Brock at +130 to win inside the distance

Vaughany · 10-18-10, 06:02 AM

I'll be honest...I have NO IDEA with this fight! My initial inclination is to bet on Lesnar simply due to the size difference but then I'm a big Cain fan and he has far superior striking. Depending on the odds, I actually also think the best bet in value terms may be for it to go to decision as these are two of the toughest guys on the planet, I just cant imagine either of them ever getting knocked out or submitted (obviously Lesnar already has tapped to Mir but Velasquez is not gonna offer a BJJ threat like Mir did!). Im probly gonna stay away from this one and just enjoy the spectacle!

Vrakas · 10-18-10, 06:45 AM

cain should have the speed advantage.i believe that cain will win but this fight could also go the 5 round distance.

zeroprogress2 · 10-18-10, 06:47 AM

really? i'm surprised you guys think this fight is going the distance. I really dont see it lasting 25 minutes. They are too dangerous of fighters IMO.

vassman86 · 10-18-10, 07:45 AM

Cain is a much better striker than Lesnar, and Carwin. I feel that if Cain is able to tag Lesnar with a few punches, he'll find a way to TKO him. You've gotta ask yourself: with the dominance that Lesnar's shown in the HW division, why isn't he a bigger favourite to win? Don't discredit Velasquez, he's actually got a good chance of winning.

BIGDAY · 10-18-10, 11:07 AM

Lesnar wins, and I have him at -125 Love this line.

RollPlayer · 10-18-10, 11:11 AM

I really can't see brock winning by a decision, he will either finish it in the first three rounds or lose to Cain. The later the fight goes, the more advantage that Cain has. I'm probably going to go with Brock inside the distance and Cain straight up. Both are at plus odds and it should hit for a nice straddle

BIGDAY · 10-18-10, 11:39 AM

Originally posted by RollPlayer

I really can't see brock winning by a decision, he will either finish it in the first three rounds or lose to Cain. The later the fight goes, the more advantage that Cain has. I'm probably going to go with Brock inside the distance and Cain straight up. Both are at plus odds and it should hit for a nice straddle

I like that. Good play for sure. The only thing that I'm scared of is that we've never seen Brock late in rounds. I guess besides out wrestling Herring to go the distance. This should be a great fight!

Pabinator · 10-18-10, 03:17 PM

+130 is a good bet, I might have to go with that big

ndntarget · 10-18-10, 03:22 PM

they way brock is fighting lately he is going to finish before the end of 3rd round and i dont see any way it goes 5 rounds.

rocky mattioli · 10-18-10, 05:43 PM

why is velasquez now a great striker?...because he clipped a shopworn nog?....did nog have staph vs velasquez,too?....

tell that to cheick kongo....if they had stayed standing,cain wouldn`t be in this fight...

his stoppages(with the exception of nog),result from his ability to dominate on the ground....can he do that here?...that`s the $64,000 question.... ..i have doubts......

zeroprogress2 · 10-18-10, 06:09 PM

I know this is going to sound funny, but i think brocks cardio is just as good as cains. Why? I watched him in the WWE. hahaha. I'm not saying that wrestling is real, but it is a workout, and I've seen some of his matches where he goes on for days. This is also funny but at wrestlemania one year, he jumped probably 10-15 feet in the air and landed directly on his head, yet didn't get knocked out. Sure its pro wrestling, but the guy is a cardio beast, and I've never seen him get knocked out.

personally, I think that the UFC is making cain out to be a bigger threat than he really is. With the hype shows on weds, the undefeated record, and the mexican pride stuff. I mean sure the guy is undefeated but did he face Carwin, JDS, Mir? He fought kongo and nog [past his prime]. Big deal. Why did he not fight the top 3 contenders? Because the UFC doesn't want him to lose and tarnish his record.

