Picking ML Away Favorites

dmncnlou · 08-27-16, 01:48 PM

Clemson can lose to Auburn but if they win at FSU they'll be just fine. Alabama must beat USC because they have 2 losable games at Tennessee and at LSU.

Memento · 08-27-16, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

The easiest wager in College Football, IF you know what you are doing. Why Money Line Away Favorites? Simple. You should have no problem going through an entire season picking one game a week. The actual ML does not matter because you are going to win. Last season, as many of you know, I went 13-0. Why should I care if I am laying 300 to win 100 or 1000 to win 100. I am going to win 100 no matter what I am laying because I am going to win every game I wager on. In the past 3 years I have lost once.

Why the road team? The main reason is that the road team has a lot less distractions than the home team does. No problems with the significant other, the kids, the fans, the drunks at the bars, etc... The road team goes in with the attitude of: "Let's just get the win and get out of here". They tend to play more conservatively, especially when they get the lead, and that leads to fewer turnovers.

Now the question becomes which away favorite to wager on. You must try to find a team that has a lot to lose if they blow the game. Here are a few examples:

Indiana -350 at Florida International. Indiana is trying to win 7-8 games. A loss could mean a 5-6 win season and the end of the line for HC Wilson.

Clemson -305 at Auburn. This is obvious. Clemson's chances of going back to the playoffs would be severely diminished with a loss at Auburn.

LSU -400 at Wisconsin. O.K. Technically this is a neutral site game in Green Bay, but if LSU loses, there is a good chance that Miles is closer to being fired than he is getting to the playoffs.

I will probably play one of these games. I only play one a week.

Decided not to troll this thread.....but I will say that if you are so confident with this strategy, why not do a 12 team open parlay for a better payout.

nymets · 08-27-16, 04:39 PM

Good Luck this season !!!

JayDr3am · 08-27-16, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

The easiest wager in College Football, IF you know what you are doing. Why Money Line Away Favorites? Simple. You should have no problem going through an entire season picking one game a week. The actual ML does not matter because you are going to win. Last season, as many of you know, I went 13-0. Why should I care if I am laying 300 to win 100 or 1000 to win 100. I am going to win 100 no matter what I am laying because I am going to win every game I wager on. In the past 3 years I have lost once.

Why the road team? The main reason is that the road team has a lot less distractions than the home team does. No problems with the significant other, the kids, the fans, the drunks at the bars, etc... The road team goes in with the attitude of: "Let's just get the win and get out of here". They tend to play more conservatively, especially when they get the lead, and that leads to fewer turnovers.

Now the question becomes which away favorite to wager on. You must try to find a team that has a lot to lose if they blow the game. Here are a few examples:

Indiana -350 at Florida International. Indiana is trying to win 7-8 games. A loss could mean a 5-6 win season and the end of the line for HC Wilson.

Clemson -305 at Auburn. This is obvious. Clemson's chances of going back to the playoffs would be severely diminished with a loss at Auburn.

LSU -400 at Wisconsin. O.K. Technically this is a neutral site game in Green Bay, but if LSU loses, there is a good chance that Miles is closer to being fired than he is getting to the playoffs.

I will probably play one of these games. I only play one a week.

... QH are you serious right now? you're pranking me, right? dear god.

BigdaddyQH · 08-28-16, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by JayDr3am

... QH are you serious right now? you're pranking me, right? dear god.

Your problem, like 99% of the other people in here who actually wager is this. You are afraid to lose. Like most in here, you are a coward when it comes to possibly losing money. I do NOT lose. You can ask NYMets who followed me last season. To me, there is always one game or more that gives money away. It is not hard to find.

Memento, the reason why I do not do a 12 team parlay is because the chances of losing the parlay are much greater than simply taking the one game gift wager.

One other thought. How much money did you guys win last season? If you are honest (and I commend the few in here who are), the answer will be none 90% of the time. I posted every game last season and won every game. NONE of you can say that, yet all of you can do that, if you have enough guts to make the wagers.

JayDr3am · 08-28-16, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Your problem, like 99% of the other people in here who actually wager is this. You are afraid to lose. Like most in here, you are a coward when it comes to possibly losing money. I do NOT lose. You can ask NYMets who followed me last season. To me, there is always one game or more that gives money away. It is not hard to find.

Memento, the reason why I do not do a 12 team parlay is because the chances of losing the parlay are much greater than simply taking the one game gift wager.

