2013 Mac's Early Leans

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  • Night-Tripper
    SBR MVP
    • 12-14-09
    • 3205

    #631
    Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
    I like Colorado State as well but the way they played last week have me gun shy. That's another game that the line looks inflated but their QB is trash which makes it tough to cap.
    I'll take damn near any QB over Cody Green every single day of the week.
    Comment
    • 2daBank
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-26-09
      • 88966

      #632
      Originally posted by jrbacon
      Anyone like the U41 or 42 in Cards/Rams?
      while i understand liking that total cause clearly the defenses are both better than the offenses in this one i think you gotta take into consideration that both teams have world class punt and kick return teams that will either score or set up a few scores in this gm. zona has some serious ball hawking dbs that will prob get a few picks off bradford that either get taken back to the house or set up short fields, cards oline is a mess and rams front will be all over palmer either getting a few sack/fumbles or forcing him into some bad throws into another really good secondary.. so yea while i dont think these offenses can put together a lot of long scoring drives i do think defense and special teams will set up scores, throw in both teams have guys capable of making a big play on offense and think you have you r reason for why this line been ticking up..
      Comment
      • Mac4Lyfe
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-04-09
        • 48445

        #633
        NFL games added... 3 first half lines, 5 bolded plays.

        ---------------------------------------------------
        Browns ML -115 first half vs Miami
        Tampa Bay -1.5 first half vs NYJ
        New Orleans Saints -2.5 first half vs Atlanta
        --------------------------------------------
        Cowboys -3 -130 vs Giants
        Tampa Bay -3 -130 vs NYJ
        Cincinnati +3 vs Chicago
        San Fran 49ers -4 -118 vs GB
        New Orleans Saints -3 vs AtlantaColts -10 vs Oakland
        --------------------------------------------------

        I really love Tampa Bay on Sunday. The Jets are a hot mess. I can see Geno Smith imploding very quickly in this one. The only reason I'm not hammering this is first game of the season and the line should be higher.

        I also like the Cowboys and Saints both being at home. Those venues are going to be rocking.
        Comment
        • atltsx
          SBR Hustler
          • 06-23-13
          • 82

          #634
          Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
          I also like the Cowboys and Saints both being at home. Those venues are going to be rocking.
          Both of those games are a toss up. Hard to go against the Giants. Cowboys have the team to win the game but Romo will need to show me something before I back them. As for the saints game, i'll wait until they play again 11.21 to bet that game. Falcons didn't show me much in preseason but then again it's preseason.

          I with you 100% on the Tampa game though.

          GL this weekend
          Comment
          • 9ersPride
            SBR High Roller
            • 08-21-13
            • 186

            #635
            Mac..heres my 5 teams FL ,ORG, S MISS, K STATE and WASH..any opinions?
            Comment
            • Mac4Lyfe
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-04-09
              • 48445

              #636
              I love UF, Oregon, and like SMiss. I do not like KState at all.
              Slight lean on Wash state.
              Originally posted by 9ersPride
              Mac..heres my 5 teams FL ,ORG, S MISS, K STATE and WASH..any opinions?
              Comment
              • Mac4Lyfe
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 01-04-09
                • 48445

                #637
                Giants are a mess to me right now. I dont like what ive been seeing. If it wasnt the first game id have more confidence in them. I really like home teams this week too which is why I'm high on Saints.

                Originally posted by atltsx
                Both of those games are a toss up. Hard to go against the Giants. Cowboys have the team to win the game but Romo will need to show me something before I back them. As for the saints game, i'll wait until they play again 11.21 to bet that game. Falcons didn't show me much in preseason but then again it's preseason.

                I with you 100% on the Tampa game though.

                GL this weekend
                Comment
                • 9ersPride
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 08-21-13
                  • 186

                  #638
                  Thanks for ue input..good luck
                  Comment
                  • brandcorytoby
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 11-29-10
                    • 172

                    #639
                    Have been following your College plays.

