UFC on FX 3...Big Play

**scofflaw** · 06-03-12, 12:02 PM

Yeah I'm on Silva too. I missed the great openers but had to lock in -165 and -170 because I suspected the line might get even worse. Considering arbing out partially with Brenneman by decision if I like the price closer to the fight.

I've also been thinking that Not Anderson Silva by 5 round decision is almost a gimme and I should parlay everything with that.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 06-03-12, 12:25 PM

Ya, I might entertain scalping with Bren by decision, but probably won't bet much on it, if at all...

**Vaughany** · 06-03-12, 12:35 PM

I think there are still a lot of unknowns about Silva while on the other hand we have a pretty good understanding of Brenneman's game. We know tht aside from his decent wrestling, he is also very durable and highly determined with a lot of heart. How will Silva deal being on his back if Brenneman gets it there? Silva is obviously a more seasoned BJJ practitioner but will it be enough to counter The Spaniards top control? Brenneman also has a solid chin, so if Silva doesnt manage to finish him u are counting on him doing enough damage and controlling the ground action enough to get the decision, which for me is always a dangerous game when betting on a favourite who could potentially be on his back for periods of each round. Not easy to have ur first fight outside of ur home country against a relentless wrestler

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 06-03-12, 12:39 PM

agreed, V, there are a few unknowns...I just think Silva is a higher pedigree fighter from what I've seen of him and Brenneman is a good wrestler with heart but I believe the cream will rise to the top here and Silva's dynamic striking will spell nighty night for ol' Charlie...I also think that if Charlie does get takedowns, Silva can get a sub...one way or another Silva gets it done inside the distance

**Imsmarterthanu** · 06-03-12, 01:43 PM

Silva will destroy brenneman

he will be a little more tentative this time around but it won't matter because his size alone will neutralize any strength brenneman has wrestling wise, brenneman is gonna eat punches to the head all day

**fosho14** · 06-03-12, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

I think there are still a lot of unknowns about Silva while on the other hand we have a pretty good understanding of Brenneman's game. We know tht aside from his decent wrestling, he is also very durable and highly determined with a lot of heart. How will Silva deal being on his back if Brenneman gets it there? Silva is obviously a more seasoned BJJ practitioner but will it be enough to counter The Spaniards top control? Brenneman also has a solid chin, so if Silva doesnt manage to finish him u are counting on him doing enough damage and controlling the ground action enough to get the decision, which for me is always a dangerous game when betting on a favourite who could potentially be on his back for periods of each round. Not easy to have ur first fight outside of ur home country against a relentless wrestler

V, you beat me too it. That is exactly what I was gonna say, agree completely.

Dangerous line for Erick. What are your thoughts Luca?

**Imsmarterthanu** · 06-03-12, 02:28 PM

Silva can do a backflip off the cage i think he can manage to get a hairy skinny jewish guy off of him

**Crassus** · 06-03-12, 02:31 PM

Ian McCall by submission my friends, I grabbed McCall ITD at +900 and that's a solid bet in my book. Ian McCall at + odds overall though is also good if you're not as confident as I am (granted that would be fair, Johnsons never really been close to being finished as far as I can recall)

**Imsmarterthanu** · 06-03-12, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by Crassus

Ian McCall by submission my friends, I grabbed McCall ITD at +900 and that's a solid bet in my book. Ian McCall at + odds overall though is also good if you're not as confident as I am (granted that would be fair, Johnsons never really been close to being finished as far as I can recall)

That's a dumbass bet

**bjpenn85** · 06-03-12, 02:48 PM

So said someone at this forum when i bought silva sub @ 10.50 vs chael sonnen.

**fosho14** · 06-03-12, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by Imsmarterthanu

Silva will destroy brenneman

he will be a little more tentative this time around but it won't matter because his size alone will neutralize any strength brenneman has wrestling wise, brenneman is gonna eat punches to the head all day

you don't think that Silva will end up on his back at any point throughout the duration of the fight? Agree to disagree I suppose.

**Deal With It** · 06-03-12, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

Erick Silva -175 over Charlie brenneman...

Good luck Jake!

