power rating value....

[gojetsgomoxies]

i am posting this simply for info purposes............... i think that later in season that power rating spread picks are probably more of reverse value than positive value i.e. spreads are anchored too much to power ratings.

i assume that many of the power ratings (prediction machine) at the start of the season are mostly if not all based on last year's power ratings.

i will also note that especially later in the season that often large power rating values will just have to do with injuries i.e. assume lamar jackson just got injured. well he must be worth 5 to 7 points for louisville but power rating won't adjust for that.

anyway, here goes... strikes me it's alot of underdogs.. i eyeballed it for minimum 4 to 5 points of value based on mid-week line... bolded are the lines that are WAY OFF based on power ratings. i also put the opponent in brackets for these games)


georgia southern
CCS
App state
M O - very very hot last 6 games of last year.
Van
NCS - surprises me. i thought they might get overbet
ark state
temple (notre dame)
tulsa
westerm michigan (USC)
texas A&M
Maryland

i'll add a second set of picks by filtering out games i don't like... i won't play vandy. so that's only one adjustment.

[gojetsgomoxies]

looked at kambour.net and fairly similar analysis although his power ratings seem more balanced to picking favorites and underdogs.

his best picks by points of value (note that points of value and EV aren't the same as 3 points in close spread game isn't the same as 3 points in blowout spread game).

western michagan 16 points of value
alabama 13
TAM 12 wrong team favoured
navvy 12
temple 11

other games his power ratings favour:

minnesota 66
tulsa 69
memphis 65
wash 67
mary 65
iowa 65
michigan 64
georgia so 68

i'll grade both these groupings..........

[gojetsgomoxies]

eye-balling this.. for the 3 different sections it looks like 0-1, 1-0 and 0-3...... i will grade the whole thing carefully at the end of the weekend.

temple and wm seem like the big power rating plays tomorrow

[gojetsgomoxies]

i am posting this simply for info purposes............... i think that later in season that power rating spread picks are probably more of reverse value than positive value i.e. spreads are anchored too much to power ratings.

i assume that many of the power ratings (prediction machine) at the start of the season are mostly if not all based on last year's power ratings.

i will also note that especially later in the season that often large power rating values will just have to do with injuries i.e. assume lamar jackson just got injured. well he must be worth 5 to 7 points for louisville but power rating won't adjust for that.

anyway, here goes... strikes me it's alot of underdogs.. i eyeballed it for minimum 4 to 5 points of value based on mid-week line... bolded are the lines that are WAY OFF based on power ratings. i also put the opponent in brackets for these games)


georgia southern W CCS W
App state L
M O - very very hot last 6 games of last year. L
Van W
NCS - surprises me. i thought they might get overbet L
ark state W
temple (notre dame) L
tulsa L
westerm michigan (USC) W
texas A&M OPEN
Maryland W

i'll add a second set of picks by filtering out games i don't like... i won't play vandy. so that's only one adjustment.

6-5 i think... one game open... EDIT: 5-5. 1 game open.

[gojetsgomoxies]

looked at kambour.net and fairly similar analysis although his power ratings seem more balanced to picking favorites and underdogs.

his best picks by points of value (note that points of value and EV aren't the same as 3 points in close spread game isn't the same as 3 points in blowout spread game).

western michagan 16 points of value W
alabama 13 W
TAM 12 wrong team favoured OPEN
navvy 12 W
temple 11 L

other games his power ratings favour:

minnesota 66 L
tulsa 69 L
memphis 65 L
wash 67 L
mary 65 W
iowa 65 W
michigan 64 W
georgia so 68 W

i'll grade both these groupings..........

3-1 and 4-4

[shopbar picks]

I kind of half hearted use sagarin for power rankings.. Haven't done any kind of record keeping of the plays. But the ones I agree with are pretty close..Has Tx A&M, winning by 8 tonight

[gojetsgomoxies]

I kind of half hearted use sagarin for power rankings.. Haven't done any kind of record keeping of the plays. But the ones I agree with are pretty close..Has Tx A&M, winning by 8 tonight

agreed, i wasn't advocating power ratings as some sort of amazing hancapping info.. but in an information bubble (people don't know the teams very well, week 1) i would think tons of people look at them.

also, as i mentioned, later in the season power rating picks have alot to do with key injuries.