Tips on betting on the Election

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  • Coach Jake
    SBR Sharp
    • 09-24-11
    • 457

    #1
    Tips on betting on the Election
    I doubt many of you in the cfb forum are betting on this, but I've seen some crazy odds on BetOnline, wondering if any of yall are betting.

    I'm betting, but I'm also using Intrade, which is a much larger, more liquid market. There are some good odds on betonline, just you need to double check what the intrade odds are before you put anything in. Also, these numbers push around way more than lines for football games, so if you don't like one then wait for a little bit and itll change.

    As far as the election goes I think it all comes down to Ohio, but I think betting on individual states is the safest way to go, especially because we can look at all the most current polling data right now.

    Here's some lines that were similar to intrade odds

    1. Republicans for florida -215 - Odds are better than on intrade, polling showing a 1.8 advantage
    2. Republicans for NC -400 - Polls only showing +3, but NC historically is a pretty heavy republican state, with Obama barely winning in 2008
    3. Democrats for Colorado - today this went from -140 to -105 to -160 right now. I think -120 or lower is a good price for this, otherwise lookout, polls only show a .6 advantage
    4. Democrats for Ohio -300 - Election comes down to this State, but polling is showing a +2.9 Democrat win

    -Democrats Wisconsin -500 is too much, intrade is at -400, polls showing +4.6 favorite
    -Virginia is -125 for Democrats, but I think it'll be a very close race
    -Obama to win is -325, but that's a little high at 77.5%, where it's at 67% on intrade.

    Also, here's my polling website:


    Figured if betting can make MAC games exciting, then why not an election, lol
  • Pivotpoint
    SBR MVP
    • 08-02-06
    • 1762

    #2
    I like the odds on Romney, thinking this is a toss up

    I bet Romney +335. Noticed it just ticked up to +350

    Obama -465 seems crazy? Dudes are hitting that ?
    Comment
    • bane
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 09-14-12
      • 630

      #3
      Unfortunately, my book doesn't offer state level. I'd have some fun with parlays...
      Comment
      • hougigo
        SBR MVP
        • 06-01-12
        • 3665

        #4
        Redskins rule says Romney wins.... to everyone who always bet heavily on trends.....
        Comment
        • Coach Jake
          SBR Sharp
          • 09-24-11
          • 457

          #5
          I can't parlay!!!!!!!!!! ugh....ya, yesterday obama got up to that -470 area, definately not worth the odds. I firmly believe that with Ohio goes this election.
          Comment
          • J_smiff
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 09-06-12
            • 643

            #6
            Parlayed Romney winning Florida -240 with some OKC juice down to -3 at home against Toronto lol like -135 odds pretty awesome.
            Comment
            • possum11
              SBR High Roller
              • 10-20-11
              • 172

              #7
              colorado +140 for Romney is a good bet. registered Republicans were up 2% there after early voting. not polls, actual votes.
              Comment
              • Betman
                SBR Sharp
                • 10-20-05
                • 300

                #8
                Originally posted by hougigo
                Redskins rule says Romney wins.... to everyone who always bet heavily on trends.....

                The Redskins rule makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. There is no logic here.

                How can the result of a football game affect a presidential election is beyond me. It is just a statistical abberation which will not work at the end of the day.

                The smart money is on Obama.
                Comment
                • Coach Jake
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 09-24-11
                  • 457

                  #9
                  I think the smart money is on states. If you look at the race it all comes down to Ohio, so I only think the vote on obama is as good as Ohio. and idk about Colorado, polling close, but would be suprised if it went republican. I live there, and most people are leaning obama. I think Virginia might go republican, though
                  Comment
                  • Betman
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 10-20-05
                    • 300

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Coach Jake
                    I think the smart money is on states. If you look at the race it all comes down to Ohio, so I only think the vote on obama is as good as Ohio. and idk about Colorado, polling close, but would be suprised if it went republican. I live there, and most people are leaning obama. I think Virginia might go republican, though


                    Not so sure about Virginia going republican.