Cain's striking may be superior to brocks, but rocky mattioli is right when he says that kongo would have knocked him out if it was kept standing. I truly feel that cains striking is a bit overrated. Its not like the guy is a knock out artist. And I would take carwin's stand up vs cains anyday. Infact, cains stand up should be really impaired since he will hesitate throwing kicks for the fear of being taken down. He will also have to alter his stance like we saw carwin do.

Cain has been able to beat midlevel competition by controlling them on the ground and throwing a ton of strikes, and i don't buy the idea he can control brock like that.

Shane · 10-18-10, 10:20 PM

It's a shame that Carwin gassed as dramatically as he did because you couldn't really tell how much Brock had left after that beatdown. His takedown in the second was pretty slow and sloppy, at best.

Cain isn't going to get tired. It'll be interesting to see if Brock's cardio can hold up while dealing with a constant barrage.

LearningTree · 10-19-10, 12:35 AM

There are a lot of ways to argue this fight, but I do think it can go to a decision.

jin2daj · 10-19-10, 02:28 PM

brock is too bbig and bad

rockhardfister · 10-19-10, 06:57 PM

There is no way Brock can win this fight. If he takes Cain down, he cant keep him down. If it stays standing he gets peppered until stoppage. Cain is also the best wrestler that Brock has faced (yes better than Carwin). Cardio, speed and standup (all phases) are on cains side. Brock hitting Cain with one of those canned hams is the only way I see Cain going down but we all saw how good Cains chin is against Congo after he was flask knocked out 3x times and immediatley recovered. Brock is in trouble Sat night and im cashing in.

lasker · 10-19-10, 07:12 PM

Originally posted by rockhardfister

There is no way Brock can win this fight. If he takes Cain down, he cant keep him down.

What makes you so sure of this?

snake11eyes · 10-19-10, 07:30 PM

Lol @ Lesnar having no chance to win. Lesnar has a chance and a very good one to beat any heavyweight. I'll even go as far as Lesnar will be the favorite against everyone he fights.

zeroprogress2 · 10-19-10, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by rockhardfister

There is no way Brock can win this fight. If he takes Cain down, he cant keep him down. If it stays standing he gets peppered until stoppage. Cain is also the best wrestler that Brock has faced (yes better than Carwin). Cardio, speed and standup (all phases) are on cains side. Brock hitting Cain with one of those canned hams is the only way I see Cain going down but we all saw how good Cains chin is against Congo after he was flask knocked out 3x times and immediatley recovered. Brock is in trouble Sat night and im cashing in.

lol

jin2daj · 10-19-10, 10:49 PM

honestly, you can argue this in any direction. the truth is that there are gray areas about each fighter's talents, and these gray areas have been untested until this point.

Eccocide · 10-19-10, 11:01 PM

I dunno how anyone at this point can say Brock won't be able to keep Cain down. Has anyone seen how Cain is off his back? How about when a 270lb guy is on top of him with a great base. There are a lot of grey areas in this fight as there many positions and circumstances that these fighters haven't been put in before. Its one thing to make assumptions based on history, its another to just say it. ppl were saying Carwin was going to have the cardio advantage against Lesnar and look how that turned out.

zeroprogress2 · 10-19-10, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by Eccocide

I dunno how anyone at this point can say Brock won't be able to keep Cain down. Has anyone seen how Cain is off his back? How about when a 270lb guy is on top of him with a great base. There are a lot of grey areas in this fight as there many positions and circumstances that these fighters haven't been put in before. Its one thing to make assumptions based on history, its another to just say it. ppl were saying Carwin was going to have the cardio advantage against Lesnar and look how that turned out.

i agree. One of the main reasons I am on brock is because we haven't seen cain off his back. I mean hey who knows maybe he can slap on a mean triangle, but I have no reason to think that he can. haha.

