Sammy D's 2013 College Football Thread

[SamDiamond]

I have 2 rules for my thread.

1. Post anything you wish. If I go 1-6 on a weekend, I deserve to be E-bitched. I can take it.

2. There are no rules. All my selections are open for debate, mockery, worship.

I make 7 selections a week. 1--3 Unit Selection, and 6--1 Unit Selections.

I start on Sunday Nights---- find 15 possible games, and then I break my list down to 7 games. Then I line shop.

I don't play games. The lines I post in my thread at the lines I got when I made my bet, and you will be able to verify the line using sbrodds History.

My picks will also be on my SBR spreadsheet. No edits.

So, good luck guys.

Win Big.

Stop by once/while.

[Killer_Demo]

GL Sam

[SamDiamond]

I am not going to bore everyone to death with long write-ups, but I am going to give my reasons for my selections.

#1. Northwestern (-5) v. Cal.

I love the Wildcats here. They have 2 quality QBs, and for some reason such a platoon/system works for them. Northwestern has 15 returning starters----including nearly 100% of their entire offensive production.

I don't worry about this being a road game because Northwestern played pretty well on the road last year, beating Michigan State, and losing 2 tight games to Michigan and Penn State. Fitzgerald has developed into a solid coach, and I think Cal is going to be overwhelmed in this spot. Cal isn't deep, they have a true freshman QB, and their fan base is fickle enough that they are not going to have any type of significant home field advantage.

I will write up picks 2-7 later on tonight....

[Don Giovanni]

Sam - I like Fitzgerald and the enthusiasm he brings. He seems like he recruits blue-collar type players (much like he was). Good luck this season! -DG

[BigdaddyQH]

Not the worst play I have seen, but two things bother me. First, against non-con opposition away, Northwestern is 6/3 S/U, but only 3/6 ATS since Fitzgerald took over. Next, Cal is a Pac 10 team coming off a horrible year and sporting a new HC and a rebuilt stadium. They are also 5-1-1 ATS against the Big 10 in their last 7 games. There are a lot of things to like about Cal. I think there are a lot safer plays on the board. GL in this one.

[Louisvillekid1]

Sam how can you auto select the amount of plays and also make one and only one play 3 units each week...

good luck and look forward to the thread...

[SamDiamond]

Sam how can you auto select the amount of plays and also make one and only one play 3 units each week...

good luck and look forward to the thread...

I find that recipe works for me. It keeps me focused. I use power numbers, so I literally select the game that I feel as I have the largest edge with the books with.

I use a lot of different variables---- schedule (is it a trap spot?), consecutive road games?, my power numbers, momentum?

After all of that, one game usually stands above the rest for me, with 4-6 really good plays after that.

[Louisvillekid1]

I hear ya, I just couldn't tell you how many exact plays I'll have before the week...

Good Luck, whatever is Black

[SamDiamond]

Pick#2-Ohio +20.5 v. Louisville. 20.5 with this Ohio team? I'll take it! Ohio QB Tyler Tettleton can play if you haven't seen him yet. He's going to give Louisville fits. Ask Penn State. Ohio was playing the best football of any MAC team last year until the injury bug started to bite and crushed them. Tettleton was dinged, so was the OL. Ohio also has a pretty solid coaching staff to match Charlie Strong's group. Louisville isn't Alabama. They're a decentish team with a good QB, that's it. Ohio won't win, but they'll cover the number.

Risking 110/100 on this one.

Pick #3-Ole Miss -3 v. Vanderbilt. Hugh Freeze has Ole Miss trending up---recruiting with the big boys-- landing an insanely talented freshmen class. They also have Bo Wallace back this year, a decent runner in Jeff Scott, and a pretty good set of linebackers. I am not sold on James Franklin at Vandy. I think he got rich feeding on some bottom feeders, Vandy loses its QB, and 1000 yard rusher--Zac Stacy----Ole Miss has program momentum, more experience at key positions and are better coached.

Risking 110/100.

Pick #4-Northern Illinois ML +135 v. Iowa. Love, love, love NIU in this spot. NIU coming off a BCS bowl game-- where they were beaten down by FSU, but they played hard and competed. At the end of last year, NIU's QB Jordan Lynch was virtually unstoppable, he accounted for almost 5,000 of offense last year---(3100 passing, 1800 rushing)--That was the first time that was done in Division 1 history----Bottom line NIU is loaded, with one of the most dynamic QBs in college football. Iowa on the other hand is a hot mess. They have a first time QB, they are entering the 2013 on a 6-game losing streak, they don't have much speed on the outside, and they are not as good up front defensively as they have been past year. NIU wins this.

