Hougigo's boxing/MMA picks

[Ron_Paul_2012]

I will find it hard to bet on boxing again after that decision last night. Complete BS the only winners were the bookies. They seriously have to do something with the judging of big fights. Maybe have 7 judges and take 3 random scores or something like that.

Good idea. At least it would cost more to bribe the judges then. It's exactly what the sport of boxing needs. Which is why it will never happen. Between Gayweather vs Pac Man not happening & a list of other things. I'm just about done watching it.

[MD]

They're going to have a hell of a time stopping GGG from becoming world champ. It won't be long before we hear refs repeating the line "he's not out, I think he's just... resting."

[hougigo]

I will find it hard to bet on boxing again after that decision last night. Complete BS the only winners were the bookies. They seriously have to do something with the judging of big fights. Maybe have 7 judges and take 3 random scores or something like that.

It's the way of the game man. Some people think I'm crazy when I factor in hometown fighting or strong promoters in with what I pick... but half the time it checks out.
It sucks.... nothing we can really do about it

They're going to have a hell of a time stopping GGG from becoming world champ. It won't be long before we hear refs repeating the line "he's not out, I think he's just... resting."

Yoooo, he's already the WBA regular champ

[MD]

It's the way of the game man. Some people think I'm crazy when I factor in hometown fighting or strong promoters in with what I pick... but half the time it checks out.
It sucks.... nothing we can really do about it



Yoooo, he's already the WBA regular champ

You know exactly what I mean. There's like a thousand "world championships". I sure hope he manages to get that fight with Martinez before Martinez retires.

[hougigo]

You know exactly what I mean. There's like a thousand "world championships". I sure hope he manages to get that fight with Martinez before Martinez retires.

Hahaha, million paper champs of the world.
Next year is the best chance he got IMO.
Sergio will look for a tune up (probably Cotto in Argentina in April) and then go for the next biggest money fight. Only answer there is move up to 168 or fight Golovkin

[Mercersux]

Hahaha, million paper champs of the world.
Next year is the best chance he got IMO.
Sergio will look for a tune up (probably Cotto in Argentina in April) and then go for the next biggest money fight. Only answer there is move up to 168 or fight Golovkin

Id be curious to see how many fights GGG has at middleweight before he may decide to move up. w/o a Martinez fight he may do it much sooner. Definitely eyeing a ward fight if he keeps steamrolling peeps.

[hougigo]

Id be curious to see how many fights GGG has at middleweight before he may decide to move up. w/o a Martinez fight he may do it much sooner. Definitely eyeing a ward fight if he keeps steamrolling peeps.

They seem to be eyeing it... but he has to put on weight before he moves up. Dude started camp at 167... hold crap... that's only 7 pounds above the limit. I imagine Stevens is probably in the same range.... but he's hunting Martinez first

[MD]

What kind of chance would GGG have against Ward? Ward -240 I'd imagine.

[hougigo]

What kind of chance would GGG have against Ward? Ward -240 I'd imagine.

I don't know yet. I haven't seen how he deals with a fighter who clinches a lot. He was able to deal with Dirrell in the armatures.... but that's then and this is now.I imagine the lines will be closer though.... like Kovalev/Cleverly opener (Ward being Kovalev and GGG Cleverly)
So like -180 for Ward

[MD]

I don't know yet. I haven't seen how he deals with a fighter who clinches a lot. He was able to deal with Dirrell in the armatures.... but that's then and this is now.I imagine the lines will be closer though.... like Kovalev/Cleverly opener (Ward being Kovalev and GGG Cleverly)
So like -180 for Ward

I'd pound Ward at -180. Who in the world is a better technical boxer than him, other than Mayweather? Don't like GGG's chances, especially given the size discrepancy.

[Vaughany]

Ward decision, the usual!

[Fistula]

Do you know anything about Ryo Miyazaki or Jesus Silvestre? I've been trying to keep informed about those Japanese fighters at bantam and under lately. Ioka, Inoue, and Yamanaka are great talents, but I don't know anything about Miyazaki. It's close to a pick 'em, so the books might not be sure about this one...

