How about Maryland at Penn State on 11/1. Penn State's SU record against Maryland is 35-1-1. I sure do not see any change in this trend this season. Penn State giving the ML looks like a sure winner.
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Easiest play of the year is Eastern Washington vs Sam Houston.
It opened at EW +1, it's now EW-4 and that's still not enough.
EW has one of the best players in the country at QB.
Of course JMO but I like the smaller schools as a lot of times the lines aren't tight at all on them. Most people never even look at them.Comment -
Didn't Eastern Washington upset Oregon State last season? I believe that they are also the team that has the silly Red Field. Where are they playing this game at?Comment -
I wonder why the line opened at 1. EWU should be abot a TD favorite.Comment -
I am just curious what easiest play means?
Seems like a play of words in which everyone assumes they clearly know what the meaning of the phrase is but in reality if everyone was honest and sat down to ponder such a statement noone would have any clue.Comment -
It means "no brainer". If a team is 35-1 against another team, the winning team is probably a real good ML wager, especially when hosting the team they love to beat up on.Comment -
That depends on what the odds are for that game. There is no "GOY" odds posted, so it is hard to say. Maryland should be 5-3 or 4-4 going into the game. They have a bye after that game. Penn State could be 6-1 or 5-2 going into the game. Hard to say, but -500 could be best case scenario.Comment -
Agreed, Maryland always shits the bedComment -
Maryland does look weak again. PSU still bringing in top talent all around and Hackenberg looks like he's on his way to a solid career. Nice info on Eastern Washington as well, posting so I can keep these games in mind.
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Hey. I have been searching around for week 1 lines but having trouble finding some of the games im interested in. Cal@Northwestern for example. Any site have the full list? ThxComment -
Northwestern opened up at -9 1/2 at home vs Cal. All these lines are GOY lines from the Golden Nugget in Vegas. I do not waste my time with Off Shore sites so I hae no idea who, if anyone, has those lines. All I know is that the Greek tried two years ago to post GOY lines and lost their tails.Comment -
Thanks man. Appreciate the info. its a little early for me to lay anything but I like to know where they open in vegas. I dislike the offshore books as well. I use a local as im quite aways away from vegas. Thanks again and BOLComment -
lolComment -
The score you have told it is showing that ML will definitely lose the match. But who knows what will happen at the main time, means destiny is also something that can able to change the game.Comment -
Mich State +13 vs Oregon- So easy, Oregon sucks against these teams will be close.Comment -
A very dangerous play. Michigan State has never played a team with this much speed. The Big 10 is like a snail compared to the Pac 12 when it comes to speed. Oregon has a huge advantage here because they play Stanford every year, and Stanford is a slow plodding team, just like Michigan State is. Michigan State's offense is similar to Oregon's only in a much slower pace. That is a huge advantage for Oregon. With SOS now being very meaningful, Oregon will not let up on MSU. The losing conference in this game will take a pretty big SOS hit. This game is a pass for me, but gun to head, I take Oregon and give the 13 points. There is a reason why the Big 10 is such a lousy conference.Comment -
Obviously you do not play GOY's. Let me tell you how this works. The rule is quite simple. The earlier the game is pplayed, the less movement you will see as far as the lines go. Now this game is scheduled for 9/8. It is the 2nd game of the season for each team. It is rare that this game moves more than a point or so either way. If this line was going to move, it would have already.
Now it appears that you are a Big 10 fan because there is no way that a knowledgeable fan can consider Ohio State to be a fast team. Clemson proved that in the Orange Bowl. If you really think that this line will come down to 7, then I suggest you spend this season following people who know how lines work. This is why I normally win over the long run in a season and most (85%) people lose. I know what to exxpect from the lines. It is rather obvious that you do not.
Michigan State's problem is this. They need their offense to step it up big time until their defense, with 6 new starters, catches up. That simply cannot be done in game 2 of the season agaist a team that is favored to end up in the Playoffs and who has a Heisman Candidate at QB.Comment -
Not true. Let me give you an example of a gambling rule that most amateur players break all of the time. The rule is simple. NEVER bet against a streak. Now some may have a different definition of a streak, but once a streak is established under your definition, never wager agaist it. Either play it or pass. The reasoning is so simple that most amateurs do not even see it. If you wager on a streak, and the streak continues, you can win many times, but you can only lose ONCE. It does not get any simpler than that, yet so many alleged gamblers totally ignore that rule. Penn State is 35-1-1 S/U against Maryand. Either take PSU S?U and give the ML or do not wager at all.Comment -
Three reasons I disagree....
1) All "streaks" aren't created equal. Whoever coined the phrase "never bet against a streak" (likely some capper out for personal gain anyway) was probably not talking about streaks that began back before any of the players were born. It's illogical. The same people that believe in streaks like that, also believe in hot dice at a craps table. So "NEVER bet against a streak", huh? So if red hits on a roulette table 6 times in a row, the sharp move is on red again? Vegas spends money on those light-up boards at roulette and baccarat tables to fool you into thinking that very thing.
2) Professional gamblers, the few I know that make a living off of it, bet against streaks all the time, and do well with it. Why? Because square money pays attention to streaks as opposed to looking at the game itself, and oddsmakers know this. So if it is actually a "Gambling Rule", it's a really bad one.
3) To your point about jumping on streaks and following them, as anyone who has followed professional handicappers can tell you, once you find out about a streak, it's often too late. For every one of these 35-1-1 streaks you can present, there are hundreds to the contrary, but nobody talks about them anymore because they're over, so we forget about them. The one exception I see right now is umpire streakers, because those show real tendencies, but it looks like the books have gotten more keen on them this year, and like I said, as soon as you see one that looks legit, you'll often bet it and lose.
