TUF 15 episode 4 and Bellator 63 odds !

**MMAbetMASTA** · 03-30-12, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

You are an idiot. The lines adjust according to where the money is going.

Rickels is +156

Once the lines are out, yes I agree and I don't think the discussion on here affects the line movement in any way, its all based on the money spread / action at that point...

However, you're an idiot if you think that the discussion on here doesn't affect how the line is first set by various books, and since any of us could be working for a book and anyone can view this forum, its best to keep your fat mouths shut until the lines are out. I know that is impossible as this is a discussion forum and its a free enterprise (and a lot of people take their image on here way too seriously and are pathetically desperate to be the first person to make a prediction), but if we can all be disciplined to not be dumbshits and keep our mouths shut before a line is out, I think it can only help out our prospective betting as I guarantee line setters know who are solid cappers on here...

Barking up the same tree, I know, but I'll keep saying it.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 03-30-12, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by Libert1ne

Highlight of Amoussou, showing some of his slick jits (sweeps and subs) GnP and kicks

pretty exciting guy and great diversity in his offense... however, he leaves himself WIDE open which will be a bad move against a powerful counter puncher like lozano. if he comes out wild like I've seen, that will be a gift for lozano imo... But then again, I wouldn't call lozano's striking defense impressive either... Ill admit this will be much closer than originally thought, and psycho at good + odds is a good play. However, I still think lozano will win and if he gets down to -150 or better I think its worth it and I might play him. He is still at -175 on my book so I'm hoping they update soon, although I might just stay away from this one as it seems pretty competitive and a lot of you solid cappers here are taking Karl. either way it should be a very exciting fight.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-30-12, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

Once the lines are out, yes I agree and I don't think the discussion on here affects the line movement in any way, its all based on the money spread / action at that point...

Discussion affects line movement as it sways peoples opinions and who they bet on. There are lots of tailers out there. Look at Performify picks circa 2008. He shifted lines massively when he released his picks.

**ghost kid** · 03-30-12, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Discussion affects line movement as it sways peoples opinions and who they bet on. There are lots of tailers out there. Look at Performify picks circa 2008. He shifted lines massively when he released his picks.

Ah, memories. One of my favorite writeups of all time. UFC 121. Some of the craziest bullshit you will ever read:

http://mmajunkie.com/news/21127/performifys-picks-for-ufc-121.mma

"I believe this fight presents one of the better MMA betting opportunities I've seen in a while. I strongly believe that Lesnar will outclass and essentially dominate Velasquez in almost every area inside the cage, and I believe he represents a great bet at the current odds.

Lesnar is the fastest, most athletic heavyweight in the UFC, and in fact I'd say easily in the history of the UFC's heavyweight division. Velasquez is well-rounded, and while he's extremely athletic in his own right, he's nowhere near the freak physical athletic specimen as Lesnar. In short, I believe Lesnar eclipses Velasquez in every single relevant area for this fight

I believe Velasquez's only path to victory is to somehow catch Lesnar and put him on his back and overwhelm him to the point that the referee steps in – most likely in what would be an incorrect early stoppage. It goes without saying, but being in a situation where there's very little chance you can significantly damage your opponent and you must depend on an early stoppage from the referee is not a solid way to win a fight. "

**MMAbetMASTA** · 03-30-12, 05:23 PM

Interesting stuff, ghost... And nunya I hear you, I would think once lines are out it the movement would be stricly based on where the money is placed, but I wouldn't be surprised if discussion and insight while the line is out did affect the line movement... Tricky game we have here fellas...

On another note, I was very suprised to see lozano's line shift toward more fav odds... I thought it would def go down as it seemed lots of poeple not just here, but in prediction articles too, are favoring karl. Too pricey now for me at this point, he's -200 on my book (-170 only an hour ago and I thought he'd def drop more...).

Probably gonna sit this event out unless lozano drops a lot by fight time... My gut is telling me to stay away from this card. Either way some solid fights tonight - GL and enjoy everyone

**Vitooch** · 03-30-12, 05:30 PM

Amoussou is at +180 on one book. Really considering a play at these odds.

Hopefully Bookmaker adds some props like Amoussou ITD or something but I doubt it.

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Amoussou is at +180 on one book. Really considering a play at these odds.

