UFC 126 silva vs belfort 2/5

[Poppa Catfish]

Unlike Maia, Belfort is too dangerous to let hang around.

Maybe in the early rounds, lets say round 1 and 2, but Vitor fades pretty quickly after those. Once that happens Silva can perform.

[Wiggums5]

lock of UFC 126...Silva/Belfort Over 1 Round -300

What do you guys think?

[Vaughany]

lock of UFC 126...Silva/Belfort Over 1 Round -300

What do you guys think?

Why would that be a lock? Belfort's best chance of winning this is probably by TKO in first round.

[Wiggums5]

Why would that be a lock? Belfort's best chance of winning this is probably by TKO in first round.

it's a lock because Belfort has a 5% chance of winning.

[Vaughany]

it's a lock because Belfort has a 5% chance of winning.

Well if think Belfort only has 5% chance of winning than surely Anderson Silva to win at -220 to -260 range would be an even bigger lock, perhaps even the LOCK OF THE CENTURY as his odds should be -1900 in your eyes as he has 95% chance of winning?!

[Wiggums5]

Well if think Belfort only has 5% chance of winning than surely Anderson Silva to win at -220 to -260 range would be an even bigger lock, perhaps even the LOCK OF THE CENTURY as his odds should be -1900 in your eyes as he has 95% chance of winning?!

It the odds were -1900 it wouldn't be worth betting on it now would it

[ttrace35]

It the odds were -1900 it wouldn't be worth betting on it now would it

Vaughany. You heard the man.
Let's get ready to rumble!!!!!!!!!!!

[Vaughany]

It the odds were -1900 it wouldn't be worth betting on it now would it

Your're right it wouldn't, but that's my point! His odds are like -240 so if you think Anderson has a 95% chance of winning then that (-240) is incredible value and definitely worth betting on!

[Wiggums5]

Your're it wouldn't, but that's my point! His odds are like -240 so if you think Anderson has a 95% chance of winning then that (-240) is incredible value and definitely worth betting on!

word.

[mightyminnow]

anybody else surprised the Ruediger line dropped a nickel?

[PingPong]

it's a lock because Belfort has a 5% chance of winning.

lol have you watched Silva's last 5 fights? most overrated fighter in mma

[Wiggums5]

lol have you watched Silva's last 5 fights? most overrated fighter in mma

it doesn't really matter to me who wins too be honest...as long as it goes 1 round

[Kaladarus]

Take Vaughany's advice. If you're that confident in Silva, take him straight up or prop bet him. For a 5% chance of Vitor winning it seems like a poor bet to have that 5% included for an extra price in your bet. Also if he does win it will most likely be in early rounds so even with your handicapping that 5% would be even less and the difference between -240 and -300 is more than 5% anyways.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

man i'm pumped for this fight!

[Educ8d Degener8]

After brushing up on KID and Demetrious footage, I gotta say I'm really lookin' forward to that one.

Plus odds on Demetrious was the way to go (which I didn't nab). Dude has a sick gas tank. Current odds are damn near EV which seems about right to me. If there were props for this, I'd probably straddle Kid by KO/TKO with Demetrious by decision, but alas, those props aren't available...

Though, I gotta admit, I'm rooting for KID. Nice to see him fighting someone his size, er well, Demetrious is a bit smaller, even. And KID fended off the takedowns of "The Baddest Man on the Planet" nicely, so I think Mighty Mouse will have his work cut out for him there. And even though they divorced, I gotta root for a homie who tap'd this:



But with cage jitters for KID, and Demetrious crazy cardio, I'll stay away at EV odds.

GL

[Eccocide]

I actually lean against the line movement and most cappers as I think KID wins this, but I'm going to sit it out and just enjoy the fight.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I actually lean against the line movement and most cappers as I think KID wins this, but I'm going to sit it out and just enjoy the fight.

