Brock at +130 to win inside the distance

[GoldenYAK]

Not sure if any of you have ever seen an actual hw wrestling match, but they never keep each other down. There is almost never any riding time awarded. Also I would like to point out that ALL the d1 HW wrestling champs of recent years (5 years) have all been considerably smaller then when brock was d1 champ (235-245 ish). Being bigger apparantly doesn't give you as much of a wrestling advantage at that weight as does the increased speed/cardio of being smaller.

Either way it should be interesting to see how all this translates to mma. I have Cain by tko/ko prop bet.

[JC2008]

This is great value. I can't see Valasquez stopping Lesnar.

[rocky mattioli]

i haven`t decided how i`m leaning on velasquez/lesnar yet.....but one thing that`s holding me back is my fairly confident feeling that there is no heavyweight in the ufc(probably all of mma)that will out-wrestle man-mountain lesnar...

there`s gonna have to be much more than wrestling going on to beat him...k.o.`ing him...subbing him...gassing him...

but velasquez will not out-wrestle him....lesnar`s not some big podunk without quicks and experience on the mat...he`s a once in a decade athlete that combines powerand athleticism.... ..i don`t think cain`s strong enough...

and watching him down all that mexican food didn`t add to my confidence....diet is not something to be scoffed at...it`s not just about "making weight"...it`s about preparing your body in the best possible way..

the venue is important....this is almost a homecourt for velasquez...i suspect that there will be many cholos AND gringos cheering velasquez on...

[urge2kill]

The more I think about this fight, the more I think this will go the full 5. Does anyone know the line history on 5dimes distance prop?

Does not go distance was -420 yesterday morning. Went to -700 last night and is sitting at -650 now.

[GoldenYAK]

lol no way in hell this goes the distance.

[Pabinator]

No way it goes 5 rounds

[urge2kill]

Do you think Brock can/will submit Cain? Surely a TKO/KO is the only likely outcome and you could get this at better than +130

5Dimes has Brock by TKO +190. I think it's a much better option than Brock inside the distance at +130.

[jacktheknife]

Prediction guys on lowkick.com are unanimous on Cain to win. They don't even give Shields the benefit of the doubt, but they're shoulder to shoulder and balls to the wall on Cain?

[cooldavid3169]

I have 30 dollars on brock inside the distance at +130
and 30 dollars on him to win at -150

I strongly believe that brock is going to win this fight, for several reasons already discussed, but I was wondering what you guys thought about these bets in more fundamental terms. Is it +EV, -EV. Etc etc. I'm still learning and willing to take criticism or advice. thanks!

If Brock wins he will finish the fight i dont think anyone can last 5 rounds with him beating on you. But if it is an evenly matched fight through the first couple of rounds i think the advantage goes to Cain.

[terpkeg]

Does not go distance was -420 yesterday morning. Went to -700 last night and is sitting at -650 now.

thank you

lol no way in hell this goes the distance.

i took distance +420 today. i think people are underestimating resilance of both men. brock took that uppercut from carwin, some vicious gnp and a massive elbow right on his jaw with his head pressed on the mat and recovered, what appeared to be completely.

velasquez took 3 flush bombs from congo right on the jaw, lost his leg and recovered to dominate.

both guys are great wrestlers. velasquez is known to be a cardio beast in the gym and lesnar has shown nothing to make me think cardio is an issue. he went 3 hard with herring and looked like he was ready for 3 more.

if this enters chamionship rounds, i think there is a great chance that neither man has the power left to finish.

Distance +420 is best play imo.

[rockhardfister]

Cain doesnt get tired...hes a T1000

[jram68]

BROCK!!!!! he is a f.u.c.k.i.n.g beast

[rockhardfister]

Brock just said "hes gonna eat a burito and drink a Corona in support of Cains Mexican heritage, right after he smashes his face in"

I thought Brock was doing good not adding fuel but i guess he doesnt really give a shit. Seriously...this guy is a serious White trash racist asshole. Dont understand the fanbase either. If Brock lived in the 1800, he would be the kind of guy that beat the shit out you, then ****** your wife in front of you while your kids watched. Upon completion, put you all to work on his plantation. Nice guy?

