I told myself I wasn't going to do write-ups this year. I'm doing an email analysis for a few friends so I figured I'd share here as well, but they won't be as in-depth or statistical as the last two years. If they give you a new/different angle to look at a game, that's great, but don't take them as locks or guarantees or anything of the sort. All lines taken from 5Dimes.eu. Here we go, let's roll:
Incoming Record
2011 NCAAF Write Ups 11-11 (+8.3u)
2012 NCAAF Write Ups 3-3 (+25.0u)
Overall 14-14 (+33.3u)
UK @ WKU - Last year's WKU win was fluky and couldn't happen without more bad luck to UK than I'll take the time to account. Talent-wise, WKU is stacked at OL, but anemic at most other positions. Andrews (RB) is going to have a big game (he has ever since he's begun playing), but with Jakes gone he leaves a hole at QB too big for any WKU player to fill. On the Kentucky side of things, there is a bevy of offensive weaponry. This game will be won by defensive play-calling and superior LB play by Kentucky. UK 30 - WKU 24. The play: UK -4 @ -117 for 2u
Georgia @ Clemson - I still have a hard time saying it, but Georgia is underrated at #5, they've returned a potent offensive corp with 10 starters (they lost an WR1 in Tavarres King, but Murray spread the ball well last year with 11 different players with TDs last season). Gurley is one of those freak running backs, that despite being only a sophomore at 6'1" and about 230 lbs, runs downhill from the point he touches the ball averaging 6.3 yards per carry with 17 TDs last year. When Gurley comes out, Marshall comes in and burns defenses. Clemson is offensively potent as well, but with the loss of Andre Ellington, they lose a lot of trickery in the running game. Tajh Boyd is fantastic, but a little over-hyped at this point. Tajh Boyd only averages 2.8 yards per carry and his longest run last year was for 27 yards. He loves to take the ball in himself, but that isn't much of a secret by now. The key to this game will be the matchup between senior Michael Bennet (WR2) and freshman Mackensie Alexander (CB). Alexander has been highly touted and was ranked #4 on ESPN's 300 high school recruits. Bennet is 6'3" 205 lbs, Alexander is 5'11" 175 lbs. Normally, this matchup would get worked around, but Clemson is extremely light on DBs this year. 5'10", 5'11", 6'0", 6'0", 5'10", 6'0", 6'1", 6'0", 5'10", 6'1", 6'0", 6'0" are all 12 DBs listed on Clemson's roster, with no one over 200 lbs (most aren't over 185 lbs), they have to cover 6'1", 6'3", 6'5", 6'3" averaging around 200 lbs. Georgia doesn't look great on defense, but doesn't have nearly the matchup problems here. Either way this is going to be a monster scoring game: Georgia 38 - Clemson 34. The play: Georgia -3 @ +100 for 2u
LSU @ TCU - LSU has lost a step. Jeremy Hill (RB) is being disciplined for an arrest over the summer and Les Miles is being purposefully vague on his punishment. IF he starts, that will change a few things in this analysis, but by all rights I'm assuming he will at least have to sit this game. Mettenberger is getting better and reports from summer practices are that he has much improved his arm strength and been working very hard. His favorite targets are returning, but I'm getting conflicting reports of who exactly is suiting up. The big story here is on defense, with only 4 returning starters and only 1 on the D-Line. The tigers return 2 stud safeties (side note: who the hell is coaching safeties at LSU, God himself??), but no starting CBs. On the other side of the ball, TCU is returning 9 on a very under-valued defense. Due to a triple overtime game and a double overtime, the defenses statistics against quality opponents has been skewed. Taking OT out of the equation, in 5 games against "Top 25" opponents last year, TCU averaged surrendering 24 points per game. There are undoubtedly some question marks around the offense, but with the return of Boykin and Catalon TCU should be steady scoring, but without much threat to go deep at any time. Boykin has proven himself a short, accurate passer and prefers picking up small chunks of yardage that should take the LSU safeties mostly out of the equation. For what its worth, TCU's backup QB, Pachall, enjoys airing it out much more and is likely to see the field in high-risk-high-reward situations. I'm guessing OT, but that isn't usually something to hang your over/under hat on: LSU 27 - 28 TCU 1OT. The play: TCU ML @ +175 for 1u
UTSA @ New Mexico - This one is short and sweet: New Mexico runs the ball, UTSA stops the run. New Mexico gained just over 81% of their yards last year on the ground, only completing 79 total passes last year. Last year UTSA led the nation in returning starters with 21, this year they lead the nation in returning starters with 19 having lost a D-lineman and RB. Last year UTSA was 30th in the nation in stopping the run, allowing 136.9 yards per game, and came in 25th in the nation in yards per rush attempt allowed at 3.7. UTSA is far from prolific on offense but has plenty of team cohesion at this point and the New Mexico defense is a mystery, only returning 4 starters from last year. Prediction: UTSA 24 - New Mexico 16. The play: UTSA ML @ +150 for 2u, UTSA + 3.5 @ -115 for 3u
In the interest of simplicity in grading later:
UK -4 @ -117 for 2u
Georgia -3 @ +100 for 2u
TCU ML @ +175 for 1u
UTSA ML @ +150 for 2u
UTSA + 3.5 @ -115 for 3u
Good luck wherever your bets may lie and enjoy the first week of the year!