[MD]

I watched some footage on Miyazaki recently. He likes to stay in the pocket and use his head and body movement to avoid punches, and counter from that position. On the outside, he likes to double up on his jab quite often. He has a real problem with counters, as they seem to hit him pretty easily. I was under the impression that he could use some work on his head movement, and I think he has issues when it comes to range control. He often doesn't know whether he wants to be on the inside or the outside. He throws very diverse combinations and utilizes a lot of different punches. Great combo instincts, that's what impressed me the most.

[Fistula]

I watched some video of both Myazaki and Silvestre. Good points above. Myazaki is a damn good boxer. He moves smoothly on the outside, knows how to use angles on the inside, and he's an accurate puncher. I agree his defence isn't impenetrable and he can be hit, and I'm not sure he'll be able to think and adjust in a tough fight. He also seems a bit fragile. Silvestre is pretty well schooled himself, has a good jab, but brings more pressure and may not let Miyazaki dictate the fight like he's used to. Though this is just based on my impressions from watching one fight of each... despite hougigo's warnings about going against hometown fighters, I'll put a half unit on Silvestre. Glad I took the time to check out these guys, it's a quality matchup.

[Fistula]

I was late in finding a stream... but Silvestre won all of the last five rounds, and almost knocked him out late. I was exactly right about Miyazaki not being able to handle smart pressure. But Miyazaki got a razor thin decision he probably didn't deserve. Again, I should've taken hougigo's advice and not gone against the home fighter! Hope there's a rematch. I'll bet on Silvestre if they fight again, lol. But more because I think Silvestre can stop him, as he almost did.

[hougigo]

I was late in finding a stream... but Silvestre won all of the last five rounds, and almost knocked him out late. I was exactly right about Miyazaki not being able to handle smart pressure. But Miyazaki got a razor thin decision he probably didn't deserve. Again, I should've taken hougigo's advice and not gone against the home fighter! Hope there's a rematch. I'll bet on Silvestre if they fight again, lol. But more because I think Silvestre can stop him, as he almost did.

I haven't been really paying attention lately... I got my 3 hour classes among my other class MTW and been busy. I didn't get to see this fight, but I heard that it was close at first, but Ryo tired down the stretch.
Japan is usually a fairly fair place until the Kamedas step in the ring.... places I don't hold too high are Germany, UK and home towns of American fighters (I.E Devon Alexander in St. Louis).
Another thing I don't like are powerfully backed fighters.
As of lately, I don't like TMT fighter's cards.
Love got way to much love on his past 2 fights

[hougigo]

FYI, there's Thursday night boxing to kick off the fight weekend.
Couple of good fights that I know will have lines on there

[hougigo]

Tough one here tonight. They got the lines for tonights card.
Perriban vs Jack
Line seems pretty right to me

This is one where the inexperienced (Jack) will make his biggest step up against a guy coming off a title fight challenge.
This'll be a difficult fight for Jack if Perriban comes aggressive and keeps the pressure on Jack. He could win on activity and aggression here.
Jack on the meanwhile, if he can maintain his distance with his jab, launch smart and accurate punches as well as dictate the pace to his liking, stands a good chance of winning.

Perriban was bombs away against Bika in his last fight, still undecided here.
IMO, the only reason I'll take Jack is because he has the TMT backing and this is Mayweather fight week. I could see him taking a close fight on the cards with some controversy.

I'd advise to stay away, but me personally... i'm leaning towards Jack with the robbery.
Perriban could very well overwhelm him... but as long as Jack finishes on his feet, he might get some love like Love

[Mercersux]

Perriban needs a stop. A decision stinks of robbery. Perriban should win but i couldn't stomach a bs decision. Probably skip but still debating. Hate fights were the side is clear but you worry about bs.

[Mercersux]

Who you liking in the main event tonight houg?

[hougigo]

Who you liking in the main event tonight houg?

I thought Diaz won the first fight and his fight with Khan showed that it wasn't just a one time thing and he can still perform. If Porter can stay busy, counter punch Diaz when he comes in and tighten up his D.... he could win a decision this time.
This is a no go for me too.
If I had to lean, i'd want to say Diaz... but I just down' know. Porter could very well win this on the cards.
Honestly, I'm waiting for tomorrow as it's the big day and I don't see anything that'll make me want to go tonight other than watch.