LearningTree · 10-19-10, 11:30 PM

Everyone talks about how fast Cain is for his size, but Brock is freakishly fast for his size as well, and I think people are overlooking that a bit.

lasker · 10-19-10, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by LearningTree

Everyone talks about how fast Cain is for his size, but Brock is freakishly fast for his size as well, and I think people are overlooking that a bit.

I agree. All the advantages that Cain supposedly possesses are not as clear-cut as they may seem. Yes his striking technique is crisper and he has a strong chin, but Brock has more powerful punches and a great chin as well. Yes Cain has great cardio, but almost everybody just assumes that Brock will have cardio problems if pushed to later rounds, but this remains an assumption that may be false, given his athletic background. Cain is supposedly faster, but Brock is very fast as well, especially when he's shooting for takedowns. Cain is one of the hardest workers in the gym in all of MMA? Brock is not far behind.

Velasquez has been bringing in big wrestlers to help him prepare -- very good, but I doubt anyone can effectively mimic a Brock Lesnar. Lesnar's is a freak athlete and I don't think there are others his size who can move as quickly as he does or who impose their strength as well as he does.

On the plus side for Brock, wrestling ability and size are clearly in his favor; he should outweigh Cain by 30-40 pounds on Saturday night.

All told, I think this is a fantastic, epic match but I think Lesnar should be favored by a little bit more than the current line.

rockhardfister · 10-20-10, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by lasker

What makes you so sure of this?

Like I said...its just the way I see it...who knows for certain? I've seen every fight each one of these fighters has participated in and I really think that if these two fought 10x that Cain would win 7 or 8. To me this is the worst possible matup for Brock in the UFC. Like I said...Speed, stamina, standup, great chin and ability to neutralize Brocks shots are the key. I actually think that Mir has a better chance of beating Cain because he has evolved into a better striker with proven KO power...something that Cain probably wouldnt respect and wind up getting tagged, not to mention Mir's size and Jitz. Brock has size and speed and Freakish athletic ability but he cannot strike with Cain. What Brock did to finish Mir and Randy was brutal but I just dont see this happening in this fight. Randy is old slow and undersized and Mir has poor wrestling. Cain has it all to include the cardio.I've already put my money where my mouth is today at +120 so im not gonna sit here and argue with you folks. May the best man win. Cheers to all and GL.

By the way Martin Kampmann has a very good shot at beating Jake Shields despite what the majority think here.

Sure thing: Mark Hammil will beat Tito

Shane · 10-20-10, 06:03 PM

I disagree, but completely respect your points. Cain seemingly has more tools than Brock, but once it hits the mat I have a hard time not seeing Brock controlling from the top. Either way, this fight is going to be epic.

Oh, for another sure thing - Jon Madsen will lay all over Yvel for fifteen minutes.

Kaladarus · 10-20-10, 06:16 PM

Brock keeping Cain down is a grey area, but Brock's wrestling hasn't really impressed me. He barely held Heath Herring down and had to wait for a decision to win, Couture who is 150 pounds lighter was able to take Lesnar down, it took Lesnar two rounds of LNP to beat a weaker undersized Mir and Carwin was able to stuff Brock's takedowns effortlessly in the first round. Also Carwin and Mir both rocked Lesnar in the limited amount of time the fight was standing. Wrestling experience helps fighters getting up from there back and getting out of bad positions. The threats Lesnar showed in his previous fights are very unlikely to finish someone with the good wrestling and cardio Velasquez has.

Eccocide · 10-20-10, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

Brock keeping Cain down is a grey area, but Brock's wrestling hasn't really impressed me. He barely held Heath Herring down and had to wait for a decision to win, Couture who is 150 pounds lighter was able to take Lesnar down, it took Lesnar two rounds of LNP to beat a weaker undersized Mir and Carwin was able to stuff Brock's takedowns effortlessly in the first round. Also Carwin and Mir both rocked Lesnar in the limited amount of time the fight was standing. Wrestling experience helps fighters getting up from there back and getting out of bad positions. The threats Lesnar showed in his previous fights are very unlikely to finish someone with the good wrestling and cardio Velasquez has.

haha this is good stuff. I guess we watched a bunch of different fights.

