CFB Plays - Week 10

BigdaddyQH · 11-02-15, 12:03 PM

How can you wager on a team that has scored 12 points in their last 3 games? Miss. State has one of the better defenses in the SEC.

LT Profits · 11-02-15, 01:31 PM

CFB Saturday Addition

THURSDAY, 11/5
Missouri +7 -105 (Heritage)

SATURDAY, 11/5
Troy -9½ -110 (5 Dimes)

LT Profits · 11-02-15, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

How can you wager on a team that has scored 12 points in their last 3 games? Miss. State has one of the better defenses in the SEC.

Missouri's defense grades out slightly better. Plus Mississippi State has not been that great on the road and Bulldogs have Alabama up next.

Isaiah · 11-02-15, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Missouri's defense grades out slightly better. Plus Mississippi State has not been that great on the road and Bulldogs have Alabama up next.

"Grades out slightly better"? Really? Guess it depends on who is doing the grading and what criteria they are using.

Who you going to believe; me or your lying eyes? Not a convincing explanation at all and certainly not a
reason to lay one's money on them.

KANSAS24 · 11-03-15, 04:17 AM

Going to be close!

LT Profits · 11-03-15, 07:33 AM

Originally posted by Isaiah

"Grades out slightly better"? Really? Guess it depends on who is doing the grading and what criteria they are using.

Who you going to believe; me or your lying eyes? Not a convincing explanation at all and certainly not a
reason to lay one's money on them.

Missouri defense grades out MUCH better using just raw stats. They are something like third in the country in points against and sixth in total defense.

Missouri is still slightly better in adjusted efficiency, which takes SOS into consideration. Missouri ranks 16th, Mississippi State 17th.

I am not criticizing MSU defense at all, it just seems people are underestimating how great Missouri defense is. They may be 0-8 without it.

LT Profits · 11-03-15, 09:55 AM

1 CFB Addition Thursday

THURSDAY, 11/5
Kansas State +17.5 -110 (Heritage)
Missouri +7 -105 (Heritage)

SATURDAY, 11/5
Troy -9½ -110 (5 Dimes)

Isaiah · 11-03-15, 08:17 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Missouri defense grades out MUCH better using just raw stats. They are something like third in the country in points against and sixth in total defense.

Missouri is still slightly better in adjusted efficiency, which takes SOS into consideration. Missouri ranks 16th, Mississippi State 17th.

I am not criticizing MSU defense at all, it just seems people are underestimating how great Missouri defense is. They may be 0-8 without it.

So the difference between 16th and 17th rated defenses justifies a play? I suspect that it would be more than offset by Miss. St. better offense.

Nonetheless getting points at home versus a Miss. St. team that has a history of occasionally crapping the bed once or twice a season isn't a bad toss of the dice. Good luck to you.

PREMOSIX · 11-03-15, 09:00 PM

Sorry LT after being left out top 4 Baylor ready to make statement n pound Kstate esp with QB change

LT Profits · 11-03-15, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by Isaiah

So the difference between 16th and 17th rated defenses justifies a play? I suspect that it would be more than offset by Miss. St. better offense.

Nonetheless getting points at home versus a Miss. St. team that has a history of occasionally crapping the bed once or twice a season isn't a bad toss of the dice. Good luck to you.

Of course not, there is more to it than that. The only reason I brought it up in the first place was in response to Bigdaddy pointing out that MSU has one of the best defenses in the SEC when in fact Missouri's is just as good.

Isaiah · 11-03-15, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Of course not, there is more to it than that. The only reason I brought it up in the first place was in response to Bigdaddy pointing out that MSU has one of the best defenses in the SEC when in fact Missouri's is just as good.

No. 24
Mississippi State
Bulldogs

6-2
5th SEC WEST
(2-2)

Thursday, November 5, 2015 - 9:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

295.5 (22nd)	Pass Off.	177.1 (104th)
149.6 (88th)	Rush Off.	100.5 (114th)
213.5 (56th)	Pass Def.	161.6 (6th)
161.8 (59th)	Rush Def.	120.5 (23rd)

Faurot Field
Columbia, MO
Sprinkles. Increasing cloudiness. Mild. 69 °F, Wind: 15.46 mph/S

Missouri
Tigers

4-4
6th SEC EAST
(1-4)

Well then considering Miss. St. clearly has the superior offense and the defenses are a wash your methodology is even more puzzling.

LT Profits · 11-04-15, 01:24 AM

I am not disagreeing that Mississippi State has the much superior offense, but I don't expect them to come close to their season averages vs. the Missouri defense, especially when you add in the facts that Bulldogs are not as good on the road and this is a cross-division game (first ever meeting in fact) with Alabama up next.

