Odessa dropped another weak one that is already getting pounded. Even if he felt Bendo should be that big a favorite he should have atleast taken public perception into account. Everyone wanted on the planet wanted to universally pound diaz at +260.
-
Comment -
My personal opinion is that diaz should be the favourite. His standup advantage is bigger than bensons wrestling advantage. Even though benson probably want to wrestle diaz but in a 5 round fight it wont be enough.Comment -
Thank god my local uses sportsbook's numbers. Maxed diaz, gustaffson, benz, sonnen, rory. Will arb with bendo by decision.Comment -
i bet 5dimes open diaz line at +175. I would more than happy to gangbang.Comment -
It went from +160 to +135 in secondsComment -
Love Benson but will wait until fight night as the odds keep getting betterComment -
Value is on benson now, wrestling and great sub defense should do it
Dry humpComment -
I also recall that Cerrone didn't throw more than a hand full of leg kicks. He gassed immediately after the first exchange and stood around as a punching bag for 2.75 rounds. Diaz definitely was in his head and he fell right into it. I thought he mentioned something about getting kicked in the face by a horse a week before the fight. I remember Rogan thinking that Cerrone's jaw was broken do to that fact that he was breathing with his mouth open for most of the fight.
Bendo has insane cardio and will make this fight difficult for Diaz. He is almost impossible to submit and I don't think he turns this into a brawl. I agree that Bendo is smart and mentally tough. He has improved every fight and has made smart adjustments when needed. I just feel that there is definitely value in this opening line. As others have as well seeing as how Diaz is already at +105 on 5dimes.Comment -
Bendo came down to -145... wow, I was gonna be on Diaz, but now I'm gonna be on Bendo by DecisionComment -
Bendo got insane cardio ok, smart mentally okey...smart adjustments when needed...hold up...what? so you didnt see anthony pettis fight or frankie edgar 2? Thats exactly what he doesnt do. If you talked about frankie edgar, i would more than happy to let that comment pass.Comment -
Agreed. Yes against Miller, Guida and Bocek he did what he said he wanted to do after losing to Pettis which was push the pace and not be as passive. But then against Edgar he didnt really do that, especially in the re-match, and even went as far as to completely ignore his corner's advice in the later rounds which was to grind Frankie against the cage and get takedowns.Comment -
"If Nate Diaz and Donald Cerrone didn't have a gentleman's agreement to stand and bang, Diaz wouldn't be fighting Henderson at UFC on FOX 5," Oddessa, who can be found on Twitter at @mmaodds, told MMAjunkie.com. "I think Cerrone hurt him in the first round and decided not to pursue finishing him on the ground. That was his downfall."Comment -
"If Nate Diaz and Donald Cerrone didn't have a gentleman's agreement to stand and bang, Diaz wouldn't be fighting Henderson at UFC on FOX 5," Oddessa, who can be found on Twitter at @mmaodds, told MMAjunkie.com. "I think Cerrone hurt him in the first round and decided not to pursue finishing him on the ground. That was his downfall."Comment -
^^LOLComment -
"Gentleman's agreement"...relationship before tht fight between those two couldnt be any less Gentleman like!Comment -
"I think Cerrone hurt him in the first round".....did he?Comment -
benson was a bit passive in that fight, i think pettis was leading before the 5th round if im not mistaken and i felt the kick just sealed the deal.Im willing to admit that it was a pretty even fight so its not like anthony pettis outclassed beson in any way. He seemed rather passive in the standup department once again against franky even though he still seems to win on the judges score card for some reason, but i feel the same could happen here against diaz, or it most certainly will if bendo doesnt wrestle his aaaeeeesss for several rounds and tire and grinding him down. But how often do wee se that gameplan works out? Common, hit me...how many times do wee that gameplan really work in a title fight with 5 rounds? Usually it ends up being a standup fight...almost always..so..who wins that battle? diaz..Comment -
Similar line movement to Weidman Maia
opebed by the same individualComment -
Well, Pettis won the fight 48-47 48-47 49-46, so majority of the judges had it tied going into the 5th as well. I assume one judge gave Pettis round 4 which was very close, Pettis threw up more submissions but Henderson almost ended the fight with a deep RNC that Pettis escaped. Pettis was winning the stand up and landed some nasty shots in the 5th, including a flying knee on the way in for a take down. Henderson ended up on top and took Pettis' back. Pettis escaped and got it back to the feet, that's when he landed the showtime kick. I had the fight almost dead even until the kick, both live and when I re-watched the fight.
Henderson does look passive at time with technical strikers. Pettis had the striking advantage and legitimate KO power. He got countered when he rushed in. He was successful when he used his striking, especially leg kicks, to set up the take downs. This is what he needs to do against Diaz. He can make up for some of the reach disadvantage by throwing leg kicks and Diaz obviously has problem being controlled by strong wrestlers/grapplers.
Let's look at Diaz's 5 losses in the UFC
Clay Guida (Loss SD)
Joe Stevenson (Loss UD)
Gray Maynard (Loss SD)
Kim Dong-Hyun (Loss UD)
Rory MacDonald (Loss UD)
There's a pattern here, can you spot it?