He road Herring for fifteen minutes with effortless top and back control and didnt look winded at all by the end of the fight.

Couture never took Lesnar down. He was able to grab Lesnars leg while scrambling to get up when they were both already on the ground after Lesnar took him down. Couture was then able to get Brock sitting for about 2 seconds till Brock spun him off of him and took top control.

LNP stands for lay-and-pray. What I saw vs an undersized (who knew 245lb was small) Frank Mir was pummeling his face to look like ground beef. Frank was barely recognizable after the fight.

Brock only went for one takedown vs Carwin and that was early in the fight. He almost had it but Carwin was smart and had the single underhook and used a wizzer to get back to his feet before Brock could complete it. The other times late after Brock had been beaten up on the ground where they were up against the cage, Lesnar was resting and recovering while havin his arms locked around Carwins waist. He didnt even attempt to go for a takedown until the last 5 seconds of the round where he had Carwin on one leg when the bell rang.

I have no play on this fight so far, but I think some ppl aren't viewing the fight very objectively. Thats JMO anyway.

snake11eyes · 10-20-10, 10:04 PM

Originally posted by rockhardfister

By the way Martin Kampmann has a very good shot at beating Jake Shields despite what the majority think here.

Sure thing: Mark Hammil will beat Tito

We don't agree on much. Shields will hold down Kampmann for three rounds and win the decision. However, we do agree on Matt.

terpkeg · 10-20-10, 10:47 PM

The more I think about this fight, the more I think this will go the full 5. Does anyone know the line history on 5dimes distance prop?

lasker · 10-21-10, 12:15 AM

I would be very surprised if this goes the distance. If Brock can't take Cain down, Cain will keep up a frenetic pace and Brock should wilt by round 3 or later, or otherwise land a knockout punch of his own. If Brock is able to take Cain down and keep him down, or take him down repeatedly, I don't see Cain surviving all five rounds. I'll eat my words if I'm wrong, but these guys are too powerful and dangerous for a 25 minute fight to go the distance.

terpkeg · 10-21-10, 06:50 AM

Originally posted by lasker

I would be very surprised if this goes the distance. If Brock can't take Cain down, Cain will keep up a frenetic pace and Brock should wilt by round 3 or later, or otherwise land a knockout punch of his own. If Brock is able to take Cain down and keep him down, or take him down repeatedly, I don't see Cain surviving all five rounds. I'll eat my words if I'm wrong, but these guys are too powerful and dangerous for a 25 minute fight to go the distance.

There are a lot of unknowns here, but one thing is for sure. Both of these guys have ate some massive shots right on the button and recovered well.

Vaughany · 10-21-10, 08:22 AM

Originally posted by zeroprogress2

I have 30 dollars on brock inside the distance at +130
and 30 dollars on him to win at -150

I strongly believe that brock is going to win this fight, for several reasons already discussed, but I was wondering what you guys thought about these bets in more fundamental terms. Is it +EV, -EV. Etc etc. I'm still learning and willing to take criticism or advice. thanks!

Do you think Brock can/will submit Cain? Surely a TKO/KO is the only likely outcome and you could get this at better than +130

sirchadwick1 · 10-21-10, 09:13 AM

I'm on Brock within the distance at +130. That is a hard line to ignore. 25 min for HW's is a long long time.... can't see it.

rockhardfister · 10-21-10, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by snake11eyes

We don't agree on much. Shields will hold down Kampmann for three rounds and win the decision. However, we do agree on Matt.

Your right this is the most likely course of action and should be easy for Shields to do for 3 rounds. I just feel that Kampmann has good value on the ML and that his striking and Wrestiling are taken for granted. Plus this is Jakes UFC debut...anything can happen. I may have a small play on Kampmann...not sure.