UFC Fight Night 22

[The HOFF]

Date: Sep 15, 2010

Location: Austin, Texas
Venue: Frank Erwin Center
Broadcast: Spike TV

MAIN CARD

• Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares
• Efrain Escudero vs. Charles Oliveira
• Jim Miller vs. Gleison Tibau
• Cole Miller vs. Ross Pearson

PRELIMINARY CARD

• John Gunderson vs. Yves Edwards
• Jared Hamman vs. Kyle Kingsbury
• Dave Branch vs. Tomasz Drwal
• Rich Attonito vs. Rafael Natal
• David Mitchell vs. Anthony Waldburger
• Brian Foster vs. Forrest Petz

[The HOFF]

[playa420]

Nate Marquardt -200 looks like a really good bet.Nates done well against bjj guys lately, and he should be able to keep the fight standing and get a KO or just pick Palhares apart and win by decision.

[lasker]

I agree, I like Marquardt at this price.

[illmatick]

disagree, no way I would lay -200 with Nate here

hopefully you guys will drive up the price so I can get a better number on Palhares

[sundin4prez]

loving tibau in this spot....

[Vaughany]

disagree, no way I would lay -200 with Nate here

hopefully you guys will drive up the price so I can get a better number on Palhares

Agree! I think the value is with Paul Harris. I think it's pretty even, Marquadt has stand up advantage but Paul Harris has a great chin so dont see Marquadt TKO or KOing him. Also Marquadt will be at a disadvantage with regard to grappling, obviously in BJJ, but Paul Harris' wrestling is also underated. Main thing here for me is the fact that Marquadt usually has size advantage on other fighters in middleweight division but will not be the case in this one - Harris is HUGE! Considering a small play on him or a straddle of Marquadt by decision and Palhares depending on the odds.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Anyone questioning Toquinho's chin should watch his fight with Dan Henderson...

[illmatick]

I agree with all of that, not only are Pahares's takedowns underated but Nate's takedown defense is also overrated imo

[JuicedUp]

I might take every dog here.

[bak_ones]

be careful with Rousimar Palhares

[Educ8d Degener8]

be careful with Rousimar Palhares

I'm a big Toquinho fan, and I'm still a bit tentative to place a bet at this point.

Toquinho hasn't faced a dynamic striker the caliber of Nate. He did display a solid chin though when he faced Hendo, but Nate brings a wider array of striking to the table; ie, not just a heavy hand.

On the other hand, Rousimar did exhibit nice grappling in that match -- going so far as to slam Hendo at some point iirc. And Nate's TDD did look for sh*t against Sonnen (but who's doesn't against Sonnen?)...

I was all over Palhares in his last bout with Drwal:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/403551-palhares-vs-drwal.html

But still undecided on this one.

Hopefully, will find some time to dig up footage.

BOL

[Vrakas]

nate will win I am going with nate.

[Kaladarus]

I predict.nate the great will prevail he will be very focused on getting the W and so should pearson.

[lasker]

It's easy to question Marquardt's takedown defense based on his fight with Sonnen, but Sonnen is an animal. I don't know who can stop his takedowns in the middleweight division. He took down Okami with ease, not to mention Anderson. Marquardt will have a huge striking advantage in this fight and he's no fish out of water in BJJ, either. If it does go to the ground I think he'll survive long enough to get back to his feet. He should have a notable size and strength advantage, so Palhares will have a tough time taking him down and keeping him down. Stylistically I think this is a great matchup for Nate. My main concern is that he may want to "prove himself" by fighting to his opponent's strength -- after the Maia fight, for example, he expressed disappointment that the fight never hit the ground (?!) for him to prove that he could roll with the best. I hope that was just talk.

[lasker]

Agree! I think the value is with Paul Harris. I think it's pretty even, Marquadt has stand up advantage but Paul Harris has a great chin so dont see Marquadt TKO or KOing him. Also Marquadt will be at a disadvantage with regard to grappling, obviously in BJJ, but Paul Harris' wrestling is also underated. Main thing here for me is the fact that Marquadt usually has size advantage on other fighters in middleweight division but will not be the case in this one - Harris is HUGE! Considering a small play on him or a straddle of Marquadt by decision and Palhares depending on the odds.