Diaz's wins over Jim Miller and Nate Cerrone were impressive. (Although in Cerrone's case, anyone can look impressive when you stand in front of them looking like a flesh colored punching bag). Diaz isn't submitting Henderson by guillotine and in the Pettis fight, he defended triangles with ease. Benson will have the power advantage and with his wrestling, he can dictate where the fight takes place. Diaz has a strange style but he doesn't have KO power. Do you really think Diaz can "Stockton Slap" his way to a 5 round decision against a stronger wrestler? I don't, Henderson by decision. I hope the odds creep closer and closer come fight night.Comment -
Well the pattern is ok. He has a history of losing to strong wrestlers no doubt. But do you think diaz 2012 would lose to these fighters in a 5.round fight? He would probably lose to rory mac 7 days a week, but who wouldnt?
what you rely on benson to do is executing the game plan you want him to do. For several rounds. Bensons gameplan against frankie was to kick frankies lead leg, and to me that seems to work out pretty good, so why did he stop doing it? At the press conference he explained that frankie adjusted, and that he didnt find the room to continue doing it. That could happen against diaz. Maybe after the first two rounds this gameplan goes to hell? what then?
I have learned to not trust fighters execute perfect gameplans, if youre just trusting a fighter to do what he normally does, its a safer road. Diaz outclasses people right now, we thought miller was going to wrestle him as well. what happened? we thought cerrone somehow was going to do something smart, either leg kick him or wrestle him... its just not a very good idea to trust these fighters doing what they originally was set out to do. But i also love nate diaz style, i may be biasedComment -
Will Henderson execute a perfect game plan? Probably not. Against Nate Diaz, I don't believe he has to. Benson has amazing sub defense and he doesn't have to worry about getting KO'd. So you have to say that Nate Diaz is going to win a 5 round decision over a stronger wrestler if you have him winning. It could happen, but at the current odds, I'm not betting on it.Comment -
SeattleComment -
All Favorites
Ima put a dime on Shogun and Benson sonComment -
I pick all of the three main favorites on this card to win. Gustafson was a good bet at the -150-170 range imo. But now at -200, the value is on Shogun at +180 or higher. I will prob still end up betting the line on Alexander at anything close to -180/-200, nothing big though.
I will be playing Rory Mac at -300 or lower. I really hate playing these type of huge favorites, especially against a legend like B.J. However, betting on the youth that possess talent, or the skilled up and comers has brought me success as of late, so I will be going rather large on Rory Mac. I am really hoping that $$$ comes in on BJ later, closer to fight night.
Diaz and Bendo is a no play for me as of now. I liked Diaz at what he opened at, but now, I don't. It's a coin flip imo, so I will prob stay away from that. Henderson's last performance concerns me, and so does Diaz's last performance. Nate has been on a tear, and I think it may simply be his time. To be honest, I can't bet against the kid. I pick Bendo to win if he fights smart, and uses his wrestling combined with leg kicks, but I am not confident enough in him to execute that game plan.Comment -
MAIN CARD (FOX, 8 p.m. ET)
- Champ Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz (for lightweight title)
- Alexander Gustafsson vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
- Rory MacDonald vs. B.J. Penn
- Matt Brown vs. Mike Swick
PRELIMINARY CARD- Lavar Johnson vs. Brendan Schaub
- Mike Chiesa vs. Marcus LeVesseur
- Nam Phan vs. Dennis Siver
- Bryan Caraway vs. Mike Easton
- Ramsey Nijem vs. Joe Proctor
- John Cholish vs. Yves Edwards
- Daron Cruickshank vs. Henry Martinez
- John Albert vs. Scott Jorgensen
- Tim Means vs. Abel Trujillo
Comment -
I see Rory and Gustafsson destroying BJ and Shogun. BJ and Shogun are on the decline and it feels like UFC is setting this up for the young lions to come out on top and put good names on their resume. The young guns get the FOX exposure and then UFC can start marketing them as superstars.
I see the same thing happening with Rampage vs Glover on FOX 6.
I am going large on Rory and Gustafsson.
Nam Phan will also get destroyed by Dennis Siver on this card. Siver will be too powerful for Phanand Phan won't be able to absorb the punishment in this fight.Comment -
Will be unloading my 4th and final 5Unit MAX Wager of the year on this card.
Usually average 3-5 of these per year, this year nothing different.
Stay tuned for vid.Comment -
This card will contain one of my biggest bets of the year, too. Also, Rory Mac may not be too solid a bet guys. Warning you in advance, don't get burned. BJ is actually training for once and he made a joke out of Fitch with no training camp. Don't get too ahead of yourselves. Rory is a great prospect, but he hasn't shown me enough to think that he dominates this fight. Unless he absolutely crushes BJ with his wrestling, early and often, BJ can take him quite easily. The size differential is the problem, however; BJ is a natural featherweight who could Maynard-cut to bantamweight if he worked hard enough. Rory Mac is no Frank Edgar when it comes to takedowns, but his strength may make up for that.Comment
