NCAAF Solids

[JayDr3am]

cant believe Football is right around the corner guys.. Best Part of the year. ill be posting my college football picks here. hit well over 62% last season looking to repeat and exceed those expectations. ill post my 1st official pick here in the next couple days. Lets have a great season boys

normal plays = 1u

fire play = 2u

College football 0-0

[BigdaddyQH]

cant believe Football is right around the corner guys.. Best Part of the year. ill be posting my college football picks here. hit well over 62% last season looking to repeat and exceed those expectations. ill post my 1st official pick here in the next couple days. Lets have a great season boys

normal plays = 1u

fire play = 2u

College football 0-0

I don't know where you nit over 62% of your plays, but it sure was not in here. Now you put yourself in a position of having to put up or leave. I hope you get to your 62% but I seriously doubt that. 38% is probably a closer guess.

[maggiethebestdog]

What does "well over 62%" mean??? 62.6% or 99.9%?? Not a good vibe sent out here.

[JayDr3am]

I don't know where you nit over 62% of your plays, but it sure was not in here. Now you put yourself in a position of having to put up or leave. I hope you get to your 62% but I seriously doubt that. 38% is probably a closer guess.

38% get the penetrate out of here QH!! if i cap anything below 55% this season ill slap my own mom.

[JayDr3am]

What does "well over 62%" mean??? 62.6% or 99.9%?? Not a good vibe sent out here.

i worded it that way maggie cause last year i was hitting at an unreal number the first half of the season last year (everything was so soft in the beginning) .. it was seriously unbelievable. my friends were even like .... but then i finally leveled out and stayed consistent at 62%.. i hate even really talking about numbers ill just let my capping speak for itself.

[JayDr3am]

i have a NFL thread thats in full effect im even taking pre season games that i really like.. and in about 2 weeks im shutting down my MLB thread guys. were about to have a great football season

[JayDr3am]

Week 1

NCAAF record 0-0 +18u

Toledo +3 -110 *Fire play

there is a little suspicion it could move down a .5 to a full point so i decided to book this ticket a week early before it loses the value i want. Lets start this season off right guys.

[Jaycee Harland]

62% is very good. way over that is great. Youve set a high bar for yourself, I hope you meet and exceed it. Dont want to see any mom slapped. good luck. Ill have a look at the rockets, intriguing.

[JayDr3am]

62% is very good. way over that is great. Youve set a high bar for yourself, I hope you meet and exceed it. Dont want to see any mom slapped. good luck. Ill have a look at the rockets, intriguing.

we got a new comer LOL! but appreciate it jaycee ill need all the luck i can get. but im not here to toot my own horn or trying to act like a badass throwing out percentages or anything like that but i am a great handicapper, period. bar none. i have fun doing it but i also do like to win so i do put alot of effort, thought & legwork into my picks. Welcome to the gravy train jaycee

[saints1856]

Week 1

NCAAF record 0-0 +18u

Toledo +3 -110 *Fire play

there is a little suspicion it could move down a .5 to a full point so i decided to book this ticket a week early before it loses the value i want. Lets start this season off right guys.

Lets see what you got.

One thing, how are you +18u when you're 0-0 and the season hasn't started?

[JayDr3am]

Lets see what you got.

One thing, how are you +18u when you're 0-0 and the season hasn't started?

18 units is my startup bankroll

[tigertom]

Jay, can you explain "fire play"? Is that how strong you are playing it? Thanks.

[JayDr3am]

Jay, can you explain "fire play"? Is that how strong you are playing it? Thanks.

yes fire plays are a 2 unit play. if its not labeled as a "fire play" then its only a 1u play.

[clynnm17]

Good luck

[Shark]

I've never seen anyone include their bankroll as plus units, that's an interesting approach Jay. Good luck this year with your plays.

[JayDr3am]

I've never seen anyone include their bankroll as plus units, that's an interesting approach Jay. Good luck this year with your plays.

yeah that way you guys know how many units i start with, and how many units i end the season with! appreciate it shark BOL this season

[Memento]

18 units is my startup bankroll

So a fire play is over 10% of your bankroll? Doesnt sound like good money management but BOL. Wont matter if you win!

[JayDr3am]

So a fire play is over 10% of your bankroll? Doesnt sound like good money management but BOL. Wont matter if you win!

exactly.

[kj8210]

Jay any reason for the fire play on Toledo? They beat Arkansas State by 30 points last season but are 3 point dogs now? Just wanna hear your thoughts. Good luck this season.

[JayDr3am]

Jay any reason for the fire play on Toledo? They beat Arkansas State by 30 points last season but are 3 point dogs now? Just wanna hear your thoughts. Good luck this season.

i have the same high expectations for toledo this year as i did last year.. Toledo is one those teams where you will see me fade or follow week in and week out. im not too worried about toledo's offense cause they will score but TOLEDO'S DEFENSE is what im big on. i dont see arkansas states running game REALLY thriving against toledo's defensive line.. awesome D-line. and if the red wolves decide to air out, toledo's secondary is JUST AS talented if not better.. & the addition of Brian george (defensive coordinator) coming over from kent state is a mastermind coordinator. last season he coordinated a defense that was ranked top 3 of SCORING defenses so its only fitting that he will bring that same flare to toledo.. this will be a low scoring battle in the trenches but i have a good feeling im on the right side of the 3.