**snufflyjoe** · 06-03-12, 04:01 PM

I actually like brennaman in this one if he survives the first I think he takes it

**bjpenn85** · 06-03-12, 04:30 PM

Joe silva made this fight because of:

1. Test Silvas skills against a good wrestler
2. To let Brenneman "handle" a tuff striker in Silva, since he usually gets Koed by power strikers.

I dont think Silva wears off after the first round. He has stoppages in 2. and 3. round as well. Brennemans striking skills, or lack of rather, will probably be his downfall. Erik silva is way better off his back than rick story.

**BIGDAY** · 06-03-12, 04:48 PM

Best of luck PEAVER!!!

**poopoo333** · 06-03-12, 04:57 PM

Maybe some of you should watch some of Silva's fights in Brazil before he came to the UFC. Was being taken down and controlled in a ring by much lesser wrestlers.

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 06-03-12, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by Crassus

Ian McCall by submission my friends, I grabbed McCall ITD at +900 and that's a solid bet in my book. Ian McCall at + odds overall though is also good if you're not as confident as I am (granted that would be fair, Johnsons never really been close to being finished as far as I can recall)

Agreed.

MM was nearly finished by a guillotine by Cruz and nearly TKOed at the end of the third by McCall. He's a resilient fighter though.

Certainly both guys will be looking for the finish to avoid another judging debacle so getting an implied probability bet of 10% when he very nearly pulled it off last fight is +EV.

I have 1U on McCall at +966 and 2U on McCall at +160 (although the straight play I may arb)

**bjpenn85** · 06-03-12, 05:10 PM

If i remember correctly he does threaten with subs a lot as well in most fights. And in most fights he seems quite comfortable getting grounded. I do agree that it is dangerous to underestimate brennemans wrestling. Subject to liveplay after round 1 probably...

**MMAbetMASTA** · 06-03-12, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by poopoo333

Maybe some of you should watch some of Silva's fights in Brazil before he came to the UFC. Was being taken down and controlled in a ring by much lesser wrestlers.

yup, two of his one night tourney fights he was losing from what I read because he was continuosly grounded. I think charlie has some of the best mma wrestling around - he's taken down everyone he wanted to outside of ginormous Johnson. However, charlie is a small ww and silva is big, smartsy does have a point with silva's size at that is something charlie could struggle with (but then again, story is a pretty big ww and he grounded him consistently). Yet silva will prob have the best jitz game charlies has faced outside of roberts (which he handled well). I think silva is a rightful fav because if charlie doesn't get it down and keep it there for 3 rounds I know the judges will award what damage silva does on the time spent on the feet (assuming he hadn't already stopped charlie with strikes). Yet I can't take silva because of many 'question marks' people have already pointed out. Lots of hype, but lots to live up to and lots we don't know about, so hard to take him as a fav against one of the best mma wrestlers in the game (and a very intelligent person with great fight iq I might add). If charlie becomes a bigger dog and gets to +160 or so I'll prob take a small stab. Unfortunately I don't, but if you have prop options the only play for this fight should be charlie by decision imo... GL, ts.

**gabe** · 06-03-12, 07:41 PM

I've been waiting to fade both Silva and Brenneman... so this is a tough fight to pick! Ha--- Thankfully, I did fade Silva in his last bout and it paid off immensely. =)

**Imsmarterthanu** · 06-03-12, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by gabe

I've been waiting to fade both Silva and Brenneman... so this is a tough fight to pick! Ha--- Thankfully, I did fade Silva in his last bout and it paid off immensely. =)

so you "faded" a guy who beat the shit out of his opponent and lost by a technicality , somehow you think that's what the term fade relates to.

I can tell you it only makes you look stupider than you already are

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 06-03-12, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by Imsmarterthanu

so you "faded" a guy who beat the shit out of his opponent and lost by a technicality , somehow you think that's what the term fade relates to.

I can tell you it only makes you look stupider than you already are

Pfft, Erick's all hype bro. Knew Prater would beat him in under a minute.