                    How have you done in the past on your NFL plays?
                    Comment
                    • wassup
                      SBR Hustler
                      • 05-08-13
                      • 65

                      #640
                      Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
                      ---------------------------------------------------
                      Browns ML -115 first half vs Miami
                      Tampa Bay -1.5 first half vs NYJ
                      New Orleans Saints -2.5 first half vs Atlanta
                      --------------------------------------------
                      Cowboys -3 -130 vs Giants
                      Tampa Bay -3 -130 vs NYJ
                      Cincinnati +3 vs Chicago
                      San Fran 49ers -4 -118 vs GB
                      New Orleans Saints -3 vs AtlantaColts -10 vs Oakland
                      --------------------------------------------------
                      I guess all odds you didn't put are -110, and that last line you are playing saints -3 and colts -10 separately right?
                      Comment
                      • gojetsgomoxies
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-04-12
                        • 4222

                        #641
                        Mac, i tallied it up and it looks like you were 10-3 ATS on your early leans last week (and that includes an ATS loss - UNLV - where the yardage and score differentials were completely distorted).....

                        thank you very much again!!! i think i blindly tailed one of your games and you gave me confidence on my own picks on a bunch of others.
                        Comment
                        • Mac4Lyfe
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-04-09
                          • 48445

                          #642
                          Historically I've done much better on college..last week was a train wreck though. I know a lot of kids and coaches coming up through HS' pipelines in Texas, Florida, Georgia, SC, Ohio, and California. I follow a lot of those area colleges as a result. I've hoestly not lost money in the last 8 years (now I've jinxed myself to all hell). The books are catching up in CFB though. Its becoming a lot harder to find softlines. Especially early Iin the season.

                          I use to be real good at NFL but the lines are so tight now and info so hard to get that its pretty much a coin flip. I did well last year but the previous 2 years I lost money. Its like me in the casino. I usually win on Blackjack but give it back on craps :-(


                          Originally posted by brandcorytoby
                          Have been following your College plays.

                          How have you done in the past on your NFL plays?
                          Comment
                          • Kklee11
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 09-01-13
                            • 32

                            #643
                            Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
                            NFL games added... 3 first half lines, 5 bolded plays.

                            ---------------------------------------------------
                            Browns ML -115 first half vs Miami
                            Tampa Bay -1.5 first half vs NYJ
                            New Orleans Saints -2.5 first half vs Atlanta
                            --------------------------------------------
                            Cowboys -3 -130 vs Giants
                            Tampa Bay -3 -130 vs NYJ
                            Cincinnati +3 vs Chicago
                            San Fran 49ers -4 -118 vs GB
                            New Orleans Saints -3 vs AtlantaColts -10 vs Oakland
                            --------------------------------------------------

                            I really love Tampa Bay on Sunday. The Jets are a hot mess. I can see Geno Smith imploding very quickly in this one. The only reason I'm not hammering this is first game of the season and the line should be higher.

                            I also like the Cowboys and Saints both being at home. Those venues are going to be rocking.
                            Ur bolds 2u?
                            Comment
                            • Mac4Lyfe
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-04-09
                              • 48445

                              #644
                              Yeah, I'm at Heritage now nad there lines are all over the place. Usually if I don't list it its -108.

                              Yes, Saints and Colts are separate.

                              Originally posted by wassup
                              I guess all odds you didn't put are -110, and that last line you are playing saints -3 and colts -10 separately right?
                              Comment
                              • Mac4Lyfe
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 01-04-09
                                • 48445

                                #645
                                Originally posted by Kklee11
                                Ur bolds 2u?
                                More like 2.5 to 3x.

                                But games I love are a lot higher. 5x to 20x. I stopped posting units because I dont want to highly influence a pick when money management is always paramount. Plus I rather spend time on the games versus keeping up with data. If I like a high ML dog, I'll play it and count it a loss if it doesnt hit. Same way I'll by the hook and count it as a win. I'm not trying to manipulate numbers. I just don't want to spend the time focusing on things that don't make me money.
                                Comment
                                • Mac4Lyfe
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-04-09
                                  • 48445

                                  #646
                                  Yeah, it was shaping up to be an epic day until I backed lousy Kentucky. I know better to not be in deep on shit teams and I kept telling myself to have self control but the numbers on paper looked too good to pass up.

                                  I always look for your insight. I see your killing it.

                                  Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies
                                  Mac, i tallied it up and it looks like you were 10-3 ATS on your early leans last week (and that includes an ATS loss - UNLV - where the yardage and score differentials were completely distorted).....