Risking 100/135

Pick #5-UNLV +14 v. Minnesota. I know, I know. UNLV. I just threw up in my mouth a little. Bobby Houck is 6-32 at UNLV. I know, I know, more vomit in the back of my throat. But this number is just too high. UNLV almost won straight up last year against Minnesota. UNLV has had young rosters the past 2 years, now Hauck has some experience. They have some talented WRs who could allow them to score some points and keep games close. That is why I love the points here. Minnesota's Jerry Kill is a very good college football coach but his team is not that much better than UNLV's roster. They lack elite talent, and I don't see any way possible they cover this number, even with their coaching advantage.

Risking 110/100.

Pick 6-Louisanna Tech (+13.5) v NC State. 13.5? I'm a little nervous with the move to Skip Holtz. But to Holtz' credit, he is keeping the offense exactly as it was, and he should! This is a team that put up 57 against Texas AM last year. The Bulldogs return Kenneth Dixon-- who ran for 1200 yards as a frosh last year. They are replacing their QB, but they had some talent on the roster. Holtz is focusing his attention on the defensive side of the ball----hopefully they can slow some teams down this year. NC State fired Tom O'Brien and upgraded by hiring NIU's Dave Doeren. Doeren does not have the talent to run his system this year, so if teams want to beat the Wolfpack, this is the year to do it. That is why I love La. Tech in this spot----its asking way too much for Doeren's staff to come in and be running at top speed in this game. Take the points here.

Risking 110/100.

Pick #7. Georgia -2 v. Clemson. This is my 3 unit HR. Georgia is loaded. They have Aaron Murray back, they have ridiculous talent at RB in Gurley and Marshall, and Malcolm Mitchell at WR. Mark Richt should send OC Mike Bobo packing if he can't score points with this talent. Here's my hangup with Clemson. Obviously they have Boyd and Sammy Watkins-- but you know what else they have? Dabo. Dabo Dabo Doo. Every year, Dabo manages to punch himself in the face. Clemson has the talent to play with anyone, but I think this is the spot where Georgia just overwhlems them, much like South Carolina does to Clemson. Georgia big.

Risking 330/300.

[tmgissy]

loving pick#7 Cash them in bud!


Look forward to your thread.

[Killer_Demo]

SD, I see u picking NIU week 1, I almost played that one myself...GL

[ElCapitan]

I like the under in the NIU/Iowa game as well as your NIU pick.

[Night-Tripper]

It's not gonna bring you any luck, but I like all of them (even though I've currently) only played UNLV, Ole Miss and Ohio. I will probably play Northwestern should the line drop, as well as Georgia, if the line doesn't go any higher. I don't have a good feel on your other two games, so I'm leaving them alone.

Good luck to ya...

[SamDiamond]

It's not gonna bring you any luck, but I like all of them (even though I've currently) only played UNLV, Ole Miss and Ohio. I will probably play Northwestern should the line drop, as well as Georgia, if the line doesn't go any higher. I don't have a good feel on your other two games, so I'm leaving them alone.

Good luck to ya...

Thanks Trip.

GL!

[SamDiamond]

SD, I see u picking NIU week 1, I almost played that one myself...GL

loving pick#7 Cash them in bud!


Look forward to your thread.

I like the under in the NIU/Iowa game as well as your NIU pick.

Thanks guys!

Good luck to ya

[gojetsgomoxies]

nice picks, thank you!!!

LT makes me a bit nervous.... lots of major changes... i don't know much about NCState this year

Northwestern is a good fundamental picks... a few technicals going against it (cal has been excellent Home ATS i think) but i think it's the right pick.

georgia/clemson i know little about but i might play UNDER if the total is high enough.

Ohio, NIllinois and UNLV are top picks for me too... have to hold my nose on the UNLV road ATS, but no reason that should continue anywhere near as bad as it's been.

[Louisvillekid1]

Pick#2-Ohio +20.5 v. Louisville. 20.5 with this Ohio team? I'll take it! Ohio QB Tyler Tettleton can play if you haven't seen him yet. He's going to give Louisville fits. Ask Penn State. Ohio was playing the best football of any MAC team last year until the injury bug started to bite and crushed them. Tettleton was dinged, so was the OL. Ohio also has a pretty solid coaching staff to match Charlie Strong's group.

[SamDiamond]

Kid-- don't play homer games.

Solich can coach. Strong is overrated. That's a fact. What exactly has he done? He won the Big East? Randy Edsall did that.

Strong is 25-14 in a weak conference, and he is 2-2 in Bowl games.

What makes him so special?

The most mind numbing stat about Charlie Strong---- he has coached 40 games at Louisville----and faced 3 Top 25 teams. That's it. 3.

[RSnakeBR]

GL Sam!!! I'll be following this thread during the season.

Let's make money!!!

[ThickStick]

I appreciate the write ups an analysis on your picks. I will be following you on a couple of these. Good luck.

[Bbfromgpt]

Regardless what happens in the UL game I actually would take Solich over Strong as a big game coach any day. I think UL will have an amazing year, partially bc of their weak schedule. If OHIO protects the ball they'll be within the number. Solid play on an inflated line.