[Mercersux]

Yeah i have a lean in the Co-main tonight but don't feel like getting screwed in a decision. Mayday rolls Saturday so I'll just pound then.

[hougigo]

Ended in a draw.... so no love lost whoever you took.
I thought Jack won it, but Perriban was very active

[hougigo]

Dang, was hoping Molina would be a moderate underdog and Cano about the same.... bookies know what's up.

I got 3 on the Garcia/Matthysse under.... Depending on how I do on college FB tomorrow, I'm going to put more down on Matthysse by TKO-KO-DQ.... nice -175.
Only upset I see on the undercards happening is Theophane against Cano. Molina-Smith is too iffy for a prop because of Monlina's ugly style and people's inability to look good. There is a good chance of a draw here, but also the decision going either way. That's a fight I wouldn't touch unless you pick it to go the full 12 round distance.

Still looking at Theophane, Cano hasn't won a fight at the big stage yet (should have against Paulie) and Ashley is one of Mayweather's boys fighting on his card. I like his chances, he's the more experienced man, but due to his age his hands might not fly as much against the younger guy. He had made a good case against Garcia for winning and if he stays active in this fight... I like his chances. He's been getting in some good work with Mayweather and I think he beats the young man who's only quality win was against an untested kid.

Watching his line...+185 right now.

[hougigo]

To you guys who watch CFB... WTF is up with MSU with those bloated spreads? -23.5 against Youngstown? They couldn't even score on offense against USF, who's offense was nowhere to be found... their defense isn't that great too

[hougigo]

Cano lost at home against Mosely... and old, shot, slow Mosley.

A lot of people picking Cano by KO...... by KO? Big mistake

[Boxscout]

Molina-Smith is too iffy for a prop because of Monlina's ugly style and people's inability to look good. There is a good chance of a draw here, but also the decision going either way. That's a fight I wouldn't touch unless you pick it to go the full 12 round distance.

I'm on the over. I really lean to Smith at these prices. He wouldn't be the first TMT man to get some favorable treatment from the officials on a Floyd card. But I'm just too busy this week to properly cap it. Was hoping you'd have a stance. Oh well.

I agree, Theophane seems the right side too.

[hougigo]

Really liking Theophane here... very underrated and finally has the backing... I'm taking him.... if a prop by decision pops up, i'm taking that too

[hougigo]

I'm on the over. I really lean to Smith at these prices. He wouldn't be the first TMT man to get some favorable treatment from the officials on a Floyd card. But I'm just too busy this week to properly cap it. Was hoping you'd have a stance. Oh well.

I agree, Theophane seems the right side too.

Molina can be so hit and miss sometimes.... on the cards that is. He has such an ugly style that sometimes judges will go against him... or they just don't flat out want him to win.

Cards that were messed up:

JCC JR X2
Lara
Kirkland (no way Kirkland was that far up).

If anybody took a side, I think that Ishe is worth a punt. Nady is the ref as well and he'll break them up every time they clinch because Molina is a clincher.

I will personally not touch it, but Ishe stands a good chance to win this fight. I thought it'd be closer, but Molina is the favorite... Ishe by decision is possible.
Just saying, props for the winning method is dangerous here..... it could not only swing either way, but could very well end up a draw.

I want Molina to win, but Ishe's chances are decent. The IBF belt holder has been trash the past couple of years too.
Ishe's alright... but not world class. Molina is a spoiler and a ugly fighter

[hougigo]

Making a play on Theophane here... looks like he dropped

Got it at +155

[hougigo]

not my post, but one that back ups my thoughts of a late KO for Mayweather (I said TKO 10)

1. Ego. Canelo is being touted as a guy that has a bigger fan base than him, and a potentially bigger cash cow than him. When was the last time someone said that, honestly? I mean people have their laughs on here but when has it been seriously posed that a guy is as big a star or a potentially bigger star than Floyd, aside from ODH, Pac, and Gatti way back when? He's going to want to prove his supremacy and won't be satisfied with a decision . Canelo refusing the belt pic just sealed his fate. Floyd will punish this kid.