                                  thank you very much again!!! i think i blindly tailed one of your games and you gave me confidence on my own picks on a bunch of others.
                                  Comment
                                  • 9ersPride
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 08-21-13
                                    • 186

                                    #647
                                    Tonite liking BOS college -2.5 and UNDER 48.5
                                    Comment
                                    • ghetto1
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 10-13-09
                                      • 174

                                      #648
                                      Is that mean u picking michigan -3? I'm new to this and I'm use my bro acct.
                                      Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
                                      ^I should also say that you should sprinkle a little on Sam Houston St for shits and giggles. TAM has had a media circus surround them and they have a lot of freshman out there playing football. That can always spell disaster if they start feeling pressure that can burst pipes.

                                      Another bolded play...

                                      -----------------------------------------------
                                      Michigan -3 -118 vs Notre Dame
                                      -----------------------------------------------

                                      I had a long write up but my computer crashed. Dammit. I don't trust Notre Dame's offense. I don't see them putting enough points on the board in this one. Michigan threw 5 interceptions last year plus lost a fumble and still was within 7 points last year. I can't stress how much of an upgrade getting rid of Denard is. I don't think this game will be close. I'm liking UM by about 15 points. I think the Under is a good play as well.


                                      This is a big booty play...

                                      Comment
                                      • Mac4Lyfe
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 01-04-09
                                        • 48445

                                        #649
                                        Boston College looks to be the right play. I'm still not sure if I'm going to play it simply because it's on fukking Friday. Friday is for HS football. There's some awesome teams playing tonight here in Houston. Last night was Katy. Tonight, Kingwood, Memorial, Lamar and North Shore are all playing. Lot's of D1 kids in action. I'm going to one of those games which will be more interesting than this one.

                                        Originally posted by 9ersPride
                                        Tonite liking BOS college -2.5 and UNDER 48.5


                                        Yep, first team listed is who I favor...
                                        Originally posted by ghetto1
                                        Is that mean u picking michigan -3? I'm new to this and I'm use my bro acct.
                                        Comment
                                        • ghetto1
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 10-13-09
                                          • 174

                                          #650
                                          Ty Mac
                                          Comment
                                          • Mac4Lyfe
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 01-04-09
                                            • 48445

                                            #651
                                            Adding 1 NFL and 1 College game

                                            -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            NFL Football
                                            Selection : New England Patriots 9/8/2013 10:00AM - (PST) Spread -13 +130 for Game
                                            -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            College Football
                                            Selection : Washington State 9/7/2013 7:30PM - (PST) Spread +16 for Game
                                            --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Patriots bolded play...

                                            Comment
                                            • Night-Tripper
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-14-09
                                              • 3205

                                              #652
                                              Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
                                              Boston College looks to be the right play. I'm still not sure if I'm going to play it simply because it's on fukking Friday. Friday is for HS football. There's some awesome teams playing tonight here in Houston. Last night was Katy. Tonight, Kingwood, Memorial, Lamar and North Shore are all playing. Lot's of D1 kids in action. I'm going to one of those games which will be more interesting than this one.





                                              Yep, first team listed is who I favor...
                                              I used to catch as many GHA games as I could on a weekend... especially come playoff time. (I miss the megathons they had at the Astrodome.) However, a few years ago (once ESPN started having games on weeknights), I decided pursuit of cash was more important than catching a high school game. I approach sports betting differently than most... I view it the same as day trading, which is why I live/die via Live Betting.
                                              Comment
                                              • Mac4Lyfe
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-04-09
                                                • 48445

                                                #653
                                                Yeah, but I hate college treading on HS and I hate HS treading on college. A lot of HS games are now on Thursday and WTF Saturdays. That's bullshit. I refuse to go to a HS game on a Saturday, like I would never go to a college game on a Friday. Screw that.

                                                Good thing I have a slingbox and a Monsoon Vulkano. They both allow you to stream your home tvs to anywhere with an internet connection. I'm usually at the games with my phone and ipad watching games live. Plus, I'll post to several forums. Talk about multitasking.



                                                Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                                                I used to catch as many GHA games as I could on a weekend... especially come playoff time. (I miss the megathons they had at the Astrodome.) However, a few years ago (once ESPN started having games on weeknights), I decided pursuit of cash was more important than catching a high school game. I approach sports betting differently than most... I view it the same as day trading, which is why I live/die via Live Betting.
                                                Comment
                                                • dolla-dolla
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 02-07-13
                                                  • 121

                                                  #654
                                                  Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe
                                                  Adding 1 NFL and 1 College game

                                                  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  NFL Football
                                                  Selection : New England Patriots 9/8/2013 10:00AM - (PST) Spread -13 +130 for Game
                                                  -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  College Football
                                                  Selection : Washington State 9/7/2013 7:30PM - (PST) Spread +16 for Game
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Patriots bolded play...

