More likely to be a bit of banter from Cesar me thinks! Even Daley who isnt the smartest cookie has said that Cesar will tell Diaz to get the fight to the ground and submit him as there's too much at stake in this fight.
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i`m not as keen on melendez as some....more of an alvarez guy...
but,i`m thinking that kawajiri couldn`t beat melendez in japan...now he`s coming to the states to fight for the first time...fighting in a cage.....
many foreign fighters...and fighters from other orrganizations have struggled initially adapting to their new enviroment.......
and they certainly didn`t throw kawa a bone here(which is what i would have done to build him up for bigger money fights down the road)....
he`s fighting a guy that we know can go 5 rounds at a very hard pace....a guy that`s never been stopped...a guy that`s already beaten him on his home court...
a tall order for kawajiri,imo...Comment -
I agree it's a tall order for Kawajiri but that's not what I was addressing in the earlier post.
I'm interested in how he arrived or was able to conclude certain things about the fighters' wrestling skill. He's made some curious observations that I don't necessarily agree with and whatever standard he's using seems really arbitrary. Not that's a horrible sin, everyone here does it to some degree. But I'm reading statements of qualitative nature passed off as if they should be read as quantitative.Comment -
If you look at their respective fighting styles, cage might not be that big of an issue here. Also, you don't need a cage to practice dealing with a hard boundary like a fence, a padded wall can work just as fine.
One issue about fighting in a cage, is the increase in relative size compared to the ring. The rings in Japan, Pride or Dream, have always been 20x20 feet which isn't much room. Where as the UFC or Strikeforce cages have a diameter of 32-36 feet. I've still been trying to figure out the exact size. Increase in size, means an adjustment in your footwork you have take in account for that and cutting off your opponent becomes crucial.
If the cage does become an issue for Kawajiri, specifically he gets takendown and stacked up against it, that says more about the level of his conditioning than anything else. My main issue with Kawajiri, is the level and quality of training he's had for this fight. It's been affected by an earthquake and I know he's gone at least a week straight without training during the month of March for sure. Furthermore, how was the quality of training afterwards? I heard he had to find a new place to train after the earthquake. Jet lag is another concern for me. It sounds like he flew over here on 1st of the month, which gives him little over week to recover which really is barely enough time.
I'm wondering if he's going to make up for this lack of training by some drastic changes to his usual fight strategy.Comment -
I first watched Kawajiri fight against Gomi back in 2005. I watched his last three fights recently. It appears to me that he has a bit of a hesitation in the transitions that was not present in the past. In other words, he was quicker and smoother going from one level to another.
I think his hands are a bit slower, and his overall speed just seems slightly diminished imo.
Think of it this way....do you believe Kawajiri is in his prime? At practically 33? If you do, fine, he has all the speed and athleticism he ever had. If you do not think he is in his physical prime, how is he NOT slower, then?
You just have to watch him in his fights when he was younger, and recent fights, and determine for yourself what you see.
Melendez is 27 and trains in the U.S. In every fight, he visibly (to me, at least) improves all of his skills. I do not think there can be any dispute that Melendez is in his prime.
imo from one fight to the next Melendez's hands look better, his wrestling and scrambles look better, and his confidence improves.
Watch Aoki/Melendez. Aoki looked slow in comparison, he never came within a hundred miles of getting Melendez down. As a matter of fact, I feel comfortable saying it looked as if Melendez was fighting a kid in there.
Yet, Aoki took Kawajiri down without any trouble. Kawajiri was more flat-footed than Melendez was and Aoki easily grabbed a single leg very early in the fight when they were fresh. When Ishida fought Melendez in 2007 it went to decision. The next time they fought it was a one-sided beatdown. Melendez controlled him, took him down, and finished him.
These 2 examples clearly demonstrate 2 things:
1. Melendez's skills are consistently growing, not diminishing.
2. In comparison to a common opponent Melendez has better wrestling, speed, and transitions than Kawajiri.
But decide for yourself. Does it worry you Kawajiri has admitted not training in a cage? It should. Ask Cro Cop if it matters. There are huge differences between a cage and ring, but I trust anyone following MMA in the slightest would know that.
