Hello guys long time investor, marathon runner , decided to post strictly my college investments which in reality college is only about 4% of my yearly plays but maybe I can share some insight on 2 basics of the how the machinery works. I know that ample evidence exists out there saying 1%-2% risk per play is proper ,correct ,sustainable. This is what I believed to ,until I got wiser and more disciplined ,the contradiction to this would be if bob bets an average 7 plays per day from which is calculated from over a years of investing daily average. Then on some days bob finds 13 investments worthy of action ,and this could happen with a possibility of 25% of the time? Bob has now increased his risk exposure to a particular market and also offers no diversity. Without getting to much more involved here I will express myself I risk 0.75% per investment only. Cannot stress the 0.75% enough really ,you wont find any degenerative ,emotional ,destructive behavior ,or bad wagers from me. Think of it like this bob owns a 1955 colt house pistol ,and with regular oiling ,cleaning ,storage ,care ,the occasional replacing of a part ,respect the gun works just as good today as it ever did.. For record purposes I will be grading units on a flat risk/reward ,example I risk 1u on a -110 line and win it would be a +0.91u profit
Now for the handicapping side of things ,its pretty strait forward. I use a plethora of resources like teamranking ,dratings ,fivethirtyeight ,models from software ,but for the simplicity I'm going to use statfox platinum . Easy to use simple ,no nonsense and to the point stats. Without going heavy into detail I use simple parameters to take the emotion ,revenge factor ,back door cover ,sudden crazy outbreaks in games which do happen regardless of how well a game is handicapped after all I am quit a happy camper by just preserving a 57% win rate give or take a little. Ok here are some basics I never bet against a top 40 team, I don't trust teams to cover spreads higher than -13 no matter what the rank or how good or value might be preserved ,always take value every wager has value if it doesn't I don't even look at it. Any total bet must be a sufficient gap to allow for algorithm scoring while the # must still be under the best teams average points per game and low # to still get some of their #. I never give the better team 3 point for being at home. I don't care what espn ,touts ,scouts ,some revenue generating magazine says , statfox isn't the leading logic in handicapping for putting non reliable #s out ,some projection simulator for team total wins or game % win rate. This is all basic feel free to double check the picks for yourself. IF you still have questions please ask I will do my best to suffice the reasoning.
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So week1 picks their is no more add on or possible plays all work is in.
each play is risk of 1unit/not going to post the -/+ line will grade each assumed -110 unless stated
ohio state/Indiana over 52
charlotte/+14
navy/-12
Miami ohio/pick
Arkansas state/+17
Appalachian State/+14
north Carolina state/-6
Vanderbilt/-5
texas a@m/+3
I like to keep how many road and home teams I bet pretty even but this is what week 1 produces so I'm going to pan it out the way it is ,instead of removing some however I do feel over exposure to away side. When bankroll has increased 20% recalculation of risk may be increased by 5% so 0.75 becomes 0.80. If it decreases 20% recalculation needs a drop of 8% so 0.75 becomes 0.67
Now for the handicapping side of things ,its pretty strait forward. I use a plethora of resources like teamranking ,dratings ,fivethirtyeight ,models from software ,but for the simplicity I'm going to use statfox platinum . Easy to use simple ,no nonsense and to the point stats. Without going heavy into detail I use simple parameters to take the emotion ,revenge factor ,back door cover ,sudden crazy outbreaks in games which do happen regardless of how well a game is handicapped after all I am quit a happy camper by just preserving a 57% win rate give or take a little. Ok here are some basics I never bet against a top 40 team, I don't trust teams to cover spreads higher than -13 no matter what the rank or how good or value might be preserved ,always take value every wager has value if it doesn't I don't even look at it. Any total bet must be a sufficient gap to allow for algorithm scoring while the # must still be under the best teams average points per game and low # to still get some of their #. I never give the better team 3 point for being at home. I don't care what espn ,touts ,scouts ,some revenue generating magazine says , statfox isn't the leading logic in handicapping for putting non reliable #s out ,some projection simulator for team total wins or game % win rate. This is all basic feel free to double check the picks for yourself. IF you still have questions please ask I will do my best to suffice the reasoning.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So week1 picks their is no more add on or possible plays all work is in.
each play is risk of 1unit/not going to post the -/+ line will grade each assumed -110 unless stated
ohio state/Indiana over 52
charlotte/+14
navy/-12
Miami ohio/pick
Arkansas state/+17
Appalachian State/+14
north Carolina state/-6
Vanderbilt/-5
texas a@m/+3
I like to keep how many road and home teams I bet pretty even but this is what week 1 produces so I'm going to pan it out the way it is ,instead of removing some however I do feel over exposure to away side. When bankroll has increased 20% recalculation of risk may be increased by 5% so 0.75 becomes 0.80. If it decreases 20% recalculation needs a drop of 8% so 0.75 becomes 0.67
