UFC 136 Bets

[Vitooch]

Sorry Joe I posted my pics in the wrong thread. I'm also a newbie to this betting thing. Good luck with your picks!

[proposition joe]

Sorry Joe I posted my pics in the wrong thread. I'm also a newbie to this betting thing. Good luck with your picks!

Haha, its all good. I appreciate it. Good luck to you as well.

[proposition joe]

always like cantwell`s striking...but he hasn`t evolved and has had all kinds of issues(might be why he hasn`t evolved)....

he`s a tough dude....damned shame....

I was almost pissed that I won that bet. Cantwell looked sick in the first and I hope he doesn't get cut.

[proposition joe]

I still feel okay about the Beltran and Stephens bets. I thought Lil Heathen won but it was close enough to prove a good buy in at the odds. Miocic didn't impress me whatsoever. I can't wait to see who he fights next and what the lines will be. Should've played Elkins harder.

[proposition joe]

Ended up + $47 on the night.

Just placed a few early bets for 137.

BJ Penn (Risk 260/ Win 200)
Bart Palaszewski (Risk 50/ Win 97)

Waiting on a particular undercard line that I hope to bet heavy...(if the price is good of course)

[MMAbetMASTA]

I might put $390 on Tiequan Zhang to win $300

and $100 to win $400 on Joe Lauzon but only because im a big fan of Lauzon

damn son, you're lucky you made that Jlau bet! Just think if you would have put $390 on elkins like you should have! Either way nice save.

[proposition joe]

Added:

UFC 140
Tito Ortiz (Risk 150/ Win 187)

I think Tito will be favored by fight time.

[Vaughany]

Waiting on a particular undercard line that I hope to bet heavy...(if the price is good of course)

The Truth?!

[proposition joe]

The Truth?!

Not at all. I'll PM you.

[proposition joe]

Added

UFC 140:
Frank Mir (Risk 250/Win 97)

I can only see this line getting more expensive closer to fight time. In my opinion, Mir should be as heavy as -320.

[proposition joe]

Added

UFC 137:
George Roop (Risk 36/Win 100)

This won't be a popular bet but I have my reasons

[Vaughany]

Added

UFC 137:
George Roop (Risk 36/Win 100)

This won't be a popular bet but I have my reasons

I'd of waited a bit, I think it will reach +300 by fight time, especially after the Hioki by Sub prop comes out which Im sure many are waiting for. I couldnt fault a play on Roop at +300, this will be Hioki's first fight in the Octagon afterall and we've seen how other Asian fighters have struggled to adapt. That being said I will be playing Hioki Sub of the Night!

[proposition joe]

I'd of waited a bit, I think it will reach +300 by fight time, especially after the Hioki by Sub prop comes out which Im sure many are waiting for. I couldnt fault a play on Roop at +300, this will be Hioki's first fight in the Octagon afterall and we've seen how other Asian fighters have struggled to adapt. That being said I will be playing Hioki Sub of the Night!

If the line goes up I will play harder. Hioki's striking and takedowns are both very, very elementary and it seems to be harder for these type of fighters to get td's in the octagon than in the rings in which they are used to fighting. Roop has the most valuable tool to counteract a fighter like this: reach. I think Roop picks Hioki apart and possibly even gets the KO.

[proposition joe]

I'd of waited a bit, I think it will reach +300 by fight time, especially after the Hioki by Sub prop comes out which Im sure many are waiting for. I couldnt fault a play on Roop at +300, this will be Hioki's first fight in the Octagon afterall and we've seen how other Asian fighters have struggled to adapt. That being said I will be playing Hioki Sub of the Night!

Also, not saying you're wrong about the money coming in on Hioki, but my book has already shifted to +255.

[proposition joe]

Added

UFC 140
Lil' Nog (Risk 320/Win 200)

Arbed off my Tito bet plus a little more.

[proposition joe]

Added

UFC 139
Martin Kampmann (Risk 50/Win 60)

UFC on Fox 1
Benson Henderson (Risk 330/Win 150)

[Vitooch]

I'm a big fan of your Mir, Roop, Bendo and Lil' Nog picks, but I just don't see how Kampmann wins this fight.

Story should be able to grind a decision with his wrestling. Kampmann is more dangerous on the ground when he's on top. Doesn't exactly have a dynamite guard or anything really offensive from his back, which is where I see him most of the fight.

[v1y]

I'm a big fan of your Mir, Roop, Bendo and Lil' Nog picks, but I just don't see how Kampmann wins this fight.

Story should be able to grind a decision with his wrestling. Kampmann is more dangerous on the ground when he's on top. Doesn't exactly have a dynamite guard or anything really offensive from his back, which is where I see him most of the fight.

Jake shields couldn't control kampmann on the ground, but story can? okie.

[Vaughany]

Has Kampmann ever been controlled on the ground? He has one of the most under-rated grappling games in MMA, ask Jacob Volkmann and P.Thiago.

[proposition joe]

I'm not even sure Story gets this to the ground. I see Story pushing the action up against the cage, like the Alves fight, except Kampmann doing better with his takedown defense and finding a way to catch a guillotine or other type of choke fairly early in the fight. I think Kampmann wins the standup, transitions, as well as ground game.

