Phil "Mr. Wonderful" Davis vs Rodney "Sho Nuff the Master" Wallace features a battle of two of the best nicknames in the UFC. I'd have to give the edge to Wallace in that department. But that's not why I'm choosing him here.
Let me be clear: Phil Davis will probably win this fight. You'd have to be crazy not to think so. He's a former Division I NCAA wrestling champion, he has excellent jiu-jitsu, and he is 2-0 in the UFC. Wallace, by contrast, has more of a background in football than wrestling (although he is a three-time North Carolina state champion in wrestling), has decent boxing and jiu jitsu, but really doesn't stand out in any one area of the game. And he is 0-2 in the UFC. They share a common opponent, Brian Stann, but Davis beat him by decision whereas Wallace lost to him via razor-thin decision.
Yes, Davis is the better fighter. But he is as short as -700 on 5dimes. The Pinnacle odds are Davis -650 against Wallace +500. Really? Should "Mr. Wonderful" be favored by this much? He's as much of a favorite as Randy Couture against James Toney -- Toney, a fighter with ZERO experience in MMA, facing a five-time UFC champion in two different weight classes! And here we're giving Davis, a fighter with only two UFC fights and only six fights total, the same odds to win as Couture over Toney? Against an opponent who has also only had two UFC fights?
Frankly, there are still too many unknowns. We don't know how Wallace will fight with his back against the wall -- after all, one more loss and he's out. This is also the first time Wallace faces an opponent who's a heavy favorite to beat him. How hard is he training? How motivated will he be? We don't know how seriously Davis is taking his opponent. We also don't know if the short notice will affect him.
Davis is such a heavy favorite because of skills, but also because of hype. There is an insane amount of hype pushing the Davis train right now, and I just haven't seen enough to buy into it yet. It has happened very often that a much-hyped prospect fails to live up to the expectations. The most recent example was Todd Duffee's shocking KO loss to Russow at UFC 114.
It's possible that Davis will go in there and absolutely destroy Wallace one minute into the first round. It's likely that he'll win a very one-sided fight. It's possible that Wallace is not so "Sho Nuff the Master" after all. But Wallace is a fighter who was undefeated upon entering the UFC, a fighter who has won by submission and TKO and decision, a fighter who displayed great heart -- even in a loss -- in his Fight of the Night performance against Hamman, and a fighter with his back up against the wall who needs to do everything in his power to shock the world.
Also, let's not forget that Davis took this fight on very short notice -- only two weeks in advance. Quite frankly, I'll take almost any UFC fighter @+500 when his opponent is on such short notice. All the more so in a bout between two opponents with such limited experience inside the Octagon. The bet will probably lose, but Wallace definitely warrants a small play at these odds. Good luck!
*note: the +500 odds are available on Pinnacle. But if you're American, Wallace @+450 is still a value bet.
