Cfb 2015

[carolinacapper]

Gonna try my luck again this year in college football. Had some success last year, big believer in keeping accurate and transparent records. Link from last year. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-football-betting/2946569-cfb-2014-a.html
About a month out and starting to look at a few games. One on my radar is FAU at Tulsa. Tulsa -7.5 on 5D right now. LY line was pk and FAU won 50-21. I think Tulsa will be improved this year, new HC Montgomery comes from OC position at Baylor and has 16 starters returning. FAU was 3-9 LY and lost several close games. FAU did not win a road game LY. Line shows support for Tulsa and my early lean is on Tulsa.

Another game I'm looking at is Kentucky vs ULL, KENT -15 right now. Lots of love for Kent this year, ULL has been outclassed by SEC opponents in the past. Need to dig a little deeper before I jump on Kentucky bandwagon but would lean Kent -15.

[carolinacapper]

Time to get started for 2015. Here is link from last year's thread, hoping to have success again this year. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...fb-2014-a.html
All plays are to win 1u. Lines are from 5 Dimes.

Play #1

152 Baylor/SMU Under 74.5

LY Baylor 45-0. QB Petty was injured in first series, held out 2nd half. QB Russell took over and will start this year. He had experience LY and I think he can step in nicely for Baylor...but still not as good as Petty. WR group will be good again and defense is supposed to be better. Not sure how much this matters against SMU who were terrible last year. Baylor scored 60 or more points last year 4 times, Northwestern St 70-6, Buffalo 63-21, TCU 61-58 and Kansas 60-14. This year SMU has new HC in Chad Morris and ret QB Matt Davis is mobile and good fit for Morris offense. SMU should be improved this year, better HC, 16 ret starters...and just simply can't be much worse than last year. Still...LY against Baylor their longest offensive drive was 27 yards and never got inside Baylor 36. I am thinking Baylor puts up about 50-60 pts and SMU might get 10-14 at best. Only concern would be if Baylor HC Briles wants to go for "style points" and keep pounding. Schedule sets up similar to LY with SMU, Lamar, BYE and Rice first 4 weeks. LY SMU, Northwestern St, Buffalo and Iowa St first 4 weeks. Would guess starters will sit much of second half so maybe??? less points. SMU at home might give some effort?...and keep score down some. Overall I'll take my chances that Baylor stays under 70 and SMU can't score more than 2 TD's.

[tennesseety]

Good to have you back! Good luck this year!

[carolinacapper]

Thanks Tennesseety! Good luck to you as well...lets beat the books! You got anything on your radar?

[gangeriver]

Good luck, as an euro bettor I have no idea about NCAAF but I will take your picks than watch the games...

[tennesseety]

I'm not in love with anything just yet. I am far from a good capper though, so always take what I say with a grain of salt, haha.

I like where your head is with UK.

[BeanTownClown88]

I was looking at SB Nations weekly college football picks, usually release closer to game time.
They give good insight and a score prediction, in addition to helping one widdle down the number of games to look at.

By loosely following them last year, I was able to have a good year. This year I dont plan on giving it all back on Ncaab

[crackerjack]

Time to get started for 2015. Here is link from last year's thread, hoping to have success again this year. http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...fb-2014-a.html
All plays are to win 1u. Lines are from 5 Dimes.

Play #1

152 Baylor/SMU Under 74.5

LY Baylor 45-0. QB Petty was injured in first series, held out 2nd half. QB Russell took over and will start this year. He had experience LY and I think he can step in nicely for Baylor...but still not as good as Petty. WR group will be good again and defense is supposed to be better. Not sure how much this matters against SMU who were terrible last year. Baylor scored 60 or more points last year 4 times, Northwestern St 70-6, Buffalo 63-21, TCU 61-58 and Kansas 60-14. This year SMU has new HC in Chad Morris and ret QB Matt Davis is mobile and good fit for Morris offense. SMU should be improved this year, better HC, 16 ret starters...and just simply can't be much worse than last year. Still...LY against Baylor their longest offensive drive was 27 yards and never got inside Baylor 36. I am thinking Baylor puts up about 50-60 pts and SMU might get 10-14 at best. Only concern would be if Baylor HC Briles wants to go for "style points" and keep pounding. Schedule sets up similar to LY with SMU, Lamar, BYE and Rice first 4 weeks. LY SMU, Northwestern St, Buffalo and Iowa St first 4 weeks. Would guess starters will sit much of second half so maybe??? less points. SMU at home might give some effort?...and keep score down some. Overall I'll take my chances that Baylor stays under 70 and SMU can't score more than 2 TD's.

I am surprised by this number. I don't think SMU scores more than 10 points. I also think the coach knows it's a long season and doesn't want to risk injury to starters when the game is well out of hand. That being said, I've been fooled into taking an under on a Baylor game in the past and promised I'd never do it again...

