Burrow transferred to LSU last season from Ohio State, where he was recruited by Urban Meyer to run a similar offense. Burrow also ran the run-pass option in high school from 2013 to 2015. Considering past LSU pro-style offenses have been fairly mundane, the upside for the Tigers this season in this situation is massive -- and they are already rated my fourth-best team in the country.
While the Georgia Southern option attack worked in the Sun Belt in 2018, we can't expect much from it against an LSU defense that has had the entire offseason to prepare and study it. People will point to the Week 2 look-ahead matchup against Texas in Austin (LSU will win this, by the way), but Ed Orgeron has made multiple statements about how excited they are to unleash the new and improved offense. My projections say there is value on LSU at -27.5 anyway, so I'm trusting the numbers and going with it.
ATS pick: LSU -27.5
Projection: LSU -31.5
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at No. 10 Texas Longhorns (-20.5)
8 p.m. ET, Saturday (Longhorn Network)
Johnson: It's no secret at this point that the media -- and the market -- absolutely love the Longhorns this season. Consequently, Texas season win totals this summer were lined 9.5-9 across the country. The under is my favorite season win total bet of the year. It's no surprise that I think the Week 1 spread against Louisiana Tech is inflated.
The Longhorns gave up 5.6 yards per play (YPP) last season while only gaining 5.5 YPP offensively. It's hard to win games when a team is giving up more yards to its opponent every time it lines up to run a play. So how did Texas win nine regular-season games in 2018? The Longhorns were 7-3 in one-score games. We know that over time, a team's record in close games is expected to regress to .500. The defense ranked outside the top 50 in efficiency, and the Longhorns lose their entire front seven and both starting cornerbacks entering 2019.
With the Longhorns' national "prove ourselves" game in Austin in Week 2 against LSU, the potential look-ahead spot is at least worth noting. Texas has lost its first two season openers under Tom Herman as big favorites against Maryland, and Louisiana Tech certainly is no pushover. In fact, Herman is 14-22-2 ATS (39 percent) as a favorite, and the Bulldogs are on a 14-4-1 ATS run (78 percent) as an underdog under Skip Holtz. The Tech program is one of the most stable in college football. I'm happy to bet against Texas winning this game by three touchdowns or more.
ATS pick: Louisiana Tech +20.5
Projection: Louisiana Tech +17
Steele: Holtz is a solid 14-4-1 ATS as an away underdog the past five years, while Texas has opened the season with upset losses to Maryland each of the past two seasons. The Longhorns also barely beat Tulsa (28-21) last season at home a week before a marquee home game against USC. This season, Texas has a Week 2 marquee home game against LSU.
Herman is one of the premier 'dog coaches in the game, but he is only 6-15-1 as a home favorite. Texas has the talent edge on offense, defense and special teams, but the situation favors Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are also the more experienced team (No. 28 on my experience chart vs. No. 92 for Texas) and have a veteran starting QB in J'Mar Smith. I think they keep this within the number.
ATS pick: Louisiana Tech +20.5
Score: Texas 34, Louisiana Tech 21
No. 11 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 16 Auburn Tigers (-3.5)
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC)
Connelly: SP+ likes Auburn a bit more than other systems, and one potential cause -- besides a solid recent history -- is that I included the return of receivers Will Hastings and Eli Stove (both of whom were injured in 2018) into the returning production equation. Meanwhile, it didn't like Oregon last year as much as others. The Ducks were not very efficient offensively and had to catch back up to the chains more than you're typically allowed to against Auburn.
SP+ projection: Auburn 33, Oregon 23. I'd be shocked if the point total gets that high; something like 24-16 wouldn't surprise me.
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-22) at Vanderbilt Commodores
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (SEC Network)
Kezirian: For all the talk of Alabama's and Clemson's talented rosters, the Bulldogs also share space in that elite class. They are better at nearly every position than Vanderbilt, and Kirby Smart has demonstrated a willingness to light up the scoreboard. The Dawgs averaged 41 points per game last year in the regular season, thanks to Jake Fromm's growth at quarterback. Meanwhile, the Commodores lose a QB in Kyle Shurmur who set various school passing records. Derek Mason has yet to announce a starter, but it figures to be graduate transfer Riley Neal. The Ball State product is competent and certainly has a valuable weapon in RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn, but he's not facing a MAC defense anymore. These are just two teams on different levels, and Georgia should have more fans in attendance.
ATS pick: Georgia -22
New Mexico State Aggies at No. 23 Washington State Cougars (-31.5)
10 p.m. ET, Saturday (Pac-12)
Steele: New Mexico State reached a bowl game two years ago and could be close to the same caliber this year, led by QB Josh Adkins, RB Jason Huntleyand a much-improved defense. Washington State went the transfer route again at quarterback, bringing in Gage Gubrud from Eastern Washington, but senior Anthony Gordon (five career pass attempts at WSU) beat him out for the job. The Cougars also move up from No. 122 on my experience chart to No. 70.
Washington State is 8-11 ATS versus nonconference teams the past five years and is a slow-starting team, dropping its past four home openers against the number, including two outright upsets by FCS teams. I will take the big spread here.
ATS pick: New Mexico State +31.5
Score: Washington State 42, New Mexico State 20
Sunday's games
Houston Cougars at No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners (-23)
7:30 p.m. ET, Sunday (ABC)
Johnson: This is ultimately a numbers play for me with the discrepancy between my projection and the market, but I do think the angles and narratives surrounding both programs offer an upside to our position as well.
Let's start with Houston quarterback D'Eriq King. King scored 50 touchdowns this past season in Kendal Briles' offense. Briles has since moved on to Florida State, and while the eye test over the years had told me that his teams' offenses drop off considerably after he leaves a program, I was curious how drastic it actually was.
In 2015, when Briles was at Baylor, the Bears ranked No. 1 in the country in total offense; in 2016 under Briles, they ranked sixth. Briles left for Florida Atlantic in 2017, and the Baylor offense plummeted to 59th. FAU, however, skyrocketed from 74th in total offense to ninth that season with Briles on staff. Houston made a similar jump this past season when Briles arrived, finishing seventh in total offense (40th the year prior). Even with Dana Holgorsen taking over in Houston, it's going to be extremely difficult to replicate the offensive production the Cougars and King showed in 2018.
On the other side of the football we have a Sooners team that projects to be less efficient offensively and more efficient defensively. Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts takes over under center for OU, and I anticipate Lincoln Riley to rely on the rushing attack and keep the playbook fairly vanilla as he eases Hurts into the new offense (we can expect the Sooners to win this game with relative ease either way). Newly hired defensive coordinator Alex Grinch takes over a defense that ultimately held Oklahoma back these past two years from contending on the same level as Georgia and Alabama. Grinch made extremely impactful adjustments when he took over Mike Leach's defense for Washington State a few years ago, and I expect we see more of the same in Norman.
The numbers and the narratives line up in this one, and I bet the under.
Play: Under 82.5
Projection: 77.8
Monday's games
No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-19) at Louisville Cardinals
Kezirian: This could be a tricky game for the Irish. Louisville notched just two wins in 2018 and essentially quit on Bobby Petrino. Enter Scott Satterfield from Appalachian State; the players will likely treat this opener like their biggest game. Although it returns QB Ian Book, Notre Dame lost some key weapons from last year's squad that reached the playoff. Some sharp money moved this number down from 20, but I still think the line is high enough for me to get involved on Louisville.
ATS pick: Louisville +19