UFC 136 Bets

**gabe** · 10-06-11, 11:22 AM

You are risking too much on Beltran. I personally believe he is going to lose, but if I thought he was going to win, I wouldn't risk as much. Rather go more on Maynard or Stephens.

**proposition joe** · 10-06-11, 11:36 AM

I am inclined to agree with you there gabe.

In order to mitigate that high risk that I've taken (I see Beltran/Miocic as closer to 50/50; Miocic appears to be a brawler which will play into Beltran's comfort zone; not sure if either one has an edge in power so it really could come down to experience and knowing how to play the points system, something Beltran should be familiar with by now), I could up my bet on one of my other dogs OR bet more on Phan. I'm leaning towards Phan as at -215 he is a very affordable favorite, in my opinion.

Assuming I'm going to make one more play, my two options are to up the Phan bet by $100 or to add another $50 to Stephens or Maynard. I'm much more certain about a Phan win than I am about Maynard and Stephens, whom I wagered on because of what I view as missapropriated lines rather than certainty that they will win.

BTW, I am unable to do parlays and props with the book that I am using.

**illmatick** · 10-06-11, 11:41 AM

Looks good, I'd make the same bets if forced to make a play on each one of those fights. Aldo is probably the only bet I would avoid there.

Gabe, shutup.

**gabe** · 10-06-11, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by proposition joe

I am inclined to agree with you there gabe.

In order to mitigate that high risk that I've taken (I see Beltran/Miocic as closer to 50/50; Miocic appears to be a brawler which will play into Beltran's comfort zone; not sure if either one has an edge in power so it really could come down to experience and knowing how to play the points system, something Beltran should be familiar with by now), I could up my bet on one of my other dogs OR bet more on Phan. I'm leaning towards Phan as at -215 he is a very affordable favorite, in my opinion.

Assuming I'm going to make one more play, my two options are to up the Phan bet by $100 or to add another $50 to Stephens or Maynard. I'm much more certain about a Phan win than I am about Maynard and Stephens, whom I wagered on because of what I view as missapropriated lines rather than certainty that they will win.

BTW, I am unable to do parlays and props with the book that I am using.

I have Nam picked to win, too, but you can't count out Leonard Garcia, especially since he lost last time and still took the decision.

Go either Maynard, Stephens, or Damien Maia.

**gabe** · 10-06-11, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by illmatick

Looks good, I'd make the same bets if forced to make a play on each one of those fights. Aldo is probably the only bet I would avoid there.

Gabe, shutup.

your alias is illmatick... 'nuff said.

**proposition joe** · 10-06-11, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by illmatick

Looks good, I'd make the same bets if forced to make a play on each one of those fights. Aldo is probably the only bet I would avoid there.

Gabe, shutup.

At the current price, I would have avoided Aldo as well, but I felt pretty lucky to lock him in at -275.

**Vaughany** · 10-06-11, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by proposition joe

BTW, I am unable to do parlays and props with the book that I am using.

Quite ironic given ur name!

But welcome to the forum, your picks look okay to me

To say he's a Golden Gloves Champ Miocic striking looks sloppy at times and he keeps his chin up

**illmatick** · 10-06-11, 11:51 AM

yeah, can't argue with the price you paid. I might have something small on Florian if he jumps +320. Just waiting to see how easily Aldo makes weight this time around.

**proposition joe** · 10-06-11, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by gabe

I have Nam picked to win, too, but you can't count out Leonard Garcia, especially since he lost last time and still took the decision.

Go either Maynard, Stephens, or Damien Maia.

I'm staying away from Maia. In fact, I think Santiago would be a good play if I were more adventurous. I see Maia having too much confidence on the feet given the amount of praise he received for his display against Munoz combined with Santiago's glass chin. Santiago still holds the striking advantage over Maia and really should be good enough on the ground to survive a few minutes here and there.

As far as Garcia, I feel that another Garcia-effect SD is a longshot given the publicity and criticism that the first decision received. His power is the only thing that concerns me, but in truth, all evidence of knockout power is simply rumourmill gossip about him hitting harder than the rest of the Jackson boys. I'm very confident about Phan.

Stephens is a possibility but I'm afraid that I "want" him to win more than I actually think that he will. Great bet at +225 but I'm really not sure he has a better chance of winning than Beltran does.

I appreciate all of the feedback guys.

**proposition joe** · 10-06-11, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Quite ironic given ur name!

But welcome to the forum, your picks look okay to me

To say he's a Golden Gloves Champ Miocic striking looks sloppy at times and he keeps his chin up

Lol.

Thanks! I agree with your assessment of Miocic. I almost feel that his similarities to CroCop (shorts, descent) have made people overvalue his striking. We shall see..

**gabe** · 10-06-11, 12:08 PM

"I'm Proposition Joe. Steal from me and I'll kill your whole family." -Prop Joe

This is gonna be an easy win for Maia. Watch.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-06-11, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by gabe

"I'm Proposition Joe. Steal from me and I'll kill your whole family." -Prop Joe

This is gonna be an easy win for Maia. Watch.

