UFC 123: BJ Penn vs Matt Hughes
Anyone else like the underdog value on Matt Hughes?
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34BJ Penn0%16Matt Hughes0%18The poll is expired.
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Mm this one is a toss up to me, but I am considering taking a decision prop. If BJ loses he retires imo.Comment -
I would take Hughes if I had to at +150. I dont foresee Hughes finishing Penn, but then I didnt think he'd be able to finish Almeida either! Hughes as screwed me many times before so I'm reluctant to bet on any fights involving him! However, I'm also leaning to fight to go to decision prop, but it's at -150 on my book currently which doesnt appeal to me much, I tend to only take fight to go to decision props at -120 or better.Comment -
Hughes winning by Decision is at+ 263.Comment -
Great value on hughes in this one!Comment -
i like the dog value on penn. i think anyone who likes penn picks him whatever the odds are. i missed the early early line but i did get penn +105. i see penn winning this. his conditioning has improved over his 155 stint, his boxing is predictable but better than hughes and his takedown defence is still great. edgar's td were a result of movement set up and speed, hughes has neither. i think penn can keep this up all night, and if he rushes hughes like he did edgar he will drop him. if u like hughes the slightest, than those odds are like a gift. this is a pick em fight for me, i don't see the odds value in this one, pick the fighter u see and research winning. i cannot waitComment -
Im thinking about going with Hughes.Its a tough fight too call, but it seems like BJ just doesnt give a **** anymore, and I could see Matt getting some takedowns and wining a decision.Comment -
There's some value on Hughes at over +150, but if Penn comes in this fight and is able to keep the fight standing it could be a short night for Hughes.Comment -
For some reason I have a hard time envisioning anything other than a decision in this one, even though the first two were finished. But it could be a close decision.Comment -
I have Hughes, but mostly because I have been very impressed with his game planning. Penn will be giving up some weight and I don't love Penn for his first fight back at 170. I still think Hughes has under valued BJJ, not saying he will be able to submit Penn, but definatly will help to possibly stay out of Penn's subs. Hughes by dec or Hughes ends the fight in the third is how I see this fight.
Best of luck to everyone! Should be a great fight!Comment -
Hughes have beaten jujitsu fighters like Serra, Almeida and Gracie. Penn is a jujitsu fighter.
Hughes just have trouble against strikers like GSP and rarely loses.
I believe that Hughes will win this fight, the underdog value is great here.Comment -
Everybody under the sun has trouble against GSP, but he sure as hell isn't a striker. And Penn isn't just some fighter that can be easily lumped under the jiu jitsu banner.
This fight is going to be very different from Serra, Almeida, and Gracie as none of them could take down K-1 Hughes, BJ doesn't necessarily have to.Comment -
im leaning towards hughes too!
BUT
theres a video surfacing the web with a very ripped looking BJ, and rumour is he is already down to 165.8
if this is true it means BJ is taking this fight very seriously and im thinking of changing my pick to BJComment -
Down to 165.8? What does he usually walk around at? Can't be much more than that
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hughesComment -
Hughes all day long as the dog here!Comment -
BJ backers, absorb this one and let us know what you think:
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Do you think Jake Rossen knows that they have fought two times previously? Honest question
Other than that very slight omission he does make a few good points, but one of them he doesn't take far enough. BJ shouldn't cut down to 145, he really needs to cut down to bantamweight and challenge Benavidez.
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The first two times, was BJ jumping back and forth between weight classes? Or as seemingly unmotivated as he's been?
Oh and Vaug, Hughes is +150 on Sportsbook, so's ya knows.Comment -
I saw that too. This is not looking good for Penn at 170. At 155 Penn could use his reach and jab to keep distance from a Sean Sherk type of fighter, but I don't see that happening with Hughes. If this goes to the ground and Hughes has 20 pounds on him, Hughes will feel comfortable with his ground game IMO.Comment -
Yeah first fight he moved up from lightweight as well, and the weight difference in this fight will be right around where it was in the first two fights.
