Official LESNAR vs OVEREEM thread

[gabe]

I want to hear all of your thoughts on these two guys going into this fight.

Calc, with your experience as a personal trainer, I'm interested to hear what you'll have to say about these fighters conditions, especially after Brock's surgery and Overeem supposedly having been on steroids and is now off... You'll probably have a lot more to say after seeing them at the weigh-ins, but what are your thoughts, so far?

I am personally rooting for Brock but would be too afraid to make a big play on him. I can't see him going five rounds.

[Lick496]

I am a huge Overeem fan (And K-1 fan in general), and really want him to win this fight. However, I do not think his odds are good enough to bet on right now. Also I think he will be tentative to get too crazy with his striking in fear of Brocks takedowns (obvious).

Brock being off for this long though.... I cant see much value in either side. Perhaps a prop is in order.

I will be in Vegas for this fight

[FindTheLock]

I think overeem will win because brock has one foot in the grave at this point. That disease he keeps getting is very serious and I just don't think brock will ever get back to 100 percent. Overeem is over rated and Brock could catch him with his wrestling even being less than 100 percent, so I don't think the edge is good enough to bet on this fight without guessing and getting lucky.

[TheCalculator]

I'm fading Overeem here for a few reasons (that aren't physical -- I'll get to those in a sec).

1. His dismissal of his team and getting rid of coaches. That's a FATAL MISTAKE almost every time for a fighter.

2. He's obviously going to be distracted here from all the press, rumors, etc...

Is Overeem going to be OFF the sauce come fight time? It's hard to say.

Here's the facts about drug testing and steroids.

All they need to do is change the molecular structure of the steroid a little bit and it won't be detected. A friend of mine is an Olympic strength coach and he told me that most athletes have a chemist do this for them.

Is Overeem that smart? I don't know.

His physique will say a lot at the weigh ins.

If he's OFF the gear... it will be another BIG reason to fade him.

He'll have a very hard time dealing with Brock's bull rush.

Overeem is obviously still very dangerous.

Brock's supposedly been training with Pat Berry on his striking. Is he comfortable (not scared) getting hit yet? Hard to say.

[gabe]

I'm fading Overeem here for a few reasons (that aren't physical -- I'll get to those in a sec).

1. His dismissal of his team and getting rid of coaches. That's a FATAL MISTAKE almost every time for a fighter.

Overeem is obviously still very dangerous.

Brock's supposedly been training with Pat Berry on his striking. Is he comfortable (not scared) getting hit yet? Hard to say.

I am rooting for Brock/Fading Overeem for the same exact reason. When I read the Bas Rutten interview, I turned completely against Overeem.

Brock's chin and poor gas tank are my main concerns. I can't see him wrestling for 5 rounds, he would need to ground and pound and submit.

I think overeem will win because brock has one foot in the grave at this point. That disease he keeps getting is very serious and I just don't think brock will ever get back to 100 percent. Overeem is over rated and Brock could catch him with his wrestling even being less than 100 percent, so I don't think the edge is good enough to bet on this fight without guessing and getting lucky.

I agree, betting-wise, there is no smart bet here, unless you can see something most people can't. I think this is a matter of betting on who I'm personally hoping wins...and then REALLY hoping that they do! lol

I am a huge Overeem fan (And K-1 fan in general), and really want him to win this fight. However, I do not think his odds are good enough to bet on right now. Also I think he will be tentative to get too crazy with his striking in fear of Brocks takedowns (obvious).

Brock being off for this long though.... I cant see much value in either side. Perhaps a prop is in order.

I will be in Vegas for this fight

Yeah, I agree... Like I said in this post, it's not smart to bet either side. Overeem is likely to get the KO, so that would be the SMARTER of the bets, but if you like Brock and want Overeem beat, Brock isn't a bad play. I could see him grounding and pounding it out or getting a submission. I could easily see him taking Overeem down and submitting him. What I don't see is him wrestling for five rounds. If he doesn't win by round 4, he's gonna get knocked out... So the best bet would be a prop bet on the fight ending within the distance, because there is NO WAY it goes 5 rounds. NO WAY.

