UFC on FUEL TV 3

[Vitooch]

Sorry for the spamming, but Lawlor/Tavares parlay looks solid

Looking forward to doing some heavy reasearch tonight instead of studying chemistry until my eyes bleed

If anyone finds interesting fight videos post please

[Beelzebubzy]

Yep, would max the **** out of Lawlor up to -225 I reckon. Only way Jason MacDonald wins is by sub IMO. May still do a big play on Lawlor hedged with Athlete by sub. Pokrajac is moving in to value territory I agree.

I like Lawlor here too but he has gassed in the passed. Simpson fight and the Doerkson fight IIRC.

[Beelzebubzy]

I was hoping for better on RDA and by the time it opens at dimes... who knows. But back on topic - when was the last time Kamal grapple humped?! ;p To be fair to RDA, his jaw was broke when he quit. That wasn't quite BJ Penn sitting on the stool level quitting there...

This is a loser goes home matchup. I think Dry humping has a much higher percentage in those fights. (Lawlor/Cote)

[Vaughany]

I like Lawlor here too but he has gassed in the passed. Simpson fight and the Doerkson fight IIRC.

yeah but he also dominated those first rounds didnt he? I know for sure he was battering Simpson...if he does tht to Jason Mac he'll be on the floor tapping to strikes again within minutes! He's only fighting for a paycheck now and was going to retire after the Belcher fight

[Beelzebubzy]

yeah but he also dominated those first rounds didnt he? I know for sure he was battering Simpson...if he does tht to Jason Mac he'll be on the floor tapping to strikes again within minutes! He's only fighting for a paycheck now and was going to retire after the Belcher fight

I agree completely. However, gassing plus poor fighter IQ(IMO) plus a dangerous ground game in Jmac is a bad combination. This fight could play out similarly to the Doerkson fight Fight to not go the distance will be in my parlays via the V educamacation system.

[Educ8d Degener8]

This is a loser goes home matchup. I think Dry humping has a much higher percentage in those fights. (Lawlor/Cote)

Yeah, I should've mentioned that in my post - I get that here... but seeing as you mentioned you like to fade Kamal regularly... he fights like a brawler with a low fight IQ. He'll definitely need to stick to a gameplan here and work takedowns (ala his match vs Bartimus). Gonna watch this line movement.

[Vaughany]

I agree completely. However, gassing plus poor fighter IQ(IMO) plus a dangerous ground game in Jmac is a bad combination. This fight could play out similarly to the Doerkson fight Fight to not go the distance will be in my parlays via the V educamacation system.

yep I like tht thinking! If the inside distance type props aren't available I'll probably have to use the under 2.5 on some of these.... Rivera/Soto, Lawlor/JMac, Grant/Prater

[Vitooch]

The high possibility that Lawlor dry humps Macdonald makes me hesitate an under bet.

I think Lawlor at anything under -220 is good enough value

[Beelzebubzy]

Yeah, I should've mentioned that in my post - I get that here... but seeing as you mentioned you like to fade Kamal regularly... he fights like a brawler with a low fight IQ. He'll definitely need to stick to a gameplan here and work takedowns (ala his match vs Bartimus). Gonna watch this line movement.

I think RDA via decision is the play. RDA does not have KO power. (I do not think GSOT has a chin) and conventionally thinking is that RDA will not be able to take Kamal down (outside of a punch) hence he will not have many sub opportunities. Then this is a RDA out box Kamal decision play

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I think RDA via decision is the play. RDA does not have KO power. (I do not think GSOT has a chin) and conventionally thinking is that RDA will not be able to take Kamal down (outside of a punch) hence he will not have many sub opportunities. Then this is a RDA out box Kamal decision play

Nah. Kamal can easily get starched on the feet by a counter to his looping punches. Case & point, G-Sot.

