UFC 126 silva vs belfort 2/5

[Vaughany]

lol am i the only one with money on bader?

ha no, me and Ecco also have plays on him! But I also have Jones by decision.

[Straight Cash]

• Middleweight Championship bout: Anderson Silva (c) vs. Vitor Belfort[2]
• Light Heavyweight bout: Forrest Griffin vs. Rich Franklin[6]
• Welterweight bout: Jake Ellenberger vs. Jon Fitch[7]
• Light Heavyweight bout: Jon Jones vs. Ryan Bader[8]

in the works

• Carlos Condit vs. Chris Lytle[5]

great card, really looking forward to jones/bader!

[Vaughany]

For those with Sportbet/5dimes accounts the odds for rest of the card should be out this evening/tonight according to one of their customer service guys. Usually come out on the Tuesday but as it's such a big event they may be out earlier.

[stefan084]

I like the Franklin/Griffen goes to decision so far. Also parlay Anderson with someone-not sure yet

[Educ8d Degener8]

I like the Franklin/Griffen goes to decision so far. Also parlay Anderson with someone-not sure yet

Ellenberger perhaps? Line is down to -300. In 27 fights, he's been sub'd only once and has been in the cage with guys like Pyle and Condit recently. Rocha appears to be a one trick sub pony, so if Jake can utilize his wrestling to dictate the bout (keep it standing or work safely from top position), he should take this one.

DISCLAIMER That being said, there's still some homework left to be done. Namely, to review Jake's posture and control from top position - he worked from Pyle's guard in round 1 of their bout pretty effectively iirc, including having the wits to get out of a kimura; and specifically, I'd like to dig up tape of his sub loss to Delson Heleno in 2007. This in addition to seeing if there's anything Danado has to offer on the feet.

Good Luck

ED

[sundin4prez]

for 126 im going with bader,mendes and because im a pride/jap. mma fanboy kid..... prob. gonna incrase my unit size just fanboy sakes

[The HOFF]

For those with Sportbet/5dimes accounts the odds for rest of the card should be out this evening/tonight according to one of their customer service guys. Usually come out on the Tuesday but as it's such a big event they may be out earlier.

Nice work sir. I would have been looking for odds tomorrow and cussing up a storm when I missed them tonight.

[The HOFF]

Ellenberger perhaps? Line is down to -300. In 27 fights, he's been sub'd only once and has been in the cage with guys like Pyle and Condit recently. Rocha appears to be a one trick sub pony, so if Jake can utilize his wrestling to dictate the bout (keep it standing or work safely from top position), he should take this one.

Ellenberger ITD is only -135. Rocha by submission has dropped a bit but is at +500. I hit both of these when they came out. Large on Ellenberger ITD and a little on Rocha by sub just in case.

Rocha left himself very open to strikes while diving for subs in his last fight with McKray. Ellenberger will punish him if he does that again.

[xelance]

I also have a play on Bader..2 units at +280. I couldnt pass up those odds, even if I am a huge fan of Jones.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Ellenberger ITD is only -135. Rocha by submission has dropped a bit but is at +500. I hit both of these when they came out. Large on Ellenberger ITD and a little on Rocha by sub just in case.

Rocha left himself very open to strikes while diving for subs in his last fight with McKray. Ellenberger will punish him if he does that again.

Good lookin' out Hoff... I'll try to dig up the Heleno footage too; granted it's old footage, and Ellenberger has progressed since then, but will try to scope it out nonetheless.

[Vaughany]

Nice work sir. I would have been looking for odds tomorrow and cussing up a storm when I missed them tonight.

Just tried checking with them again and they have said they cant guarantee that they'll be available tonight! However, they have now got Cerrone/Kelly and Mendes/Omigawa listed (just without the odds)! They'll no doubt release them wen it's about 2am over here in England and I'll be asleep and miss them again!

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

SBR should get back to a contest for this card

[snake11eyes]

SBR should get back to a contest for this card

Yea this would be great or maybe Hoff could run another contest for the next six or so events.

[GunShard]

Belfort could beat Silva.

This is the best card of the year so far.

[Poppa Catfish]

SBR should get back to a contest for this card

Yes.

[The HOFF]

Yea this would be great or maybe Hoff could run another contest for the next six or so events.

I'm willing to do another one, but I won't be able to get it going for this event. I'm going to be on vacation in the Dominican Republic for 2 weeks leaving this Friday. Girlfriend is kind of pissed that I have made it mandatory that we find a bar to watch UFC on Saturday and then the Superbowl the next day. I'm just hoping to find internet down there so I can see the weigh-ins and get some additional bets in.