One other thought. How much money did you guys win last season? If you are honest (and I commend the few in here who are), the answer will be none 90% of the time. I posted every game last season and won every game. NONE of you can say that, yet all of you can do that, if you have enough guts to make the wagers.

me personally ill never see value in laying 1k for a measly 100 dollars.. thats borderline insane and really doesnt take any skill whatsoever.. only way there is value in taking a line like -1150 is if you're laying 50 or 60k.. and even if i had 50 or 60k to wager per game i would still be skeptical. i only cap underdogs and i rarely take favorites and if the favorite is more than 2 for 1 i cant pull the trigger on it.. im all about value to the dollar. if im not getting paid nearly what i risked, its simply not worth it. you're exactly right though i am coward when it comes to losing.. but being a coward of losing has made me a x30 better handicapper.. i understand your strategy and i see the edge you're presenting but i dont agree with it, to each is own.

Memento · 08-28-16, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Your problem, like 99% of the other people in here who actually wager is this. You are afraid to lose. Like most in here, you are a coward when it comes to possibly losing money. I do NOT lose. You can ask NYMets who followed me last season. To me, there is always one game or more that gives money away. It is not hard to find.

Memento, the reason why I do not do a 12 team parlay is because the chances of losing the parlay are much greater than simply taking the one game gift wager.

One other thought. How much money did you guys win last season? If you are honest (and I commend the few in here who are), the answer will be none 90% of the time. I posted every game last season and won every game. NONE of you can say that, yet all of you can do that, if you have enough guts to make the wagers.

It isnt how much you win but the % won in relation to % bet. I dont see how taking a -110000 fav to win $100 makes financial sense even if you think it is free money. They let you play those odds for a reason and the math doesnt work in the long run if your arent getting back what you put in. I am surely not afraid to lose money but only when the return is equal to or greater than the loss. Ive lost 8-10K on a sinlge bet but won just as much on others. BOL on an undefeated season...you'll need 4-5 in a row to sustain this style.

maggiethebestdog · 08-28-16, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by Memento

It isnt how much you win but the % won in relation to % bet. I dont see how taking a -110000 fav to win $100 makes financial sense even if you think it is free money. They let you play those odds for a reason and the math doesnt work in the long run if your arent getting back what you put in. I am surely not afraid to lose money but only when the return is equal to or greater than the loss. Ive lost 8-10K on a sinlge bet but won just as much on others. BOL on an undefeated season...you'll need 4-5 in a row to sustain this style.

2 losses and he loses money. when 10-2 loses you money, i am out.

kobi_j · 08-28-16, 10:20 PM

I have all 3 of them in a parlay. wish me luck

CTOWNsCAPPIN · 08-28-16, 11:08 PM

Originally posted by JayDr3am

me personally ill never see value in laying 1k for a measly 100 dollars.. thats borderline insane and really doesnt take any skill whatsoever.. only way there is value in taking a line like -1150 is if you're laying 50 or 60k.. and even if i had 50 or 60k to wager per game i would still be skeptical. i only cap underdogs and i rarely take favorites and if the favorite is more than 2 for 1 i cant pull the trigger on it.. im all about value to the dollar. if im not getting paid nearly what i risked, its simply not worth it. you're exactly right though i am coward when it comes to losing.. but being a coward of losing has made me a x30 better handicapper.. i understand your strategy and i see the edge you're presenting but i dont agree with it, to each is own.

This right here

CTOWNsCAPPIN · 08-28-16, 11:10 PM

I totally disagree with this approach and as stated above, they let you make these types of insane plays for a reason. I can see all three of those games you posted going the other way.

CTOWNsCAPPIN · 08-28-16, 11:10 PM

BOL to you as i may not agree but never want to see anyone lose money.

Memento · 08-29-16, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by kobi_j

I have all 3 of them in a parlay. wish me luck

BOL...at least you are getting back +120....so that makes more sense to me.

dmncnlou · 08-29-16, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by CTOWNsCAPPIN

I totally disagree with this approach and as stated above, they let you make these types of insane plays for a reason. I can see all three of those games you posted going the other way.

LSU ain't losing.

BigdaddyQH · 08-29-16, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by maggiethebestdog

2 losses and he loses money. when 10-2 loses you money, i am out.

That is the difference between you and myself. You are a loser. You will always be a loser because you are afraid to lose and people who are afraid to lose pass up the free money. I have a 38-1 record over the past 3 seasons, and 26-0 in the past 2 seasons. Last season I went 13-0 and posted every selection in here. I made more money just on those selections alone than anyone else made in here because I wager more than anyone else and I do NOT lose. You, and the vast majority like you are followers. You are afraid to think and act outside of the box. I am a leader and not afraid to do so.

