I have TCU at 200-1 to win the Playoff(Hedge advice)

[beefcake]

Got em back in Aug at that price at Intertops when Phil Steele said they would be the most improved team this year!!! I will post ticket if you do not believe me. Wonder how in the hell to hedge this going into last week. Was thinking to bet a 3 team money line of Oregon, Alabama and FSU. One loses I lose the parlay but TCU gets in.Or should I include Ohio St at + money and Baylor just in case they leap frog TCU??

No way frogs lose to Iowa St but you remember West Va losing at home to Pitt years back as 20+ favs when all they needed to do was win to get to BCS title game. Hard to predict what the committee will do when style points are involved with maybe TCU only beating ISU by so much and maybe baylor barely beating KSU or any other kind of stuff like that..I liked the computers better...

Or just let it ride..

Bet 5 bucks at 200-1 I did!!!

[scottgodson1985]

i actually have them at 600-1 on 5Dimes, i bet 3 bucks lol, hopefully they make they playoff and we can hedge, or hopefully they can draw fsu in the playoff's cause that's a coin flip game.

[beefcake]

Dam man.600-1!!!! Great job!!!


Hope we get a chance!!!

[JMUplayer]

screw hedging.... let it ride

[ram1502]

I would start hedging now with iowa st ML myself...if they win that game it looks like they're in and if they lose they're obv out and the bet's a loser.

[gloriesam]

tcu got screwed. how the heck are they behind 2 loss mississippi st? how is mississippi st even ahead of ohio st and mississippi st? both mississippi st and ohio st has suspect defense with great offense and sec isn't that strong this year. with two loss miss st, tcu should be ahead followed by ohio st and then missippi st. in my opinion fsu, ohio st and missippi st are all similar teams wth inconsistency and suspect defense and the ranking should reflect the record with missippi st behind all of them.

[Big Bear]

basically your best hedge opportunity is to bet big on FSU ML this weekend against Georgia Tech.

Because if Georgia Tech beats FSU then i promise you TCU will get in the Final 4.

[beefcake]

Might not have to do anything now except maybe a sprinkle on Iowa St. They are #3!!! They are almost a shoo in!!!

[Big Bear]

iowa state could play tcu 5,000 times and not win once.


TCU will be penalize for their weak ass schedule

[hawaiianking]

I'll take Georgia Tech over a weak FSU d-fence.
I'll bet they run some big plays on them too.

Now I know they have a bad d-fence aswell but there D has been stepping up.

[jtoler]

They may not been in the playoffs, dont think committee looks favorably upon them, took them forever to play a game outside of Texas and theyve only played a few outside of Texas.

[beefcake]

Confused now on how to hedge.Not sure if Oregon loses helps or hurts them.

[Buckeye]

Oh yeah the Committee does not favorable on them. What? They moved up from the fifth spot to the third spot. Where are you getting your information?

[jtoler]

Only because they dislike FSU even more, Im going on what I heard on the radio from some knowledgeable guys.

[ram1502]

iowa state could play tcu 5,000 times and not win once.


TCU will be penalize for their weak ass schedule

you would say the same thing about kansas and they should have beaten tcu...no team is dominant this year. Any team can lose any day.

[PaperTrail07]

TCU will get in....
Wait until selected...see the games ahead...try to predict outcomes/future lines for hedging and go from there...

[beefcake]

Would think Oregon would slight fav and FSU slight fav vs TCU..Alabama about 7-9

[irishstuey]

I would hate to have Baylor on my ticket. Same record with a head to head win. Hard to take the loser of that game.

[beefcake]

5 dimes is offering a buyout at -525 field wins title vs TCU.No thanks not using 525 bucks of 1000 payout to make 100

[playmaker79]

5 dimes is offering a buyout at -525 field wins title vs TCU.No thanks not using 525 bucks of 1000 payout to make 100

but out that's the best you are going to do in this scenario. If you hedge on a couple teams, and then hedge again one or more times once you get it the semis, you are going to do even worse.

tcu is -525 right now basically because everyone thinks they are going to beat Iowa state and stay ahead of baylor(the committee sorts of tipped us of to that by the move to 3). I don't think tcu needs any help(unless tosu or Baylor win by like 50 pts perhaps)....field vs tcu is -525 now, and maybe that same number or even higher(if Bama wins and looks good...Oregon has already done so) once they do make the playoff. Hedging before the playoff on other teams is stupid stupid stupid...

if you don't want to ride the thing out, then the best play(by far) is to take that -525 field number. I know you don't want to hear that, but you are believing you are in a much stronger position than you are. I think that -525 number is generous and may increase if Bama wins today since tcu is either going to draw Bama or Oregon in the first round and not fsu.

