florida state vs clemson

GWOZOZO · 10-18-13, 09:01 AM

Clemson's secondary is suspect

the1outlaw · 10-18-13, 09:21 AM

Who has FSU beaten this year? They haven't played anyone with the speed Clemson has at WR. If anybody's secondary is suspect, it is FSU. Travis Blanks is supposed to be back for Clemson as well so that will help their secondary a lot. Don't forget that Clemson relies heavily on their pass rush from Beasley, Crawford, and Jarrett up front who have been stellar this year. It is a tossup game IMO and with Clemson being at home at night, they get a slight edge for me. I will be there and I'm expecting it to be louder than it was against Miami several years ago. Crowd noise will be a factor for Winston. I've seen so many teams get false start penalties just because it was so loud...Don't bet against Clemson in this one.

isotopes · 10-18-13, 10:13 AM

FSU

M.W. · 10-18-13, 10:27 AM

I think FSU is the better team, but it's hard to have much confidence in that opinion.

VenomLugz · 10-18-13, 11:52 AM

Clemson!

KardiacKid · 10-18-13, 12:02 PM

Stop listening to ESPN. Clemson will win this game.

Look - Winston is a fine, fine football player. He may even be great before it is all said an done. However, right now, he is a RS Freshman with no experience going into a hostile environment and producing. He is a RS Freshman who has yet to face any real pass rush or any adversity whatsoever. That's fine if you want to put your eggs in the basket, but I won't. Give me the 3-year starter, SR QB who has played on big stages and won. Give me the SR QB who has faced Top 10 defenses and beat them.

Furthermore, in addition to the more experienced QB, Clemson has the better defense (leads the NCAA in sacks and TFL) and the most explosive player on both sides of the ball (Sammy Watkins and Vic Beasley). FSU team sacks: 10; Vic Beasley sacks: 9.

At some point - Jimbo will Jimbo

A couple numbers to consider: Last year, FSU was 0-5 ATS as the road favorite. Dabo Swinney is 8-0 against ACC teams the after losing to them on the road. FSU is 1-2 coming off of a bye week under Jimbo - including road loses to WF and NCST. Only win was a last season in which they needed a TD with 40 seconds left to beat a bad VT team. FSU hasn't won in Death Valley in 12 years.

Clemson 34, FSU 30

JabooFootball · 10-18-13, 12:10 PM

Manziel blew the FR QB on the road in hostile enviroment out of the water last year and Jameis is a less erratic Manziel. Im an FSU homer so it clouds my judgement, but I agree the game is essentially a coinflip. The deciding factor will be Clemsons DL vs FSU Oline and FSU Secondary vs Clemson WR. We are gonna be in for a treat saturday night fellas.

wildcorndog · 10-18-13, 12:10 PM

FSU.... Read my diamonds for the answers you seek my son.

JabooFootball · 10-18-13, 12:14 PM

Also want to point out that FSU's ground game is lightyears ahead of Clemson's.

Karlos Williams Rushing TD 6
Clemson RB's combined Rushing TDs 6

KardiacKid · 10-18-13, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by JabooFootball

Manziel blew the FR QB on the road in hostile enviroment out of the water last year and Jameis is a less erratic Manziel. Im an FSU homer so it clouds my judgement, but I agree the game is essentially a coinflip. The deciding factor will be Clemsons DL vs FSU Oline and FSU Secondary vs Clemson WR. We are gonna be in for a treat saturday night fellas.

Picking the outlier doesn't prove anything. I too could go find every SR QB who's beaten a Top 5 team at home and use them as an example - but again, it would be a meaningless exercise that doesn't prove anything.

Take emotion out of it and look at it from a logical perspective. Aaron Murray and the UGA OL said it was extremely difficult to run their offense in that environment because they could not hear anything. Murray was a SR with a veteran OL - and he had trouble. Do you really think Winston is going to be unphased? It's absolutely possible. Winston may come in and ball out of control. However, logic says otherwise.

If Clemson loses this game, I will be utterly and completely shocked.

