UFC Fight Night 22

[Shagdogy]

What is everyone's thoughts on Efrain v. Oliveira? I see Oliveira getting the sub in this one in the late 2nd, or 3rd round. Feel like there's a lot of value on him somewhere over +200. Thoughts?

[Varker]

wow Palhares is huge, can't believe he's 5'8.

[Vaughany]

What is everyone's thoughts on Efrain v. Oliveira? I see Oliveira getting the sub in this one in the late 2nd, or 3rd round. Feel like there's a lot of value on him somewhere over +200. Thoughts?

Yep im thinking similar situation to the Evan Dunham fight with late sub. Im waiting to see if Paddypower have prop bets available for this event before making final decision, but I will either be putting a straight bet on Oliveira if he is +150 or better; or doing a straddle of Oliveira by sub and Escudero by decision depending on the value. Oliveira has at least equal if not better BJJ then Dunham (especially off his back), and definetly has superior BJJ to all the other fighters Escudero has faced before - Lauzon, Cole Miller and Nover. Furthermore, Oliveira also has better stand-up than all of those fighters. I was expecting Oliveira to be much closer to Evens - apparently he was the favourite at -110 or something when the line first came out? Darren Elkings was Indiana State Champion Wrestler so a decent level and soon as it hit the ground he got caught by Oliveira. Efrain should be able to last longer, and maybe will try and keep it standing on the back of seeing Elkins get subbed so easily and after being submitted himself against Dunham.

[snake11eyes]

From BFO it looks like Oliveira started out at -150. Now he's +155. I wonder why everyone is jumping on Escudero. Dunham made him look average at best.

[Vaughany]

From BFO it looks like Oliveira started out at -150. Now he's +155. I wonder why everyone is jumping on Escudero. Dunham made him look average at best.

I imagine a combination of him being TUF winner, and because of the whole 'always bet on the wrestler' attitude!

[snake11eyes]

I imagine a combination of him being TUF winner, and because of the whole 'always bet on the wrestler' attitude!

Yea good points. I'm going to start leaning towards the wrestlers more. Case in point the other night with Warren.

[Vaughany]

Yea good points. I'm going to start leaning towards the wrestlers more. Case in point the other night with Warren.

Yee thts why I'm considering doing a straddle with Oliveira to win or Oliveira by sub, and Escudero to win by decision.

[NOLA42]

this is gonna be a great card!

[Kaladarus]

We don't know much about Charles Oliveira so it's hard to say. Efrain isn't amazing or anything, but he's built a decent record and has had some good fights in the UFC. I think the line is close to accurate on this one. Vaughany's straddle might be a good play.

[Vaughany]

Did anybody get Escudero at -130 or better as he was at plus odds when it came out? Can make guaranteed profit if so by arbing!

[Vaughany]

Anybody like Jared Hamman over Kingsbury as well? Kingsbury hasnt fought in almost a year so ring rust will be a factor. He never impressed me on TUF, I think he lost both fights he had on there - granted they wer against decent opposition in Bader and Soszynski tho. He also lost to Lawler, thn scraped a split-decision over Al-Hassan. Hamman managed to handle Rodney Wallace who is a better wrestler and stronger dude than Kingsbury IMO.

[Shagdogy]

I was never impressed by Kingsbury either. I'm not sure about Hamman though. I have to watch a fight or two of his, but a win over Wallace is decent. More interested in this fight just because I never thought much of Kingsbury's skills.

[Vaughany]

I was never impressed by Kingsbury either. I'm not sure about Hamman though. I have to watch a fight or two of his, but a win over Wallace is decent. More interested in this fight just because I never thought much of Kingsbury's skills.

Ye problem is Hamann has no defence, leaves him self wide open so if Kingsbury was smart and used technical kickboxing he may be able to connect. I know Kingsbury has been to Thailand training with Swick so his stand up may have improved over last 12 months.

[cooldavid3169]

loving tibau in this spot....

Unless Tibau is having a hard cut like his teammate did. Thiago really dissapointed me so that will be in the back of my mind for awhile.

[illmatick]

Dunham made him look average at best.

Dunham almost lost the first round 10-8, after that though it was all dunham, Efrain's gas tank is the biggest x-factor here

current line seems pretty spot on to me

[sundin4prez]

going with efrain, simply becuase im that guy that will always choose wrestling over BJJ in american mma....

[The HOFF]

Anybody like Jared Hamman over Kingsbury as well?

