Brian Stann +138, good value against Chris Leben?

[Boddhissatva]

Brian Stann is +138 against Chris Leben. Make no mistake Chris Leben is the more accomplished fighter and there is a reason why he's the slight favorite.

He demonstrated in his fights with Aaron Simpson and Akiyami why he's not to be taken lightly by anyone.

Leben loves to mix it up and have it out standing...this is also his weakness. Any fighter with basic boxing skills can fu*k up Leben and his wild striking style.

this may very well be a mistake against Brian Stann who does have heavy hands and won his first 6 fights by KO/TKO.

There is a strong possibility Leben will stand in front of Stann and trade, rather than utilizing his other tools, such as his grappling and BJJ.

What are your thoughts on this fight?

[brooks85]

Leben came out with a quote today that was eerily similar to a quote in a video interview (for the rosholt fight) that had sold me on betting Rosholt over him. In the video interview you could clearly notice the lack of motivation in him and from this quote it seems very similar. But it is just a quote this time, i wish it was a video or full interview so he would have said more. Hopefully he talks some more in the next week.

"I was a little bit surprised. Akiyama gets to go fight Bisping, and I get Brian Stann. So, you know, it was a little bit tough. If he wins it builds him up, and if I win that's four wins in a row for me, and then who knows? Sometimes they'll do things and I don't have a clue why they did them, to be honest with you. Hopefully I go out and I crush Brian Stann and I get in their (UFC's) ear a little more about it, and some things will happen."

http://www.mmamania.com/2010/12/20/1888011/ufc-125-chris-leben-doesnt-under-stann-his-jan-1-match-up

[Vaughany]

Brian Stann is +138 against Chris Leben. Make no mistake Chris Leben is the more accomplished fighter and there is a reason why he's the slight favorite.

He demonstrated in his fights with Aaron Simpson and Akiyami why he's not to be taken lightly by anyone.

Leben loves to mix it up and have it out standing...this is also his weakness. Any fighter with basic boxing skills can fu*k up Leben and his wild striking style.

this may very well be a mistake against Brian Stann who does have heavy hands and won his first 6 fights by KO/TKO.

There is a strong possibility Leben will stand in front of Stann and trade, rather than utilizing his other tools, such as his grappling and BJJ.

What are your thoughts on this fight?

I created a similar thread a couple of weeks ago which has some feedback on so you might wanna check that out Boddhi as it has Hoff's thoughts, Snakeeye's, etc and my own thoughts on the fight. http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...ann-160-a.html

[Vaughany]

Leben came out with a quote today that was eerily similar to a quote in a video interview (for the rosholt fight) that had sold me on betting Rosholt over him. In the video interview you could clearly notice the lack of motivation in him and from this quote it seems very similar. But it is just a quote this time, i wish it was a video or full interview so he would have said more. Hopefully he talks some more in the next week.

"I was a little bit surprised. Akiyama gets to go fight Bisping, and I get Brian Stann. So, you know, it was a little bit tough. If he wins it builds him up, and if I win that's four wins in a row for me, and then who knows? Sometimes they'll do things and I don't have a clue why they did them, to be honest with you. Hopefully I go out and I crush Brian Stann and I get in their (UFC's) ear a little more about it, and some things will happen."


http://www.mmamania.com/2010/12/20/1...jan-1-match-up

Yee this bodes well - with the DUI and the fact that Stann is perceived to be a step down from Simpson and Akiyama I was expecting Leben not to be as motivated as he was going in to his last two fights. Leben was on Ariel Helwani's radio show yesterday so Im gonna listen to that tonight and see what he has to say. Am I right in thinking you'll be making a play on Stann Brooks? Are u waiting to see if his line improves, my thinking is that it will reach at least +175 by fight night

[Mr.Kitty]

On BetFair you can get Stann by decision @ 4.80, thinking about pullin the trigger, hmmm.....

[Vaughany]

On betfair you can get Stann by decision @ 4.80, thinking about pullin the trigger, hmmm.....

Hmm interesting...I've been meaning to sign up to betfair! Surely no other book is gonna offer Stann by dec better than +380?!

[Straight Cash]

Leben is a complete rollercoaster. You never know what you're gonna get with him.

[Mr.Kitty]

Hmm interesting...I've been meaning to sign up to betfair! Surely no other book is gonna offer Stann by dec better than +380?!