TheHaus · 08-29-16, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

That is the difference between you and myself. You are a loser. You will always be a loser because you are afraid to lose and people who are afraid to lose pass up the free money. I have a 38-1 record over the past 3 seasons, and 26-0 in the past 2 seasons. Last season I went 13-0 and posted every selection in here. I made more money just on those selections alone than anyone else made in here because I wager more than anyone else and I do NOT lose. You, and the vast majority like you are followers. You are afraid to think and act outside of the box. I am a leader and not afraid to do so.

congrats you pick high money line favorites

Lets see you find value in certain under dogs and parlay them together

I would much rather parlay 2 dogs i know can certainly win in CF and lay 50 to win 600 then lay 400-600 to win 50

Grits n' Gravy · 08-29-16, 04:08 PM

Whatever works for the guy. Let him bet his plays and see how it goes this season.

daneblazer · 08-29-16, 04:09 PM

Watch the weather in that Indiana game. May not be that bad, but may be terrible

maggiethebestdog · 08-29-16, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

That is the difference between you and myself. You are a loser. You will always be a loser because you are afraid to lose and people who are afraid to lose pass up the free money. I have a 38-1 record over the past 3 seasons, and 26-0 in the past 2 seasons. Last season I went 13-0 and posted every selection in here. I made more money just on those selections alone than anyone else made in here because I wager more than anyone else and I do NOT lose. You, and the vast majority like you are followers. You are afraid to think and act outside of the box. I am a leader and not afraid to do so.

You will see i am quitting the politic and racial posts because i don't want to be angry all the time. As far as betting goes, there is no way you can argue games because it is so hard. Every post you write is a self serving, ego maniac, insecure and retarded joke. You are the best at everything. I get it. I have gone through ALL of your posts relating to college football. You are a liar. You have no proof of what you say and you don't even meet your own requirements for posting picks with a time stamp. I don't believe one word you say. I guarantee i have won far more money in my lifetime than you have. If you want to have a money handicapping contest i will gladly destroy you. Put up or shut up. You are the typical fake bettor who brags and can't agree with anyone on anything. Don't even talk to me unless you are ready to put your money where your big, ignorant mouth is.

JayDr3am · 08-29-16, 06:15 PM

an ATS handicapping contest for REAL money is essential..

whoever loses, leaves.

maggiethebestdog · 08-29-16, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by JayDr3am

an ATS handicapping contest for REAL money is essential..

whoever loses, leaves.

Sounds good. First he has to show me his picks he never lost with time stamped proof. Then, I will destroy him.

Memento · 08-29-16, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by Grits n' Gravy

Whatever works for the guy. Let him bet his plays and see how it goes this season.

It is not a strategy at all....Bama has lost 3 home games the past 5 years....Clemson has only lost 2 at home. He is betting road teams because he thinks there is some edge on focus or something....like good coaches and teams don't focus at home. In fact, clemson has as many L's (1) at home the past three years as QH has using his "flawless" method. You could have bet Clemson blindly and probably done better with the odds.....no handicapping skill required.

Memento · 08-29-16, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by maggiethebestdog

Sounds good. First he has to show me his picks he never lost with time stamped proof. Then, I will destroy him.

Just let him brag all he wants about big bets and afraid to lose nonsense if that is what he needs from this forum. Maybe he can show a betslip by the end of the season.

Isaiah · 08-29-16, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by maggiethebestdog

I have gone through ALL of your posts relating to college football. You are a liar. You have no proof of what you say and you don't even meet your own requirements for posting picks with a time stamp.

If you have gone through "All" his posts you would know that he did indeed go 13-0 on his picks last season. Obviously YOU are the liar not him.

As I've said before; BigdaddyQH is the only reason I visit this garbage site, his is the only opinion I respect here. He has already provided several noteworthy insights in other posts that I have found useful.

As for the rest of you posers, grifters, wannabees and perennial losers stay in your lane and out of BigdaddyQH's threads. All you do is clutter the landscape for us serious people.

maggiethebestdog · 08-29-16, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by Isaiah

If you have gone through "All" his posts you would know that he did indeed go 13-0 on his picks last season. Obviously YOU are the liar not him.

As I've said before; BigdaddyQH is the only reason I visit this garbage site, his is the only opinion I respect here. He has already provided several noteworthy insights in other posts that I have found useful.

As for the rest of you posers, grifters, wannabees and perennial losers stay in your lane and out of BigdaddyQH's threads. All you do is clutter the landscape for us serious people.

Hey idiot, none of his picks are there and certainly nothing with a time stamped ticket. Since you have his schwantz in your mouth, take it out long enough to tell him he hasn't responded to my challenge.

Jaycee Harland · 08-29-16, 09:56 PM

It doesnt make sense to bash or even question a guy who has 11k posts, has the respect of most long timers and has stood the test of time in here (which aint all that common). Im open to any strategy that makes cash. period
ML is the only way to play road faves. I like Indiana (nervous about the QB) but being a little fish in the big10 makes these games much more important. Not likely to make up a loss at FIU with a win at Mich or Wisc. Same with LSU, lose this one and go into the SEC already with a loss.
That being said, I dont have the bankroll to bet big ML faves straight up. Like to parlay 2, 3 at the most with one a BIG number. Bring the odds up a bit. I put daddys pick many times on my card last yr, all won.....his, I mean.