Kamal seems to get rocked (rather than dropped) easily (Varner, Bart, Miller, Nurmago"dontcallmeBernie"medov). RDA can easily finish him if he gets rocked with a sub or get a reversal and sub him (i.e. I believe RDA reversed Etim nicely, subbed him although I think the sub was off a completed TD, IIRC). Also, anyone that's taken RDA down has had excellent submission defence (i.e. Griffin, Guida, Tibau) whereas Kamal really hasn't fought guys with slick BJJ (I wouldn't call Bart's GG elite, but he's the best opponent that went to the ground with Kamal). Miller stood with him and Berniemedov hurt them then eventually subbed him.

RDA outclasses Shalorus everywhere and can very likely finish this fight on the feet or on the ground. I think it's pretty even that RDA wins by sub or decision with TKO a bit less likely.

[Vaughany]

The high possibility that Lawlor dry humps Macdonald makes me hesitate an under bet.

I think Lawlor at anything under -220 is good enough value

He'd be retarded to even consider dry-humping MacDonald. To dry hump him would mean to take it to the ground where he is in MacDonald's zone. Would make no sense

[bjpenn85]

do you think Tom L at 1.49 is good bet? contemplating playing him

[illmatick]

Rda subs him sometime between 2:10 and 2:45 of the second round. Just has to avoid eating a wild hook in the first. I thought he showed decent recovery time after getting rocked against Gleison Tibau.

Hougland, lawlor, Rivera lines, o-wow.

[Vaughany]

do you think Tom L at 1.49 is good bet? contemplating playing him

I'll probably wait and play Lawlor inside instead now. Would of maxed him up to -200. May still play him big and hedge with MacDonald by sub depending on difference in odds whether it's worth it.

[Vaughany]

Rda subs him sometime between 2:10 and 2:45 of the second round. Just has to avoid eating a wild hook in the first. I thought he showed decent recovery time after getting rocked against Gleison Tibau.

Hougland, lawlor, Rivera lines, o-wow.

yee all three gifts IMO. So annoyed cant play em..need pinnacle to release lines already!

[Vitooch]

He'd be retarded to even consider dry-humping MacDonald. To dry hump him would mean to take it to the ground where he is in MacDonald's zone. Would make no sense

I think it's more likely that Lawlor grinds a decision than finish him to be honest. I see no evidence that Lawlor has the ability to TKO/KO a UFC caliber fighter, certainly not enough to place money on. A straight up bet seems more worth it but thats just my opinion.

[NunyaBidness]

I think it's more likely that Lawlor grinds a decision than finish him to be honest. I see no evidence that Lawlor has the ability to TKO/KO a UFC caliber fighter

Yeah, but he's not facing one.

[illmatick]

exactly , he's 2-5 in his last 7 UFC fights. Tapped to strikes in two of those 5 losses.

He's made a career out of being card filler these last few years.

[Vitooch]

Then I wouldnt consider Cote, Doerksen UFC caliber either, and he was unable to finish both of them.

[illmatick]

Actually, not 100 % sure if he tapped to strikes against Wilson Gouveia. Been too long since I watched that fight.

[Vitooch]

5dimes released a few more lines...Houghland and Igor fights. May take Igor at +140.

[bjpenn85]

haha, nice. I must admit to have gabe and you side by side, is a gift to this forum. An ignorant, self-proclaimed pretty much everything, even a comedian (although some quite funny one liners seen at his iphone clip) versus a sarcastic philosopher without any hesitation to expose above mentioned qualities.

[Vitooch]

Igor line moves to +160...crazy!

[bjpenn85]

at the same time, maldonado enjoys a 11 fight win streak without a loss since 2007. Maldonado has the most wicked chin ever in ufc history as well, and pretty solid ground game. Maybe igor is a bit quicker, but yeah. If playing igor, it will have to be inside distance, prob by KO. But maldonas chin again, + when did we see maldonado get Koed, never.

[illmatick]

Movement hasn't surprised me. If i could trust Maldonado to fight smart I'd be all over him at less than -200. Staying away for now.