I dont think so either, decided to bet it and right after the line jumped to 1.11/-909!?

[Vaughany]

I dont think so either, decided to bet it and right after the line jumped to 1.11/-909!?

Ha shiiit how much did u put on it - 10 grand?!

[Mr.Kitty]

Ha shiiit how much did u put on it - 10 grand?!

no not even close

[Mr.Kitty]

It came back up now, Stann by decision @ 3.1/+210, glad I got it @ 4.83 . It will have time to change again and again before the fight but I think I got a real good odds.

[Vaughany]

It came back up now, Stann by decision @ 3.1/+210, glad I got it @ 4.83 . It will have time to change again and again before the fight but I think I got a real good odds.

Yeah I doubt it will reach +380 again, defo got great odds there. If I did sign up I could lay those odds tho coulnt I as Betfair is betting exchange isnt it?

[Mr.Kitty]

Yeah I doubt it will reach +380 again, defo got great odds there. If I did sign up I could lay those odds tho coulnt I as Betfair is betting exchange isnt it?

Yes it is, betfair takes a commission on your winnings but it has its perks too. You usually get better odds then on normal bookmakers and you cant get restricted for betting to much, as long as your bet gets matched by other players. You can either bet like you normally do on other books, bet on a team/athlete to win or you can choose to lay on the opposite side. When you laying, you are betting on something not to happen. So you can trade for guaranteed profit a lot on Betfair which is nice.

A couple of MMA related things to know about Betfair is that you can not get the opening lines, for example you have already bet on Ryan Bader at nearly +300 but Betfair does not have UFC126 market open until UFC125 is finished.
The only props you can bet on is how a fighter will win. I think they only offer UFC betting, I had to request some lines for WEC 53 so they put them up.

[Vaughany]

Yes it is, betfair takes a commission on your winnings but it has its perks too. You usually get better odds then on normal bookmakers and you cant get restricted for betting to much, as long as your bet gets matched by other players. You can either bet like you normally do on other books, bet on a team/athlete to win or you can choose to lay on the opposite side. When you laying, you are betting on something not to happen. So you can trade for guaranteed profit a lot on Betfair which is nice.

A couple of MMA related things to know about Betfair is that you can not get the opening lines, for example you have already bet on Ryan Bader at nearly +300 but Betfair does not have UFC126 market open until UFC125 is finished.
The only props you can bet on is how a fighter will win. I think they only offer UFC betting, I had to request some lines for WEC 53 so they put them up.

Nice one, cheers for that. So if Stann does take the decision how much percentage will they take in commision?

[Mr.Kitty]

Nice one, cheers for that. So if Stann does take the decision how much percentage will they take in commision?

Here is a link on how its calculated:

http://help.betfair.com/contents/itemId/i65767827/index.en.html

[brooks85]

i honestly dont know what i am going to do yet. If i do bet it will be stann but i just can't take 3 losses on a row betting against leben, that is just unacceptable haha. Im going to check out that radio interview tho.

[bogbat]

I won with Leben on his last three bouts. I'm not sure about this one though. It will probably be Leben or nothing.

[lasker]

I'm on Stann too, but I have to admit I don't like hearing him talk about how they're going to get fight of the night and how he just fights to have fun. Trying to get fight of the night against Leben is often a recipe for getting laid out Might just be talk though. He fought a patient, technical and disciplined fight in his rubber match with Cantwell.

[Vaughany]

I'm on Stann too, but I have to admit I don't like hearing him talk about how they're going to get fight of the night and how he just fights to have fun. Trying to get fight of the night against Leben is often a recipe for getting laid out Might just be talk though. He fought a patient, technical and disciplined fight in his rubber match with Cantwell.

Yes this worried me as well for a minute! But then I find it hard to imagine that Jackson will say "just go out there and have fun", Im sure there will be some sort of strategy which will involve frustrating Leben and not sitting in the pocket...and after all I wouldnt expect Stann to say in the build up previews that he intends to not get drawn in to a brawl and be elusive, he was a Marine Captain (in case u hadnt heard him mention it!) and combine that with working with Jackson there's bound to be some tactical play going on there (hopefully)! Also, Tom Watson is doing a lot of sparring with Stann and he is quite similar to Leben in that he is gung-ho but has less power.