Isaiah · 11-04-15, 01:27 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I am not disagreeing that Mississippi State has the much superior offense, but I don't expect them to come close to their season averages vs. the Missouri defense, especially when you add in the facts that Bulldogs are not as good on the road and this is a cross-division game (first ever meeting in fact) with Alabama up next.

Fair enough. Like I said it's not a bad gamble. Good luck.

LT Profits · 11-04-15, 09:13 AM

1 CFB Addition Saturday

THURSDAY, 11/5
Kansas State +17.5 -110 (Heritage)
Missouri +7 -105 (Heritage)

SATURDAY, 11/7
West Virginia -8 -105 (5 Dimes)
Troy -9½ -110 (5 Dimes)

Smutbucket · 11-04-15, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by Isaiah

No. 24
Mississippi State
Bulldogs

6-2
5th SEC WEST
(2-2)

Thursday, November 5, 2015 - 9:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

295.5 (22nd)	Pass Off.	177.1 (104th)
149.6 (88th)	Rush Off.	100.5 (114th)
213.5 (56th)	Pass Def.	161.6 (6th)
161.8 (59th)	Rush Def.	120.5 (23rd)

Faurot Field
Columbia, MO
Sprinkles. Increasing cloudiness. Mild. 69 °F, Wind: 15.46 mph/S

Missouri
Tigers

4-4
6th SEC EAST
(1-4)

Well then considering Miss. St. clearly has the superior offense and the defenses are a wash your methodology is even more puzzling.

well you are atleast right about one thing, it depends on how you grade defenses and only an idiot would use yards per game in evaluating a defense....useless meaningless stat....

good luck this weekend LT....tempted by missou number and kstate just cant bring myself to pull the trigger on either of those but will be watching....

Memento · 11-04-15, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I am not disagreeing that Mississippi State has the much superior offense, but I don't expect them to come close to their season averages vs. the Missouri defense, especially when you add in the facts that Bulldogs are not as good on the road and this is a cross-division game (first ever meeting in fact) with Alabama up next.

Maybe first ever SEC meeting, but these teams played twice back in the 80's. Missouri won both games.

RavensFan2k3 · 11-04-15, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

THURSDAY, 11/5
Kansas State +17.5 -110 (Heritage)
Missouri +7 -105 (Heritage)

SATURDAY, 11/7
West Virginia -8 -105 (5 Dimes)
Troy -9½ -110 (5 Dimes)

Ive seen you taking alot more favorites than I'm used to lol. Not really understanding the WVU pick tho, can you delve into it for me

LT Profits · 11-04-15, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by Memento

Maybe first ever SEC meeting, but these teams played twice back in the 80's. Missouri won both games.

I stand corrected, thanks. Had to be before 1985, that's as far back my database goes.

LT Profits · 11-04-15, 11:24 AM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Ive seen you taking alot more favorites than I'm used to lol. Not really understanding the WVU pick tho, can you delve into it for me

I was a bit surprised myself when model spit out WVU -9.70. But if you dig into the home/away splits for these teams, offenses grade out close to equal but WVU grades out much better defensively. Sure first three WVU home games were cupcakes - well, two cupcakes and a danish (Maryland, who they held to 6 points) - but then in their only Big 12 home game, they held Oklahoma State to 26 points during regulation time and to just 362 total yards overall. Texas Tech meanwhile is dreadful defensively no matter where they play.

LT Profits · 11-05-15, 10:36 AM

4 CFB Saturday Additions

THURSDAY, 11/5
Kansas State +17.5 -110 (Heritage)
Missouri +7 -105 (Heritage)

SATURDAY, 11/7
Duke / North Carolina UNDER 58.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
West Virginia -8 -105 (5 Dimes)
Syracuse / Louisville UNDER 51.5 -105 (Heritage)
Troy -9½ -110 (5 Dimes)
Navy +7.5 -105 (Heritage)
Washington -1.5 -105 (Heritage)

Duke Fan · 11-05-15, 11:11 AM

Mississippi State - Missouri looks like an Under to me. Missouri can't score and don't look for Mississippi State to either. I could see this staying under 35.

dfish · 11-05-15, 12:57 PM

SATURDAY, 11/7
Duke / North Carolina UNDER 58.5 -110 (Bookmaker)

Watching this one myself, safe to say it's topped out ??

Duke Fan · 11-05-15, 11:25 PM

Originally posted by Duke Fan

Mississippi State - Missouri looks like an Under to me. Missouri can't score and don't look for Mississippi State to either. I could see this staying under 35.

Misread this one. Just got in at halftime, but Miss. State is wearing Missouri out. May get the over by themselves.