BJ's seemingly lack of motivation is the only angle that supports taking Hughes, but that article wasn't about that at all.
BJ is a typical bully, when he is in front of the fight he is intense and loving every minute of it. Once he can't dictate the match, like against GSP or Edgar, he folds his tent and mentally checks out. BJ always looks "unmotivated" when he is losing, because he is but its not the reason why he is losing it is because he is losing.Comment -
BJ is going to destoy Hughes. Hughes can't take him down and he can't strike with him. This is an easy pick. Don't be so reactionary. BJ >Hughes.Comment -
Its like he totally ignored the fact that these 2 have fought already and ignored everything that transpired in the matches.
Hughes couldn't get BJ down in the first fight and when he ended up on the bottom, he had no idea how to deal with BJ. Then came the second fight, where Hughes tried valiantly to get a TD for much of the first and second round. He was finally able to get on top after a couple minutes of holding onto a single leg, only to get swept and end up in an armbar/triangle. How did the weight help Hughes in that situation? Yes Hughes took BJ down in the third, after BJ couldn't move or breathe because of injured ribs. Up to that point he had clearly lost all 3 rounds he had been in the ring with BJ.
So this was back in '06 when Hughes's speed wasn't diminished, where he still was successful at being able to shoot in and takedown opponents, etc. Hughes is slower, his shot is more telegraphed and his standup isnt anywhere near as "substantially improved" as Rossen states. Yes he successfully landed leg kicks on an over-the-hill Renzo Gracie. He arguably lost the fight to Serra and lost the standup battle in that fight. And he was losing in the standup vs. Almeida until he rocked him and was able to capitalize with a submission. He throws almost the same punches, with the same velocity and the same combos as he has most of his career.
Edgar was successful at taking Penn down because of his speed and transitioning and angles in the standup. Hughes doesn't have any any of these things to set up a shot. BJ is going to see them telegraphed from a mile away just like he did in their previous fights. And if ppl think Hughes is going to be able to stand and trade with BJ and win the fight, I think they are sorely mistaken.Comment -
oop, double-postComment -
agreed (though I thought Serra barely won that fight), Hughes has often shown the ability to come back from adversity. Penn, not so much. I expect Penn to win round 1 with superior striking, and then I think whoever wins round 2 will win the fight. I think Hughes will manage to get a takedown at some point in round 2, like he did in the last fight, and to avoid the reversal this time. If it's early enough in the round, he'll go on to win the fight. Somehow I envision this fight having a controversial decision.Comment -
He controlled through wrestling, but did no damage. Serra controlled the standup and IMO won the first and 3rd round. Close fight though and thats why I said "arguably" depending on the perspective. I guess my point was that Serra won the stand-up and his speed and technique are nowhere near BJs level.Comment -
agreed--matts punches seem robotic to me and he throws a lot of hooks that are not nearly as fast as bj is use to seeing. i can easily see bj popping in and out w/ his little cobra jabbing technique and peppering matt throughout until hughes will feel he has to get the takedown. he also looks like he put on some muscle this time for 170 instead of his doughy look when he first fought hughes. my concern is where he is at mentally--if he starts out well i like his chancesComment -
I like Hughes' game planning more than BJ's. BJ got dominated by Edgar twice in the same fashion. Hughes coming off 2 nice wins.Comment -
If anything BJ being 165 will help BJ backers. This means he will be in shape. I don't see how an extra 15 pounds of fat would help him. He should be fighting at 155, but by moving up with not much time to get bigger it's pointless to put on extra weight just to put on extra weight. Yes, Hughes has come off some decent wins, but BJ would have beat any of those opponents had he been there instead of Hughes. By BJ staying at 165 he could potentially be in the best shape of his life and will come to the fight at 100% without having to cut any weight.Comment -
Just as well that I wait until the last minute to bet on anything. Half the books in this town take their goddamn sweet time, and only run half the card.Comment