[Eccocide]

If Stann keeps his right hand low and hanging like he did against Cantwell and Massenzio for most of their fights his night won't last very long as he will eat a crippling left hook and say night night lol. His technique isn't much improved from his time in WEC. His footwork has, but his defense and upper body stance is still lacking.

[Jordan23]

This is definitely good value.

[Vaughany]

Leben blog..

http://vimeo.com/18044033

[lasker]

Leben blog.. http://vimeo.com/18044033

thx

[Vaughany]

It came back up now, Stann by decision @ 3.1/+210, glad I got it @ 4.83 . It will have time to change again and again before the fight but I think I got a real good odds.

Just got Stann by decision at +400 on paddypower. Gone down to +333 now.

Just need to get Leben KO of the Night as a hedge now!

[Mr.Kitty]

Just got Stann by decision at +400 on paddypower. Gone down to +333 now.

Just need to get Leben KO of the Night as a hedge now!

Nice! I am also thinking about hedgeing but betfair dont offer KOotN prop so I will take Leben by KO if I can get it @ evens or better.

[Vaughany]

Nice! I am also thinking about hedgeing but betfair dont offer KOotN prop so I will take Leben by KO if I can get it @ evens or better.

Leben by TKO/KO is +200 on Paddy so u should be able to get much better than Evens!

[lasker]

Just got Stann by decision at +400 on paddypower. Gone down to +333 now. Just need to get Leben KO of the Night as a hedge now!

+400? that is a steal, good work.

[clarkd32]

nice bet on Stann....

[Poppa Catfish]

I love the bet on Stann by decision (and will be tailing it for sure), but I'm not sure I'm digging the straddle. I think Leben is well rounded enough to submit or decision Stann as well as KO him.

[Vaughany]

I love the bet on Stann by decision (and will be tailing it for sure), but I'm not sure I'm digging the straddle. I think Leben is well rounded enough to submit or decision Stann as well as KO him.

I agree, Leben could submit or decision Stann for sure. However, Im working on the assumption that Stann is going to be elusive a la Cantwell rubbermatch which will mean he a) wont be initiating takedowns and b) will be moving too much to get taken down by Leben meaning a submission for either fighter would be unlikely. Then again, Leben could catch Stann and then finish Stann on the ground by sub but I think its more likely that Leben would finish him by TKO/KO. With regard to gettin a decision, Leben isnt exactly a high-percentage striker, Im pretty sure Stann will throw more punches and more kicks which will look better in the judges eyes. Once again, that theory could go 's up if Leben catches him with a couple of good shots which Stann survives! However, Im willing to take the chance that Jackson gameplanning, Stann's superior footwork, and superior cardio will be enough for him to take a decision.

[Poppa Catfish]

I was thinking the hurt and then submitted route, I too think Stann's game plan will look pretty much like Bisping's. As for decision, these judges are so flighty, can't pin them down. I could see him pulling a Rampage and getting points for sitting like a statue inside the center of the octagon.

god I hate predicting decisions

[Vaughany]

I was thinking the hurt and then submitted route, I too think Stann's game plan will look pretty much like Bisping's. As for decision, these judges are so flighty, can't pin them down. I could see him pulling a Rampage and getting points for sitting like a statue inside the center of the octagon.

god I hate predicting decisions

ha yeah in most circumstances I'd just take the fight to go to decision just to be safe. But in this case Stann by decision was +400 and the fight to decision was +125 so didnt make sense to me to take the latter option when I think that Stann is more likely to take a decision.

Im not sure Leben has ever submitted anybody after knocking them down though (Dewees maybe?)...but then that doesnt mean its not possible, it's just because most guys have been unconcious or unabel to defend themselves after being knocked down! But ur right, we could well have another Rampage/Machida decision on the cards!

[Vaughany]

Second Leben blog..

http://vimeo.com/18114340

Is it just me or was Leben not doing the 3 station circuit how the coach instructed?!

Not much indication of who he spars with.

[omalley21]

Leben is a dangerous fight. Im picking Leben by KO, he's in shape and in his prime. He's gonna walk through stanns punches. I dont see Leben ever going for a sub after he drops somebody though, he'd rather pound him out. But Stann is a savage too so it may go to decision.

[spargament]

Wow I'm honestly shocked once again that nobody has yet to make the connection with Stann's WEC success and title reign, the merger, and Leben's recent push.