                                                  on Pats too. got em at -11. brady vs a crappy walk on or injured manuel. no brainer.

                                                  like wash state to cover as well.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • thunderous
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 06-05-12
                                                    • 1870

                                                    #655
                                                    Why is it so quiet in here boys?? Mac....wake up!! Games about to start we need ya buddy
                                                    Comment
                                                    • wacked
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 01-13-09
                                                      • 719

                                                      #656
                                                      Go Gators! =)

                                                      Comment
                                                      • ghetto1
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 10-13-09
                                                        • 174

                                                        #657
                                                        Following Mac on gators pick...go gators! Mac wake up..we need more picks
                                                        Comment
                                                        • wacked
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 01-13-09
                                                          • 719

                                                          #658
                                                          Here's basically everything Mac4Lyfe said in the previous posts for this week.
                                                          (4) for sure NCAAF picks, and the other is just info.

                                                          Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

                                                          Some Early Leans...

                                                          Oklahoma -20 -116 versus WVU
                                                          Cincinnati - 7 -124 versus Illinois
                                                          South Carolina +3.5 versus UGA
                                                          SDSU +28 versus Ohio State
                                                          Oregon -21 -125 versus Virginia
                                                          So Miss +28.5 versus Nebraska
                                                          Eastern Mich +23 versus Penn State
                                                          Michigan -3 -128 versus ND
                                                          Wash St +15 versus USC
                                                          Toledo +17.5 versus Mizzou

                                                          I've already booked Florida -3 which I absolutely love. Only play so far.

                                                          I love UF, Oregon, and like SMiss. I do not like KState at all.
                                                          Slight lean on Wash state.

                                                          Sam Houston State +38 -118 versus Texas A&M
                                                          Michigan -3 -118 vs Notre Dame
                                                          Florida -3 vs Miami
                                                          Selection : Washington State 9/7/2013 7:30PM - (PST) Spread +16 for Game
                                                          I like Arky State +12.5 vs Auburn
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Urbanwildlife
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 09-06-11
                                                            • 5958

                                                            #659
                                                            @Mac4Lyfe, See you at the pay window! Back at my home in Colombia this week my friend.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Mac4Lyfe
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 01-04-09
                                                              • 48445

                                                              #660
                                                              Added plays for the morning games... 2 Bolded

                                                              ------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Football - 395 Eastern Kentucky/Louisville over 55 -110 for Game
                                                              Football - 315 Houston U -3 -103 for Game

                                                              Football - 389 Missouri State +27 -122 buying 1 for Game
                                                              Football - 314 Tex San Antonio team total under 17 -130 for Game
                                                              Football - 309 South Florida +24 -124 buying 1 for Game
                                                              -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Mac4Lyfe
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 01-04-09
                                                                • 48445

                                                                #661
                                                                Sorry for the late adds. Long, long night. I'll have the rest of the day posted in a but.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Mac4Lyfe
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 01-04-09
                                                                  • 48445

                                                                  #662
                                                                  2 more added....

                                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                  Selection : Utah 9/7/2013 11:00AM - (PST) Spread -27½ -110 for Game

                                                                  Selection : Boise State 9/7/2013 12:00PM - (PST) Spread -34 -110 for Game
                                                                  -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Kap Kapperson
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 06-22-13
                                                                    • 31

                                                                    #663
                                                                    Done for the day or got some more coming, Mac?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Mac4Lyfe
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 01-04-09
                                                                      • 48445

                                                                      #664
                                                                      Another bolded play...

                                                                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                      Football - 424 Texas State -31 -115 buying ½ for Game vs Prairie View A&M
                                                                      ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Mac4Lyfe
                                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                                        • 01-04-09
                                                                        • 48445

                                                                        #665
                                                                        I knew when the line didn't move on the UF/Miami game I was fukked.

                                                                        Gators had 3 times the yards, 3 times time of possession. 6 trips in the red zone and 6 points. 5 turnovers and still was in the game. You can't cap red zone blunders.

                                                                        and in the same type of game. Houston was dominating Temple all over the field. Had first and goal at the 1 yard line 3 times and came up with just 3 points. How does that shit happen? It took everything and a lot of luck for UH to cover in the last minute in what should have been an easy cover.

                                                                        You have to have a strong heart playing this shit.
                                                                        Comment
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