He also has had his training interrupted by the troubles in Japan. He has to deal with many distractions. I am not comfortable with that. A laser-like focus in training makes a difference as opposed to being partially there psychologically.
Kawajiri trains overseas. This is a drastic mistake for obvious reasons, I hardly need to elaborate, right?
And what about the competition differences between fighting in Japan and in the U.S.? There is not a gap there.....it's a damned Grand Canyon. Again, this is obvious.
The only thing against Melendez is his layoff, but at 27 and with Caesar Gracie's camp it will be a far less factor than the above issues against Kawajiri.
I think Kawajiri is going to get his ass thoroughly kicked. However, if you disagree, then you are getting great odds on Crusher.
Good luck with your bets.Comment -
diaz will win no doubtComment -
If you look at the common opponent Aoki then Melendez has the advantage. But Kawajiri/Aoki fight can be misleading. Kawajiri basically got his leg caught off the bat and cold never recover.
Look at Kawajiri/Thompson. Kawajiri took Thompson down at will, and had him mounted i think in every round. Melendez/Thompson 2, Gilbert shot at Josh several times in the early rounds and was unable to get the takedown, the only times he got on top was when he knocked him down and got ontop of him. Melendez stopped the take downs in the later rounds because of the success he had on the feet. Thompson didn't even go for many takedowns in the 2nd fight, even though thats what won him the 1st.
let's not forget Kawajiri is a very strong wrestler. As for the competition difference, there is no question Kawajiri has fought better. In addition to the common opponents Aoki/Thompson, Kawajiri has also fough Alvarez/JZ/Ribeiro/Gomi(2005 version) etc.
All this being aid i still lean to Melendez
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-1000 was a bit of hyperbole, but -270?!?! Thanks Bookmaker!Comment -
I'm taking Beerbohm.
He's a great fighter and did well in his last fight against a guy much bigger than him.
He will definitely leave himself exposed for submissions, but he has the ability to get out of them and win a decision.Comment -
Good post, man.If you look at the common opponent Aoki then Melendez has the advantage. But Kawajiri/Aoki fight can be misleading. Kawajiri basically got his leg caught off the bat and cold never recover.
Look at Kawajiri/Thompson. Kawajiri took Thompson down at will, and had him mounted i think in every round. Melendez/Thompson 2, Gilbert shot at Josh several times in the early rounds and was unable to get the takedown, the only times he got on top was when he knocked him down and got ontop of him. Melendez stopped the take downs in the later rounds because of the success he had on the feet. Thompson didn't even go for many takedowns in the 2nd fight, even though thats what won him the 1st.
let's not forget Kawajiri is a very strong wrestler. As for the competition difference, there is no question Kawajiri has fought better. In addition to the common opponents Aoki/Thompson, Kawajiri has also fough Alvarez/JZ/Ribeiro/Gomi(2005 version) etc.
All this being aid i still lean to Melendez
A few points to consider:
Aoki was quick enough to grab Kawajiri's leg, this is true. Was he quick enough to grab Melendez's leg? Using Aoki's speed as a metric, who was more slow and flat-footed?
I know that both Melendez and Kawajiri both also shared Josh as a common opponent. I purposefully ignored this comparison in my analysis because it's well-known that Josh (he openly discusses this in interviews) has been wracked by many serious injuries in recent years. He has not fully recuperated from them, and yet still fights for the money (hell, it's his job, right?). So, I highly caution you against inferring anything based upon Josh's performances. These injuries could easily lead one to the wrong conclusions.
If you measure over their entire careers, I agree Kawajiri has fought better competition. However, when I consider a fighter's competition, I do not allow myself to go back more than a few years. This sport moves at the speed of light and doing so previously has led me to make errors in my reasioning and I lost money as a result.