GL 2 ALL

maggiethebestdog · 08-29-16, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by Jaycee Harland

It doesnt make sense to bash or even question a guy who has 11k posts, has the respect of most long timers and has stood the test of time in here (which aint all that common). Im open to any strategy that makes cash. period
ML is the only way to play road faves. I like Indiana (nervous about the QB) but being a little fish in the big10 makes these games much more important. Not likely to make up a loss at FIU with a win at Mich or Wisc. Same with LSU, lose this one and go into the SEC already with a loss.
That being said, I dont have the bankroll to bet big ML faves straight up. Like to parlay 2, 3 at the most with one a BIG number. Bring the odds up a bit. I put daddys pick many times on my card last yr, all won.....his, I mean.

GL 2 ALL

He is a know it all jerk who only tells how great he is and how dumb everyone else is. He couldn't cap his way out of a paper bag. Anyone that would even suggest this as a system is obviously a fake. 11,000 BS post doesn't impress me. Let him take my challenge so i can prove what a phony blowhard he is. He won't do it because deep down he is an insecure bully who can't back up his mouth.

Jaycee Harland · 08-29-16, 10:34 PM

Maggie (btw sister has pyrnees named maggie, ur right on there) that could be true. Doesnt effect me or how I bet. I can tail a jerk as easy as I can the scoutmaster of the year. A flame throwing war with a guy that packs a refinery on his back seems like a losing proposition to me. For me, better to acknowledge accomplishments, even if they are high MLs, and move on. No doubt you know whats going on and can do very well for yourself indeed. I hope you kill it this year, even if you slip a few BigDaddy tails on your cards.

SBRMAN23 · 08-30-16, 03:15 AM

Originally posted by maggiethebestdog

He is a know it all jerk who only tells how great he is and how dumb everyone else is. He couldn't cap his way out of a paper bag. Anyone that would even suggest this as a system is obviously a fake. 11,000 BS post doesn't impress me. Let him take my challenge so i can prove what a phony blowhard he is. He won't do it because deep down he is an insecure bully who can't back up his mouth.

Tell us how your ur really feel? You mad bruh lmaooo

grease lightnin · 08-30-16, 08:10 AM

Ok... so the strategy is to bet all heavy road faves in COLLEGE FOOTBALL....

Have fun with that. Anybody who buys this crap deserves to lose their money.

grease lightnin · 08-30-16, 08:23 AM

Also.... Indiana is currently -350 ML, -9. It opened at -4.... qhat did the money line open at and is there a specific reason for the movement?

PS I found this thread because I ran a search on Indiana

Jaycee Harland · 08-30-16, 10:46 AM

I don't think anyone said "bet all away MLs". For me, giving points on the road is tough to do as the are very often hard fought. If you like the road fav, take the ML or pass. I personally cant take a heavy ML straight, too much downside. Big dad might interpet that as "not enough balls" so be it, might be a little truth in there. Make the odds a bit better with parlaying one other ML makes it more palatable. I'm guessing Indiana went from 4 to 9 because FIU is dogshit. New QB for the hoosiers, -350 on the road, might have to have a check the underpants to see whats down there if I'm going to pull the trigger on that one. Looking at Colorado-300 might be a play.

BigdaddyQH · 08-30-16, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by maggiethebestdog

He is a know it all jerk who only tells how great he is and how dumb everyone else is. He couldn't cap his way out of a paper bag. Anyone that would even suggest this as a system is obviously a fake. 11,000 BS post doesn't impress me. Let him take my challenge so i can prove what a phony blowhard he is. He won't do it because deep down he is an insecure bully who can't back up his mouth.

Just what is your challenge. I missed it. I probably will not bother with you because I can kick your worthless arse any time I want to, but I will look at it. Remember this. I am stronger than you. I am smarter than you. I have a hell of a lot more money than you do, and I made a living sending big mouth idiots like you to ER's, jails, or the morgue. You are no different than the rest of the scum I dealt with.

maggiethebestdog · 08-30-16, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Just what is your challenge. I missed it. I probably will not bother with you because I can kick your worthless arse any time I want to, but I will look at it. Remember this. I am stronger than you. I am smarter than you. I have a hell of a lot more money than you do, and I made a living sending big mouth idiots like you to ER's, jails, or the morgue. You are no different than the rest of the scum I dealt with.

You don't know what a handicapping contest is??? The reason you won't deal with me is you know i will destroy you and expose what a blowhard you are. We can also meet in an octagon if you want. That is where i have trained for the last 35 yrs. Trust me, I will not break a sweat and you will be lucky to get out alive. Also, I want to see the actual ticket from your bet, just like you require from other people. You are a pathological liar and I don't believe you.