[Vitooch]

Thought Igor had some sort of grappling game, guess not

[Vitooch]

I'm not sure if I see enough in Houghland for me to make a play on him.

Houghland looked good against a mediocre fighter. Jabouin is much more of a UFC caliber fighter.

[bjpenn85]

fast and athletic guys like yves isnt the easist to take down either. ok value play, but difficult to see houghland pull this one off.

[Vitooch]

That's why I don't see this as an ok value play. Yves is a better striker...more versatile and explosive. I don't think Houghland's wrestling and top game are good enough to keep Yves down. On the ground, Houghland likes to threaten with alot of submissions, and doesn't like to stay idle on top. Yves sub defense is very solid. I see him lighting Houghland up on the feet with leg kicks, push kicks, and body kicks, and if Houghland does manage to get on top, I don't think his control is good enough for him to score significant points and he is not patient enough with submission game to tap Yves out. Seems like the world maxed out on Houghland, and I'm not sure why.

[bjpenn85]

yves isnt a top level guy even though some of his skills, like his striking, is up there. Its a bit surprising that the price on him falls so quickly, but the odds will likely readjust. the odds on yves at 1.25, the opener isnt justified, and the market have probably recognised that, based on yves past troubles with people that have exposed him on the ground. But im not buying into that. I need to see jeff beat ufc caliber strikers that have had several training camps before preparing for wrestlers. First then, will i give him a shot.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I'm not sure if I see enough in Houghland for me to make a play on him.

Houghland looked good against a mediocre fighter. Jabouin is much more of a UFC caliber fighter.

At the opener odds houghland was a steal...

Yet odds aside, I think jabouin's got this.

Like you said, houghland looked good against a 'meh' guy and the rest of his comp is pretty lackluster. Yves has fought some of the best in the biz. He's faced opponents with much, much better grappling and td ability, and he gave them very tough fights. All his fights, even in losses, he gave a hell of a fight and imo has VERY underrated grappling. He's very tough to take down and keep there... Solid tdd. and houghland struggled wiht the tds as the fight progressed against a smaller, less skilled fighter in walker.

Yves was overvalued at the opener, but he's starting to get where I would have put him at. Yet still undecided on where I cap him at and where I might play him at. I still won't pay the current odds though, was hoping he'd be much closer to evens, so i think the value is still on houghland at this point.

Tempted to give my insight for the other fights, but I'm gonna wait till those lines get up on my book. Loving some of these lines though and super jealous on some of the opners you all got...

Maldonado at -155 was japanese pusssy - ripe for a pounding.

[Mercersux]

at the same time, maldonado enjoys a 11 fight win streak without a loss since 2007. Maldonado has the most wicked chin ever in ufc history as well, and pretty solid ground game. Maybe igor is a bit quicker, but yeah. If playing igor, it will have to be inside distance, prob by KO. But maldonas chin again, + when did we see maldonado get Koed, never.

Didn't Maldonado just lose a couple fights ago to Kingsbury?

[Crassus]

Igor's a real solid bet in my opinion, completely unimpressed by Maldonado.

[gabe]

haha, nice. I must admit to have gabe and you side by side, is a gift to this forum. An ignorant, self-proclaimed pretty much everything, even a comedian (although some quite funny one liners seen at his iphone clip) versus a sarcastic philosopher without any hesitation to expose above mentioned qualities.

what makes me ignorant?

and what have i claimed to be?

fkn tool.

[Vitooch]

Igor's a real solid bet in my opinion, completely unimpressed by Maldonado.

Fabio has a great chin but his style of fighting does not translate into MMA. Solid boxing, great chin, but lacking in the grappling department. He seems completely content to stand and never improve on his ground game.

I'm not sure if Igor intends to or even possesses the ability to take this fight to the ground and control a grappling deficient Fabio. I do see he touts a bunch of submission wins. Igor at +160 is not a steal but if this line continues to improve I see this a possibly solid play.