Jake Shields is -295 over Martin Kampmann

[Boddhissatva]

I know this fight is more than a month away...but this is one occasion where the odds makers got it wrong. Take a look at Martin Kampmann's record...he only has three losses...one against a huge Nate Marquart he made the mistake of standing with...and another against a dynamic striker in Paul Daley....and one back in his younger, inexperienced years.



Martin Kampmann is a very well rounded fighter and has good if not great ground skills and has defeated BJJ black belts before, in Thales Leites.

Jake Shields has only KO/TKO'd three people in his 30 fight career....all no bodies...and I seriously doubt they were from stand up.

What does Shields have that makes him the almost 3 to 1 favorite? What am I missing here?

[Vaughany]

Perceived better BJJ and definitely better wrestling which will most likely lead to a Shields 3 round decision win.

[sundin4prez]

wrestling and bjj thats why..... sheilds crushed henderson and imo henderson is twice the fighter kampman will ever be..... i see no reason NOT to take sheilds here

[RollPlayer]

I agree with sundin. For a fighter with his wrestling skills and a proven track record -295 isn't too steep of a price to pay

[snake11eyes]

Perceived better BJJ and definitely better wrestling which will most likely lead to a Shields 3 round decision win.

Yep couldn't have said it better myself. Shields superior wrestling leads to boring 3 round decision.

[KCJMAC]

Martin Kampmann is a very well rounded fighter and has good if not great ground skills and has defeated BJJ black belts before, in Thales Leites.

Jake Shields has only KO/TKO'd three people in his 30 fight career....all no bodies...and I seriously doubt they were from stand up.

What does Shields have that makes him the almost 3 to 1 favorite? What am I missing here?

Shields hasn't lost in 6 years. He is on a 14 fight winning streak. He has 10 wins by submission, including against such strikers as Robbie Lawlor and Paul Daley.

I'm not saying Shields is a lock. I can see him getting caught by Kampman, but no more than 20% of the time.

[Pratik]

Hey guys new here! I think Kampmann has a somewhat of a chance to win this fight. He's improved as we all saw in his last fight again Paulo Thiago. Its not like hes a bad fighter hes actually got a pretty good standup and an improved ground game of course no where near Shields but still. Well what im sayin is that being a pretty good fighter who's a +250 dog theres always worth a small play; this is mma anything can happen (duffee vs russow).

[illmatick]

We need charib's opinion here, personally I lean Kampmann at the current number

[Vaughany]

We need charib's opinion here, personally I lean Kampmann at the current number

Yes where is the great Charib!? I miss his abuse! I agree, cant see any value in Shields at -300.

[koscheckbaby]

This line is right. Shields will relentlessly pursue the takedown. Kampman has been done well on the ground, but usually he's on top. He'll be underneath Shields, which is one of the worst positions there is in MMA to attempt to win a fight. Had Kampman had KO power, this line might be a little dangerous.

Remember, Paulo Thiago, not known for wrestling, was 2 for 2 on takedown attempts last fight. Kampman isn't stopping Shields

[vassman86]

Shields over Kampmann is good parlay material.

[Straight Cash]

I think Shields will win, but I'm not sure I like him amt those odds.

[jin2daj]

no value on sheilds but no value on kampmnann either.

[Vaughany]

no value on sheilds but no value on kampmnann either.

Agree, value will be in it going to decision if -125 or better IMO

[NOLA42]

def going to a decision

[illmatick]

Yes where is the great Charib!? I miss his abuse! I agree, cant see any value in Shields at -300.

hehe, Charib's on his honeymoon, he'll be back shortly

I hope.

[cooldavid3169]

I know this fight is more than a month away...but this is one occasion where the odds makers got it wrong. Take a look at Martin Kampmann's record...he only has three losses...one against a huge Nate Marquart he made the mistake of standing with...and another against a dynamic striker in Paul Daley....and one back in his younger, inexperienced years.



Martin Kampmann is a very well rounded fighter and has good if not great ground skills and has defeated BJJ black belts before, in Thales Leites.

Jake Shields has only KO/TKO'd three people in his 30 fight career....all no bodies...and I seriously doubt they were from stand up.

What does Shields have that makes him the almost 3 to 1 favorite? What am I missing here?

The fact that Shields handles anyone he has faced lately. He even handled Henderson most of the fight a legit 185-205 pounder although Dan didn't look like his normal self he still took care of business your only as good as your last fight.