Palhares is not huge for MW, he could easily drop a weight class. He's one of the most undersized middleweights in the UFC, I think. Marquardt is going to have a significant size and (probably) strength advantage.

disagree, no way I would lay -200 with Nate here

hopefully you guys will drive up the price so I can get a better number on Palhares

I'm confident you'll be able to get a better number on Palhares right before the fight.

[illmatick]

Nate's shown chinks in his takedown defense in a few other fights as well.

not completley sure, but I think Thales Leites even took him down a few times...I still need to go back and re-watch the fight.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I'm watching tape on both right now... keep in mind I'm an admitted Palhares fan.

Lasker - Palhares isn't huge with respect to height, but he is big. That's why they call him Toquinho (Tree Stump). Dude is pretty ripped up at 185, I don't think he has 15 lbs he could cut. Maybe if he talked to Thiago Alves' nutritionist. Although, Nate will have a 5 inch height advantage, and 3 inch reach advantage here.

Ill - I watched the Nate vs Leites fight a few hours ago. From my notes, with respect to any type of Thales takedown:

Rd1... Thales actually dropped Nate with a strike to gain full mount. Nate worked to half guard, Thales got side control and Nate escaped.
Rd2... Very late in round 2 (only 15 sec left in the round), Nate attempts a very, for lack of a better term, ugly shoot on Thales, only to get sidestepped and taken down. Pretty ugly. Not due to any takedown skills of Thales; more due to a bumbling shot attempt by Nate.
Rd3... Nothing even remotely close to a takedown by Thales.

From that fight, one thing that would concern me if I'm betting on Marquardt was his willingness to jump into Leites' guard in order to work the GnP. That would be risky business if he tries that gameplan with Palhares because (1) Palhares is siiiick on the ground; far more impressive than Leites imho -- his transitions are smooth as butter and if you leave a limb exposed, he'll walk home with it, and (2) Palhares stand up is NOT impressive. At all. And like I said, I'm a fan of him, but his stand up technique is loose and frankly, not good. Kinda fun, as he'll throw spinning kicks to keep his opponents honest, but overall, not impressive stand up by any means.

One thing Palhares does have going for him is that, although he lacks traditional wrestling, he has an uncanny way of just getting it to the mat. His granite chin helps with this as he'll walk through a flurry of punches in order to get a hold of his opponent...

The other thing about Nate's stand up is that he likes to throw combos, and then use that momentum to force his opponent up against the cage to work the clinch, and I think that could backfire against Palhares, as Palhares does have a low base, and his strength is pretty solid (see his slam of Hendo). Marquardt needs to turn this into a kickboxing match and keep his distance from Rousimar.

Right now, I may just no-play this one, as this is a fight I'm really looking forward to regardless of whether or not I have any coin on it

GL fellas.

[LearningTree]

Palhares is a monster, he scares me, and I'll take him as a dog against anyone at MW.

[koscheckbaby]

I don't like Nate much, but he's a better fighter than Palhares. I will just watch and enjoy the fight either way, but I expect a domination from Nate. Just because Palhares picked up and slammed Hendo don't mean he has great takedowns or great wrestling. Hendo's MMA wrestling has never been that great and the rest of the fight was Hendo sprawling and beating the crap out of Palhares. Marquardt is capable of surviving on the ground with Palhares, but standing Nate will beat the crap out of Palhares. I see people been talking about going Palhares by submission or Marquardt by decision. Yes, Palhares has a great chin. But his cardio is poor and Nate's is surprisingly good. Nate could get the late TKO as Palhares is drained and Nate is still going strong.

Guys, remember this, Palhares isn't some God of BJJ. Marquardt beat the crap out of Dean Lister and Thales Leites, who are more proven grapplers than Palhares. Hell, he had no problem being in their guards. Palhares has struggled grappling with Jeremy Horn and Lucio Linhares. While both of them are good grapplers, they aren't Dean Lister or Thales Leites.

The best bet of this card is Gleison Tibau over Jim Miller. Both grapplers with Tibau being bigger, stronger, and a better one. Him being the dog is funny. Tibau does have a history of losing fights he should win, such as the Stevenson and Guillard fights, so don't go too heavy. But Tibau at underdog odds in this matchup is head scratching.