Hopefully Bookmaker adds some props like Amoussou ITD or something but I doubt it.

Fights start in a hour and a half, highly doubt they'll bother adding props

**MMAbetMASTA** · 03-30-12, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Amoussou is at +180 on one book. Really considering a play at these odds.

Hopefully Bookmaker adds some props like Amoussou ITD or something but I doubt it.

thinking about the same...value is def on psyco now, but i still got lozano as a 'paper pick' per se... Hoping he has some dramatic drop in his line by fight time, but don't think it will get low enough to entice me, on the contrary psycho's line is now appealing to me. In the end prob gonna stay away, but I'll post the play if I make it!! GL tonight.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-30-12, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by ghost kid

Ah, memories. One of my favorite writeups of all time. UFC 121. Some of the craziest bullshit you will ever read:

http://mmajunkie.com/news/21127/performifys-picks-for-ufc-121.mma

"I believe this fight presents one of the better MMA betting opportunities I've seen in a while. I strongly believe that Lesnar will outclass and essentially dominate Velasquez in almost every area inside the cage, and I believe he represents a great bet at the current odds.

I think at the end there he was screwing with people in order to get the lines to move the way he wanted. He was hyping Forrest Griffin over Anderson Silva. I think he lost a lot of respect there, and disappeared pretty quickly afterwards, IIRC.

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 07:11 PM

Fuuuckin firstrow stream not working...anybody have one?

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 03-30-12, 07:14 PM

Paramount Network | Homepage - Shows & Schedules

http://www.spike.com/shows/bellator-fighting-championships/live

Paramount Network is home to boundary-pushing scripted and non-scripted shows, featuring unforgettable characters and immersive stories on Yellowstone, Bar Rescue, Ink Master and more.

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 07:15 PM

They never work for me over here

**dww123** · 03-30-12, 07:17 PM

I don't think it starts for 45 minutes

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 03-30-12, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by dww123

I don't think it starts for 45 minutes

Saunders fight is happening right now

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 07:19 PM

First round for Saunders I see

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 07:23 PM

Apparently some sloppy Sub skills from Killa B?! Surprising after seeing what he did to Luis Santos!

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 03-30-12, 07:23 PM

Saunders is gonna blow this

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 07:25 PM

Two rounds up isnt he?!

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 03-30-12, 07:26 PM

wow Saunders giving up position

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 07:26 PM

Glad I resisted the very tempting Under 1.5!

**Vitooch** · 03-30-12, 07:27 PM

You can get an hd stream on spike.com

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

You can get an hd stream on spike.com

Not in UK u cant

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 03-30-12, 07:29 PM

Saunders wins 2-1 i say

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 07:32 PM

Bloodyelbow gave all rounds to Ben

**Kaladarus** · 03-30-12, 07:32 PM

There's a reason Saunders isn't in the UFC.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 03-30-12, 07:33 PM

vaughany try this

VIP Box Sports - Sports On Demand Online For Free | VIP Sports - VIPRow

http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/43919/1/bellator-63-live-stream-online.html

VIP Box Sports - Watch live free sport from the Premier League, live football streaming, Live NFL NBA, MLB, NHL streaming only on VIPBox sports.

**NunyaBidness** · 03-30-12, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Not in UK u cant

Use a proxy.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 03-30-12, 07:33 PM

30-26 and 30-27 30-27 for Saunders

**BIGDAY** · 03-30-12, 07:34 PM

Saunders looked good. Transitioning very nicely between sub attempts.

**Vitooch** · 03-30-12, 07:36 PM

Saunders made that mych more difficult for himself

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

30-26 and 30-27 30-27 for Saunders

Nice

**Vaughany** · 03-30-12, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

vaughany try this

http://www.vipbox.tv/watch/43919/1/b...am-online.html

Nice one, works

**NunyaBidness** · 03-30-12, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Saunders looked meh. Transitioning frequently between sloppy sub attempts.

Agreed!

**Kaladarus** · 03-30-12, 07:37 PM

He gave up top position way too often and kept getting in bad positions after submission attempts. I can't see him beating any decent wrestler at this point. That fight should have been a lot easier than what he made it.

**dww123** · 03-30-12, 07:38 PM

Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

Saunders is gonna blow this

I had 4k on Saunders. You almost gave me a heart attack