Cool. I was planning on going, but decided to go during Superbowl weekend, which is also on my birthday. Diaz vs Condit + Superbowl + My birthday -- Should be great!

[bjpenn85]

The fight may go five rounds if both fighters are not capable to finish, because of the lack of cardio. im willing to bet against this statement tho.

[gabe]

The fight may go five rounds if both fighters are not capable to finish, because of the lack of cardio. im willing to bet against this statement tho.

Brock certainly won't have the power to finish it in the later rounds, but Overeem would likely get on Brock's gassed out body and just punch away til the ref stops it. Don't think Brock can handle it the way Hendo did from Shogun.

[Educ8d Degener8]

The fight may go five rounds if both fighters are not capable to finish, because of the lack of cardio. im willing to bet against this statement tho.

Don't overthink this one... ;p

Sh*t ain't going the distance, and that prop is priced accordingly at -1050... in accordance with previous Lesnar fights against other juggernauts.


edit: also, on a side note for those capping to this level of detail -- Yamasaki will be ref'ing this bout, and Patricia Morse-Jarman, Glenn Trowbridge and Doug Crosby will be judging. (Not that the judges will matter here)

source: http://mmajunkie.com/news/26524/yama...vs-jardine.mma

[Vaughany]

Don't overthink this one... ;p

Sh*t ain't going the distance, and that prop is priced accordingly at -1050... in accordance with previous Lesnar fights against other juggernauts.


edit: also, on a side note for those capping to this level of detail -- Yamasaki will be ref'ing this bout, and Patricia Morse-Jarman, Glenn Trowbridge and Doug Crosby will be judging. (Not that the judges will matter here)

source: http://mmajunkie.com/news/26524/yama...vs-jardine.mma

yeah wished I'd put more parlays on when it was at -600

[BIGDAY]

I think the fight ends in the first two rounds. Price should be a little better. Probably a first round stoppage, but we could see a fight like Carwin/Lesnar imo. I look for Lesnar to take him down and keep him there until Overeem makes a mistake. It was a while ago, but Lesnar was able to advance easily in the ground game when he gets his oppenents on the ground. What worries me about Lesnar is the Diverticulitis. Condition has to be nasty when flairs up. Lesnar's motivation also worries me. Ever sense these flare ups, we've seen a more humble Lesnar. Yet if motivated correctly, might be unstopable. Odds are about right strait up imo. Hope the lines moves one way or another closer to fight day.

[sirchadwick1]

Wow, Fight Doesn't go the distance is -1050 now? I was going to put some serious money on it at -450 at 5d. Didn't think it would shift so fast! Doh! Maybe we can get a fight doesn't go past the 1st prop...

[TheCalculator]

I think the fight ends in the first two rounds..

Yes -- I think probably the smartest bet is to bet on BOTH GUYS in the 1st (and maybe the 2nd).

[gabe]

If this becomes a ground fight, I could see Overeem lasting til later rounds... I could see this go to the 4th round, though not likely. I would bet it ends within the distance, but wouldn't touch first two rounds. Probably 70% it ends in the first two rounds, but I still wouldn't risk it unless the line was great

[Vaughany]

Issue 1 - Alistair left the United States for Holland to take care of his ill mother on November 17, the same day that the commission contacted him to request a urine test be taken.
Issue 2 - Overeem did not respond to the commission request (again, sent on the 17th) until a follow-up made on the 21st. The initial request said that they expected to be contacted back within two days.
Issue 3 - Overeem took a test on the 23rd, but took a blood test at his private doctor rather than a supervised urine test at a testing facility.
Issue 4 - Once Overeem was informed that they needed a supervised urine test, not blood, he once again went back to his personal doctor on December 7.

[NunyaBidness]

Yes -- I think probably the smartest bet is to bet on BOTH GUYS in the 1st (and maybe the 2nd).

Make sure you use your calculator when doing complicated hedges like this, you may get lines like:

Overeem in rd 1 +250
Overeem in rd 2 +350
Lesnar in rd 1 +350
Lesnar in rd 2 +400

And they may all look good to you, but run the math and realize you're actually betting Fight doesn't complete 2nd round at -1300.