Arbing off my Maia bet now.

**Vaughany** · 10-06-11, 01:52 PM

And "Gabe-tarded" =

**bjpenn85** · 10-06-11, 01:53 PM

i would rather play simpson and nam pham together, risk 100 - win 100. instead of risking 315 to win 137. Its very likely that both men win, no need to play them straight imo. GOOD LUCK!

**rocky mattioli** · 10-06-11, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

i would rather play simpson and nam pham together, risk 100 - win 100. instead of risking 315 to win 137. Its very likely that both men win, no need to play them straight imo. GOOD LUCK!

i`ve already done this...i was so disappointed when the original rematch was scratched....i believe the line was -130-ish(i honestly don`t remember exactly,but it was very do-able)...all phan has to do is set a better pace...garcia wins on perception,not reality...he seldom lands those telegraphed shots in spite of throwing them by the dozen....and his defense is a pipe dream....i also sense the accumulation of punishment taking a toll on on him of late..if phan loses here,it`ll be because he didn`t want it bad enough...

also parred phan w/ronnie mann....i have sonnen in several pars(one with guillard,which i hedged with a lauzon sub at +500 and change).....i don`t see sonnen losing here....i believe he grapple-f-cks stann...he seems to be able to get everyone to the ground and i doubt that stann`s submission game is better than silva`s or marquardt`s...if the guy can get and keep silva/marquardt and okami on the ground,i see him doing the same to stann...

keep posting,joe...it seems like we have one more intelligent,thoughtful poster on the site....welcome....

and btw....i`d open a small account at 5 dimes...you won`t be sorry...

**proposition joe** · 10-06-11, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

i would rather play simpson and nam pham together, risk 100 - win 100. instead of risking 315 to win 137. Its very likely that both men win, no need to play them straight imo. GOOD LUCK!

Absolutely. I would have been all over that if my book offered parlays on mma. Unfortunately, my only option is to bet straight on the moneylines. It really takes away a lot of the value in both matchups but oh well.

**proposition joe** · 10-06-11, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

i`ve already done this...i was so disappointed when the original rematch was scratched....i believe the line was -130-ish(i honestly don`t remember exactly,but it was very do-able)...all phan has to do is set a better pace...garcia wins on perception,not reality...he seldom lands those telegraphed shots in spite of throwing them by the dozen....and his defense is a pipe dream....i also sense the accumulation of punishment taking a toll on on him of late..if phan loses here,it`ll be because he didn`t want it bad enough...

also parred phan w/ronnie mann....i have sonnen in several pars(one with guillard,which i hedged with a lauzon sub at +500 and change).....i don`t see sonnen losing here....i believe he grapple-f-cks stann...he seems to be able to get everyone to the ground and i doubt that stann`s submission game is better than silva`s or marquardt`s...if the guy can get and keep silva/marquardt and okami on the ground,i see him doing the same to stann...

keep posting,joe...it seems like we have one more intelligent,thoughtful poster on the site....welcome....

and btw....i`d open a small account at 5 dimes...you won`t be sorry...

I agree about Sonnen for the most part, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Stann come into the fight trying to put Sonnen on his back which could make things interesting.

Thanks! I'll be looking into 5 dimes for sure, probably will set up an account just for parlays and props.

**Vaughany** · 10-06-11, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

I agree about Sonnen for the most part, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Stann come into the fight trying to put Sonnen on his back which could make things interesting.

Thanks! I'll be looking into 5 dimes for sure, probably will set up an account just for parlays and props.

Hmm interesting outlook. I cant remember ever seeing Stann look for a takedown nevermind gain one, he's wears his heart on his sleeve and stands and bangs usually. He is getting more cerebral though the more he trains with Jackson and Winkeljohn

**proposition joe** · 10-06-11, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Hmm interesting outlook. I cant remember ever seeing Stann look for a takedown nevermind gain one, he's wears his heart on his sleeve and stands and bangs usually. He is getting more cerebral though the more he trains with Jackson and Winkeljohn

I don't know that he has. But I remember Greg Jackson being interviewed about why he is so succesful with gameplanning and saying that there are several different themes to dealing with an opponent's strong points. One was to attack the opponent's strengths (Stann vs Leben), another to avoid the advantages (Stann not going to the ground with Santiago), and one of the other ones was the neutralize. I don't think Stann can avoid Sonnen's takedowns or attack off of his back well enough to win, so I wouldn't be surprised if Jackson has him trying to neutralize Chael by taking him down. Afterall, Chael's takedown defense has failed him before.

**gabe** · 10-06-11, 03:19 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Arbing off my Maia bet now.

Go look at all my picks and bet opposite them. Thanks, runyamouth.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-06-11, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Go look at all my picks and bet opposite them. Thanks, runyamouth.