[kj8210]

i have the same high expectations for toledo this year as i did last year.. Toledo is one those teams where you will see me fade or follow week in and week out. im not too worried about toledo's offense cause they will score but TOLEDO'S DEFENSE is what im big on. i dont see arkansas states running game REALLY thriving against toledo's defensive line.. awesome D-line. and if the red wolves decide to air out, toledo's secondary is JUST AS talented if not better.. & the addition of Brian george (defensive coordinator) coming over from kent state is a mastermind coordinator. last season he coordinated a defense that was ranked top 3 of SCORING defenses so its only fitting that he will bring that same flare to toledo.. this will be a low scoring battle in the trenches but i have a good feeling im on the right side of the 3.

Gotcha. Thanks for the analysis. I was just curious to as if last years score had any impact on Thursdays game but I guess not.

[JayDr3am]

Jay any reason for the fire play on Toledo? They beat Arkansas State by 30 points last season but are 3 point dogs now? Just wanna hear your thoughts. Good luck this season.

the only reason the red wolves are favored by 3 is cause they are at home.. with a really sophisticated math equation home field is worth 2.75 points (round it to 3).. my strong opinion this game should be at PK, but the line has opened and stayed at 3.. the spread numbers 3 and 7 are key numbers and are very hard to be on the right side of but i tend to do well with them. arkansas state is favored but toledo is more talented on both sides of the ball. it'll be a good game for sure

[JayDr3am]

Gotcha. Thanks for the analysis. I was just curious to as if last years score had any impact on Thursdays game but I guess not.

no problem BOL this season kj

[maggiethebestdog]

Without checking again, I thought Ark St was supposed to be good this year. Am i confusing that??? I like your write up of the game.

[JayDr3am]

Without checking again, I thought Ark St was supposed to be good this year. Am i confusing that??? I like your write up of the game.

they will be good but i have them knocked down a couple of notches from last season.. the beginning of their schedule is NOT in their favor at all.. they have toledo in the opener, then immediately having 2 really tough road games in auburn AND in utah state.. that has tough written all over it. it is very possible they could start off the season 0-3.. when the red wolves face teams that are solely focused on hard-knock defense, they tend to have trouble winning.. now toward the middle of the season i can see the red wolves stringing together some wins but this first month of football is going to be HECTIC and very difficult for them. it'll be interesting to see how they handle it.

[maggiethebestdog]

Thanks. I will check into that game.

[kj8210]

Good luck man. Line already at toledo +3.5 @-105

[BigdaddyQH]

Week 1

NCAAF record 0-0 +18u

Toledo +3 -110 *Fire play

there is a little suspicion it could move down a .5 to a full point so i decided to book this ticket a week early before it loses the value i want. Lets start this season off right guys.

I will tell you the same thing I will tell everyone else in here. Post when you booked it and which book you booked it with. That keeps you honest.

[BigdaddyQH]

Here is how the game breaks down. Toledo is coming off a very good 10-2 season. They lose 3 offensive starters, so they should be strong on that side of the ball. They lose 7 starters on defense and that is going to hurt them. They also have a new H.C. Arkansas State loses 5 starters on offense but only 4 on defense. Their defense intercepted 26 passes last season and returned 8 for TD's. Both led the nation. They return their HC. What nobody has mentioned so far is Toledo's perfect 6-0 ATS record on the road last season.

I think that this game should be a PK, so gun to head, Toledo is the play, however both of these teams play in very weak conferences, so the best play here is no play at all.

[JayDr3am]

Here is how the game breaks down. Toledo is coming off a very good 10-2 season. They lose 3 offensive starters, so they should be strong on that side of the ball. They lose 7 starters on defense and that is going to hurt them. They also have a new H.C. Arkansas State loses 5 starters on offense but only 4 on defense. Their defense intercepted 26 passes last season and returned 8 for TD's. Both led the nation. They return their HC. What nobody has mentioned so far is Toledo's perfect 6-0 ATS record on the road last season.

I think that this game should be a PK, so gun to head, Toledo is the play, however both of these teams play in very weak conferences, so the best play here is no play at all.

their outstanding road record wasnt mentioned in this thread but it definitely was incorporated when i was breaking this game down.. these are the type of games i look for.. all fingers point to toledo. they perform better on the road then they do at home AND they're getting possibly 3.5 to 4 pts to lean on due to the latest line movement.. see you would pass on this type of game, but this is a game that interest me.. that just shows how different our styles and views are. like in your thread "ML away favorites".. i would NEVER take that approach EVER but i understand it.. The real breakdown of this game is an outstanding road team is GETTING points, this is an ideal situation.

[JayDr3am]

Good luck man. Line already at toledo +3.5 @-105

i may need a splash of luck.. and yeah i noticed the line movement.. i didnt think the line would move up to 3.5 but the public seems to like arkansas state alot.. but me personally i love being on the other side of the public. the public doesnt know shit and is so biased. i love to be on games and plays that NO one else is on so the public doesnt ruin the lines

[JayDr3am]

Week 1 addition:

North Carolina +3 -110

College football 0-0

[Memento]

Taking Toledo +4

[JayDr3am]

Taking Toledo +4

lets cash it

[kj8210]

got them +4 as well. Lets cash this ticket boys!