JabooFootball · 10-18-13, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by KardiacKid

Picking the outlier doesn't prove anything. I too could go find every SR QB who's beaten a Top 5 team at home and use them as an example - but again, it would be a meaningless exercise that doesn't prove anything.

Take emotion out of it and look at it from a logical perspective. Aaron Murray and the UGA OL said it was extremely difficult to run their offense in that environment because they could not hear anything. Murray was a SR with a veteran OL - and he had trouble. Do you really think Winston is going to be unphased? It's absolutely possible. Winston may come in and ball out of control. However, logic says otherwise.

If Clemson loses this game, I will be utterly and completely shocked.

Aaron Murray has a long history of problems outside of athens, I follow UGA pretty closely (Mark Richt is obviously in the Bowden coaching bloodline and is a family friend as my father was a doctor for the team under bowden) Obviously I have a homer lean towards the noles but I agree with the vast majority of folks that this game is going to be a tossup and I didnt say in what direction either. The answer, in a word, is yes- I think one of the most highly touted recruits of all time who has proven he can run the offense will be relatively unphased. I may be wrong, but I worry much more about our defense than I do our offense.

KardiacKid · 10-18-13, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by JabooFootball

Also want to point out that FSU's ground game is lightyears ahead of Clemson's.

Karlos Williams Rushing TD 6
Clemson RB's combined Rushing TDs 6

Your analysis of TD's is really not relevant because you are clearly not understanding the Clemson ground game. Tajh Boyd gets the ball often inside the 10 and therefore takes TD's away from the RB's. He is used more in short yardage than the RB's. You would have to include Boyd's 5 rushing TD's bringing Clemson's total to 11 in order to properly compare numbers.

Clemson just held the nation's leading rusher to 70 yards, 0 TD's and 2.9 YPC. The same RB that went for 149 yards and 5.3 YPC vs FSU.

Gameday · 10-18-13, 12:45 PM

What defense bigger and faster than FSUs has Clemson played this year? None. Florida State has 3 NFL caliber RBs along with equal talent at WR. Jameis Winston Absolutely loves a big stage so this will be the biggest hes ever played on. I think the kid has that X-factor that is needed to win. Florida State out matches them or equals their matchups on all sides of the ball. Look for a high scoring back and fourth war but in the end FSU will grind out a 10 point win with their work-horses late in the game. FSUs defense is far superior than Georgia's and any other team Clemson has played.

FSU -3
Over 64

JabooFootball · 10-18-13, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by KardiacKid

Your analysis of TD's is really not relevant because you are clearly not understanding the Clemson ground game. Tajh Boyd gets the ball often inside the 10 and therefore takes TD's away from the RB's. He is used more in short yardage than the RB's. You would have to include Boyd's 5 rushing TD's bringing Clemson's total to 11 in order to properly compare numbers.

Clemson just held the nation's leading rusher to 70 yards, 0 TD's and 2.9 YPC. The same RB that went for 149 yards and 5.3 YPC vs FSU.

I never said Clemson's rush defense wasnt superior. I said Florida State ground game was superior to Clemsons.

Florida State Avg team rushing avg 6 ypc. Florida States top 3 rushers (Freeman, Williams, Wilder) avg 7.1 YPC.
Clemson Avg team Rushing 4 YPC. Clemson top 3 Rushers (Mcdowell, Boyd, Brooks) Avg 4.2 YPC

Clemson did phenomenal against Andre Williams, who is one of my favorite guys to watch these days. Florida States game is nothing like BCs. Its much more similar to the Alabama system where you have 3 guys who would start at most programs in the country. They wear down your defense and draw your backs in then play action you and beat you deep.

Again. I am not saying Florida State blows Clemson out, Im not even saying they win. I imagine drunk me will make a homer play on them tomorrow night though lol. Im simply saying both teams have the edge in different categories.

chino08 · 10-18-13, 01:01 PM

I get Boyd at home with plus money vs a red shirt freshman QB (i no he is the man) but is untested besides a monday night game against pitt

This is the type a game where one over throw, or bad decision late in the game will cost you. Ill take the more veteran team, at home in a hostile environment

Give me Clemson with + money.......but its going to be a really good game.

as a side note, i think Winston will be a star, even at the next level......just not quite his time yet.