[Vaughany]

Kampmann has decent trip-takedowns as well that he used to good effect in each round of the Condit fight (and which probably helped earn him the split-decision in that fight). He also took Rivera and McFedries down smartly and choked them out. I wish he'd use them more, especially against a guy like Story who is wild and aggressive.

[Vaughany]

Here is the very entertaining Condit/Kampmann fight if anybody wants to check it out again.. http://mma-geeks.com/2011/07/16/carl...deo-ufc-fn-18/

[rocky mattioli]

Here is the very entertaining Condit/Kampmann fight if anybody wants to check it out again.. http://mma-geeks.com/2011/07/16/carl...deo-ufc-fn-18/

two of my faves....both extremely well rounded..almost always in great fights....unfortunately,one has a lousy fight i.q. and the other has one weakness(getting put on his back) that he can`t seem to correct...

[Vaughany]

two of my faves....both extremely well rounded..almost always in great fights....unfortunately,one has a lousy fight i.q. and the other has one weakness(getting put on his back) that he can`t seem to correct...

ha yeah very true. I remember that was on of the first fights I bet properly on, I had Condit and was pissed after as I thought he clearly won. It's funny because watching it back now though I think Kampmann clearly won!

[rocky mattioli]

ha yeah very true. I remember that was on of the first fights I bet properly on, I had Condit and was pissed after as I thought he clearly won. It's funny because watching it back now though I think Kampmann clearly won!

v..you follow boxing much?...i was looking at cleverly/bellew....great fight...cleverly looks very clever ..sneaky right hands and deceptively quick...seems to be setting down on his punches a little more of late....so,after watching bellew/mckenzie 1,and seeing how bellew was available for the right hand,i was wondering what you thought of bellew itd?....was thinking of parring it with something safe.....

i know bellew has homecourt...but mckenzie looks pretty solid technically.....

[Vaughany]

v..you follow boxing much?...i was looking at cleverly/bellew....great fight...cleverly looks very clever ..sneaky right hands and deceptively quick...seems to be setting down on his punches a little more of late....so,after watching bellew/mckenzie 1,and seeing how bellew was available for the right hand,i was wondering what you thought of bellew itd?....was thinking of parring it with something safe.....

i know bellew has homecourt...but mckenzie looks pretty solid technically.....

Yeah got a risk free arb on it, got Cleverley by TKO/KO at +120 and Not Cleverley by TKO/KO at +125, also got Fight not go distance at -138 and FIght to go distance at +170. I haven't seen much of Bellew but from what I have seen he has the potential to upset Cleverley who wasnt impressive in his last fight. Bellew has a nice reach advantage and some power so it is possible. DeGale is fighting as well, I was in a club with him in Marbella a couple months ago and he was on a massive downer after the Groves upset. Night ended with some DeGale haters from Manchester punching him and knocking his gold-tooth on the floor...was all very entertaining!

[rocky mattioli]

oopsie...i meant nathan itd...sorry... was curious about what you thought about his power...i believe he`ll land that right...maybe quite a bit...

[Vaughany]

oopsie...i meant nathan itd...sorry... was curious about what you thought about his power...i believe he`ll land that right...maybe quite a bit...

ha right makes more sense. A late stoppage is likely, but could also be a decision for Clev as he might be more weary of Bellew and have trouble getting inside. As long as Bellew doesnt win inside distance I'll be happy

[proposition joe]

Added

Bellator 54

Vitor Vianna (Risk 25/Win 62)
Brian Rogers (Risk 45/Win 141)

M-1 Challenge 27

Artur Guseinov (Risk 25/Win 38)
Daniel Madrid (Risk 25/Win 33)
Mikhail Zayats (Risk 25/Win 61)

[proposition joe]

I really just made the M-1 bets to give me a reason to care about the fights.

I do see a lot of value in Brian Rogers though.

[Vaughany]

Underdog machine! Gd luck bruva, I think a couple will hit for sure

[proposition joe]

Underdog machine! Gd luck bruva, I think a couple will hit for sure

Haha. Thanks man. I'm hoping to hit at least one, if not more.

[Vitooch]

Has Kampmann ever been controlled on the ground? He has one of the most under-rated grappling games in MMA, ask Jacob Volkmann and P.Thiago.

But story's style of fighting is different from Volkmann and Thiago's. Volkmann is more of a freestyle wrestler while Story likes to grind fighters against the cage with his superior strength. Story may not be able to keep Kampmann on his back throughout the fight (maybe I should have rephrased my previous post), but I think he will be able to edge out a decision with that grinding clinch style.

[Vaughany]

But story's style of fighting is different from Volkmann and Thiago's. Volkmann is more of a freestyle wrestler while Story likes to grind fighters against the cage with his superior strength. Story may not be able to keep Kampmann on his back throughout the fight (maybe I should have rephrased my previous post), but I think he will be able to edge out a decision with that grinding clinch style.

Yep you are right, he certainly could just grind Kampmann against the cage for 3 rounds. For Kampmann backers (such as me) you're basically counting on Kampmann using the Thiago Alves fight as a "how not to fight against Story" guide and to not let Story just keep pressing him against the cage. Unlike Thiago Alves, the Hitman has a much more aggressive submission game, so I expect him to be looking for guillotines as soon as Story puts his neck down to look for a takedown.

[NunyaBidness]

I think the main reason to bet against Kampmann is he won his last two fights against grapplers and still lost. Story by undeserved decision.