                    Predictwise.com, the best predicition website on this side of the galaxy has a 61.9% probability Virginia will go democrat.

                    If that happens with Ohio and Wisconsin, Romney might as well get ready to clean his ass with his victory speech
                    Comment
                    • Ms. Degen
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 10-11-12
                      • 599

                      #11
                      Originally posted by J_smiff
                      Parlayed Romney winning Florida -240 with some OKC juice down to -3 at home against Toronto lol like -135 odds pretty awesome.
                      florida is a tossup state...
                      Comment
                      • Betman
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 10-20-05
                        • 300

                        #12
                        If Romney loses in Florida, this election is over
                        Comment
                        • khaden
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-19-09
                          • 1864

                          #13
                          All over Mitt to win I think and hope he wins big. WE are all ****** if fucktard Barry Hussain gets another 4 years to screw the country forever.

                          11/6/12 4:51pm $250.00 $737.50 Pending 11/6/12 10:00am Politics Other Sports 1002 Mitt Romney wins 2012 election +295* vs Barack Obama wins 2012 election
                          11/5/12 4:12pm $370.00 $1,036.00 Pending 11/6/12 6:00am Politics Other Sports 1002 Mitt Romney wins 2012 election +280* vs Barack Obama wins 2012 election
                          Comment
                          • BeantownBlue
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 10-18-12
                            • 248

                            #14
                            Thanks for your kind donation. Obviously you were not so sharp on this one.

                            Originally posted by khaden
                            All over Mitt to win I think and hope he wins big. WE are all ****** if fucktard Barry Hussain gets another 4 years to screw the country forever.

                            11/6/12 4:51pm $250.00 $737.50 Pending 11/6/12 10:00am Politics Other Sports 1002 Mitt Romney wins 2012 election +295* vs Barack Obama wins 2012 election
                            11/5/12 4:12pm $370.00 $1,036.00 Pending 11/6/12 6:00am Politics Other Sports 1002 Mitt Romney wins 2012 election +280* vs Barack Obama wins 2012 election
                            Comment
                            • Betman
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 10-20-05
                              • 300

                              #15
                              One lesson Obama learned from the election :

                              The first debate is always the most important one



                              Two lessons Romney learned from the election :

                              Never lie to the American people especially those in Ohio

                              Show your bloody tax returns especially those from the last 10 years
                              Comment
                              • Coach Jake
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 09-24-11
                                • 457

                                #16
                                If you were hoping for mitt to win, than it's been smart to bet Obama to cover your losses....lesson I learned being a Colorado fan....bet against your team and at least get paid if your team loses, lol.
                                Comment
                                • Coach Jake
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 09-24-11
                                  • 457

                                  #17
                                  still alot of election to go, florida or not, I still think it's ohio
                                  Comment
                                  • Betman
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 10-20-05
                                    • 300

                                    #18
                                    Obama has 244 electoral votes in the bag

                                    If he wins Florida, he will have the 270 votes he needs to be reelected. Ohio will not matter
                                    Comment
                                    • Betman
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 10-20-05
                                      • 300

                                      #19
                                      Make that 250 votes. He just won in Iowa
                                      Comment
                                      • Betman
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 10-20-05
                                        • 300

                                        #20
                                        The jeep ad Romney used in Ohio was an act of political terrorism.

                                        A clown like that should be in jail
                                        Comment
                                        • BeantownBlue
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 10-18-12
                                          • 248

                                          #21
                                          CNN projects Obama win.

                                          If you are a republican, you really have to hate those tea party radicals. They are the ones who cost the Presidential election as well as several senate seats.

                                          God Bless America!
                                          Comment
                                          • Betman
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 10-20-05
                                            • 300

                                            #22
                                            Boy oh boy ! I can't wait to hear Romney's concession speech and enjoy watching the expression of defeat on his lying face and the face of the arrogant bitch he is married to.


                                            The 47% won tonight. Thank God.
                                            Comment
                                            • BeantownBlue
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 10-18-12
                                              • 248

                                              #23
                                              Personally, I cannot agree more. Nicely put.