I don't make those kind of mistakes anymore. I hope you don't, too. I mean, Kawajiri did fight a prime Gomi back in 2005....yet to me that was so long ago it is totally irrelevant today in 2011. 6 years ago in MMA is equivalent to the Stone Age imo.
The sport has come too far and has evolved way past those times. The fighters have, too.
Thanks for your reply, look forward to future conversations with you.Comment -
Interesting opening lines on Mousasi at a couple books...
You fellas may wanna take a peek. (Not sure if tickets will stick though)Comment -
here`s the first melendez/kawa fight...excellent back and forth...
f`ing commecials...lolComment -
5dimes/sportbet had the lines flipped. Im more curious about bookmaker opening him at -270. Thats crazy.Comment -
If I had caught Mousasi at -270, I would have maxed my bet. Instead, I went w/ a Mousasi + Melendez parlay. 4u to win 3.2u
Mousasi went from -435 to -360 in a few hours. Is something up here?
I see absolutely no value at all in Jardine at +300. Weak.
I also love Beerbohm by 3 rd decision at +320, so put 2u on it.Comment -
I'm hoping for a Mousasi by KO prop bet. I foresee Jardine losing the same way he almost always does: via left hook to the jaw.Comment -
i would like diaz to try on koscheck, fitch, or thiago before even mentioning him in the same sentence as gsp. if he beats even one of those guys then i would give him a match up with gsp.Comment -
Im with you on these plays. I shouldn't have gone against you on Freire-Imada. Ive got an Askren, Hieron, Mousasi, Melendez parlay too.
Just saw a Jardine interview where said hes gonna switch things up. He's gonna be looking to wrestle here. I hope Mousasi fixed up his TD defense.Comment -
That's exactly what gave me pause in betting this fight. Jardine is a big guy and if he decides to fight to Mousassi's weakness (wrestling) then he has a clear path to victory.Comment -
i keep telling you guys bettin faves is not the way to win long termComment -
If you bet the right favorites, how would you lose money? If you bet the right underdogs, how would you lose money?
You lose money because you bet on fighters that do not win. Some favorites have lines that are much lower than they should be. Over time, betting them consistently will prove profitable. Some underdog lines are much higher than they should be. Over time, betting them consistently will prove profitable.
Without further elaboration, I feel your statement is hollow and lacks substance.
With that said, betting huge favorites (+300 or higher) consistently is not the way to go imo as squeezing out profits is very difficult.
So, I disagree with your statement.Comment -
because nothing is 100% so if you keep laying juice you'll lose long termComment -
ps. the smart money will be on jake shields 4-30-11Comment -
ha yeah its not that black and white! Simply stating tht betting on favourites will not make u money is a bit amiss and ignores the concept of "value." Semerzier was a reasonably heavy favourite against Bruce Leroy at -210 to -260 range but tht didnt mean ther wasnt value and shouldnt be played...hence why I put 10 units on him!Comment -
Perfectly put, V.
His statement was vague and inaccurate. Like you point out, it implies that favorites lack betting value. That's just silly, as many favorite lines are quite profitable.
Of course, the best method is to simply find the good bets wherever they are and profit from them. This would probably be a healthy mix of underdogs, coin flips, and favorites.
But to simply say that it's impossible to solely bet favorites and make money is ignorant of the reality that many favorites are profitable bets. In retrospect, how was Jones/Shogun at -180? Or Anderson/Belfort at -260? Those lines were WAY off where they should have been. I could list many other examples just like those, too.
Good luck this weekend, man!Comment -
What?
So, you are saying there are no winners in wagering? Are you drunk?
Believe it or not, some gamblers can beat the book. Why? Because the book reflects the public opinion of the fight, and for some it's not impossible to beat the public. Often, I find lines that are so damn far off from where they should be the juice becomes irrelevant.
You seem to think every line reflects the exact and precise odds of the fight. This is silly and is indicative of a basic ignorance of how lines work and what they really represent.
Your assumptions are very wrong, and it's clear you do not win money at wagering, nor even understand what a line really means.Comment
