Hello,
I'm a big fan of 130 lb. Humberto Soto, who fights on the undercard of the Manny Pacquiao/David Diaz 135 lb. title bout, Saturday night. They list the over/under round proposition as 10.5 rounds, and I think his 36 year old opponent , Francisco Lorezno will have a tough time making it that far. The starting line was +200 and last I checked, +165. I see good value on anything over +120. The most challenging style for the rugged Soto is an exceptional speedster who can manage to stay away for 12 rounds as Joan Guzman did after trading with Soto in the early rounds. Lorenzo is a short , out hustle you type guy who does a lot of work in close. He does not have the power to hurt Soto and his age is starting to become a factor to no allow him to get on his bicycle for too long. This is a (interim) title fight and provides a stage for the underappreciated Soto to show what he can do.
I tend to bet a % of a running bankroll, anywhere from 1/2 to 7%. Let's start with a hypothetical $5K bankroll and track all picks to see where we end up at the end of the year. I documented a pick here a couple of weeks ago on an under 11.5 round (-125) joke of a line in which I put a very conservative 2.5% on a fight that was over in 2 rounds. So with the $5100 bank roll, I recommend 2% on under 10.5 rounds at +165. GL
I'm a big fan of 130 lb. Humberto Soto, who fights on the undercard of the Manny Pacquiao/David Diaz 135 lb. title bout, Saturday night. They list the over/under round proposition as 10.5 rounds, and I think his 36 year old opponent , Francisco Lorezno will have a tough time making it that far. The starting line was +200 and last I checked, +165. I see good value on anything over +120. The most challenging style for the rugged Soto is an exceptional speedster who can manage to stay away for 12 rounds as Joan Guzman did after trading with Soto in the early rounds. Lorenzo is a short , out hustle you type guy who does a lot of work in close. He does not have the power to hurt Soto and his age is starting to become a factor to no allow him to get on his bicycle for too long. This is a (interim) title fight and provides a stage for the underappreciated Soto to show what he can do.
I tend to bet a % of a running bankroll, anywhere from 1/2 to 7%. Let's start with a hypothetical $5K bankroll and track all picks to see where we end up at the end of the year. I documented a pick here a couple of weeks ago on an under 11.5 round (-125) joke of a line in which I put a very conservative 2.5% on a fight that was over in 2 rounds. So with the $5100 bank roll, I recommend 2% on under 10.5 rounds at +165. GL
) There's a lot of contact with Lorenzo, isn't there? I've seen him a few times, and I don't think he's a runner I'm definitely using Lorenzo's age as a factor. He caught Nate Cambell when he was dead at 130 pounds and that was 3 years ago. Soto goes up and down well, doesn't neglect the body punching which may slow Lorenzo down, but I agree Lorenzo should start feeling the pain in the 2nd half of the fight. Soto will keep his hands moving unlike many of Lorenzo's marginal opponents. I did catch it at +200 and have a pile more on Soto to win when it was reasonably priced. He's still a good parlay partner up to -550.
