Oregon @ Cal Chit-Chat

[JayDr3am]

alot of people seem to have interest in this matchup so heres the thing. ALOT of oregon money just came in and the total has shot up a 1 point and a half. as far as the spread it went from +3 to +1 now sitting at 1.5 at some books. Some sharp guys are on the under full game. I have a personal play on the Oregon TT under but as far as the sides what are you guys thinking? Oregon's currently inept offense VS a Cal's offense that is always rollin'.....

[gojetsgomoxies]

never know how to play these "things have changed alot since last time" games........... i often think there's a bit of a pull-back to historical results, but of course washington 70, oregon 21 would seem to suggest that's a silly theory...

oregon is probably very high variability right now..... california i think you know what you'll get.

[JayDr3am]

theres no way the oregon backers feel comfortable with this pick right now. very shaky. especially if you have been watching oregon play.. i just dont see oregon exploding on the offensive end man. cal's defense is awful letting up 457563 pts a game but currently oregon's offense is worse than cal's defense. they're pumping on 1 cylinder.

[stackz125]

CAL ML
Don't over think it
Don't try to be a sharp
Don't try to be a square
Just bang cal ML

[JayDr3am]

exactly where im at with this game stackz. Oregon backers are over thinking this line movement IMO.

[BigdaddyQH]

You have two teams with two of the worst defenses in the NCAA. A slight lean to Cal because they are 3-0 at home and Oregon is 0-2 away, but neither one of these two garbage teams deserve the time of day, much less a wager. Pass.

[HeeluvaGuy]

So I guess we're gonna see a defensive or special teams touchdown. All TDs scored by offense is +155 right now on 5D. That's a mistake, right?

[JayDr3am]

Cal at home is not to be taken lightly.. webb is a man at home infront of fans i see a nice 7pt win by cal. i also lean cal but i cant pull the trigger on them. but im mainly seeing oregon having a hard time scoring period. theres no way in hell they put up more than a 40 burger in primetime

[JayDr3am]

they are both so bad on defense so it wouldnt surprise me if all TD's were score by the offense. +155 could be worth a sprinkle

[The Hat]

Cal passing game should shred the Ducks tonight

I have Cal (pk)

[HeeluvaGuy]

they are both so bad on defense so it wouldnt surprise me if all TD's were score by the offense. +155 could be worth a sprinkle

I think special teams is the tricky thing here.

[JayDr3am]

i agree. cal is known for being involved in fluky special team situations. that prop being at +155 is worth a small small sprinkle

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here are some stats for this one:

Average offensive possession length
Oregon - 1.82 mins
Cal - 1.84

Average plays per minute (w/ possession)
Oregon - 2.87
Cal - 3.13

Points per minute
Oregon - 1.46
Cal - 1.6

Points per possession
Oregon - 2.66
Cal - 2.95

[JayDr3am]

some of those stats are the reason why i dont think oregon will score more than 40 pts in primetime.. oregon can barely keep the ball let alone march down field and be successful in the redzone. of course the big plays are going to happen but it wont be as high scoring as people think.. some think this game will clear 100.. i say it lands right at the total or just underneath it

[spro23]

Oregon has a true freshman starting at QB for the first time. ur crazy to take them

[HeeluvaGuy]

Defensive points per possession
Oregon - 2.99
Cal - 2.7

Defensive Red Zone TD %
Oregon - 81.3%
Cal - 69.6%

Offensive TD %
Oregon - 80.8%
Cal - 56.5%

[JayDr3am]

Defensive points per possession
Oregon - 2.99
Cal - 2.7

Defensive Red Zone TD %
Oregon - 81.3%
Cal - 69.6%

Offensive TD %
Oregon - 80.8%
Cal - 56.5%

keep these comin' guy, this should help out some of the prop & total guys. BOL on your action tonight

[dreamchaser]

As a duck fan, even I am on Cal tonight +1.5

[JayDr3am]

Wow. Cal is now how a home dog at +1.5....

dont be fooled by this. the RLM makes me like cal even more than i did. cal is a strong strong lean

[JayDr3am]

As a duck fan, even I am on Cal tonight +1.5

very smart waiting. sharp

[HeeluvaGuy]

Offensive plays per penalty
Oregon - 18.38 (#108)
Cal - 22.88 (#66)
* added the ranking because that's probably not a stat most of us are familiar with

Defensive plays per penalty
Oregon - 19.98 (#102)
Cal - 21.87 (#86)

Offensive 3rd down conversion
Oregon - 42.7%
Cal - 42.3%

Defensive 3rd down conversion
Oregon - 46.8%
Cal - 43.3%

[HeeluvaGuy]

I took the over earlier today. Just added Cal +1.5 based on my model.

Good luck out there fellas.

[JayDr3am]

I took the over earlier today. Just added Cal +1.5 based on my model.

Good luck out there fellas.

hope you cash BOL guy

[paco]

So I guess we're gonna see a defensive or special teams touchdown. All TDs scored by offense is +155 right now on 5D. That's a mistake, right?

Could easily be special teams td

[xdodger19]

California, Oregon has some serious defensive issues
they have coaching problems. Cal has been playing good

[JayDr3am]

ok so just to clearify for people we can all agree cal + the pts is the pick for this one?

[JayDr3am]

cal now +2.......

[rainmaker82]

just went to +3 on my site..... Time to grab it?

[mngambler]

so line has moved 6+ points? who's out?

[JayDr3am]

just went to +3 on my site..... Time to grab it?

yeah at this point.. way too much oregon action. Cal should take this SU

[JayDr3am]

so line has moved 6+ points? who's out?

no one TOO significant. i believe its just oregon money raging in late

[BarstoolProphet]

Here are some stats for this one:

Average offensive possession length
Oregon - 1.82 mins
Cal - 1.84

Average plays per minute (w/ possession)
Oregon - 2.87
Cal - 3.13

Points per minute
Oregon - 1.46
Cal - 1.6

Points per possession
Oregon - 2.66
Cal - 2.95

Given these numbers,,I am surprised there are 11 guys on D out there.

[rainmaker82]

yeah at this point.. way too much oregon action. Cal should take this SU

Grabbed it! GL, lets cash this!

[Bbfromgpt]

Cal's best receiver now doubtful

[HeeluvaGuy]

Cal's best receiver now doubtful

I think most assumed he wasn't playing tonight.