Yeah, that's exactly what I mean when I say I want to book your action.

**gabe** · 10-06-11, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Yeah, that's exactly what I mean when I say I want to book your action.

You don't need to take my money, you can bet opposite my picks and make lots of money off 5dimes and whatever books you use... you will make more money that way than if I were to bet with you... go do it, now... Go bet opposite all my picks.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-06-11, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by gabe

You don't need to take my money, you can bet opposite my picks and make lots of money off 5dimes and whatever books you use... you will make more money that way than if I were to bet with you... go do it, now... Go bet opposite all my picks.

Seriously, you're the biggest moron ever. Betting the opposite of your picks isn't the same as taking someone's action. There is so much you don't get.

If a guy picks 49% at -110 lines, I can't beat him by fading his picks, but I can beat him by taking his action. DUCY?

**gabe** · 10-06-11, 06:54 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Seriously, you're the biggest moron ever. Betting the opposite of your picks isn't the same as taking someone's action. There is so much you don't get.

If a guy picks 49% at -110 lines, I can't beat him by fading his picks, but I can beat him by taking his action. DUCY?

If I say one team is going to win by 3 points or more and cover the spread, and you bet against that team, and my pick tanks, how do you not win?

The more and more of those picks of mine that tank, the more and more you win by betting against me... How do you not make money?

I'm writing everything out in ABC's for you, so you don't get confused. No numbers or percentages to throw you off. Just good ol' common sense.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-06-11, 09:20 PM

Originally posted by gabe

If I say one team is going to win by 3 points or more and cover the spread, and you bet against that team, and my pick tanks, how do you not win?

The more and more of those picks of mine that tank, the more and more you win by betting against me... How do you not make money?

I'm writing everything out in ABC's for you, so you don't get confused. No numbers or percentages to throw you off. Just good ol' common sense.

I am honestly not being a dick here. Reread what I wrote. When you understand it, and why your answer is wrong, you will have figured out something very important. Legitimately trying to help.

**FightFightFight** · 10-06-11, 09:22 PM

True.

**gabe** · 10-07-11, 01:06 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I am honestly not being a dick here. Reread what I wrote. When you understand it, and why your answer is wrong, you will have figured out something very important. Legitimately trying to help.

I asked you a simple question. I did not get an answer.

If my picks are losing, and you're betting against me and are not making money, then you're doing something wrong, pal. I don't need to throw numbers and percentages at you to prove a point, common sense works just fine.

**CollegeOverUnder** · 10-07-11, 01:26 AM

I might put $390 on Tiequan Zhang to win $300

and $100 to win $400 on Joe Lauzon but only because im a big fan of Lauzon

**proposition joe** · 10-07-11, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by CollegeOverUnder

I might put $390 on Tiequan Zhang to win $300

and $100 to win $400 on Joe Lauzon but only because im a big fan of Lauzon

I would be careful putting that much on Zhang. I personally think that Elkins should be as high as a -130 favorite. But then again, this matchup is similar to the Michael Johnson - Paul Sass (there are major differences, I'm just thinking of a recent comparison) matchup that we just saw, and we all know what happened there.

Good luck!!

**proposition joe** · 10-07-11, 10:23 AM

Added

Mike Massenzio Risk 25/ Win 33

I like Cantwell and wouldn't mind losing $25 to see him get a win, BUT I just have a gut feeling that he's done. Probably not a good reason to bet.

**rocky mattioli** · 10-07-11, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

Added

Mike Massenzio Risk 25/ Win 33

I like Cantwell and wouldn't mind losing $25 to see him get a win, BUT I just have a gut feeling that he's done. Probably not a good reason to bet.

always like cantwell`s striking...but he hasn`t evolved and has had all kinds of issues(might be why he hasn`t evolved)....

he`s a tough dude....damned shame....

**proposition joe** · 10-07-11, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by rocky mattioli

always like cantwell`s striking...but he hasn`t evolved and has had all kinds of issues(might be why he hasn`t evolved)....

he`s a tough dude....damned shame....

I like using him on the videogame. Spinning Hook Kicks for the win Hari vs Leko style!!

**Chach** · 10-07-11, 08:31 PM

Miocic will prolly beat Beltran. I've sparred with him. He's more than a brawler. His fights don't last long enough for him to showcase. However, Stipe is too a heavy favorite, I'd stay away from this fight. It's nice to see the kid in the big show. His stable: Strong Style, is no joke, they've been churning out solid guys since the early 90s.

**Vitooch** · 10-07-11, 09:02 PM

I made alot of these bets weeks ago when I was still new to betting but I'm still pretty satisfied with them (I ****** up on Maynard/Edgar, I admit. Should have gone with Edgar by decision and Maynard straight up). I'm expecting to go at least even if not make a decent profit this event.

Next event I'm going to come in with a hell of alot more knowledge of breaking down odds and props, and the proper timing to bet. Thanks to whomever gives or has given me feedback.