[crackerjack]

This year I dont plan on giving it all back on Ncaab

This x1000. I always grind out a profit in Ncaaf and nfl and give it back in hoops. I'm cashing out early this year...

[BeanTownClown88]

Ncaab is brutal..Im good on hockey but it's kind of boring and when Ncaab season starts up I can't help myself.

not this year I pledge lol..I'll take dogs in the first round of the big tourney then Im out

[carolinacapper]

Play #2

150 Hawaii +7.5

Gotta hold your nose on this one but I like Hawaii here.

COLORADO
- is terrible on the road, 3-35 L38 and haven't covered as road fav since 2007
- bad D, get new coordinator (Leavitt) but gave up 35 TD last year only 3 INT...but will they inprove in 1st game?
-given up 39, 38 , 46 points/game L3 years
-missing stud NT Toupo (out for year-discipline) and DL Hennington (out for year-leg)
-16 ret starters
-QB Liufau is capable, 3200 yd passing LY, 28 TD/15 INT,
-WR Spruce very good 13 rec, 172yds LY vs Hawaii

HAWAII
-RB Lakalaka decent, 123 yds LY vs COL
-USC transfer Wittek at QB,not superstar but can play some, has decent WR Kemp (3 100+ yd games)
only 48% comp LY so hopefully Wittek can improve and make O more balanced
-14 ret starters
-should be able to run ball a little and 149 yd/game avg LY
- D allowed 26.8 points/game avg LY (ret 3strs in secondary #2, #4, #12 tacklers so maybe decent vs Liufau?)

Overall I think that although COLORADO wins, I feel Hawaii will stay close. Combonation of COL being a terrible road team, Hawaii slightly improved with transfers and JUCO players. LY COL wins 21-12...but at home. LY Hawaii at home - WASH 16-17, ORE ST 30-38, N IOWA 27-24, WYO 38-28, NEV 18-26, UTAH ST 35-14, UNLV 37-35

Good Luck to all!

[thunderous]

Good luck this year my man! Good to have you back. Looking forward to your insights

I love the Hawaii play and will sprinkle some on the ML.

[Bet10Heinekens]

Good Luck on the season CarolinaCapper, enjoy reading the analysis

[carolinacapper]

Thanks Bet10! I'm looking into a couple more games,
LEANS
Auburn/L'ville over 58
Not sure if Petrino covers (maybe?) but I'll bet he and Malzhan find a way to put up a bunch of points

Maine +28.5 at BC
Only thing that caught my eye was total is set at 46...seems like an awful lot of points to give with such a low total

NC St -26 vs Troy
Troy was real bad last year and I think NC St will be much improved this year.

Will need to study these and will post if I play any

Good luck to all!

[carolinacapper]

Play #3

180. NC State -26

Write up later...

Good luck to all!

[carolinacapper]

Play #3

180. NC State -26

NC STATE

- QB play should be improved with Brissette and RSF McLendon, Brisette can run...529 yds rush, 59.7% comp, 2606 yd/pass 23/5 TD/INT
team rushed for avg of 471 last two games LY with Brissette running more
-lose top RB Thornton for game (OUT - discipline) but have Dayes 5.5 avg LY and add FR J. Frazier who is a stud
-HC Doeren starts 3rd year, slowly building program, improved from 22.8 pts/gm to 30.2 LY on offense...D much improved going from 5.9 avg yd/play to 5.2 LY
- 15 ret starters
-D should be decent... avg 13.8 ypp

TROY
-1st year HC Brown, no previuos HC exp
-13 ret starters, QB Silvers finished year well 70.5% passer rating
- offense not powerful 21.8 pts/game LY, 16.6 YPP, dont't think they match up well with speed and athleticism on NC State
- D not bad, 12.8 YPP but 5.7 yds/ avg rush allowed could be a problem against NC State

I see this as a 42-14 type game, NC State should handle Troy easily and maybe even roll by more. Home game will help keep motivation going for backups to play hard and hopefully add points.

Good luck to all!

[carolinacapper]

#1 Hawaii +7.5 W
#2 Baylor/SMU u74.5 L
#3. NC State -26 W

2-1 + .9u

I thought this first week had much more line movement than last year, maybe not true but seemed that way to me. Surprised SMU kept it so close in 1H, really didn't think they would score much. NC State came through...I'm keeping an eye on them this year. Turned out my leans were on target, just not enough time to study them to be confident. Happy to be + after first week.

Good luck to all!

[carolinacapper]

Couple of early leans for week 2...LSU -3 and Temple +7.5

Good Luck to all!