LT Profits · 11-06-15, 12:17 PM

CFB FRIDAY Addition

FRIDAY, 11/6
UTEP +6.5 +100 (5 Dimes)

SATURDAY, 11/7
Duke / North Carolina UNDER 58.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
West Virginia -8 -105 (5 Dimes)
Syracuse / Louisville UNDER 51.5 -105 (Heritage)
Troy -9½ -110 (5 Dimes)
Navy +7.5 -105 (Heritage)
Washington -1.5 -105 (Heritage)

BigdaddyQH · 11-06-15, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

THURSDAY, 11/5
Kansas State +17.5 -110 (Heritage)
Missouri +7 -105 (Heritage)

SATURDAY, 11/7
Duke / North Carolina UNDER 58.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
West Virginia -8 -105 (5 Dimes)
Syracuse / Louisville UNDER 51.5 -105 (Heritage)
Troy -9½ -110 (5 Dimes)
Navy +7.5 -105 (Heritage)
Washington -1.5 -105 (Heritage)

I find it hard to believe that you actually took a 5-4 team (UDub) over a team that can still go to the Playoffs (Utah) and actually GAVE a point+. What could possibly direct you to that conclusion? I guess you will just be a typical 'capper, motoring along at around .500 which is a loser.

LT Profits · 11-06-15, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

I find it hard to believe that you actually took a 5-4 team (UDub) over a team that can still go to the Playoffs (Utah) and actually GAVE a point+. What could possibly direct you to that conclusion? I guess you will just be a typical 'capper, motoring along at around .500 which is a loser.

Forget the records, Utah is not as good as its record. The reality is these teams are pretty equal, in fact Washington is fourth in the country in defensive efficiency. So Huskies should be around -3 at home. Biggest key is Washington run defense allowing 3.2 yards per carry containing Booker. If that happens, don't trust Wilson when he HAS to throw to beat you.

SAX27 · 11-06-15, 04:21 PM

As always LT never gets caught up in the insults. If anyone understands LT they know he has a model and lives by that model. LT, you are a class act!!

mikefan1034 · 11-06-15, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

THURSDAY, 11/5
Missouri +7 -105 (Heritage)

YTD: 83-86-2, -5.36

What an awful pick my god u are stupid

Conqueror · 11-06-15, 06:49 PM

LT,

Because of the way your dog picks cash, I played UTEP ML instead of the points. We'll see how it ends.

Isaiah · 11-06-15, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Forget the records, Utah is not as good as its record. The reality is these teams are pretty equal, in fact Washington is fourth in the country in defensive efficiency. So Huskies should be around -3 at home. Biggest key is Washington run defense allowing 3.2 yards per carry containing Booker. If that happens, don't trust Wilson when he HAS to throw to beat you.

After watching Utah's quarterback complete meltdown versus USC I'll never trust the Utes while he is at the helm. Can't recall the last time I've seen a QB that rattled. I genuinely felt sorry for the kid.

Isaiah · 11-06-15, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by SAX27

As always LT never gets caught up in the insults. If anyone understands LT they know he has a model and lives by that model. LT, you are a class act!!

He seems like a congenial fellow. He's one of the few posters on here that I respect and like to see win.

goldust · 11-06-15, 10:42 PM

I'm considering the Huskies too. I don't like them as much as I did USC vs Utah, but I agree it should be a -3 line.

cmoney11 · 11-07-15, 05:19 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

I find it hard to believe that you actually took a 5-4 team (UDub) over a team that can still go to the Playoffs (Utah) and actually GAVE a point+. What could possibly direct you to that conclusion? I guess you will just be a typical 'capper, motoring along at around .500 which is a loser.

I check out your posts sometimes and you give good insight much of the time but why the penetrate are you always so god damn negative. no reason to fuking insult and come down on people who cap their own games and have their own opinions. Why the hell can't you agree to disagree without making it a point to put someone down. People don't disrespect you because of the games you do or don't pick, it's because of your funky ass attitude in every post you make. It's one thing when dudes are claiming to have "locks of the century" and other stupid shi t but it's another thing when you get regular guys that are posting their plays. Stop being such a negative fuk all the time. We all have a common goal, which is to make money, no reason for hurling immature posts at anyone whose picks you don't agree with.

LT Profits · 11-07-15, 09:59 AM

2 CFB Additions Saturday

SATURDAY, 11/7
Duke / North Carolina UNDER 58.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
West Virginia -8 -105 (5 Dimes)
Notre Dame -8 -110 (Bookmaker)
Syracuse / Louisville UNDER 51.5 -105 (Heritage)
Wyoming +9 -105 (Heritage)
Troy -9½ -110 (5 Dimes)
Navy +7.5 -105 (Heritage)
Washington -1.5 -105 (Heritage)

YTD: 85-87-2, -4.41