[KCJMAC]

Got Pearson by decision at +230 (30%) on 5 Dimes. I'm expecting something like the following:

20% Miller win by sub
30% Pearson win by TKO
45% Pearson win by decision
5% Other

[illmatick]

Ill - I watched the Nate vs Leites fight a few hours ago. From my notes, with respect to any type of Thales takedown:

Rd1... Thales actually dropped Nate with a strike to gain full mount. Nate worked to half guard, Thales got side control and Nate escaped.
Rd2... Very late in round 2 (only 15 sec left in the round), Nate attempts a very, for lack of a better term, ugly shoot on Thales, only to get sidestepped and taken down. Pretty ugly. Not due to any takedown skills of Thales; more due to a bumbling shot attempt by Nate.
Rd3... Nothing even remotely close to a takedown by Thales.

good stuff edu
I still need to go back and re-watch Nate vs Gouveia and Nate vs Lister

[Vaughany]

Got Pearson by decision at +230 (30%) on 5 Dimes. I'm expecting something like the following:

20% Miller win by sub
30% Pearson win by TKO
45% Pearson win by decision
5% Other

Thinking exactly the same! Is Miller by decision on 5 dimes yet?

[KCJMAC]

Yes, here's what they have right now:

UFC Fight Night 22 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Frank Erwin Center, Austin, Texas - SpikeTV

Wed 9/15 1301 Cole Miller +220
9:00PM 1302 Ross Pearson -260

Wed 9/15 1303 Miller/Pearson goes 3 round distance +130
8:00PM 1304 Fight won't go 3 round distance -170

Wed 9/15 1305 Miller wins inside distance +365
9:00PM 1306 Not Miller inside distance -555

Wed 9/15 1307 Miller wins by 3 round decision +540
9:00PM 1308 Not Miller by 3 round decision -1020

Wed 9/15 1309 Pearson wins inside distance +117
9:00PM 1310 Not Pearson inside distance -157

Wed 9/15 1311 Pearson wins by 3 round decision +218
9:00PM 1312 Not Pearson by 3 round decision -298

[Vaughany]

Yes, here's what they have right now:

UFC Fight Night 22 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Frank Erwin Center, Austin, Texas - SpikeTV

Wed 9/15 1301 Cole Miller +220
9:00PM 1302 Ross Pearson -260

Wed 9/15 1303 Miller/Pearson goes 3 round distance +130
8:00PM 1304 Fight won't go 3 round distance -170

Wed 9/15 1305 Miller wins inside distance +365
9:00PM 1306 Not Miller inside distance -555

Wed 9/15 1307 Miller wins by 3 round decision +540
9:00PM 1308 Not Miller by 3 round decision -1020

Wed 9/15 1309 Pearson wins inside distance +117
9:00PM 1310 Not Pearson inside distance -157

Wed 9/15 1311 Pearson wins by 3 round decision +218
9:00PM 1312 Not Pearson by 3 round decision -298

WOW +540! Id jump on tht! Straddle all the way with Tibau to win at +135

[sundin4prez]

going with Marquardt, tibau big and small play on cole miller and depending on odds a med-big play on Rich Attonito

[Educ8d Degener8]

WOW +540! Id jump on tht! Straddle all the way with Tibau to win at +135

I think you are crossing up the two Millers on this card mate...

[Vaughany]

I think you are crossing up the two Millers on this card mate...

ha **** yee, school boy error! I meant Jim Miller when I asked before about the decision prop! I'm so sure tht Pearson will win that I'd completely forgot tht it was Cole Miller fighting!

[snake11eyes]

lol. I was ready to jump all over that too. Then I kept reading. Jim Miller to decision is +194. I think Miller will win so I'll still play it, but it's not the same as +540.

[Tree Rollins]

I like Cole Miller over Pearson. Pearson hasn't impressed me at all, even during TUF.

[Vaughany]

I like Cole Miller over Pearson. Pearson hasn't impressed me at all, even during TUF.

Did u not see the Riley and Siver fights?!

[MMAJOE]

cole miller has some sick subs not bad underdog price at +230. he has to keep his chin down. he did get rocked bye stephens and dan lauzon but pulled it out after getting rocked.

[Vrakas]

pearson is a monster at 155.

[Shane]

Yeah, I don't see Cole Miller beating Pearson.

[Vaughany]

How can you not bet on the Brazilian version of the Incredible Hulk!...

http://i40.tinypic.com/b7jf2w.gif