[carolinacapper]

Leans for week 2...LSU -3 and Temple +7.5

[carolinacapper]

Play #4

323. LSU -3

LSU
- love RB Fournette and feel LSU will be able to run the ball well
-QB play is unknown but even with average play will be an improvement
-Defense should be strong again

MSU
- I think they will be overvalued this year after Cinderella season LY
-QB Prescott is dynamic but only one legit WR
-Offense did not impress last week
-hate to bet against home underdogs
-HC Mullen has not had a losing record in conference ATS
-Lost a bunch from LY , 7 returning starters

I wanted to get this line early. I expect it to climb during the week. Don't think MSU will do nearly as well this year, seemed to falter LY against tough opponents

[carolinacapper]

Play #5
Hou/L'ville over 55
-Hou should score, looking for some garbage time points

Play #6
Mich St -3 1/2
-Ore QB Adams may get roughed up here, not sold on Ore D

Play #7
FIU/Ind over 56
-don't want to be influenced too much by week 1 but I feel there will be a lot of points here

Play #8
FSU -28

-Golson will be better than people think

Good luck to all!

[red12sox]

Really like Michigan state tonight. Love temple.

[carolinacapper]

#9 UConn. +22.5
#10 Arky -11.5
# 11 NW/Duke under 49

Good luck to all!

[carolinacapper]

Really busy with work this fall, not as much time to cap so results aren't great yet. Pretty much treading water.
WK 1- 2-1 +.9u
WK 2. 2-3 -1.3u
WK 3. 2-1 +.9u

YTD 6-5 +.5u

Play #12 TX A&M -7
Play #13 PENN ST -13.5

Wanted to jump on these early... Will have some more later

Good Luck To all!

[carolinacapper]

Play #14. INDIANA -3.5
#15. UMASS +29
#16. UL-MONROE +38
#17 KENTUCKY -2.5
#18. UTAH +11.5

Good luck to all!

[carolinacapper]

Play #12 TX A&M -7 push
Play #13 PENN ST -13.5 W
#14. INDIANA -3.5 W
#15. UMASS +29 L
#16. UL-MONROE +38 W
#17 KENTUCKY -2.5 W
#18. UTAH +11.5 W

Much better week, spent more time on handicapping and looks like I'll have time this week also.

Week 4 5-1-1 + 3.9u
YTD 11-6-1 +4.4u

[carolinacapper]

#19 Northern Illinois -3
#20 Mississippi -6.5 (-120)
#21 Wisconsin -7.5

Good Luck to All!

[tennesseety]

Great week! I had a disaster week in Week 3 and went 7-1 in Week 4. If only my Vols could figure it out, I would love football again.

[carolinacapper]

Nice week Tennesseety! Starting to wonder about Butch Jones decision-making, tough to lose two games in similar fashion. I find this part of the year gets tougher to handicap, had my worst weeks in middle of season last year after starting hot. Gonna look to avoid that this year. Thoughts about Tenn/Ark? I see Tenn -7.5...not sure if I want to lay over 6.5 even though a home game at night in Neyland is tough for the visitors

[tennesseety]

I'm going to place a small bet on Arky here. This game could go either way. We have so many question marks (like how we only complete 3 passes to WRs against Fla) and don't understand how we are a TD+ favorite here. At some point, we will put 60 mins together (instead of 55 mins), but not sure when that will come.

[carolinacapper]

Last week not very good, looking to get back on track\

Plays so far...

#347 Umass +13.5
#373 Northwestern +10.5
#312 Texas +16.5
#376 Clemson -7 (-120)

Good luck to all!

[carolinacapper]

YTD

13-11-1 +.9u

2-2 this week, not having good year so far. At least still positive for the year, gotta do better next week. Beating this game on a consistent basis is damn hard!

[carolinacapper]

FSU. -6.5
Ga Tech -3.5
Liberty -11
Tx Tech/Kansas under 77

Good luck to all!

[carolinacapper]

2-2 last week again, just spinning my wheels so far this year. Just not putting the time in like I expected I could, and results show it. Coming out with both guns blazing this week. Not on tilt...yet, but something is gonna crack this week, either good or bad!

YTD 15-13-1 +.7u

305. GA Southern +7 - should be a good game, I expect a close one and getting a TD seems good value
308. ECU -2.5 (-120) ECU coming on strong, Temple D is good but don't feel they can stop ECU all night
362. VA Tech -3 (-120) Brewer comes back, Duke offense not impressive as last year, VA Tech at home is a tough out
353. TX A&M +5.5 - still not sure about this team but Ol Miss is not what they were at the start of the year.

Good Luck to All!

[carolinacapper]

0-2 last night, not good. Got two more-

364. Idaho +1
312. Memphis/Tulsa under 77

Good luck to all!