                                              Originally posted by Betman
                                              Boy oh boy ! I can't wait to hear Romney's concession speech and enjoy watching the expression of defeat on his lying face and the face of the arrogant bitch he is married to.


                                              The 47% won tonight. Thank God.
                                              Comment
                                              • Frisco
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 02-27-12
                                                • 6138

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by BeantownBlue
                                                CNN projects Obama win.

                                                If you are a republican, you really have to hate those tea party radicals. They are the ones who cost the Presidential election as well as several senate seats.

                                                God Bless America!
                                                tea party radicals lol. your bankroll financed by unemployment benefits and welfare?
                                                Comment
                                                • Coach Jake
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 09-24-11
                                                  • 457

                                                  #25
                                                  Well, good election....Hope everyone made a buck....socialism probably isn't cheap, hahaha
                                                  Comment
                                                  • BeantownBlue
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 10-18-12
                                                    • 248

                                                    #26
                                                    LMAO.
                                                    I'm sure you're all in for Mourdock and his dumb supporters.

                                                    Originally posted by Frisco
                                                    tea party radicals lol. your bankroll financed by unemployment benefits and welfare?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Coach Jake
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 09-24-11
                                                      • 457

                                                      #27
                                                      people not bein able to agree is exactly why I had to bet on this election....no arguments any more though.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • eeezzzz
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 08-24-12
                                                        • 703

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Coach Jake
                                                        If you were hoping for mitt to win, than it's been smart to bet Obama to cover your losses....lesson I learned being a Colorado fan....bet against your team and at least get paid if your team loses, lol.
                                                        lol
                                                        Comment
                                                        • khaden
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-19-09
                                                          • 1864

                                                          #29
                                                          God help us 4 more years of this fucktard.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Coach Jake
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 09-24-11
                                                            • 457

                                                            #30
                                                            lol, better than that other fucktard
                                                            Comment
                                                            • khaden
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-19-09
                                                              • 1864

                                                              #31
                                                              Hussain has proven himself to be a totally incompetent leader and President. Who knows how Mitt would have done, but atleast he ran businesses Hussain never ran a lemonade stand, why would people expect him to be capable of running the largest economy in the world. We get exactly what we deserve when we elect people like this
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Coach Jake
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 09-24-11
                                                                • 457

                                                                #32
                                                                If sayin that in 2008 didnt work, then why would it work now? He's been the president for 4 years already so it cracks me up yall havent nixed the experience dis, lol. Way to dis on our president and claim to know what's best for our country in the same breath. You should at least own up and admit you want what's best for a minority, and not best for all Americans.

                                                                These extremists are strangling the Republican party and they are blind to it. We can't even agree on scientific facts, and it'll be forever until we can agree on solutions, lol. The good news for Republicans is that we're going to hit $20 Trilllion of debt, and that will have to all be Obama's fault, so republicans should sweep in 2016. Unless of course Repiblicans dismember all of their canditates one by one in the primaries again, lol.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • MrBig33
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 10-27-11
                                                                  • 405

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by khaden
                                                                  Hussain has proven himself to be a totally incompetent leader and President. Who knows how Mitt would have done, but atleast he ran businesses Hussain never ran a lemonade stand, why would people expect him to be capable of running the largest economy in the world. We get exactly what we deserve when we elect people like this
                                                                  Fact is Mitt lied...americans can not have a liar as a PRESIDENT!!....the people spoke very loud and clear on election night. But the funny thing you morons dont understand is that Obama can not do anything without the help of congress..and last time I checked the REP party held control the last 2 years...but yet claim Obama isnt getting anything done lol..only the dumb americans will believe this farce. Clinton said back in 2003 that the things bush was doing would put america back 20 years and he was right. The economy would have looked like this regardless of who was in office.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • vinhmen
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 12-05-11
                                                                    • 446

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Easiest money I've made all year was Obama -300. Various election quant models based on state polling had him around 90% win probability. Kinda like guaranteed $ on the Heisman winner following the vote-counting sites. Only the idiots who believed in "unskewing" the polls bit on Romney.
                                                                    Comment
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