I do. This is one I'm watching for a line. If this is anywhere around EV I'll be all over Hamman.

[RollPlayer]

How can you not bet on the Brazilian version of the Incredible Hulk!...
http://i40.tinypic.com/b7jf2w.gif

That is quite possibly the most intimidating thing I have ever seen in the UFC

[snake11eyes]

Dunham almost lost the first round 10-8, after that though it was all dunham, Efrain's gas tank is the biggest x-factor here

I just watched the fight again. Efrain had a good first round although I don't think it was close to being a 10-8. I agree with you Escudero gassed in the second and Dunham capitalized for the rest of the fight. I was just wondering why the line moved so much on a guy that I now see has questionable conditioning and got subbed in his last fight.

[bak_ones]

How can you not bet on the Brazilian version of the Incredible Hulk!...
http://i40.tinypic.com/b7jf2w.gif

...

[Shagdogy]

Someone mentioned earlier that Palhares has an uncanny way of just getting it to the mat... I agree. I think his wrestling isn't the most technical, but he's persistent, strong as hell, and pretty solid off the clinch. He's very slick with his transitions to submissions, and he'll drop down to take a leg/heel at any time. Watch his fights in the Fury FC promotion and you'll see two very slick heel-hook subs on high level BJJ black belts. Leg/ankle/heel subs are often a very overlooked part of BJJ and can be very hard to deal with if you have not trained them for long. Marquardt not only needs to keep this fight standing, but he needs to keep a comfortable distance from the clinch as well IMO, especially in the first before they are sweaty and slippery. One the feet, at range, Marquardt undoubtedly has the advantage, but Palhares is no joke anywhere in the clinch and on the ground. The line is currently at +190 for Palhares and that feels just about right. I'll keep an eye on it and would consider him at anything over 200.

[Vaughany]

Has 5 Dimes release props for Marquardt Paul Harris yet? I'm particularly interested in Marquardt by decision as I think that's the only way he wins this.

[Vaughany]

Someone mentioned earlier that Palhares has an uncanny way of just getting it to the mat... I agree. I think his wrestling isn't the most technical, but he's persistent, strong as hell, and pretty solid off the clinch. He's very slick with his transitions to submissions, and he'll drop down to take a leg/heel at any time. Watch his fights in the Fury FC promotion and you'll see two very slick heel-hook subs on high level BJJ black belts. Leg/ankle/heel subs are often a very overlooked part of BJJ and can be very hard to deal with if you have not trained them for long. Marquardt not only needs to keep this fight standing, but he needs to keep a comfortable distance from the clinch as well IMO, especially in the first before they are sweaty and slippery. One the feet, at range, Marquardt undoubtedly has the advantage, but Palhares is no joke anywhere in the clinch and on the ground. The line is currently at +190 for Palhares and that feels just about right. I'll keep an eye on it and would consider him at anything over 200.

Yee I can get Palhares at +200 on Bet365 currently, think Im gonna put a couple of units on by the end of the week. Just waiting to see if Paddypower release prop bets this week, hopefully get Marquadt by decision at +300 or better and do a straddle

[snake11eyes]

Has 5 Dimes release props for Marquardt Paul Harris yet? I'm particularly interested in Marquardt by decision as I think that's the only way he wins this.

To decision +120. Marquardt by decision +175.

[GoldenYAK]

Yep im thinking similar situation to the Evan Dunham fight with late sub. Im waiting to see if Paddypower have prop bets available for this event before making final decision, but I will either be putting a straight bet on Oliveira if he is +150 or better; or doing a straddle of Oliveira by sub and Escudero by decision depending on the value. Oliveira has at least equal if not better BJJ then Dunham (especially off his back), and definetly has superior BJJ to all the other fighters Escudero has faced before - Lauzon, Cole Miller and Nover. Furthermore, Oliveira also has better stand-up than all of those fighters. I was expecting Oliveira to be much closer to Evens - apparently he was the favourite at -110 or something when the line first came out? Darren Elkings was Indiana State Champion Wrestler so a decent level and soon as it hit the ground he got caught by Oliveira. Efrain should be able to last longer, and maybe will try and keep it standing on the back of seeing Elkins get subbed so easily and after being submitted himself against Dunham.

Efrain has better wrestling then elkins and he won't be so dumb as to go to the mat with oliviera. Efrain's gameplan should be a sprawl and brawl. The only way oliveira wins is by sub but he has to first get the collegiate wrestler to the ground.