[LiverShot$$]

I will probably go big on Silva, Belfort has just been too inactive imo and I really like the price. I can't wait for this card.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Re: Ellenberger vs Rocha

All I've been able to find on Rocha is this youtube footage (versus Mengüllüoglu and Kadłubek)...

Rocha's stand-up looks fairly remedial. Minimal head movement, fore-aft and a bit flat footed. Some sloppy kicks which will make for easy takedowns if he tries them on Ellenberger. He did demonstrate double leg takedowns in both fights, but they weren't all that impressive and don't see them being any problem for Ellenberger. Have to anticipate Rocha spending a good amount of time on his back in this one; he's pretty active and subs are his bread & butter, but given Ellenberger avoided subs against both Condit and Pyle, he should be able to stay out of trouble here. Only worry is that Ellenberger gasses a bit as he carries a lot of muscle mass -- Herb Dean was extremely adamant that he work during the Howard fight, so if he gasses, I suppose Danado could steal a sub.

As for Ellenberger, he's pretty much a known commodity, so no need to really cap his skill set. I'm more interested in capping his psyche here. On one hand, you know he'd love a dominant KO/TKO victory so may go balls to the wall; however at the same time, he may not want to get too risky (and open himself up for a sub) and ruin his potential fight with Fitch, which would probably put him a fight or two away from a title shot, so maybe he'd be content to take a wrestling dominant decision... So for me it's trying to choose between Ellenberger (-300) or Ellenberger inside the distance (-135). I'm leaning toward the latter for a straight play; though may include the former as potential parlay material. Potential hedge with Danado by sub (+500).

[lasker]

I don't expect Ellenberger to take Rocha down at all. I suppose he might to score points, but I think he'll play it safe and keep it on the feet. If Ta Danado can't get the fight to the ground, he'll probably be in for a bad night.

[Riv34]

one of the better cards in recent memory...but who knows if it will live up to the hype

[Poppa Catfish]

Speaking of hype, I've seen a grand total of two commercials for this event so far. Fairly interesting.

[MJ_6rings]

I'm on Silva

[Vaughany]

This almost makes me want to become a Jesus lover! I thought for a minute in this that Vitor was going to explain why fighters like himself, Ben Henderson, Hughes, etc... dont acknowledge their hypocrisy, but instead he just uses the rather vague and cliched..."We're all fighters"! Anyway, quite inspirational nonetheless...!

[sirchadwick1]

Silva inside the distance for -130 looks good to me here. Think that will be one of the few plays I make.
Also Bader at +250.

[brooks85]

the undercard lines are out

[Educ8d Degener8]

the undercard lines are out

What book? They're not at 5dimes, and nothing posted on bestfightodds...

[brooks85]

bm and dsi

[Vaughany]

ive been refreshing Bestfightodds for past 3 hours and they didnt update And I asked a customer service operative on bookmaker when the lines would be released about half hour ago and he said tomorro! Not happy missing the Mendes opener!

[brooks85]

ya i asked them yesterday and they told me later this week.

[Vaughany]

ya i asked them yesterday and they told me later this week.

Bastards! How do you catch the openers so often...U got some special alarm thing set?!

[brooks85]

no you gave me the heads up weeks ago when you mentioned something about it, its been awhile

tuesday afternoon EST seems to be the day cris releases their mma lines for UFC events on the following saturday. So ive had my browser up just auto-refreshing all morning.

[Vaughany]

no you gave me the heads up weeks ago

tuesday afternoon EST seems to be the day cris releases their mma lines for UFC events on the following saturday.

ha Oh right...shame I didnt follow my own instinct! I always thought bestfightodds.com were pretty instantaneous so just kept checking tht...but clearly not the case! Going to have to have Sportbet and bookmaker open and keep checking in future.

[brooks85]

Bestfight is a lot better than what it used to be. It takes about 10 or 15 mins to update now but I remember long ago an hour could go by easily before it updated. Back then it basically made the phone alerts worthless but they are good to have now.

[The HOFF]

Bastards! How do you catch the openers so often...U got some special alarm thing set?!

Vaughany, you know that BestFightOdds has an alert email you can sign up for right? You just pick what fight you want odds on and they will email when any odds for that fight are posted.

[Vaughany]

Vaughany, you know that BestFightOdds has an alert email you can sign up for right? You just pick what fight you want odds on and they will email when any odds for that fight are posted.

Yeah I had them all set up, but the problem was bestfightodds didnt register the odds until about 20 minutes after they were released by bookmaker...so the alerts weren't much use as the likes of Brooks had already pounded opening lines 15-20minutes earlier!!