Originally posted by urge2kill
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Maybe in the early rounds, lets say round 1 and 2, but Vitor fades pretty quickly after those. Once that happens Silva can perform.Comment -
lock of UFC 126...Silva/Belfort Over 1 Round -300
What do you guys think?Comment -
Why would that be a lock? Belfort's best chance of winning this is probably by TKO in first round.Originally posted by Wiggums5Comment -
it's a lock because Belfort has a 5% chance of winning.Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
Well if think Belfort only has 5% chance of winning than surely Anderson Silva to win at -220 to -260 range would be an even bigger lock, perhaps even the LOCK OF THE CENTURY as his odds should be -1900 in your eyes as he has 95% chance of winning?!Originally posted by Wiggums5Comment -
It the odds were -1900 it wouldn't be worth betting on it now would itOriginally posted by Vaughany
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Originally posted by Wiggums5It the odds were -1900 it wouldn't be worth betting on it now would it
Vaughany. You heard the man.
Let's get ready to rumble!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
Your're right it wouldn't, but that's my point! His odds are like -240 so if you think Anderson has a 95% chance of winning then that (-240) is incredible value and definitely worth betting on!Originally posted by Wiggums5It the odds were -1900 it wouldn't be worth betting on it now would itComment -
word.Originally posted by Vaughany
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anybody else surprised the Ruediger line dropped a nickel?Comment -
lol have you watched Silva's last 5 fights? most overrated fighter in mmaOriginally posted by Wiggums5Comment -
it doesn't really matter to me who wins too be honest...as long as it goes 1 roundOriginally posted by PingPong
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Take Vaughany's advice. If you're that confident in Silva, take him straight up or prop bet him. For a 5% chance of Vitor winning it seems like a poor bet to have that 5% included for an extra price in your bet. Also if he does win it will most likely be in early rounds so even with your handicapping that 5% would be even less and the difference between -240 and -300 is more than 5% anyways.Comment -
man i'm pumped for this fight!Originally posted by The HOFF
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After brushing up on KID and Demetrious footage, I gotta say I'm really lookin' forward to that one.
Plus odds on Demetrious was the way to go (which I didn't nab). Dude has a sick gas tank. Current odds are damn near EV which seems about right to me. If there were props for this, I'd probably straddle Kid by KO/TKO with Demetrious by decision, but alas, those props aren't available...
Though, I gotta admit, I'm rooting for KID. Nice to see him fighting someone his size, er well, Demetrious is a bit smaller, even. And KID fended off the takedowns of "The Baddest Man on the Planet" nicely, so I think Mighty Mouse will have his work cut out for him there. And even though they divorced, I gotta root for a homie who tap'd this:
But with cage jitters for KID, and Demetrious crazy cardio, I'll stay away at EV odds.
GLComment -
I actually lean against the line movement and most cappers as I think KID wins this, but I'm going to sit it out and just enjoy the fight.Comment -
I'm not gonna lie, I am fighting off putting a small wager on KID, because I need an undercard dog pick for this event, and given the line movement, it'd be like picking a dogOriginally posted by Eccocide
(was considering Paul Kelly at his odds of course)Comment -
UFC 126 Plays
Risk / To Win / Wager
2.00u / 0.74u / Ellenberger
0.25u / 1.06u / Rocha by Sub
0.50u / 3.00u / Cerrone v Kelly FoTN
0.25u / 0.81u / Forrest v Rich FoTN
1.00u / 0.66u / Jon Jones, Silva v Belfort not distance
0.50u / 0.38u / Mendes, Ellenberger
0.50u / 1.85u / Mendes via decision, Torres v Banuelos starts Rd 2, Forrest v Rich goes to decision -- will hedge if first two legs hit.
0.13u / 0.78u / Kingsbury, Paul Taylor, Kelly v Cerrone not distance, Ellenberger v Rocha over 1.5 rounds
I'm weighted heavy on Ellenberger. I'm really enamored with plays on him; and hedging with Rocha by sub, as I feel that's the only way he can win.
Was gonna lay money on Rich, but I agree with many that this goes to a decision, and given the judges f*ckeration of scores, and Forrest's notoriety, I'm not gonna lay money on Rich... Will be curious to see if Forrest's size advantage causes serious problems for Rich.
Silva down to -220... keeping a keen eye on that one...Comment -
Wondering if I should go all-in on Paul Taylor against Gabe 'The Colonic' Ruediger.
Although he's got a lot to prove after that beatdown Lauzon put on him.Comment -
I'm in the same boat. I want to play Yamamoto at EV right now, and am trying hard to resist.Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8I'm not gonna lie, I am fighting off putting a small wager on KID, because I need an undercard dog pick for this event, and given the line movement, it'd be like picking a dog
(was considering Paul Kelly at his odds of course)Comment -
Silva at -199 now on Pinnacle
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Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8 If Ellenberger doesn't KO or Rocha doesn't SUB then I'm screwed.
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Me 2! Except a decision for either would be okay for me as well!Originally posted by The HOFF If Ellenberger doesn't KO or Rocha doesn't SUB then I'm screwed.Comment -
Perfect.Originally posted by VaughanySilva at -199 now on PinnacleComment -
Adding
Risk / To Win / Wager
0.13u / 4.38u / Cerrone by KO or TKO (+3500)
Was glaring at this prop earlier, and I remember it being around +1800ish, and I almost played it. Then I just saw the updated odds in Ecco's thread, so I gotta pull the trigger here. True, Cerrone doesn't have a single KO/TKO win under his belt, er, hat; but I figure with his aggressive style, he's due one of these days...Comment -
ha U never know, he might pull of a Dennis Siveresq spinning back kick!Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8Comment -
Can't wait for the main card to start!! BOL on your plays everyone. I think Silva will win the big one.Comment -
First two legs hit. Still think it goes decision, but wanna lock profit.Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8
Middle'ing this with...
0.60u / 0.69u / Forrest v Rich does not go distance
Goes decision: + 1.25u
Inside distance: + 0.19uComment -
7-0 in my mma pool so far... feeling it tonite, so adding...
0.25u to win 3.25u Ellenberger, Silva inside distance, Jones inside distance, Franklin by decisionComment -
Griffin down to Evens on BetUS!
OH GOD WINSLOW is ref for this Ellenberger fight!Comment -
WTF is Ellenberger doing here?Comment -
what is he doing? I don't know, I don't trust these new sites at my workComment -
This is like Yahya vs Mike Brown all over again but 10 times worse!
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Ellenberger by split decision....I'll take that! Yet another judge **** up...gave Rocha all three rounds!
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Sounds like I missed one hell of a fightComment