[SamDiamond]

Regardless what happens in the UL game I actually would take Solich over Strong as a big game coach any day. I think UL will have an amazing year, partially bc of their weak schedule. If OHIO protects the ball they'll be within the number. Solid play on an inflated line.

That's my point. Strong has faced 3 Top 25 teams in his 40 games as head coach. That is the fewest for any coach with 40 games under his belt, in any BCS conference (I am including the old Big East as a BCS Conference).

[Bbfromgpt]

Yup, very logical and legit point. GL

[Louisvillekid1]

Kid-- don't play homer games.

Solich can coach. Strong is overrated. That's a fact. What exactly has he done? He won the Big East? Randy Edsall did that.

Strong is 25-14 in a weak conference, and he is 2-2 in Bowl games.

What makes him so special?

The most mind numbing stat about Charlie Strong---- he has coached 40 games at Louisville----and faced 3 Top 25 teams. That's it. 3.

Lol look at where he's been for that last 20 years before coming to the Ville...

[SamDiamond]

Lol look at where he's been for that last 20 years before coming to the Ville...

Just because he coached for Urban Meyer, doesn't make him Urban Meyer, you realize this, right?

Strong coached on some BAD Notre Dame teams with Bob Davie, and he was a "co" coordinator at Florida.

Ya know, Lane Kiffin was on some good coaching staff, how's that working out?

Not sure if you realize this, but Solich has more National Championship Rings (as an assistant coach) than Strong has.

[chunk]

I like the Mississippi play. They have some solid talent on this team. All of their losses last year came against teams where they were DD dogs except....Vandy. I think that they get a little payback here.

[cant call it]

do you keep a spreadsheet or have a w/l record from last year?

[SamDiamond]

do you keep a spreadsheet or have a w/l record from last year?

All my picks are also on my SBR spreadsheet.

And-- I hate doing this-- feel free to tell me to go fuk myself--but I had a decent run last year. I was booted off another forum because I won a heads/up contest with a moderator-- and I acted, ummm, "less than professional".

I try to minimize my risk. I don't bet more than 6% of my bankroll on a single game--(330 on 110 lines). And I never. NEVER Chase.

If I go 1-6 and there is a late Saturday game. I turn my f'in tv off, and read a book. I'm done for the day.

[thunderous]

Good Luck Sam!

[SamDiamond]

Okay, I ended night 1:

1-1 -.10 units

I can't bitch about UNLV and Hauck shitting the bid AGAIN. This is the perfect example of when you have to look "beyond" your power numbers and add the variable of "Bobby Hauck is going to crush your soul". On paper (or computer screen), Minny and UNLV were pretty even, then Minny returned a blocked FG for a touchdown, then when UNLV was in the red zone with a potential score to cut the lead to 7-- an INT returned for an 80+ yard score. Fuk us, we UNLV backers.

I got filthy lucky to get the Ole Miss cover, but the gambling gods owed me that after having to deal with Bobby Hauck.

On to tomorrow.

I have nada for this evening, GL to those of you who have action on it.

[SamDiamond]

Seeing a lot of you guys taking North Dakota State and the 14.

That's looking like a good bet.

Keeping my eye on this one. I missed this one completely.

[SamDiamond]

Shitty first week.

2013 Record-to-date: 3-4-0
2013 Net Units-to-date: -3.25 units

Week 2.

No time to post writeups.

So, stream of consciousness.

Duke has the better coaching staff, and a decent QB-rolled Memphis last year-Memphis still not get good offensively. Clowney is a talent, but he's out of shape-- and didn't make much of a difference last week. Georgia gets revenge here. Bobby Petrino can coach football. Period. I'll take Petrino, his motorcyle, the volleyball player and the 14. Army is horrific. Ball State will roll them. Cincinnati is a pretty good football team, and will continue to beat up on the bottom of the Big 10. By the way, the Big 10 blows donkey. Temple has some athleticism now at QB, Houston still is learning that you need to tackle to play defense in 1-A football. Stanford does what Stanford does-- win close football games. I'll take SJSU and the nearly 4 TDs.

Good luck this week.


Pick #8. Duke (-5.5) over Memphis Risking 110 to win 100

Pick #9. Georgia (-3 ) over South Carolina Risking 110 to win 100

Pick #10. Western Kentucky (+14) over Tennessee Risking 110 to win 100

Pick #11. Ball State (-7.5) over Army Risking 330 to win 300

Pick #12. Cincinnati (-7.5) over Illinois Risking 110 to win 100

Pick #13. Temple (+3) over Houston Risking 110 to win 100

Pick #14. San Jose State (+26.5) over Stanford Risking 110 to win 100

[wildcorndog]

If you follow my diamonds you would save your self from being humiliated.

[SamDiamond]

If you follow my diamonds you would save your self from being humiliated.

You're a mess.

Keep posting that chalk hillbilly.

[SamDiamond]

Okay, back on track.

Week 2 ATS: 4-3-0
Week 2 Units: +2.70