**poopoo333** · 06-03-12, 08:16 PM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

yup, two of his one night tourney fights he was losing from what I read because he was continuosly grounded. I think charlie has some of the best mma wrestling around - he's taken down everyone he wanted to outside of ginormous Johnson. However, charlie is a small ww and silva is big, smartsy does have a point with silva's size at that is something charlie could struggle with (but then again, story is a pretty big ww and he grounded him consistently). Yet silva will prob have the best jitz game charlies has faced outside of roberts (which he handled well). I think silva is a rightful fav because if charlie doesn't get it down and keep it there for 3 rounds I know the judges will award what damage silva does on the time spent on the feet (assuming he hadn't already stopped charlie with strikes). Yet I can't take silva because of many 'question marks' people have already pointed out. Lots of hype, but lots to live up to and lots we don't know about, so hard to take him as a fav against one of the best mma wrestlers in the game (and a very intelligent person with great fight iq I might add). If charlie becomes a bigger dog and gets to +160 or so I'll prob take a small stab. Unfortunately I don't, but if you have prop options the only play for this fight should be charlie by decision imo... GL, ts.

Yeah, the size difference might come into play, I have considered that. I laid 2u on Brenneman by decision when it was @+239..might lay more on Brenneman straight as well

**GunShard** · 06-03-12, 10:36 PM

I'm also on Silva. As far as I know, I think he trains with Anderson Silva and Jose Aldo.

If Silva's takedown defense can hold up against Brenneman, Silva should be able to win this.

**The HOFF** · 06-03-12, 11:33 PM

Brenneman can only win by dec for sure. But I think Silva has the striking prowess to eventually thump lil' Charlie. Brenneman is clueless on the feet so he'll need to dry hump for 3 rounds and I'm not sure he'll be able to do that.

**fosho14** · 06-04-12, 01:34 AM

Originally posted by The HOFF

Brenneman can only win by dec for sure. But I think Silva has the striking prowess to eventually thump lil' Charlie. Brenneman is clueless on the feet so he'll need to dry hump for 3 rounds and I'm not sure he'll be able to do that.

pretty much my thoughts as exactly. He'll be able to get him down once or twice but I don't think he'll be able to hold him down or do enough damage to pull out the W on the judges scorecards. That being said quite a few "what ifs" and question marks to be -175.

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 06-04-12, 08:33 AM

a lot of you guys have brought up some valid points about Silva not being tested and not being taken down yet in the UFC..some good food for thought but I'm sticking to my guns

**BIGDAY** · 06-04-12, 09:34 AM

Stick to your guns Peaver

... My WRASTLERS are getting owned currently.

**gabe** · 06-04-12, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by Imsmarterthanu

so you "faded" a guy who beat the shit out of his opponent and lost by a technicality , somehow you think that's what the term fade relates to.

I can tell you it only makes you look stupider than you already are

I faded him on the fight he lost, and made a lot of money. Pretty sure I said that in my last post. You're such a dumb guy. lol

Yeah, you fade someone when you think they're over-hyped and over-valued. Again, you're such a dumb guy. lol

**Vaughany** · 06-04-12, 10:16 AM

**JAKEPEAVY21** · 06-04-12, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Stick to your guns Peaver

... My WRASTLERS are getting owned currently.

yes sir BIGDAY..I view Brenneman as a middle of the road type guy that gets the most out of his abilities...on the other hand, I see Silva as a future star....we shall see if the cream rises to the top or Charlie dry humps him for 3 rounds

**fosho14** · 06-04-12, 11:49 AM

I guess it's worth the risk on silva boys. The reality is we most likely won't see a -170 line on this guy in the near future if he turns out to be the real deal and stuffs all brenneman's takedowns and then wrecks him. I would be very very surprised if Brenneman is able to LnP for at least 2 full rounds but of course it's looming in the back of my mind. Similar to the brookins/aloe-vera I just don't see it happening though as Silva is too dynamic.

**DirtyX** · 06-04-12, 05:28 PM

Very confident in Silva here. Charlie's resume isn't impressive at all imo. Besides Story, he has wins over nobody but cans. He loses to anyone that is skilled, i.e. Johnson and Hendricks. At -170, I am putting at least double the line down on Silva Straight up. After he runs through Charlie, you will be hard pressed to find Silva at anything less than -250 range. I think this is a great bet for the odds.

**zoo youk** · 06-07-12, 11:00 AM

good looks brother! I will be tailing!