Early Bowl Game Leans
Not on these yet, but I had to go in and filter out the ones I felt good about. Can always go into further detail, but just a blurb or two for these, since I haven't really gone deep with any of them yet. And here they are:
Dollar General Bowl
Toledo - 7.5
Bigger mismatch than 7.5 points IMO. Toledo dominates, Appy weirdly struggled, and seems like they found their past mojo lately, but did it against shit teams. Will be high scoring, but Toledo should pull away at some point.
Independence Bowl
Florida State -14.5
Definitely not afraid of hooks in situations like this. FSU even now, without a coach, way more than 2 TDs better against a team whose only strength is Ito Smith. Nothing else SoMiss did this year impressed me.
Holiday Bowl
Michigan State +3
Wazzu not as scary as first thought. Big Ten a much stronger conference than the Pac 12 was this year. Wrong team favored.
Belk Bowl
Wake -3
Great coaching against a team that never bought into the system. Wake won't have to travel. Give me the -3.
Sun Bowl
NC St -6.5
ASU is coachless, and has never seen a front 7 like this. Long night ahead. Get it before it gets to -7.
Fiesta Bowl
Penn St -3
Love Coach Peterson, but I still think Browning is a fraud, he doesn't show up against better defenses, and although PSU's isn't great, it's better than he's used to seeing. His WRs won't be wide open like they normally are. UW has looked shaky in a few Pac 12 games, games they would have gotten destroyed in if they played most Big 10 teams. D-line not as good this year IMO, and it's made a difference.
Bowl games are a weird animal, I'm probably just going half units on most of these, since having a real edge on any of these is a lot tougher. Weird shit happens in Bowl games. Totals? Forget it, absolute coin flip.
What about you guys?
Dollar General Bowl
Toledo - 7.5
Bigger mismatch than 7.5 points IMO. Toledo dominates, Appy weirdly struggled, and seems like they found their past mojo lately, but did it against shit teams. Will be high scoring, but Toledo should pull away at some point.
Independence Bowl
Florida State -14.5
Definitely not afraid of hooks in situations like this. FSU even now, without a coach, way more than 2 TDs better against a team whose only strength is Ito Smith. Nothing else SoMiss did this year impressed me.
Holiday Bowl
Michigan State +3
Wazzu not as scary as first thought. Big Ten a much stronger conference than the Pac 12 was this year. Wrong team favored.
Belk Bowl
Wake -3
Great coaching against a team that never bought into the system. Wake won't have to travel. Give me the -3.
Sun Bowl
NC St -6.5
ASU is coachless, and has never seen a front 7 like this. Long night ahead. Get it before it gets to -7.
Fiesta Bowl
Penn St -3
Love Coach Peterson, but I still think Browning is a fraud, he doesn't show up against better defenses, and although PSU's isn't great, it's better than he's used to seeing. His WRs won't be wide open like they normally are. UW has looked shaky in a few Pac 12 games, games they would have gotten destroyed in if they played most Big 10 teams. D-line not as good this year IMO, and it's made a difference.
Bowl games are a weird animal, I'm probably just going half units on most of these, since having a real edge on any of these is a lot tougher. Weird shit happens in Bowl games. Totals? Forget it, absolute coin flip.
What about you guys?