Somebody convince me that Washington has a real shot at beating Cal this Satruday.

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  • Ralphie Halves
    SBR MVP
    • 12-13-09
    • 4507

    #1
    Somebody convince me that Washington has a real shot at beating Cal this Satruday.
    This is the one game that jumped out at me huge early in the week, and like a putz I waited and no surprise it went from Cal +2 to Cal -3.5. I'm still betting it big.

    Not one team in NCAA respects Washington's passing offense. Cyler Miles manages the game nicely, but not anyone you'd have to game plan around. Jared Goff on the other hand for Cal has been off the charts. Sonny Dykes' system has been proven to be the real deal. We saw it at La Tech, who was an ATM for bettors that were onto them all season when Dykes was there. Dykes takes that system to a Pac-12 doormat, and now Cal is 4-1 with their only loss being a very close one to Arizona.

    Cal gives up points, but they've all been to teams that can really air it out, and Washington cannot. Washington's D gave up 52 to another high-powered offense in Eastern Washington, and though they're one of the best FCS teams out there, they're still FCS, and they hung 52 on Washington. Washington's D has been impressive points-wise lately, but all against teams like Illinois, Georgia State, and Stanford who have sub-par passing offenses.

    Far from a gimmie, but I was expecting this line to be in the double digits favoring Cal. If Washington DOES show a balanced attack, and if Cal DOES sputter on offense, it will be not only unlikely, but the first time either one has happened all season. That's the only chance Washington wins or even covers.

    The game is in Berkeley.

    Riding the momentum and taking Cal -3.5. I'd be afraid of that number in the NFL, but not in a game like this. I don't think the linesmakers have caught up to Cal just yet. It took them most of the season to catch up to Dykes' La Tech team.

    I'm sure there ARE reasons Washington could pull this out, but not convincing enough to bet the other side IMO.

    What do you guys think?
  • Eddy Munny
    Benched
    • 08-13-13
    • 15769

    #2
    Because Cal plays ping pong matches, not football games. What overriding value do you find in a ping pong match? These teams are just going to trade punches until someone makes a play on defense or special teams. This is basically the same Cal squad we got last year... I don't see anything to make me believe they've suddenly made some quantum leap and left U-Dub in the dust.

    The Huskies return 14 starters from a team that went 9-4 last year, including a 41-17 victory over Cal. Washington hasn't quite been the same team, but they are transitioning from Keith Price to Cyler Miles, who's talented, but green. It's also Chris Peterson's first year as head coach at the university so a learning curve was to be expected. They haven't really put it all together yet, but coming out of a bye week, who knows?

    I just don't really see the line as being off. It's saying, on a neutral field, it's a pick'em. Sounds about right to me. You're nuts if you think Cal deserves to be a double digit favorite. Their only DD victory this year came against Sacramento St.
    Comment
    • Ralphie Halves
      SBR MVP
      • 12-13-09
      • 4507

      #3
      Originally posted by Eddy Munny
      Because Cal plays ping pong matches, not football games. What overriding value do you find in a ping pong match? These teams are just going to trade punches until someone makes a play on defense or special teams. This is basically the same Cal squad we got last year... I don't see anything to make me believe they've suddenly made some quantum leap and left U-Dub in the dust.

      The Huskies return 14 starters from a team that went 9-4 last year, including a 41-17 victory over Cal. Washington hasn't quite been the same team, but they are transitioning from Keith Price to Cyler Miles, who's talented, but green. It's also Chris Peterson's first year as head coach at the university so a learning curve was to be expected. They haven't really put it all together yet, but coming out of a bye week, who knows?

      I just don't really see the line as being off. It's saying, on a neutral field, it's a pick'em. Sounds about right to me. You're nuts if you think Cal deserves to be a double digit favorite. Their only DD victory this year came against Sacramento St.
      I like the analysis. Disagree strongly with the idea this is the same team as the 1-10 disasters last year.

      I just think it's a really bad matchup. You do have lots of returning seniors for UW, but seniors who spent 3-4 years in an entirely different system under coach Sark. I think Dykes' system has taken the Pac-12 by storm, in ways nobody thought possible. UW has to prove they can stop a great passing team, or they're in big trouble in the Pac-12 this year. They haven't shown they can yet. If this is the game they show us that, then I lose my bet, but I'm betting that they're not there yet.
      Comment
      • KANSAS24
        SBR MVP
        • 01-28-09
        • 2492

        #4
        Be carefull on this one!
        Comment
        • The_Kid
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-09-08
          • 5049

          #5
          Forget about a side. Why not just play the over?
          Comment
          • TiredPro
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 01-17-12
            • 672

            #6
            Washington is much better team than Cal. Cal defense is one of the worst I have seen. If you bet the game, don't even think of watching it, your heart may attack you.
            Comment
            • KANSAS24
              SBR MVP
              • 01-28-09
              • 2492

              #7
              [QUOTE=KANSAS24;22747041]Be carefull on this one![/QUOTE
              WHAT I MENT WAS I DO LIKE WASH
              Comment
              • Ralphie Halves
                SBR MVP
                • 12-13-09
                • 4507

                #8
                Originally posted by TiredPro
                Washington is much better team than Cal. Cal defense is one of the worst I have seen. If you bet the game, don't even think of watching it, your heart may attack you.
                Definitely won't watch it, I try not to.

                The one thing I will say about Cal's D, is while it's not good, they did play some major air assault teams in WSU, Arizona and Colorado, who is now a legit scoring threat. I can't see them letting up as many points as they did against those guys.
                Comment
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