[proposition joe]

Locked in Lesnar @ plus 145 a week ago. 141 is built for dogs IMO. Lesnar, Diaz, and a prelim or two for me.

[Kaladarus]

Locked in Lesnar @ plus 145 a week ago. 141 is built for dogs IMO. Lesnar, Diaz, and a prelim or two for me.

I'm playing both those dogs also. Really like these plays.

[sideloaded]

Lesnar has abused steroids way more than the reem.

[BIGDAY]

Lesnar has abused steroids way more than the reem.

Really?

[TheCalculator]

Lesnar has abused steroids way more than the reem.

No doubt Lesnar was on roids in the WWE. Not sure how much he's been using since he's in the UFC. He's lost about 20 to 40 lbs of muscle mass and added 10-15 lbs of fat since WWE.

On the other hand Overeem has been using them VERY RECENTLY.

[BIGDAY]

Agreed. I doubt he's been using post WWE imo.

No doubt Lesnar was on roids in the WWE. Not sure how much he's been using since he's in the UFC. He's lost about 20 to 40 lbs of muscle mass and added 10-15 lbs of fat since WWE.

On the other hand Overeem has been using them VERY RECENTLY.

[gabe]

Imagine if the Ultimate Warrior went into MMA in his prime lol

[Vaughany]

Lesnar should do what Jones has done against Rampage and Machida and come out hovering with a hand to the mat then shoot for takedown!

[TheCalculator]

Imagine if the Ultimate Warrior went into MMA in his prime lol

Here's what Warrior has been up to: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7BZd...layer_embedded

[Lick496]

anyone else notice the lines shifting the last couple days?

[gabe]

Lesnar should do what Jones has done against Rampage and Machida and come out hovering with a hand to the mat then shoot for takedown!

hahaha he'd look like a big gorilla... mighty joe lesnar

Here's what Warrior has been up to: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7BZd...layer_embedded

haha damn-- i watched his hour-long video revealing hulk hogan secrets and shit- crazy stuff

anyone else notice the lines shifting the last couple days?

not for me. lesnar has been +130 for a while.

[proposition joe]

anyone else notice the lines shifting the last couple days?

down from 145 to 130 on my book

[Lick496]

I've seen Lesnar from 160-120

[The HOFF]

Lesnar should do what Jones has done against Rampage and Machida and come out hovering with a hand to the mat then shoot for takedown!

I was just thinking the same thing. This is actually a smart strategy.

[gabe]

I was just thinking the same thing. This is actually a smart strategy.

He can't defend his chin that well in that position. Jones could defend himself well, quickly move out of the way, I don't think Lesnar could. It might be easy to clock him if he approaches the fight that wsy. But if he's smart about it, it COULD be an advantageous strategy.

[Vaughany]

He can't defend his chin that well in that position. Jones could defend himself well, quickly move out of the way, I don't think Lesnar could. It might be easy to clock him if he approaches the fight that wsy. But if he's smart about it, it COULD be an advantageous strategy.

I thought that that was the whole point of Jones doing it though Gabe, if Lesnar has his hand touching the floor then Overeem isn't allowed to strike to the face

[gabe]

I thought that that was the whole point of Jones doing it though Gabe, if Lesnar has his hand touching the floor then Overeem isn't allowed to strike to the face

Oh, I didn't know that rule. I just thought you can't hit if the knee is down.

I assumed Jones was doing it to get an easier takedown

[sirchadwick1]

It's a cheesy rule... but Jones is a very smart fighter and as soon as I saw his hand on the ground I knew exactly what he was doing. My friends were asking why he was doing that whole Bloodsport monkey style thing and it immediately hit me lol. He was just exploiting the rules to avoid a strike and possibly set up a takedown. Wonder if we'll see other fighters doing the same. I have to say, I always feel very comfy with my juice on Bones.

[Lick496]

avoid a strike? You only cant kick them if im not mistaken?

[sirchadwick1]

avoid a strike? You only cant kick them if im not mistaken?

Correct, you can't knee or kick to the head. And well... Lyoto just happens to be very good at that. Bones was trying to bait him.