I'm not gonna lie, I am fighting off putting a small wager on KID, because I need an undercard dog pick for this event, and given the line movement, it'd be like picking a dog

(was considering Paul Kelly at his odds of course)

[Educ8d Degener8]

UFC 126 Plays

Risk / To Win / Wager

2.00u / 0.74u / Ellenberger
0.25u / 1.06u / Rocha by Sub

0.50u / 3.00u / Cerrone v Kelly FoTN
0.25u / 0.81u / Forrest v Rich FoTN

1.00u / 0.66u / Jon Jones, Silva v Belfort not distance
0.50u / 0.38u / Mendes, Ellenberger
0.50u / 1.85u / Mendes via decision, Torres v Banuelos starts Rd 2, Forrest v Rich goes to decision -- will hedge if first two legs hit.
0.13u / 0.78u / Kingsbury, Paul Taylor, Kelly v Cerrone not distance, Ellenberger v Rocha over 1.5 rounds


I'm weighted heavy on Ellenberger. I'm really enamored with plays on him; and hedging with Rocha by sub, as I feel that's the only way he can win.

Was gonna lay money on Rich, but I agree with many that this goes to a decision, and given the judges f*ckeration of scores, and Forrest's notoriety, I'm not gonna lay money on Rich... Will be curious to see if Forrest's size advantage causes serious problems for Rich.

Silva down to -220... keeping a keen eye on that one...

[spurginobili]

Wondering if I should go all-in on Paul Taylor against Gabe 'The Colonic' Ruediger.

Although he's got a lot to prove after that beatdown Lauzon put on him.

[The HOFF]

I'm not gonna lie, I am fighting off putting a small wager on KID, because I need an undercard dog pick for this event, and given the line movement, it'd be like picking a dog

(was considering Paul Kelly at his odds of course)

I'm in the same boat. I want to play Yamamoto at EV right now, and am trying hard to resist.

[Vaughany]

Silva at -199 now on Pinnacle

[The HOFF]

I'm weighted heavy on Ellenberger. I'm really enamored with plays on him; and hedging with Rocha by sub, as I feel that's the only way he can win.

If Ellenberger doesn't KO or Rocha doesn't SUB then I'm screwed.

[Vaughany]

If Ellenberger doesn't KO or Rocha doesn't SUB then I'm screwed.

Me 2! Except a decision for either would be okay for me as well!

[Kaladarus]

Silva at -199 now on Pinnacle

Perfect.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Adding

Risk / To Win / Wager


0.13u / 4.38u / Cerrone by KO or TKO (+3500)

Was glaring at this prop earlier, and I remember it being around +1800ish, and I almost played it. Then I just saw the updated odds in Ecco's thread, so I gotta pull the trigger here. True, Cerrone doesn't have a single KO/TKO win under his belt, er, hat; but I figure with his aggressive style, he's due one of these days...

[Vaughany]

Adding

Risk / To Win / Wager


0.13u / 4.38u / Cerrone by KO or TKO (+3500)

Was glaring at this prop earlier, and I remember it being around +1800ish, and I almost played it. Then I just saw the updated odds in Ecco's thread, so I gotta pull the trigger here. True, Cerrone doesn't have a single KO/TKO win under his belt, er, hat; but I figure with his aggressive style, he's due one of these days...

ha U never know, he might pull of a Dennis Siveresq spinning back kick!

[hels]

Can't wait for the main card to start!! BOL on your plays everyone. I think Silva will win the big one.

[Educ8d Degener8]

UFC 126 Plays

Risk / To Win / Wager

0.50u / 1.85u / Mendes via decision, Torres v Banuelos starts Rd 2, Forrest v Rich goes to decision -- will hedge if first two legs hit.

First two legs hit. Still think it goes decision, but wanna lock profit.

Middle'ing this with...

0.60u / 0.69u / Forrest v Rich does not go distance

Goes decision: + 1.25u
Inside distance: + 0.19u

[Educ8d Degener8]

7-0 in my mma pool so far... feeling it tonite, so adding...

0.25u to win 3.25u Ellenberger, Silva inside distance, Jones inside distance, Franklin by decision

[Vaughany]

Griffin down to Evens on BetUS!

OH GOD WINSLOW is ref for this Ellenberger fight!

[Vaughany]

WTF is Ellenberger doing here?

[Poppa Catfish]

what is he doing? I don't know, I don't trust these new sites at my work

[Vaughany]

This is like Yahya vs Mike Brown all over again but 10 times worse!

[Vaughany]

Ellenberger by split decision....I'll take that! Yet another judge **** up...gave Rocha all three rounds!

[Poppa Catfish]

Sounds like I missed one hell of a fight