Think about it like this- if tcu was playing Oregon today and then Bama next week, the ml odds on those games would be -170 and -250 I'd guess. Guess what? Parlaying tcu to win those(and those are likely back to back opponents) pays more than tcu +500. If you really can get field for -525 right now(maybe not with Oregon looking good last night), then I would jump on it with that hedge....if you really want to hedge. Pissing around by hedging in games that won't even increase thus odds for the next step is stupid.

[Dmoneytx]

Best of luck Beefer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Pulling for you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[2daBank]

but out that's the best you are going to do in this scenario. If you hedge on a couple teams, and then hedge again one or more times once you get it the semis, you are going to do even worse.

tcu is -525 right now basically because everyone thinks they are going to beat Iowa state and stay ahead of baylor(the committee sorts of tipped us of to that by the move to 3). I don't think tcu needs any help(unless tosu or Baylor win by like 50 pts perhaps)....field vs tcu is -525 now, and maybe that same number or even higher(if Bama wins and looks good...Oregon has already done so) once they do make the playoff. Hedging before the playoff on other teams is stupid stupid stupid...

if you don't want to ride the thing out, then the best play(by far) is to take that -525 field number. I know you don't want to hear that, but you are believing you are in a much stronger position than you are. I think that -525 number is generous and may increase if Bama wins today since tcu is either going to draw Bama or Oregon in the first round and not fsu.

Think about it like this- if tcu was playing Oregon today and then Bama next week, the ml odds on those games would be -170 and -250 I'd guess. Guess what? Parlaying tcu to win those(and those are likely back to back opponents) pays more than tcu +500. If you really can get field for -525 right now(maybe not with Oregon looking good last night), then I would jump on it with that hedge....if you really want to hedge. Pissing around by hedging in games that won't even increase thus odds for the next step is stupid.

truly the only play if so inclined to hedge (i dont see much reason to on a $5 bet but that me). -525 seems more than generous considering who the hell knows wtf the committee gonna do even if things shake out as planned today? with the way they have seemed to shuffle teams around on a whim it hard for me to believe they couldnt conceivably push tcu back behind fsu, baylor, and osu if they all look impressive against legit competition..

[beefcake]

but out that's the best you are going to do in this scenario. If you hedge on a couple teams, and then hedge again one or more times once you get it the semis, you are going to do even worse.

tcu is -525 right now basically because everyone thinks they are going to beat Iowa state and stay ahead of baylor(the committee sorts of tipped us of to that by the move to 3). I don't think tcu needs any help(unless tosu or Baylor win by like 50 pts perhaps)....field vs tcu is -525 now, and maybe that same number or even higher(if Bama wins and looks good...Oregon has already done so) once they do make the playoff. Hedging before the playoff on other teams is stupid stupid stupid...

if you don't want to ride the thing out, then the best play(by far) is to take that -525 field number. I know you don't want to hear that, but you are believing you are in a much stronger position than you are. I think that -525 number is generous and may increase if Bama wins today since tcu is either going to draw Bama or Oregon in the first round and not fsu.

Think about it like this- if tcu was playing Oregon today and then Bama next week, the ml odds on those games would be -170 and -250 I'd guess. Guess what? Parlaying tcu to win those(and those are likely back to back opponents) pays more than tcu +500. If you really can get field for -525 right now(maybe not with Oregon looking good last night), then I would jump on it with that hedge....if you really want to hedge. Pissing around by hedging in games that won't even increase thus odds for the next step is stupid.

Could not have been more prophetic..I think I may be ******..but on a 5 dollar bet I am glad I let it ride. Still 5 dimes is offering -275 OSU makes playoff...Still going to let it ride..Only 5 bucks...

[thetrinity]

well this sucks

[beefcake]

Yeah, blew ass...Still a 5 buck bet lasted 4 months...Bang for your buck.Be dam Sure if I had put 20 on the future..would have hedged..

[jtoler]

They may not been in the playoffs, dont think committee looks favorably upon them, took them forever to play a game outside of Texas and theyve only played a few outside of Texas.