[Shagdogy]

The only way oliveira wins is by sub but he has to first get the collegiate wrestler to the ground.

I agree this is the only way he wins. I know Oliveira is unproven against this competition, but something tells me he has the athleticism and quickness to bring this fight in to his world. I can't point to a number of fights that will support my assumption, but I just have a feeling that Oliveira will surprise many in this fight and make a real name for himself. Now, I wouldn't ever tell anyone to bet based on my "hunch," but for +175 or better I may do it.

[rocky mattioli]

I don't like Nate much, but he's a better fighter than Palhares. I will just watch and enjoy the fight either way, but I expect a domination from Nate. Just because Palhares picked up and slammed Hendo don't mean he has great takedowns or great wrestling. Hendo's MMA wrestling has never been that great and the rest of the fight was Hendo sprawling and beating the crap out of Palhares. Marquardt is capable of surviving on the ground with Palhares, but standing Nate will beat the crap out of Palhares. I see people been talking about going Palhares by submission or Marquardt by decision. Yes, Palhares has a great chin. But his cardio is poor and Nate's is surprisingly good. Nate could get the late TKO as Palhares is drained and Nate is still going strong.

Guys, remember this, Palhares isn't some God of BJJ. Marquardt beat the crap out of Dean Lister and Thales Leites, who are more proven grapplers than Palhares. Hell, he had no problem being in their guards. Palhares has struggled grappling with Jeremy Horn and Lucio Linhares. While both of them are good grapplers, they aren't Dean Lister or Thales Leites.

The best bet of this card is Gleison Tibau over Jim Miller. Both grapplers with Tibau being bigger, stronger, and a better one. Him being the dog is funny. Tibau does have a history of losing fights he should win, such as the Stevenson and Guillard fights, so don't go too heavy. But Tibau at underdog odds in this matchup is head scratching.

i caught tibau at +175 when it opened and i`m kicking myself in the arse for not going bigger.....arrrrgghh!!

[Educ8d Degener8]

I'm still undecided on a play... although I'm may be falling in love with Palhares +3.5 pts...

But he does have an uncanny way of grappling guys to the mat (his strength helps, just a wee bit me thinks)

[The HOFF]

I'm still undecided on a play... although I'm may be falling in love with Palhares +3.5 pts...

Where do you see this one and do you have a line? I really like this bet.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Where do you see this one and do you have a line? I really like this bet.

It's at 5dimes with a line of -130.

It's a winner as long as Marquardt doesn't finish the fight, or win a decision that includes a 10-8 round... which is why I'm digging it

[Vaughany]

It's at 5dimes with a line of -130.

It's a winner as long as Marquardt doesn't finish the fight, or win a decision that includes a 10-8 round... which is why I'm digging it

Id jump on that, no way I see Marquardt absolutely dominating a round.

[Shagdogy]

I think that may be incorrect. In a points handicap, the TOTAL score of the judges is added up for each fighter. If you add 3.5 to the TOTAL then Palhares would win. For example, if Marquardt wins 30-27 on all three judges scorecards, the TOTAL score would be 90-81 for Marquardt. This bet would not win. Even if Marquardt wins 30-27, 29-28, 29-28, the TOTAL would be 88-83. Plus 3.5 would still not cover. I do not like this bet.

5 dimes has also opened up more props on Oliveira/Escudero. If you were liking Oliveira at +170, then the prop for him to win inside the distance at +318 is an added bonus. I can't see his BJJ style winning a decision against a wrestler, so if you like Oliveira to win, you've gotta take him inside the distance.

[The HOFF]

In a points handicap, the TOTAL score of the judges is added up for each fighter.

This is right. It's the total of all the judges scorecards. Essentially Palhares would have to win one round on all 3 judges scorecards, which I think he can do. If Marquardt wins the fight 29-28 on all scorecards this bet would still win. Marquardt can't finish the fight, win all three rounds, or have a 10-8 round. No one has finished Palhares and I don't see Nate being the first to do that. 10-8 rounds are rare so that shouldn't be a problem either. I think this has value.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Shag and Hoff thanks for correcting my misinterpretation... I'd inquired about those points handicaps elsewhere and thought it sounded too good to be true...

[koscheckbaby]

Anyone know what the line will be on Rafael Natal against Attencio? He might be tired from his long run into the US Open. Plus, I don't think the Octagon has a clay court surface.