[urge2kill]

I don't really understand how you can be offended by that statement.

[zeroprogress2]

5Dimes has Brock by TKO +190. I think it's a much better option than Brock inside the distance at +130.

I think brock can pull off a sub from a dominant position, he has done is before, and likely has been trying to improve in that area.

[zeroprogress2]

Brock just said "hes gonna eat a burito and drink a Corona in support of Cains Mexican heritage, right after he smashes his face in"

I thought Brock was doing good not adding fuel but i guess he doesnt really give a shit. Seriously...this guy is a serious White trash racist asshole. Dont understand the fanbase either. If Brock lived in the 1800, he would be the kind of guy that beat the shit out you, then ****** your wife in front of you while your kids watched. Upon completion, put you all to work on his plantation. Nice guy?

gross.

[lasker]

I have actually gained a lot of respect for Brock since his fight with Shane Carwin, and I think he conducted himself professionally and courteously in the build-up to this fight. He's also very smart, really a much more intelligent guy than I originally gave him credit for.

[rocky mattioli]

Brock just said "hes gonna eat a burito and drink a Corona in support of Cains Mexican heritage, right after he smashes his face in"

I thought Brock was doing good not adding fuel but i guess he doesnt really give a shit. Seriously...this guy is a serious White trash racist asshole. Dont understand the fanbase either. If Brock lived in the 1800, he would be the kind of guy that beat the shit out you, then ****** your wife in front of you while your kids watched. Upon completion, put you all to work on his plantation. Nice guy?

hyperbolic much?....seriously,man....nobody`s working on anybody`s plantation...lol.....

this is what dana wants...vealsquez playing up the brown pride angle...and lesnar doing his wrassling schtick.....

don`t read too much into it...it`s theater...

[rockhardfister]

It was meant to be funny dude! Who really knows id Brock is a racist. I just "think" he is racist based off of the things that he says, does and the place where he lives.

[rocky mattioli]

It was meant to be funny dude! Who really knows id Brock is a racist. I just "think" he is racist based off of the things that he says, does and the place where he lives.

sorry....

[GoldRush7]

He is going to dismantle cain. Its going to be bad

[Vrakas]

shields will take kampmann down and score points but kampmann is also a very talented fighter.

[matthewsg]

I think Brock wins by submission or g-n-p tko, but I don't see any way this one goes the full 25 minutes.

[lasker]

It was meant to be funny dude! Who really knows id Brock is a racist. I just "think" he is racist based off of the things that he says, does and the place where he lives.

No way Brock's racist against Mexicans. He loves Mariachi!

[rocky mattioli]

No way Brock's racist against Mexicans. He loves Mariachi!

that was actually quite well done....i`d say somewhere between mel brooks and gilbert and sullivan......

[Eccocide]

that was actually quite well done....i`d say somewhere between mel brooks and gilbert and sullivan......

[Little Mac]

Brock Lesnar is a beast in the Octagon. Lookout chico

[westerner]

I'll be honest...I have NO IDEA with this fight! My initial inclination is to bet on Lesnar simply due to the size difference but then I'm a big Cain fan and he has far superior striking. Depending on the odds, I actually also think the best bet in value terms may be for it to go to decision as these are two of the toughest guys on the planet, I just cant imagine either of them ever getting knocked out or submitted (obviously Lesnar already has tapped to Mir but Velasquez is not gonna offer a BJJ threat like Mir did!). Im probly gonna stay away from this one and just enjoy the spectacle!

The most important factor is the reach and physical style of Lesnar as well as his mental game. Cain gets anxious, runs around and then commits too much in every fight. Lesnar takes things as they come and tries to ply his game at whatever position he finds himself in. Also he has far more experience in big fights. The reach is HUGE because Cain's straight punches aren't very good but Brock's are decent and very powerful. Also the reach helps Brock to keep distance as well as get takedown easier.

[westerner]

shields will take kampmann down and score points but kampmann is also a very talented fighter.

According to the tape and logic... Kampmann should abuse Shields and stop him. Good ground game, good takedown defense but even better speed and striking. Kampmann is one of the most underrated fighters in MMA.

[GoldenYAK]

I knew brock wouldn't be able to keep cain down. That's just not how the heavies wrestle.