2. Business. Canelo is a young, marketable kid. If the fight is at all close, Floyd could get robbed. And that hurts his bottom line. People can say it won't, that the rematch will be very lucrative, but Floyd's 0 is worth more to him. He has to make this not close, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he feels he has to take it out of the judges hands.

3. Sharpness. With less time between his last fight and the added motivation of the previous two factors on his training, he will be crisper and faster than ever before in recent memory, he will be very sharp, probably the best version of Floyd we've seen in years.

4. In the last ********** the most telling moment was how much starch Floyd was putting on his body shots in training in the end of the episode. He will go to the body hard. Thats in his plan.


Now for Nelo's side...


5. Stamina. Canelo gasses late, this is something he struggles with. He fights in spurts. Mayweather is one of the most exhausting fighters to fight in the world. Constantly making you miss, and constantly making you think, and gradually sapping all of your and will to win. guys that are tired don't defend nearly as well either.

6. weight. He put his body through the ringer to reach 152... he is a big 154 lber as it is. Guys that cut a lot of weight are vulnerable to the body.


Good chance of a tko in the latter half of the fight...

I'm taking the spread and then putting Mayweather KO small in rounds 7-12

[hougigo]

Danny looked like he had trouble losing weight too at the weigh ins... the under and Matthysse by KO is starting to look ohh so much better.
I'm soo excited for tonight!
lines seem exceptional here for Matthysse.... I'm putting down a lot on him. Honestly... I'm screwed if he loses, hahaha.
Just one of those plays i feel no way he'll lose/get shafted.
He'll cap off 2013 with one more KO of the year candidate

[Fistula]

Doesn't the spread cover a KO too? Mayweather -9.5 seems pretty solid. He basically has to win by an average 116-112. But I already took Mayweather straight. I'm just on Mayweather straight and Molina straight for the card. I maintain that Molina is better in every way and it won't be close. Unlike most people I'm not convinced Garcia can't have success against Lucas and I couldn't come to a decision about Cano-Theophane, so just the two picks for me. Enough to cover the show's cost... or to make this a $200 ppv.

[hougigo]

Doesn't the spread cover a KO too? Mayweather -9.5 seems pretty solid. He basically has to win by an average 116-112. But I already took Mayweather straight. I'm just on Mayweather straight and Molina straight for the card. I maintain that Molina is better in every way and it won't be close. Unlike most people I'm not convinced Garcia can't have success against Lucas and I couldn't come to a decision about Cano-Theophane, so just the two picks for me. Enough to cover the show's cost... or to make this a $200 ppv.

Yea, that's mainly why i'm on it, i think a KO or stoppage is possible.
Molina is better, not arguing there, but he just has that ugly style for the refs and judges. Look at the Kirkland fight. That was a fight he was clearly winning, he was close on one and down on another.
I mean, you know me... I'm skeptical all the time in this boxing game.

As for Garcia, I honestly can't see it any other way. It may bite me in the ass... but I just think Garcia is going to get wrecked and Matthysse is going to kill him. Garcia is a big puncher in his own right... but it's in those hooks he throws. Other than that... he doesn't have much else to deter Matthysse, who'll come at him... which I guess works in Danny's favor.

As for Cano/Theophane... a close fight that I think the vet will pull out. He's done better gym work recently, sparred with one of the best men in the world, basically under his guidance since he came over and has the TMT backing in this fight fighting on his card.
Cano hasn't impressed me either in his last couple of fights. The last 3 big fights of his last 4, stopped by Morales, arguably beat Paulie and got beat by a shopworn mosely at home.

Yo man, if you don't got a lean on the other 2, i suggest not to touch. Just go with what you have and enjoy a night of fighting.

*had to edit out my comment on Kirkland/Molina.
I said he was down on all three, he was only down on one. Close on another and one of them seemed okay.

[hougigo]

Was gonna change my photo to Miss Jackson... but she's out since she's no longer with Floyd.
Maybe I'll change it to one of his TMT girls