JabooFootball · 10-18-13, 01:06 PM

Side note- there was only 1 florida state clemson game decided by 3 points in the last 10 (and 2 in the last 20)... If you favor clemson penetrate the juice play the ML

TexasJayhawk · 10-19-13, 01:04 AM

FSU is as solid as they come...the problem is they've had one of the softest schedules in FBS (#120 according to Football Outsiders). Clemson beat a 100% healthy Georgia. A top SEC school like UGA (when 100% healthy) has more talent and depth than any ACC school possesses. And yet UGA lost...Clemson +3.5 (5 dimes earlier Fri night) for me.

7Shots · 10-19-13, 01:31 AM

Leaning Clemson +145

TPowell · 10-19-13, 01:47 AM

LOL so FSU is decidedly better than Clemson? Thats right FSU beat.... well, they haven't lost yet.

El_Zilcho · 10-19-13, 02:43 AM

I'm not touching this game, but FSU hasn't really been tested. Jameis Winston hasn't been tested, but looks pretty damn good. That being said, there is rarely a better substitute for experience. People seem to sleep on Clemson's D as well.
FSU is known for just totally f-cking up big games anyway.

Demonata · 10-19-13, 06:48 AM

Clemson underdog at home with a proven Boyd against a freshman who's putting up numbers against average teams. If they can handle georgia, they certainly can handle florida state.

JabooFootball · 10-19-13, 07:29 AM

Originally posted by Demonata

Clemson underdog at home with a proven Boyd against a freshman who's putting up numbers against average teams. If they can handle georgia, they certainly can handle florida state.

Florifa State has more depth at almost every position than UGA.

Gameday · 10-19-13, 09:34 AM

Agreed. Florida State is going win. I expect Clemson to get a nice lead early maybe 14-21 points and FSU will take it back killing the momentum in Death Valley then grinding out a win in the fourth with Boyd forcing throws which will lead to a turnover and a FSU cover.

chosen4th · 10-19-13, 09:38 AM

Im a big ACC guy, and I am too scared to bet this.. i have absolutely no idea which way this will go.. FSU blew out my turtles, and i wasnt expecting that at all, and clemson could have lost to BC last week... FSU is the only play here IMO, but i dunno about that

dymd3z · 10-19-13, 09:40 AM

FSU ! If Clemson gets down early, I think they will have a hard time against FSU.. I'm staying away from it though!

BMoreBird · 10-19-13, 03:50 PM

i got fsu -3 at -110 friday. now its -5.5 .... super odd line shift here.

Pivotpoint · 10-19-13, 04:20 PM

I just keep adding as numbers climb. +3 1/2, +4 , and now + 4 1/2.

Going to be either really right or really wrong.

I really like FSU. One of my favorite teams.

But, take a deep breath boys. You really want to lay 4 1/2 now to Clemson, in Death Valley, under the lights with a freshman QB? Maybe you'll be right, seems brave to me.

Winston has looked awesome, hats off to the kid. But seriously, this ain't the raucous crowds of BC after tea and Pitt after whatever the hell they do. Crowd will be jacked and Winston has seen nothing this hostile. Nothing.

Sammy Watkins and Martavis Bryant are going to cause problems for FSU's smaller DB's. Boyd will get the ball up in the air to them, give them opp's to make plays. They will.

FSU has the better D, but not hard to see Tigs step up in this spot. Clemson is vunerable here if Noles can run the ball. I think they'll focus on stoping the run and containing Winston. Force him to read disquised blitz schemes. Forget about audibles, especially red zone, 3rd and long.

Tigs have Veteran PK, helps seal the deal. How many crushing losses have FSU backers seen with missed FG's over the years?

I'm on the Tigers with the Senior QB, under the lights after home cooking, fueled by a rabid, drunk sea of orange.

Looking forward to a great games. Hope the refs don't penetrate it up with bs targeting calls and flags.