I'd argue too that for the first time since that streak began, Maryland has the better HC especially if you factor in Franklin having to implement his system and finding out which players are best where.
Anyway, if you follow probabilities and logic, this streak is nothing more than a fun fact.
What DJ Dozier did for PSU back in the 80s has absolutely zero to do with what will happen this year. Z-E-R-O.Comment -
I thank you for your response, but it has all kinds of inaccuracies in it. I do not kow the people who you call "professional gamblers" but I can promise you that they are losers if they constantly wager against a streak. If you need proof of this, I suggest that youe roulette find out what happened to Wayne Allyn Root, who was the father of fading streaks. If he is still in business, it is only because his daddy gave him more money. You also do not understand the concept of streaks. You mention the roulette table. The fact of the matter is this. It is a 50/50 (minus the 0 and 00) proposition that the ball will fall in either a black or red space. It is also a mathematical FACT (not probability) that patterns develop, and a pattern is just another name for a streak.
Now as far as Maryland vs Penn State this season, first the game is at Beaver Stadium. Secondly, are you trying to tell me that
Randy Edsell, with his 13-24 record at Maryland is a better HC than James Franklin is? The same James Franklin who went 24-15 in three years in the SEC, which is miles tougher than the ACC, where Edsell compiled his record of failure.
I suggest that you rethink your position. It is rather obvious that you are concerned about turning a profit when you wager. The difference between you and myself is that my only concern is how much of a profit I turn, because I know that I will turn a profit. There is no question of that. I use several methods that are very risky financially, but rarely fail. Taking Penn State and giving the ML is just one example. Are you going to take Maryland and the ML? I make one wager like this every week. My jealous enemies out there often criticize it saying that one loss could wipe out all profits that I make in a season. This is correct, but the fact is that I have NOT lost a wager of this kind in 3 YEARS. That is 48-0. It certainly is a risk, but if you are not willing to take such a risk to make what is just about a guaranteed income every week, then you do not know the secrets to being a successful gambler. I will list my Ml game of the week every week of the season that I play one. I rariely miss a week, but sometimes I just do not like what I see. I can tell you right now that I have possibilities listed, such as Alabama hosting Florida Atlantic on 9/6. By the same token, I would not touch Florida hosting Eastern Michigan on the same day.Comment -
Well no, PSU should be favored and likely win, no argument there. It's just the logic behind it I disagreed with. I'm saying look at the game factors more than a streak that IMO has no real bearing on the outcome of the game. I do think Edsall is a good coach that took over a dead program, and we need a few more years to see how that whole thing hashes out. It could be Bill Belichek coaching PSU, that first game under a new coach and system is often not your best performance for obvious reasons. Is Edsall better? Who knows, but the coaching ADVANTAGE right now for week 1 is in Maryland's favor here IMO. PSU lost a coach who could not possibly have done a better job than he did, O'Brien was amazing. Franklin resurrected an SEC program, and Edsall took a program that almost got dropped back down to division II to the friggin Fiesta Bowl. Let's not start calling the guy mediocre just yet here.
The pros that I know don't purposely bet against streaks, they simply ignore them, and sometimes the side they take just happens to be on the other side of the streak. That's all.
For roulette, I couldn't quite understand what you were getting at, but just to clarify, previous outcomes of what numbers hit at the table have no influence whatsoever on what's coming next. None. None. Yes, streaks do happen, but you don't know when they are going to start and when they are going to end, so there is no advantage there. Unless you believe in voodoo, the chance of landing on red is still 47.37% on a 00 board. There are a lot of people that do believe in the fallacy of luck and streaks at the roulette table, and this is one of many reasons why Vegas will lose a battle here and there, but always win the war.
I make one wager like this every week. My jealous enemies out there often criticize it saying that one loss could wipe out all profits that I make in a season. This is correct, but the fact is that I have NOT lost a wager of this kind in 3 YEARS. That is 48-0. It certainly is a risk, but if you are not willing to take such a risk to make what is just about a guaranteed income every week, then you do not know the secrets to being a successful gambler.
And you've completely lost me here. So you're pretty much saying yourself it's just a matter of time, no? What goes up, just keeps going up? A real "enemy" would encourage you to keep doing that until it inevitably collapses and leaves you with nothing. A lot of people back in the day would do that with Mike Tyson fights. They would drop down 100K, and even if a win only netted them 5K, it was still a quick 5% return on their investment. They probably thought they had "unlocked the secrets to successful gambling" too. Then Buster Douglass happened.
Wayne Allen Root is nothing more than a huckster, and a very good one. Same as Steve Stevens and all of those other spaghetti clowns that advertise on the radio, he knows the real money is in subscription fees. All you have to do is pretend like you have secret "information" (though you never have to prove it. Your "information" can be the local newspaper for all anyone knows.), hire a few of life's leftovers to overly-aggressively sell the product, and count your money. You don't have to bet a dime, and they usually don't. "Fading streaks" was just one of many half-assed gimmicks he used. Home dogs was another one, as if he himself invented that strategy. He was bad because he was bad, not because of one particular angle.
So all I'm saying is that logic and probability always wins out when it's all said and done. What DOES come to an end eventually are things like streaks and luck. Where you'll be when it finally does come to an end depends on your ability to understand this and manage your money accordingly.
Whether we agree or disagree, we all need to stick together. There are only a handful of us in the NCAAF forum that know what they're talking about, have the passion for it, and don't troll. Looking forward to the banter ahead.Comment -
He was broke when he started this thread. as usual.Comment -
How funny is this one?
Oh yeah, the "EASIEST PLAY OF THE YEAR" Lost.
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This dude has the nerve to troll the sh!t out of SBR on the daily lol BigDummyHQ is the ultimate fraud also lol Not to mention the guy post -500 losers lol This FUKC sank more people on this forum then laker and JJ combined lol its close though
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