Finding Betting Value In College Football Conference Title Futures

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Finding betting value in college football conference title futures

Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER

In the preseason, everyone focuses on odds to win the national title and over/under win totals for each team's season. There is also money to be made by using underdog picks to win each conference.

Most conferences seem like slam dunks with clear favorites. But every season, there are some surprise winners, and that is where the money is to be made. Over the past three seasons, eight of the 27 conference winners have been by teams that carried 6-1 or greater odds to win the title (30 percent).

Here are my top 12 long-shot picks to win their conference titles this season.

Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of August 2.

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AAC

Navy Midshipmen (8-1): The AAC West is up for grabs, and Navy hosts Memphis, which is working in a new quarterback, in Week 2. Navy is 18-6 in AAC play the past three years and could find itself in the AAC title game for the second time over that span.

ACC

Florida State Seminoles (7-1): The Seminoles won only six regular-season games last year, but they also had the ball on the Clemson side of the field with six minutes left in the fourth quarter, down just three points in Death Valley. They get Clemson at home this season and are much improved overall.

Boston College Eagles (50-1): The Eagles came to life in the second half of 2017 with the emergence of running back AJ Dillon. Dillon is back, and Boston College has my No. 6-rated offensive line and a top-20 defense, along with a veteran quarterback. The Eagles get Clemson at home on Nov. 10 and were tied in the fourth quarter at Death Valley a season ago.

Big Ten

Michigan State Spartans (10-1): The Spartans were the second-least experienced team in the country last season but jump up to No. 13 on my experience chart with 19 returning starters. They face only one team on the road that had a winning record last year (Penn State) and host both Ohio State and Michigan.

Big 12

TCU Horned Frogs (6-1): The Frogs have the Big 12's best defense. While they are young on the offensive line and at quarterback, head coach Gary Patterson develops both of those positions very well. The Horned Frogs also have my No. 3-rated special teams unit. The Big 12 is wide open this season.

Conference USA

UAB Blazers (15-1): This one is exciting. Bill Clark did wonders last season getting UAB to eight wins and has 16 returning starters. His Blazers are my pick to win the C-USA West Division. Running back Spencer Brown is a stud, and the defensive front seven is loaded with talent. UAB is the best value play of all of these teams.

MAC

Miami (OH) RedHawks (6-1): Miami was a preseason favorite to win the MAC East last year but had a disappointing season overall, finishing 5-7. Miami has 16 returning starters and is No. 6 on my experience chart. The RedHawks also had four net close losses and four net upsets last season. They get Ohio at home on Nov. 7, and a win there could put them in the MAC title game.

Mountain West

Utah State Aggies (8-1): Matt Wells had experienced teams in his first two seasons, and the Aggies went 13-3 in Mountain West play and got to the conference title game once. But the past three years, Wells has had inexperienced teams. This season? He has 18 returning starters and could have his best team yet. A berth in the Mountain West title game could be decided on Nov. 24 at Boise State.

Pac-12

Oregon Ducks (8-1): With Justin Herbert at quarterback last year, the Ducks averaged 52 points, managing only 15 points per game without him. He is back this season, and the Ducks get to face both Washington and Stanford at home in Autzen Stadium where they are 58-10 over the past 10 years.

Utah Utes (15-1): Utah does face a tougher schedule than USC, but it also hosts the Trojans on Oct. 20. Utah is the more veteran team and came up a two-point conversion short of beating a Sam Darnold-led USC team on the road last season.

SEC

Florida Gators (20-1): I have the Gators as my No. 1 most improved team in the country this season. They only have three true SEC road games with two of those coming against teams that combined to go 0-14 in SEC play when not playing each other. Florida will be a much more cohesive and confident team when it faces Georgia in Jacksonville and hosts South Carolina.

South Carolina Gamecocks (30-1): The Gamecocks were without their top running back in Rico Dowdle and top playmaker in Deebo Samuel for most of 2017. Both are back and join veteran quarterback Jake Bentley and a solid defense. South Carolina hosts Georgia in Week 2, and a win there would make the Gamecocks the front-runners in the SEC East.

Sun Belt

There's no real dark horse in the Sun Belt. I only want to use 12 plays total and have three conferences that I have selected two teams each from. I can only envision the Sun Belt winner coming from one of three teams: Arkansas State, Appalachian State or Troy. None of those have odds higher than 5-2.

Longer shots

While the above-listed teams are all worth a larger wager, here are a few extra teams that could surprise. A $10 wager here would net you $250 or more.

• Temple Owls to win the AAC (25-1): The Owls were a much better team in the second half of 2017.
  
  
  
• Iowa Hawkeyes to win the Big Ten at (30-1): The Hawkeyes have the schedule to surprise in the Big Ten West.
  
  
  
• Old Dominion Monarchs to win Conference USA (35-1): Bobby Wilder went 10-3 the last time he had a veteran team.
  
  
  
• Kansas State Wildcats to win Big 12 (35-1): Bill Snyder has a veteran squad, and the Big 12 is wide open this season.
  
  
  
• North Carolina Tar Heels to win ACC at (50-1): UNC avoids the top four teams from the Atlantic Division.