Incoming Record
2011 NCAAF Write Ups 11-11 (+8.3u)
2012 NCAAF Write Ups 3-3 (+25.0u)
Overall 14-14 (+33.3u)
UK @ WKU - Last year's WKU win was fluky and couldn't happen without more bad luck to UK than I'll take the time to account. Talent-wise, WKU is stacked at OL, but anemic at most other positions. Andrews (RB) is going to have a big game (he has ever since he's begun playing), but with Jakes gone he leaves a hole at QB too big for any WKU player to fill. On the Kentucky side of things, there is a bevy of offensive weaponry. This game will be won by defensive play-calling and superior LB play by Kentucky. UK 30 - WKU 24. The play: UK -4 @ -117 for 2u
Georgia @ Clemson - I still have a hard time saying it, but Georgia is underrated at #5, they've returned a potent offensive corp with 10 starters (they lost an WR1 in Tavarres King, but Murray spread the ball well last year with 11 different players with TDs last season). Gurley is one of those freak running backs, that despite being only a sophomore at 6'1" and about 230 lbs, runs downhill from the point he touches the ball averaging 6.3 yards per carry with 17 TDs last year. When Gurley comes out, Marshall comes in and burns defenses. Clemson is offensively potent as well, but with the loss of Andre Ellington, they lose a lot of trickery in the running game. Tajh Boyd is fantastic, but a little over-hyped at this point. Tajh Boyd only averages 2.8 yards per carry and his longest run last year was for 27 yards. He loves to take the ball in himself, but that isn't much of a secret by now. The key to this game will be the matchup between senior Michael Bennet (WR2) and freshman Mackensie Alexander (CB). Alexander has been highly touted and was ranked #4 on ESPN's 300 high school recruits. Bennet is 6'3" 205 lbs, Alexander is 5'11" 175 lbs. Normally, this matchup would get worked around, but Clemson is extremely light on DBs this year. 5'10", 5'11", 6'0", 6'0", 5'10", 6'0", 6'1", 6'0", 5'10", 6'1", 6'0", 6'0" are all 12 DBs listed on Clemson's roster, with no one over 200 lbs (most aren't over 185 lbs), they have to cover 6'1", 6'3", 6'5", 6'3" averaging around 200 lbs. Georgia doesn't look great on defense, but doesn't have nearly the matchup problems here. Either way this is going to be a monster scoring game: Georgia 38 - Clemson 34. The play: Georgia -3 @ +100 for 2u
LSU @ TCU - LSU has lost a step. Jeremy Hill (RB) is being disciplined for an arrest over the summer and Les Miles is being purposefully vague on his punishment. IF he starts, that will change a few things in this analysis, but by all rights I'm assuming he will at least have to sit this game. Mettenberger is getting better and reports from summer practices are that he has much improved his arm strength and been working very hard. His favorite targets are returning, but I'm getting conflicting reports of who exactly is suiting up. The big story here is on defense, with only 4 returning starters and only 1 on the D-Line. The tigers return 2 stud safeties (side note: who the hell is coaching safeties at LSU, God himself??), but no starting CBs. On the other side of the ball, TCU is returning 9 on a very under-valued defense. Due to a triple overtime game and a double overtime, the defenses statistics against quality opponents has been skewed. Taking OT out of the equation, in 5 games against "Top 25" opponents last year, TCU averaged surrendering 24 points per game. There are undoubtedly some question marks around the offense, but with the return of Boykin and Catalon TCU should be steady scoring, but without much threat to go deep at any time. Boykin has proven himself a short, accurate passer and prefers picking up small chunks of yardage that should take the LSU safeties mostly out of the equation. For what its worth, TCU's backup QB, Pachall, enjoys airing it out much more and is likely to see the field in high-risk-high-reward situations. I'm guessing OT, but that isn't usually something to hang your over/under hat on: LSU 27 - 28 TCU 1OT. The play: TCU ML @ +175 for 1u
UTSA @ New Mexico - This one is short and sweet: New Mexico runs the ball, UTSA stops the run. New Mexico gained just over 81% of their yards last year on the ground, only completing 79 total passes last year. Last year UTSA led the nation in returning starters with 21, this year they lead the nation in returning starters with 19 having lost a D-lineman and RB. Last year UTSA was 30th in the nation in stopping the run, allowing 136.9 yards per game, and came in 25th in the nation in yards per rush attempt allowed at 3.7. UTSA is far from prolific on offense but has plenty of team cohesion at this point and the New Mexico defense is a mystery, only returning 4 starters from last year. Prediction: UTSA 24 - New Mexico 16. The play: UTSA ML @ +150 for 2u, UTSA + 3.5 @ -115 for 3u
In the interest of simplicity in grading later:
UK -4 @ -117 for 2u
Georgia -3 @ +100 for 2u
TCU ML @ +175 for 1u
UTSA ML @ +150 for 2u
UTSA + 3.5 @ -115 for 3u
Good luck wherever your bets may lie and enjoy the first week of the year!