[koscheckbaby]

You guys got balls with fights going to decision props. I think of Guida vs Dos Anjos and flukey injuries and can never pull the trigger on "to go to decision" props.

We also don't really know how well Kampman can handle a guy like Shields off his back. Kampman's usually on top imposing his will. Some BJJ guys are much better on top than they are on bottom. Perhaps Shields subs him. With Shields credentials, it's certainly not improbable. There's an unknown element in this fight, Kampman's ability to handle a guy with top control off his back

[Vaughany]

You guys got balls with fights going to decision props. I think of Guida vs Dos Anjos and flukey injuries and can never pull the trigger on "to go to decision" props.

We also don't really know how well Kampman can handle a guy like Shields off his back. Kampman's usually on top imposing his will. Some BJJ guys are much better on top than they are on bottom. Perhaps Shields subs him. With Shields credentials, it's certainly not improbable. There's an unknown element in this fight, Kampman's ability to handle a guy with top control off his back

Ye the Guida vs Dos Anjos factor does make u hesitate, but then the chance of tht happening again are very small! Guida would defintely take the decision 70-80% of the time if they fought another 9 times!

[Vrakas]

shields will win again.he will take the fight down and control it.

[lasker]

I think it's a tough matchup for Kampmann, he doesn't have knockout power and his wrestling and jiu-jitsu are both inferior. Shields by decision seems likely, although a submission win isn't out of the question either.

[KCJMAC]

I'm looking forward to getting Shields at better than -200. His lines are currently improving at every book, and he's already at -226 on Pinnacle, and the casual Shields haters will move the line even more.

[Boddhissatva]

I'm looking forward to getting Shields at better than -200. His lines are currently improving at every book, and he's already at -226 on Pinnacle, and the casual Shields haters will move the line even more.

No one hates Shields...many are just unimpressed by him.

Kampmann is a good fighter. I have Shields winning but the odds make a wager on Kampmann worth a small wager.

[koscheckbaby]

Man, Shields is a better Jon Fitch. There's like no value betting against the guy unless it's GSP and maybe Kos. Those guys dont give a shit about being boring to win. And with their skillset, that makes it incredibly difficult.

[BIGDAY]

Shields wins by dec. I believe Shields can and will take Kampmann down at any point he wishes. He never looks winded and is a stellar athlete. He owned Henderson and has always came out with some of the best game planning I've seen. The value is on Shields in my opinion.

[Boddhissatva]

Kampmann still looks worthy of a wager, especially because of the odds against him. Shields has never really impressed me and Kampmann is well rounded enough to hang in there with him.

[Vaughany]

Im expecting a Shields decision, but will probly just bet on the fight going to decision or each fighter by decision. I cant see either fighter winning by TKO/KO...Shields striking is average and he isnt going to stand and strike with Kampmann. Kampmann is a good striker and technical but never really had KO power and we all saw the shots that Shields took from Hendo in the first two rounds of their fight. Shields should have the edge on the ground but Kampmann has great BJJ as well as he proved in the Volkmann and P.Thiago fights. Kampmann has been one of my bogey fighters who I've not had much luck with in the past so I dont think I'll be able to bring myself to bet against him again - I had Condit to win before, and I was convinced P.Thiago would beat him!

[jacktheknife]

Kampmann still looks worthy of a wager, especially because of the odds against him. Shields has never really impressed me and Kampmann is well rounded enough to hang in there with him.

I know that alot of your more...public endeavors haven't worked out so well. I'm kinda worried that you might be chasing your losses.

[clarkd32]

will be on shields by decision... I don't see him knocking out kampman...

[vassman86]

Shields is an excellent wrestler and he'll school Kampmann over three rounds.

[JuicedUp]

Everyone and their mother is on shields.

[drthunder]

lay and pray 101

[Vaughany]

Rumour around that Shields is battling a back injury which is effecting his camp. Obviously his camp have said that he is at 100% tho...interesting nonetheless...

http://www.mmaresolutions.com/the-fight-fix-on-jake-shields-health-pre-ufc-121-video

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

just re-watched Daley/Shields, and Shields does look lost at times on the feet desperate for a takedown. Kampmann does not have the power of Daley but good on the feet and good submission skills. Shields "lay and pary 101" may still be too strong, and Kampmanns fights vs Condit and P Thiago don't convince me he can stop Shields takedowns

[CaptJames05]

Shields has it in the bag... no contest hahaha